Εκδήλωση ΙΕΝΕ: H Αγορά Ηλεκτρικής Ενέργειας σε Μετάβαση- Τελευταίες εξελίξεις σε Ευρώπη και Ελλάδα

Transcription

1 Εκδήλωση ΙΕΝΕ: H Αγορά Ηλεκτρικής Ενέργειας σε Μετάβαση- Τελευταίες εξελίξεις σε Ευρώπη και Ελλάδα Τετάρτη 28 Μαρτίου 2018 Παρουσίαση: Ανδρέας Πετροπουλέας Energy Management Director 1

2 Timeline of key EU energy market legislation : 1 st Legislative Package Directive 96/92/EC: concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity; Directive 98/30/EC: concerning common rules for the internal market in gas 2003: 2 nd Legislative Package Directive 2003/54/EC: introduction of free choice of electricity suppliers, entry of new suppliers; Directive 2003/55/EC: introduction of free choice of gas suppliers, entry of new suppliers 2009: 3 rd Legislative Package Directive 2009/72/EC: common rules for the internal market in electricity; Directive 2009/73/EC; common rules for the internal market in gas; Regulation (EC) No 714/2009: conditions for access to the network for crossborder exchanges in electricity; Regulation (EC) No 715/2009: conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks; Regulation (EC) No 713/2009: establishing an Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators; 2015: Energy Union Framework Strategy, 5 pillars Supply security; Fully-integrated internal energy market; Energy efficiency; Climate action; Research and innovation in lowcarbon technologies 2016: Winter Package, among other measures Proposal for a Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union; Proposal for a Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from (Recast) renewable sources; Proposal for a Regulation on the internal market for electricity; (Recast) Proposal for a Directive on common rules for the internal market in electricity (Recast) Focus on liberalisation of energy market Focus on development of market access, wholesale market integration and effective retail markets (unbundling) New challenges (demand response, renewable and decentral generation etc) 2

3 1. Secure supplies; We have to become less dependent on energy from outside the EU 2. Internal energy market; Energy should flow freely across the EU without any technical or regulatory barriers 3. Energy efficiency; Rethink energy efficiency as an energy source in its own right 4 Emissions reduction; An ambitious climate policy is an integral part of our Energy Union 5 Research & innovation; Developing EU technological leadership in low carbon technologies The winter package ; 5 guiding dimensions for the Energy Union and action directions Revision of security of gas supply regulation Comprehensive LNG strategy Develop alternative suppliers, including Southern Gas Corridor and with the Mediterranean Revision of the Decision on Intergovernmen tal Agreements EU Energy and climate policy diplomacy and trade policy Implementation of major infrastructure projects (PCIs) Energy Infrastructure Forum Legislation on security of supply for electricity European electricity market design Reinforced European regulatory framework Guidance on regional cooperation Analysis of Energy prices and costs Vulnerable consumers protection Review the Energy Efficiency Directive Review the EPBD Review the Energy Labelling and Ecodesign Directives Strengthened financial instruments to support investments in energy efficiency EU strategy for Heating and Cooling Legislation to achieve the 40% GHG reduction target (both in ETS and non ETS) Renewable Energy Package: RES directive revision, best practices for selfconsumption and support schemes Comprehensive road transport package Increased deployment of alternative fuels and clean vehicles Integrated SET Plan, including smart cities and smart financing Strategic transport research and innovation R&I agenda Initiative on EU global technology and innovation leadership 3

4 Changes in EU electricity production and consumption, from 2016 to 2017 Source: Agora Energiewende & Sandbag 4

5 EU electricity generation, by fuel type Source: Agora Energiewende & Sandbag 5

6 The Forward Market (FM), liquidity in Europe s PX and OTC markets Physical or Financial Annual forward trade volumes (GWh) % of country demand Country Exchanges available PX OTC Total Austria F EEX, ICE, NASDAQ % Belgium F EEX, ICE % Czech Republic F PXE % France F EEX % Germany F EEX, ICE, NASDAQ % Greece F EEX % Hungary P & F HUPX, PXE % Italy P & F EEX, GME, ICE, IDEX % Poland P & F POLPX, PXE % Portugal P & F OMIP (MIBEL) % Romania F EEX % United Kingdom F ICE, NASDAQ % Forward trading and liquidity per country; in mature markets, OTC is more liquid than PXs (data refer to 2015 and should be used for comparative analysis, not as absolute figures) 6

7 The Day-Ahead Market (DAM), Single solution for the whole Internal Market of Europe Block Orders Hourly Orders Network models (ATC & FB) Complex Orders Anonymous Orders EUPHEMIA Network Merit & PUN Orders PXs TSOs Losses et.al. Energy demand and supply orders in all coupled DAMs in Europe are getting matched by a single algorithm, named Euphemia. Euphemia matches the orders for all the periods of a single day at once, while taking into account the market and network constraints. The main objective of this algorithm is to maximize the social welfare, i.e. the total market value of all the coupled DAMs Euphemia returns the market clearing prices, the matched volumes, and the net position of each bidding area, as well as the flow through the interconnectors. It also returns the selection of block, complex, merit, and PUN orders that will be executed. 7

