IEEJ:June 2016 IEEJ2016 IEEJ 50 th / APERC30 th Anniversary Joint Symposium Lessons from Japan s Energy Mix Debate and its Relevance to the World Asia

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1 IEEJ 50 th / APERC30 th Anniversary Joint Symposium Lessons from Japan s Energy Mix Debate and its Relevance to the World Asia/World Energy Outlook Yukari Yamashita The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) 27 May 2016 Tokyo, Japan

2 Three Policy Targets to be Achieved Energy Mix (Demand & Supply Outlook) : public comment process (until 1 July) To secure Safety + 3E of Japan s energy demand and supply : Foremost condition: safety (Safety) 1. Improved self sufficiency (about 25%) (Energy Security) 2. Lower electricity costs (Economic Efficiency) 3. Set a GHG reduction target and lead the world (Environment) 1. Self Sufficiency 3. CO2 Emission Decrease Max Renewable Less Coal, Use LNG 2. Electricity Costs Decrease Use Renewable More Coal, Less LNG Source: from documents discussed at the Long-term Energy Outlook Sub Committee, 10 th Session (1 st June 2015) 2

3 Power Tariff Rose by % JPY/Month Average Household s Power Tariff Trend (TEPCO service area) November 2013 $79 /month March 2011 $63 /month $16 (+26%) Increase after Fukushima Source: Follow-up on Meetings of Industry Competitiveness (Nov. 2013) 3

4 Security Impact Increased Uncertainties Higher Oil Dependency than after Oil Crises Ukraine 35,000 30,000 万 kl 一次石油危機 二次石油危機 95% Dependency on Middle East 中東依存度 87% 90% Dependency on Russian Gas <Reference> Japan s Dependency on Russia 88% 25,000 20,000 15,000 78% 85% 80% 2013FY:84% 75% (Source) The Financial Times, April 4, (Source) Resource Energy Yearbook, Trade Statistics 10,000 70% 71% 68% 5,000 65% 原油輸入量 0 60% Iraq, Middle East Instability South China Sea Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea Unclear 先行き不透明な Middle East 中東和平問題 Peace Pact Situation of inside イラク戦争後の & outside of Iraq after the イラク内外情勢 war イラン核開発問題を巡る国際関係の緊張 シェール革命の経済 政治的インパクト International tension surrounding the Iranian nuclear development issues Economic & Political Impacts of Shale O&G (Source) The Wall Street Journal, 2014 May 9 (Japanese Web) アラブイスラム社会に広がる米国への不満 反発 Increasing Dissatisfaction in Arab-Islam Society against USA Factors of instability of current governments & アラブの春による中東 governance in Middle の現政権 体制を巡る East induced by the Arab Spring. 不安定要因 Risks of Terrorism 石油施設に対する Activity Against テロ活動の危険性 Petroleum Facilities 4

5 Bad Influence on Macro Economy: National Wealth Loss and Hollow Out of Industries Zero brought bad influence on Japanese Economy (FY2013 case) Zero 原発ゼロ 原発稼動をゼロにすると 化石燃料による代替が不可避となり 燃料費が約 3.6 兆円増加し 電力料金の大幅上昇につながる これは 一方で国富の流出となり 貿易 経常収支を悪化させるとともに 企業の収益 活動の低下をもたらし 雇用環境を数十万人規模で悪化させ 法人税収の低下を招く Increase 対 2010 by 年比 3.6 trillion JPY from 約 兆円増加 Increased 家計負担 Cost for Household 1.2 約 trillion 1.2 兆円 JPY Fossil Fuel Increase 化石燃料増加 約 18% 18% higher 上昇 ( 世帯当たり約 13,000 円増 ) GDP の 0.8% の国富流出 約 JPY/kWh 円 /kwh higher 上昇 Weaker Power 国際競争力の電力料金 Tariff Hike 低下上昇 International 約 24% 上昇 Competitiveness 24% higher Increased 企業負担 Cost for ( Industries 小口含む ) 2.4 約 trillion 2.4 兆円 JPY Transfer 工場の of Lower 収益低下 Profit Factories 海外移転 Abroad 約 万人分 Million Labor Force に相当雇用環境 Unemployment 悪化 Loss 約 1 of 兆円減少 1 trillion JPY 製造業の 70% が国際競争力が大きく減少すると回答 ( 経団連調査 ) 0.8% of GDP will be transferred abroad Reduced Corporate Tax 法人税収減 Revenue 悪循環 Vicious Circle 約 Loss 2.4 of 兆円減少 2.4 trillion JPY Worsening of Trade 貿易 経常収 & Current Balances 支悪化 Dual Deficit 双子の赤字 Worsening 財政収支 of Budgetary 悪化 Balance Source: IEEJ

