Updates to Chapter 3 of the Modelling and Mapping Manual and other activities

Transcription

1 Updates to Chapter 3 of the Modelling and Mapping Manual and other activities Harry Harmens and Gina Mills (ICP Vegetation, CEH Bangor, UK) * Supported by Defra (UK), NERC (UK) & UNECE

2 27 th ICP Vegetation TFM, Paris January 2014, Paris. Hosted by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), in collaboration with AgroParisTech, INRA, Muséum national d Histoire naturelle (MNHN) and Université Paris-Est Creteil (UPEC) 84 experts from 22 countries attended the meeting 28 January: one-day ozone critical levels workshop to review current status and make recommendations for amendments to Chapter 3 of the Modelling and Mapping Manual: Mapping critical levels for vegetation. Discussion continued during TFM.

3 Revisions main text Chapter 3 (1) No changes to the existing critical levels New references included where ozone response functions and supporting evidence for ozone critical levels have been published Text related to integrated assessment modelling (Section ) updated: o New terminology for the simplified generic ozone flux POD Y IAM will replace POD Y gen (POD Y = Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a flux threshold of Y nmol m -2 s -1 )

4 Revisions main text Chapter 3 (2) New POD 3 IAM effect relationship for use in integrated assessment modelling at European scale only (for effects of ozone on wheat, 90 d exposure period) Critical level: 8 mmol m -2 (representing 5% yield decline) For use in scenario analysis and optimisation runs within GAINS to provide indication of potential effects on wheat yield under non-limiting water availability Two parameterisations flux model: 1) Northern & Central Europe, 2) Mediterrannean areas (as defined in the M&M Manual)

5 Revisions Annexes Chapter 3 Crops: Parameterisations flux model for grapevine, maize, soybean and sunflower Revised Mediterranean flux parameterisation for wheat (bread and durum wheat) References to additional published flux models for local-scale application in the Mediterranean region for bean, barley and tomato Trees: Parameterisation ozone flux model for poplar (Semi-)natural vegetation: Reference to additional published flux model for local-scale application for Cocksfoot (Dactylis glomerata)

6 Ozone Ozone and & food security In 2000, ozone reduced wheat yield by 14%, loss of 3.2 billion in EU27+CH+NO (Mills and Harmens, 2011; full wheat flux model) GP2005 GP CLE 2020 GP CLE2030 Revised Gothenburg Protocol: Mean yield loss* (%) for 27+NO+CH: 12.4% for GP2005, 10.3% for GP CLE2020 * Generic crop flux model (IAM), assumes no water limitation Data included in Guidance Document for Environmental Improvements (ECE/EB.AIR/2013/8)

7 ÉCLAIRE Iceland Mills, UK Faroe Islands Shetland Lewis Auchencorth Harwell

8 Literature review ozone in ECLAIRE database 216 papers in the database Seven categories of vegetation Reduced to three broader categories for the purpose of analysis Crops Bog/fen/wetland Grassland Coniferous trees Deciduous trees Mixed trees Other Crops Trees Other veg

9 relative biomass Crops relative biomass: preliminary results 1,2 1 0,8 y = x + 1 R² = 0.38 p value = ,6 0,4 0,2 0 LEITAO OLLERE CARDOS AKHTAR PLESSL BARNES BOOKER CARDOS ozone daylight (ppb) Meta analysis indicates a 25% to 45% decrease in plant biomass at a ozone daylight level of 100 ppb (relative to carbon-filtered air)

10 relative biomass Other veg. relative biomass: preliminary results 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 y = x + 1 R² = 0.08 p value = , ozone daylight (ppb) E1 Gimeno E2 Hayes E2 Ramo E3 Franza D1 Toet E1 Gimeno E2 Hayes

11 Photosynthesis preliminary results CROPS Net photosynthetic rate: - Significant decline with increase in daylight ozone (cereals) A sat (light-saturated rate of net photosynthesis): - Significant decline with increase in daylight ozone - Non-cereals more affected than cereals V cmax (maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylase activity): - Significant decline with increase in daylight ozone OTHER VEGETATION No significant effects of ozone on photosynthesis (wide confidence intervals due to lack of data; only 3 papers)

12 Smart phone App. Recording incidences of leaf ozone injury Smart-phone App. linked to ICP Vegetation web site Location on interactive map

13 Smart phone App. set up Registration Level of experience Permission to use data Date and location Broad vegetation type & species (crops, trees, grassland, heathland, wetland & coastal) Upload photos Symptoms of ozone injury Evidence of other injury Weather Ozone pollution (if known)

14 Ozone injury brochure

15 EECCA/SEE and South-East Asia report With contributions from: CCE (critical loads data & maps) EMEP/MSC-West (ozone flux and concentration) EMEP/MSC-East (HM and POPs data and maps) SEI-York (South-East Asia)

16 EMEP monitoring stations Lack of stations in SEE and EECCA region Also true for effects monitoring

17 Nitrogen CLoad exceedance N Cload exceedance generally higher in Western & Central Europe Improvements generally lower in EECCA countries

18 Risk of ozone damage to forests Concentration-based Flux-based South-East Europe at highest risk * Flux-based: assumes no water limitation

19 Modelled deposition and CLoad exceedance Cd Pb Hg

20 European moss survey Coordination European Moss Survey transferred to the Russian Federation: Marina Frontasyeva, JINR, Dubna: Extending participation EECCA countries Next European moss survey in 2015/16

21 Medium-term workplan (1) Annual activities: Report on supporting evidence for ozone impacts on vegetation Report on progress with the moss survey 2015/2016 Contributions to common workplan items of the WGE 2015: Report on implications of rising background ozone for vegetation in Europe Report on the interacting effects ozone and N and climatic stresses on vegetation Tentatively for 2016: Report on field-based evidence of ozone impacts on vegetation Report on ozone impacts on biodiversity Ozone critical levels workshop

22 Medium-term workplan (2) Tentatively for 2017: Report on revised ozone risk assessments methods Revision of Chapter 3 of the Modelling and Mapping Manual Final report of the European moss survey 2015/ th ICP Vegetation Task Force meeting, first week of February 2015, Rome Thank you for your attention!