Setting the Scientific Stage

Transcription

1 Chapter One Setting the Scientific Stage I. The Deep History of the Earth 3 II. The Progression of Climate Science 16 III. Where We Are Now 26 A. An Urgent Present 26 B. Joint Science Academies Statement: Global Response to Climate Change (2005) 29 C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 32 D. Science and the Supreme Court 60 E. The Law-Science Interface Science in the Bureaucracy: Suppress, Manipulate, Modify and Spin 73 a. NASA (National Aeronautics & Space Administration) 73 b. NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) 74 c. CEQ (Council on Environmental Quality) 74 d. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) 77 e. The 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 79 f. John Grant on Lysenkoism 80 g. Union of Concerned Scientists: Big Tobacco Uncertainty Tactics 80 h. Drawing the Lines The Use of Daubert Motions Legal Retaliation Against a Strategy of Fictionalization of Global Warming Science 83 Chapter Two The Justice of Transformative Change and the Spread of Global Fever I. When, Where, and How: A Simple Matter of Six Degrees 108 A. One Degree 109 B. Two Degrees 109 C. Three Degrees 112 D. Four Degrees 113 E. Five Degrees 114 F. Six Degrees 114 II. Justice in a Warmer World 115 A. Generally 115 B. Perspectives of Law International Law 130 a. Intergenerational Equity 130 b. International Human Rights Law 139 c. Elaborations of Law 165 1

2 2 CONTENTS III. Transformation of the Arctic: The Barometer of Indigenous Peoples 179 A. Baseline 2002: Traditional Ecological Knowledge 179 B. Baseline 2004: The Old Arctic 181 C Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 183 D. Eyewitnesses to History: Loss of Ice 185 E. The Polar Bear 192 F. The New Grave-Robbers 200 G. Global Warming Remedies in the Arctic Indian Trust Doctrine Civil Rights Act / Environmental Justice Aboriginal Rights Subsistence Rights Treaty Rights Petition to International Bodies Common Law Muddling Through with Partial Help from State and Federal Aid Programs The Alien Tort Claims Act and the Small Island Nations 237 Chapter Three The Health of the Planet: The Atmosphere, the Earth, the Sea, the Residents I. Introduction 243 II. A Human Future 245 III. The Atmosphere, Oceans, and Climate: Supporting Services or Blanket of Life? 260 A. Ecosystem Services 261 B. Biodiversity 275 IV. The Carbon Cycle 294 A. The Oceans 295 B. The Forests 296 V. The Earth s Waters 298 A. The Oceans 298 B. Freshwater Ecosystems 359 VI. The Earth s Terrestrial Surfaces 422 A. Public Lands 422 B. Forests 441 C. Rangelands 453 D. Farmlands 460 VII. Fire and Flood 477 A. Fire and the Health of the Lands 477 B. Floods & Storms Small Island States Hurricane Katrina Flood Insurance 504

3 CONTENTS 3 Chapter Four Reconstructed Energy Futures I. Introduction 511 A. Global Warming and the Resource Curse 512 B. The Fork in the Road What We Did Not Do What We Did 522 II. Finite-Resource Fuels 547 A. Coal 547 B. Oil & Natural Gas 654 C. Nuclear 710 III. Renewables 721 A. Energy Efficiency 722 B. Dismantling the Grid 726 C. Wind Power 730 D. Solar Power 732 E. Geothermal 733 F. Hydrogen 733 G. Biofuels 734 H. Ocean Energy 734 I. Hydropower 735 IV. Energy Security 736 Chapter Five Framing the Climate Change Debate Framing Global Climate Change 741 Chapter Six United States Response to Climate Change I. The Political Environment: The Deep History of Denial 798 A. The Rejection of Kyoto 798 B. Denial by the Bush II Administration 800 C. Interference with Government Scientists 802 D. President Obama s Plans 803 II. Congressional Action 809 A. Past Proposals: Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act 809