6 Energy Supply Diversity & Self Sufficiency Renewable Hydro Natural Gas Coal Oil 1 st Oil Crisis 2 nd Oil Crisis Primary Energy Supply Trend of Japan ( ) Natural Gas Coal Oil 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro Renewable 1st Oil Crisis 2nd Oil Crisis 24 % 24 % % Japan s Self Sufficiency Transition % Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Renewable Renewable Renewable Primary Energy Supply - Renewable : 13-14% - : 11-10% 6

7 Energy Efficiency to be Improved Drastically Energy Efficiency Improvement (Final Consumption / real GDP) 35% Improvement From 2013 to2030 Economic Growth (1.7%/year) Maximum EE Improvement (50 mil KL, 13%) Source: from documents discussed at the Long-term Energy Outlook Sub Committee, 10 th Session (1 st June 2015) N.B: EE stands for Energy Efficiency 7

8 Primary Energy World Primary Energy Supply (By Energy) Fossil Fuels: 77% Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook

9 Electricity Consumption by Region (World) Reference Adv. Tech TWh 18% ,770 Amount of increase from 2013 to ,118TWh % 3,076 17% ,301 22% 7% 9% Asia North America Europe Others Others Europe N.America Asia 15% 15% 22% 22% 50% 41% Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook

10 Can Germany's Abandoning Power Provide a Lesson? 92.3 TWh renewables out of TWh total generation in Germany Electricity generation % Efficiency gains until very ambitious assumptions and cornerstones underlying the energy scenarios Electricity demand Imports to Germany Decrease of generation in Germany by half Generation in Germany Tripling the generation from renewables Non renewable generation Renewable generation = 80% of German generation TWh renewables out of TWh total generation Source: Bruttostromerzeugung gemäß Tabelle A I-7, Szenario II A, Energieszenarien EWI, GWS, Prognos

11 IPCC 5 th Assessment Report v.s. IEEJ Outlook Gt Fossil CO 2 emissions RCP6.0 ( ppm category) RCP2.6 (450ppm category) RCP4.5 ( ppm categories) GtCO 2 50 Reference Adv. Technologies Below Zero Adv. Tech. +CCS % reduction By 省エネルギー バイオ燃料 太陽光 風力等 原子力 燃料転換 CCS Energy saving Biofuel Wind, solar, etc. Fuel switching CCS Reference Adv. Tech. +CCS 50% reduction by レファレンス 技術進展 +CCS 年半減 Calculated using MAGICC 6.0 Meinshausen, M., S. C. B. Raper and T. M. L. Wigley (2011). "Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part I Model Description and Calibration." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11: IEEJ: Asia/World Energy Outlook

12 Conclusion Energy security is essential and macro and direct economic impacts are the keys for every country. Robust, lean, smart, efficient, advanced, AND DIVERSIFIED energy use (supply) makes a difference. Diversified energy type & diversified energy suppliers (countries). Establishment of regional security brings added values. Energy imbalance may have big macro economic implications. The global energy market is full of UNCERTAINTIES.AND changes come rather fast Learning both success and failure from international experiences is useful. Global warming cannot be solved by a single country and innovative technologies are essential for bigger reduction. 12

13 Asia/World Energy Outlook IEEJ s Asia/World Energy Outlook 2015 is available at Contact :report@tky