Madeleine Strum & Alison Eyth 2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop Technical Methods and Applications Boulder, CO July 9, 2013

Transcription

1 Madeleine Strum & Alison Eyth 2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop Technical Methods and Applications Boulder, CO July 9, 2013

2 2011 NEI Status 2011 Version 1 NEI process to date Categories of Interest Caveats (missing sectors, known issues, etc.) 2011-based Modeling Platform Status Plans and timing Updated data and methods Collaboration and next steps 2

3 2011 NEI version 1 schedule: Late July EIS release (onroad in August) September Public (website) release Fall 2013 Draft documentation NEI primarily relies on state-submitted data, but augments with EPA data in some cases: Electric Generating Unit data from Clean Air Markets Division, Mercury and Air Toxics Standards Augmentation datasets for missing PM species, HAPs Locomotives and commercial marine Airports (aircraft, ground support, auxiliary power units) Numerous nonpoint categories where not reported by states/locals Oil and gas via EPA oil and gas tool is new for 2011 Biogenic emissions from BEIS v3.14 Developed using the Emission Inventory System (EIS) 3

4 Accessible to registered users Repository for emissions (input/output) Point Nonpoint Onroad Nonroad Events Edits/adds only during window openings Generates the NEI Reports to get the data out Training on 2011 NEI planning web page 4

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6 EIS Reports by Geography- Aggregations

7 Quality Assurance Check EIS Automated QA checks of codes and data integrity PM 10 must be greater or equal to PM 2.5 EIS automated check Completeness and Outlier checks comparing to 2008 NEI PM review and augmentation Missing boiler pollutant check (point) Lead (Pb) Review Lat-lon comparison to county boundaries Release type/parameter checks Mercury & HAP emissions augmentation Status Done Done Done Done Done Done Done Done Ongoing 7

8 2011 NEI Planning documentation available from Overview of activities and schedule for 2011 release Provides QA routines, EIS system changes from 2008, and background on 2011 EPA estimates for select nonpoint, mobile and fire source categories NEI data will be available in similar format to 2008 See the 2008 NEI data website for an example: Data also available in EIS; reports can done at different geographies and resolution Modeling data will be made available in Flat File 2010 (FF10) format used for EIS-based inventories Timing: late summer 8

9 Data/tools posted on planning page Used to gap fill where states do not submit data Agricultural Fertilizer CMU Ammonia Model v3.6, adjusted fertilizer activity using 2010 data (2002 is the base year for the CMU model) Agricultural Livestock waste 2008 pulled forward without adjustment emissions from CMU Ammonia Model Version 3.6 and adjusting for changes in animal population using the 2007 Census of Agriculture Residential Wood Combustion Grown from 2008 based on more recent data, 2008 method presented in NEI conf paper ( 9

10 Onroad First time MOVES activity data/inputs obtained directly from states Using SMOKE-MOVES to generate NEI for most states MOVES county databases (CDBs) received from more than 30 agencies including: Idaho, Oregon, Washington, 2 NV local agencies, Utah, Alaska, EMFAC-based emissions for California (per their submittal) Nonroad Using NMIM (NONROAD) with inputs collected from the states NMIM county databases (NCDs) received from more than 12 agencies including: Idaho and Nevada Using California-submitted emissions 10

11 Category 1 and 2 Small/medium diesel vessels, known as C1/C2 NEI will have blend of EPA (top-down) & state data States had to submit emissions at shape level for counties that had them Working on improving spatial allocation method for EPA data 2011 includes emissions in Gulf for support vessels Category 3 (big ships) - C3 CMV Blend EPA and state data EPA data based on EPA s ECA-IMO inventory- rule development inventory (Emission Control Area - International Maritime Organization) 11

12 Oil & Gas (nonpoint only) CA CO UT WY Res. Wood Combust. CA ID* OR UT* WA Clark C1C2 (diesel) CMV CA** OR WA Ag Tilling CA ID Maricopa Animal Husbandry CA ID UT Clark Fertilizer Application CA WA Paved Road CA CO ID WA Clark Maricopa Unpaved Road CA CO UT* Clark Maricopa Construction Dust CA ID WA Clark Maricopa -Ten tribal submittals not shown -Western States with no submittals for these sources: MT, NM, NV, ND, SD *Originally submitted but requested we not use or equivalent to EPA data **Still working on issues 12

13 2008 Offshore platform emissions used 2011 ready in December Top-down approach for CMV emissions and allocation methods for tugs and ferries needs improvement- may overestimate emissions in some parts of the country An issues list will be posted with the public release 13