4 4 CONTENTS 1. Viewpoints on the Act Climate Principles 824 B. Future Proposals: A Framework for Evaluating U.S. Climate Change Policy 825 III. Climate Policy Architecture 837 A. Public Opinion 837 B. Economic Considerations 840 C. The Astonishing Stern Review 850 D. Other Views Lomborg Hodas Pierce Driesen 859 E. Alternatives to Cap and Trade 859 F. Energy Subsidies 861 G. Rethinking Today s Market Economy 864 H. Regulated Entities Federalism Individuals & Big Emitters Revisiting the Politics of Regulation 873 a. The Elusiveness of Truth: The Example of Offshore Oil Drilling 873 b. The Importance of Process: Conducting a Hearing 877 c. Memories of Deregulation 878 IV. Adaptation 880 V. Technology: Do We Have What It Takes? 894 Chapter Seven The International Law and Policy of Climate Change I. Introduction to International Climate Change Policy 911 A. Establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 911 B. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The Kyoto Protocol The Bali Roadmap 914 C. The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize: Al Gore and the IPCC Al Gore Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, Oslo, December 10, Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Delivered by R.K. Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC, Oslo, December 10, 2007 (excerpt) 921 II. Kyoto: Too Little, Too Soon 926 III. The Significance of Copenhagen 940 IV. What Comes Next? The New Geopolitics of Climate Change 940 A. National Security Concerns 940 V. The Role of Developing Nations in Climate Change 944 A. India 944

5 CONTENTS 5 B. Africa 967 C. China 988 VI. The Search for a New International Law That Works 1007 A. The Enforcement of International Climate Change Law 1009 B. A Theory of Atmospheric Trust Litigation 1018 VII. International Environmental Law 1041 VIII. Adaptation to Climate Change 1055 A. Climate Refugees 1057 Chapter Eight Local, State, Regional, Tribal and Private Climate Change Initiatives I. Introduction 1061 A. The Impossibility Theorem 1061 B. The Faking-It Theorem 1062 C. The Futility Theorem 1064 D. No-Regrets Policy 1067 E. The Laboratory Theorem 1067 II. Local Initiatives 1069 A. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement 1069 B. Mayors Climate Performance Initiative 1070 III. State Initiatives 1074 A. Why the States? 1074 B. What Have the States Done? Introduction Particulars of State Programs 1091 a. State Climate Action Plans 1092 b. Renewable Portfolio Standards 1094 c. Regulation of Coal-Fired Power Plants 1096 d. State Automobile Emission Standards 1100 e. More on the California Experience Other State Responses on Urgent Issues of Climate Change Scholarship: State Action and Beyond 1148 IV. Regional Initiatives 1149 V. Tribal Initiatives 1151 A. Introduction 1151 B. Tribes and Climate 1156 VI. Private Initiatives: Global Warming and the Individual 1169

6 6 CONTENTS Chapter Nine Legal Initiatives Designed to Turn the Tide on Climate Change I. Introduction CD-3 II. Helpful Typologies: Gerrard and Meltz CD-5 III. The Principal Domestic U.S. Legal Foci: Clean Air Act, NEPAs and SEPAs, Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Energy Laws, Coal-Plant Challenges, and Common Law CD-7 A. Clean Air Act CD-7 1. Massachusetts v. EPA CD-7 2. Progeny of Massachusetts v. EPA: Action-Forcing Petitions under the Clean Air Act CD-11 a. Nonroad Vehicles and Engines CD-11 b. Aircraft and Vessels CD-12 B. NEPA and SEPAs CD-15 C. Endangered Species Act and the Marine Mammal Protection Act CD The Statutory Framework CD Thinking through Responses CD Legal Initiatives CD-57 a. Kittlitz s Murrelet and the Elkhorn and Staghorn Corals CD-57 b. The Polar Bear Petition CD-60 D. Energy Statutes and the CAFE Standards CD Energy Policy Conservation Act CD National Environmental Policy Act CD-66 E. Coal-Plant Challenges CD-70 F. Common Law CD Elaborations of Kivalina CD The Common Law of Hurricanes CD-96 IV. Petitions for Government Initiatives CD-99 A. The SEC Disclosure Petition CD Current Forms of Climate Change Disclosure CD The 2007 SEC Climate Change Disclosure Petition CD-115 B. Shareholder Proposals CD-128 C. The Ocean Acidification Petitions to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Coastal States CD Federal Petition CD State Petitions CD-137 D. Exxon Valdez Reopener Petition CD-139 V. The Practice of Law CD-145 A. Corporate Responses CD-145 B. Insurance Industry Responses CD-155