1. Outline. 1. Dialogue inter WGIII. 2. Dialogue with WGII. Goal: reduce the dimensionality of the problem

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1 1. Outline 1. Dialogue inter WGIII Exploring the impact of climate change on mitigation capacity Exploring the equity, efficiency, political acceptability space 2. Dialogue with WGII Alternative storylines that deliver the same level of radiative forcing Goal: reduce the dimensionality of the problem 1

2 2. WITCH and the RCPs 9 8 TOTAL RADIATIVE FORCING (W/m2) MESSAGE - RCP 8.5 AIM - RCP MiniCAM - RCP 4.5 IMAGE - RCP3- PD (2.6) BaU Scenario 2

3 3. Impacts on mitigation capacity 1. Climate change feedback on the economy Standard damage function Extensive work to have a new generation impact model (CLI-EMA, GLOBAL-IQ, YALE-FEEM Partnership) Cost-benefit for fine-tuning of climate policy 2. Adaptation and Mitigation Endogenous adaptative capacity 3. Impact of climate change on mitigation capacity 3

4 4. Damage function - global Percentage Change of Gross World Product Global mean temperature ( C) above pre-industrial level UNFCCC WITCH Low Damage WITCH High Damage MERGE 4

5 5. Damage function - regional Regional Damage Functions Percentage loss in GDP Time horizon EASIA LACA CHINA SASIA SSA MENA TE CAJAZ KOSAU NEWEURO OLDEURO USA + 2.5ºC - WITCH high damage function 5

6 6. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development Mitigation capacity high low 6 low medium Climate change impacts high

7 7. New impact model Joint work with Robert Mendelsohn at Yale University Regional impacts on most sensitive sectors integrated into a single framework Compatible with most IAMs 7

8 8. Impact as % of US land value 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% BCM2 CGHR FGOALS GFCM20 GFCM21 GIAOM GIER HADCM3 INCM3 IPCM4 MIHR MIMR MPEH5 MRCGCM NCCCSM SRES B ºC in

9 9. Adaptive capacity in WITCH 9

10 10. Equity-efficiency Robustness of incentives Coalitions' stability Analysis of second-best policy tools Sub-regional markets (or non uniform carbon pricing) vs domestic carbon taxes or global carbon markets Are the scenarios that we draw plausible from a climate policy point of view? 10

11 11. Potential for cost-benefit analysis 3.50 S S S5 S4 S8 S2 S3 S1 S no Temperature CCS reference rise in 2100 negative (C) emissions 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.50 GDP losses in NPV (at 5% d.r.) 11 Extremely important for the analysis of coalition stability

12 12. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development Coalition stability high low 12 low medium Climate change impacts high

13 13. Implications of carbon taxes 13 tco2-eq per capita a 1a 2a 2b 2c 3a 3b China India Sasia Easia Oecd World

14 14. A three-dimensional matrix Equity Political acceptability (coalition stability) high low Efficiency 14 low medium high

15 15. Dialogue with WGII community The "political feasibility" filter would restrict very much the group of relevant SSPs Focus on SSPs that create a significant variation of a few key variables (GDP, level and distribution, technological progress ) for any (policy relevant) level of radiative forcing 15

16 16. The Rose Project Scenarios developed in the ROSE project => compare effects of different assumptions on 1. Fossil fuel resources (oil, gas, coal) 2. GDP growth and convergence 3. Population growth 1800 Primary energy 1600 EJ G10M_MMM G8S_MMM G14S_HP_MMM G12F_MMM G11FSC_MMM

17 17. Alternative scenarios - Pashmina EU FP7 PASHMINA Project - Scenario 1: Growing beyond limits: featuring the strengthening of corporate capitalism Scenario 2: Growing within limits: a low-carbon economy and adequate biodiversity protection can be achieved with currently identifiable technologies Scenario 3: New welfare / beyond GDP: new technoeconomic and social paradigm emerges Scenario 4: Turbulent decline: failure to manage common goods, economic, societal and environmental collapse 17

18 18. Alternative scenarios 18

19 19. Final thoughts 1. It is possible to reduce the dimensionality problem by introducing the "policy feasibility" dimension 2. Impact community might be interested in a limited number of variables compatible with a given level of temperature 3. Many scenarios with about 3.7w/sqm, relatively new runs with 4.5w/sqm 19

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