Alexis Zubrow, Alison Eyth, Rich Mason. AQAST Conference, June 2014

Transcription

1 Alexis Zubrow, Alison Eyth, Rich Mason AQAST Conference, June

2 The full NEI is on a 3 year cycle States, locals, and tribes (S/L/Ts) are required to submit criteria pollutants Air Emissions Reporting Requirements (AERR) defines the requirements of S/L/Ts to collect and submit emissions Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) and GHGs are voluntarily submitted Emissions Inventory System (EIS) used to build and release the NEI Data hierarchy: S/L/T data typically above EPA generated data Solvent - Dry Cleaning Onroad MOVES submitted inputs P - Point N - Nonpoint All HAPs EPA PN - P&N SLT EPA & SLT 2

3 NO X (million tons) Evaluations of trends across years and space Methodological changes Example onroad model changed in 2008 NEI v2 Switch to MOVES Draft 3

4 Black Carbon (BC) is primarily calculated by speciating PM2.5 from the inventory 2011 National Black Carbon Emissions Tons Thousands U.S Black Carbon Emissions Industrial Processes MiscOther 2% 4% Fuel Combustion 11% Fires Mobile Nonroad Wildfires Prescribed Fires Agricultural Field Burning DieselEquipment Railroad CMV Gas Aircraft Other Mobile Onroad 19% Fires 42% Mobile Onroad DieselHeavyDuty GasLightDuty DieselLightDuty GasHeavyDuty Mobile Nonroad 22% Source: U.S. EPA 2011 NEI V1; 2011v6 Emissions Modeling Platform Fuel Combustion Residential IndusBoilers Comm/Instit ElecGeneration WasteDisposal Misc Other CommercialCooking DustPavedUnPavedRoads Agriculture Non-IndustrialNEC 95% is from biomass burning 51% is from natural gas, 20% from biomass 51% is from natural gas, 37% from coal 95% is from open burning of residential waste and debris from land clearing Industrial Industrial Processes Processes SolvCommercialIndustrial 4

5 PM2.5 (tons) Processing steps needed to convert emissions inventories into the resolution and formats needed by air quality models. Chittenden Co, VT: RWC 2011 Daily PM Inventories (annual/ monthly/daily) Speciation Gridded, hourly, speciated emissions 5

6 PM2.5 (tons) Distribution of emissions across time Annual -> month, month -> day, day -> hour Examples of meteorological based temporalization: Chittenden Co, VT: RWC 2011 Daily PM RWC: Annual -> daily Based on: daily minimum T 1 0 Ag livestock NH3: Monthly -> hourly Based on: T, wind, aerodynamic resistance 6

7 Distributions of emissions across space Typically county -> grid cell Oil & Gas surrogates for Northeast CMV (C1 and C2) in Gulf 7

8 2011 modeling platform and 2018 projected emissions are primarily based on 2011 NEI v1 Received comments from S/L/Ts, environmental groups and industry Basis for EPA s air analyses for rules and other purposes: Transport of pollution across state boundaries Health risks from toxic emissions (e.g NATA v1) Criteria pollutant standards (e.g. O3 NAAQS proposal) GHG co-benefits (e.g. EGU GHG proposal - 111d) 8

9 Challenge with top-down analysis/emissions Matching observations to sources and sectors NEI has thousands of process codes-> 60 EIS sectors -> 19 modeling sectors Aligning the spatial and temporal scales of observations vs inventories Short term goals Improvements to temporalization Improvements to spatial gridding Comparisons against inter-annual trends Long term goals Improving international emissions Identifying missing or under/over represented point sources Dynamic updates to inventories for operational forecasting Developing between cycle emission platforms 9

10 2011 NEI v1: Emissions trends: Emissions Modeling Platform: My contact: 10

11 CMV Commercial Marine Vehicles EGU Electric Generating Unit EIS Emissions Inventory System NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NATA National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment NEI National Emissions Inventory RWC Residential Wood Combustion S/L/T State/Local/Tribal 11