OTC 2007 Modeling Platform

Transcription

1 OTC 2007 Modeling Platform 1

2 Photochemical Modeling CMAQ4.71 with CB05 chemistry WRF 3.1 (Weather Research Forecast) simulated 2007 Meteorology Modeling domain: 12 km Eastern U.S. Climatological time-invariant Clean boundary conditions Level 2 emission inventory. 2

3 2007 Level2 Emission Inventory OTC incl VA SEMAP excl VA LADCO CENRAP CANADA Area MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 MAR MARAMA 2007 Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point Included with EPA NEI2008 v1.5 area/nonroad/nonegu point OME 2005 Nonroad MARAMA 2007 SEMAP 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 C3MV (Cat 3 Marine Vessels) EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 EPA CHIEF 2005 Non EGU Point MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 EGU Point MARAMA 2007 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 EPA NEI2008 v1.5 OME 2005 Mobile MARAMA 2007 SMOKE/MOVES EPA 2007 national inventory mode MOVES run, gasoline PM emissions temperature-adjusted LADCO 2007/2008 default inputs inventory mode MOVES run EPA 2007 national OME 2005 (Canadian inventory mode MOVES MOBILE6 Activity and Input run, gasoline PM emissions Data) temperature-adjusted Biogenic MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN MEGAN Anthropogenic Chlorine EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform N/A Oceanic Chlorine EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform EPA CHIEF 2005 Platform OME The latest available inventories for Canada from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment.

4 150 Daily Maximum 8-Hour Ozone over OTR Model (ppb) Observation (ppb) The scatter plot shows a performance for daily 8-hour maximum ozone for ozone season over OTR. Model performed well in capturing the observed ozone greater than 75 ppb. 4

5 Mean Bias (MB) for Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone, April 15 October 30, AQS Monitors over OTC states. Higher bias occurred around coast areas. 5

6 Correlation Coefficient for Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone, April 15 October 30, AQS Monitors over OTC states. 6

7 Time Series of Spatially Averaged Daily Maximum 8-hr Ozone April 15 October 30, All AQS Monitors within the OTC States DailyMax 8HR O3, Average over OTC AQS monitors AQS-8hrmax CMAQ-8hrmax-L2 # of Site: 215 State: OTC O3 (ppb) May June July Aug Sept Oct Date The timing of episodes is generally captured, but model prediction tends to be overestimated

8 Summary Overall the model performed well and was compatible to the previous 2002 SIP modeling. The 2007 platform level 2 still overpredicted observed ozone concentrations. Next will show the comparison for various species at Pfizer Lab, NY site. 8

9 120 Ozone Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Concentration (ppb) Hour CMAQ captured the observed ozone diurnal variation and tended to overpredict the observed peak and underestimated observed morning and afternoon ozone. 9

10 Concentration (ppbc) Total NMHC Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Compare with PAMS Total NMHC measurements. Lump PAMS NMHC according to CB05 chemistry. CMAQ overpredicted morning and afternoon observed value Hour 10

11 Isoprene Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Double peaks feature in CMAQ are not in the Observed. Concentration (ppbc) Hour 11

12 300 NOx Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ Concentration (ppb) Hour CMAQ overpredicted NOx at Pfizer Lab monitor. 12

13 25 SO2 Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 20 Concentration (ppb) Hour For SO2, CMAQ captured the observe diurnal but higher than observed values. 13

14 2500 CO Pfizer Lab, NY Obs CMAQ 2000 Concentration (ppb) Hour 14

15 MODEL SENSITIVITY 15

16 Level 2 Screening Runs Base Case Scenario 4 Case 48% NOx and 23% VOC Reduction Bounding Case 68% NOx and 23% VOC Reduction Bounding Case For bounding runs, reductions were applied uniformly to all sectors and entire modeling domain For scenario 4 run: Domain-wide NOx reductions on point (65%) and on on-read (70%) sectors, domain-wide 30% VOC reductions on point and on-road sectors. Extra 5% NOx reduction on OTR only 16

17 Scenario 4 Approximates OTC s recommendations for onroad mobile and EGUs Uses best available 2020 data except where noted Domain-Wide NO X Reductions Point: 65% from 2007 Estimate of CSAPR 1 & CSAPR 2 Onroad: 70% from 2007 Estimate of Tier 2 fleet turnover & Tier 3 in 2017 Domain-Wide VOC Reductions 30% EGU & On-road sectors from 2007 OTR Only: Extra 5% NO X 17

18 Selected Screening Run Design Monitor Values N48/V23 Sc. 4 N68/V23 Bayonne NJ White Plains NY Camden NJ Bristol PA Greenwich CT Babylon NY NEA PA NYC-Queens NY Clarksboro NJ Edgewood MD Chicopee MA NOTE: A full set or results were provided in the binder 2/17/

19 Relative Ozone Reductions N48/V30 (10% Less) Scenario 4 N68/V30 (10% More) -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 27% 33% Ozone reductions from Scenario 4 run generally between 15 and 25% from the base case NO X focused emission reductions show less benefit for urban core areas 19

20 Observed 8-Hr Daily Maximum Ozone DVC (Average of 05-07, 06-08, and DV) Estimated DVF Scenario Level 2 Platform. (DVC x RRF) 20

21 Differences (in ppb) Scenario 4 to 10% More NOx Reduction The benefit of the Scenario 4 to the less NO X (N48V23) reduction was in the inner OTR region With further NO X reduction (N68V23) from Scenario 4, would show larger benefit in the coast and west of New York areas with dense emission

22 2007 platform applications Carnegie Mellon University used 2007 platform to study oil and gas emission. NYS used 2007 platform to modeling Marcellus Shale emission. Model SO2 background. 22

23 Next Step Update emission inventories - MARAMA version 3 inventory and 2007 emission from other RPOs. Time-variant boundary conditions base on Geos_Chem global model. 23