14 Initial version based on 2011 NEI v1 Used for Transport Rule, O3 NAAQS RIA, 2011 NATA, Aiming for consistency, but expect a few differences between modeling platform inventories and the NEI (e.g., Great Lakes CMV) Future year(s) for platform not yet determined Will use 2011 NEI v1 for fires (Tesh will discuss) Will use SMOKE/MOVES approach for onroad emissions, with state inputs where provided and EPA defaults otherwise CA to use EMFAC-based emissions Non-NEI emissions included in the platform are: Canada 2006 Canada plans to provide us with 2010 and future year emissions, eventually Mexico 2012 (projected from 1999) For projects using CMAQ 5.x, Lightning NO X & Soil NH 3 Flux approaches can be incorporated 14

15 Emissions modeling converts annual (or monthly) point- or county-based inventories into hourly emissions by model grid cell, in a format the air quality model can use SMOKE is the emissions model used by EPA: Future Year Projected Emissions Models used include IPM for EGUs, SMOKE-MOVES, NMIM/NONROAD Other sectors done manually when factors are available TBD approaches for Residential Wood Combustion and oil & gas EPA posts emissions platform data, once available, on the CHIEF Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse Includes inventory and some activity data Ancillary data for speciation and spatial and temporal allocation 15

16 EPA provided opportunities for states to collaborate on emissions to be used for 2011 and transport modeling Q&A and more from state outreach process posted on EMCH Updated information on MOVES received from 12 states Comments on NEEDS database (primary input to IPM) received from 35 commenters EPA held RPO technical coordination calls in March and June (more are planned) EPA staff participate in several RPO workgroups EPA interested in others using the 2011 NEI for modeling efforts and getting feedback on it Feedback could be incorporated into future versions of the 2011 NEI that may be used for the final Transport Rule & Ozone NAAQS platforms, etc. 16

17 SMOKE-MOVES integration being used for regulatory projects withthe 2011 platform Benefits of SMOKE-MOVES: Provides hourly, speciated, gridded emissions for the AQM Takes advantage of hourly meteorological changes and sub-county variability (especially important for PM + VOC) Provides greater transparency between MOVES and emissions modeling (e.g., exposed activity data) Allows NEI to be consistent with regulatory runs Has computational advantages via the use of representative counties, works with cloud computing There are differences between running MOVES directly to compute inventories versus running with SMOKE-MOVES Due to different input data resolutions (e.g., temperatures, activity data) and SCC mapping issues 17

18 SMOKE-MOVES Representative County Groups 18

19 Meteorology-based temporal allocation methods for residential wood combustion and ammonia from animal husbandry A SMOKE preprocessor (GenTPRO) reads the met. data and is used to develop temporal allocation factors by month, day, and/or hour First used in 2007 platform The SMOKE Temporal processor then uses the met-based factors to temporalize the emissions RWC daily temporalization PM2.5 (tons/day) new method old method 19

20 Spatial surrogates are used to allocate nonpoint and mobile sources to grid cells Census data-based surrogates were updated with 2010 census data Surrogates based on FEMA HAZUS data (e.g., Industrial Land, Commercial + Industrial) are updated with Circa 2010 data Other updates include: Agriculture, TIGER-Line data (e.g. roads), etc. Western oil & gas basins Northeast Region IHS-based oil & gas Commercial Marine Vessels in Great Lakes and Gulf 20

21 A recently-developed fire-averaging tool and methodology is available for use in modeling projects Leverages available SMARTFIRE2-based point daily fires Using latest SPECIATE database, Version 4.3 New Speciation Tool creates profiles for CMAQ 5.0 Expect public release this summer Other recent updates Updated fugitive dust transport fractions approach takes land use and soil moisture into account Use of lightning NO X in CMAQ 5.0 (new source of emissions) Use of soil NH 3 flux in CMAQ

22 Improving onroad mobile (& other sector) temporalization using more state-provided data Improving base year (NEI) controls information & industrial non-egu projections Updating biogenic land use and emissions factors (ORD) Obtaining updated Canada/Mexico (base and future) Updating methods for estimating Oil and Gas emissions and speciation in base & future years Improving methods for RWC emissions (base and future) Local area projections: change out rates, working w/ Regions on details AQI-based burn bans: may implement in baseline projections Continue to integrate Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS) data into SmartFire (SF2) to improve ID & classification of fires Reviewing stack parameters for reasonableness 22

23 There were many contributors! Especially: Emissions Modeling Team: Rich Mason, Alexis Zubrow Data Analysis Team: Venkatesh Rao, Lee Tooly, Josh Drukenbrod, Rhonda Thompson NEI Team: Ron Ryan, Laurel Driver, Roy Huntley, Jennifer Snyder, Sally Dombrowski EIAG Group Leader: Marc Houyoux AQMG: Norm Possiel, Brian Timin, Kirk Baker ORD: George Pouliot, Jesse Bash 23