8 The Day-Ahead Market (DAM), actual coupling between zones - DAM price convergence in Europe by region( ) Actual coupling between the EU markets, i.e. price convergence, has developed through the years, except from the problems created from the vres in Germany which impose loop flows in the whole CEE region and led to reduced availability of the interconnectors Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), the Central-East Europe (CEE) region (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia), the CWE region (Belgium, France, Germany/Austria/Luxembourg and the Netherlands), the Ireland and United Kingdom region (IU) (the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom), the Nordic region (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) and the SWE region (France, Portugal and Spain) Source: ENTSO-E, Platts (2017) and ACER calculations. Note: The numbers in brackets refer to the number of bidding zones included in the calculations per region. 8

9 EU Power Price Drivers 9

10 The Future: Flexibility & Supply value chains interaction model Source: USEF (Universal Smart Energy Framework) 10

11 Developments in SEE; Developing national markets and coupling Positive processes are underway in most countries; power markets are being implemented and plan to be coupled by the end of 2020 Recent CESEC (Central and South Eastern Europe Connectivity) initiative in the electricity sector by European Commission, could strengthen the political commitment and better align EU and non-eu markets development in SEE ENTSO-e s Tentative roadmap to regional SEE market (ENTSO-e, 3rd Report on the progress and potential problems with the implementation of Single Day-ahead and Intraday Coupling, August 2017) Regarding the emerging markets in the region, it is noted that Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia have already a functional market, exposing low but increasing liquidity. Albania is currently implementing its DAM market (in cooperation with NordPool) and designing the BM. ME and MK are taking steps in the same direction. 11

12 Developments in SEE; interconnectivity developments Electricity interconnections in SEE are weak; that is why several PCIs have been identified and their implementation is promoted. EU Commission is linking the need for new interconnections with price spreads The extended scope of CESECe, as agreed in the MoU of September 2017, includes the need to accelerate the joint realization of a limited number of targeted electricity infrastructure projects. The following transmission infrastructure projects have been prioritized: Enhancement of the capacity between Bulgaria, Romania and Greece (commissioning by end of 2021) Enhancement of the capacity along the East-West corridor in South- East Europe from Italy to Romania via the Balkans, comprising the following 3 project clusters: Italy Montenegro Interconnector; completion of commissioning in 2019 (approximately MW) Interconnection Romania Serbia and internal reinforcements in RO; latest project completion 2023 Transbalkan corridor between Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina; completion by end of Electricity Interconnections between SEE and CEE; Hungary Slovakia (in 2020) and Croatia Hungary Slovenia (in 2021). Furthermore, in 2017 the EU Commission Expert Group expressed that the 2/MWh is a proper threshold above which we see a strong need to investigate further interconnection in order to reap the benefits of market integration. Greece is highlighted in the relevant maps. 12

13 Developments in SEE; power generation from nuclear, lignite & coal Our analysis, based on ENTSO-E data, Period: H2/16 & H1/17 13

14 Developments in SEE; power generation from Natural Gas Our analysis, based on ENTSO-E data, Period: H2/16 & H1/17 14

15 Overview of the power markets and CB trading in SEE Net energy balance per country Cross-border flows of electricity are very important for the security of supply in SEE countries This dependence is expected to increase in the future, according to the simulations of ENTSOe Our analysis, based on ENTSO-E data, Period: H2/16 & H1/17 15

16 Developments in SEE; regional Outlook studies, generation mix by country in 2030 Greece is estimated to be effectively the only country in the region with considerable gas-topower generation; electricity generated by CCGTs is expected to increase significantly by 2030 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND DEMAND (TWh) AND RES SHARE (% OF DEMAND) BY COUNTRY, 2030 Source: SEERMAP Study (REKK, EEG, EKC, OG Research, ERRA) 16

17 Overview of SEE markets Power exchanges 14 Countries: 7 EU Members States 6 non-members of EU in the Western Balkans (WB6) and Turkey Operational power markets: in the EU MSs in Serbia from WB6 in Turkey Coupled markets: Hungary and Romania, form 4M-MC together with Czech Republic and Slovakia Italy and Slovenia participate in MRC (Multi Regional Coupling) Internal market splitting in Italy due to systematic transmission constraints; Greece is connected to the Brindisi ( BRNN ) zone 17

18 Overview of SEE markets Mature markets and new comers IT/GME is by far the biggest market in the area, but the internal split is reducing the effective market visible from the interconnections TR/EPIAS is also large compared to the Balkan markets, but with weak interconnections to them RS/SEEPEX and HR/CROPEX are new and not really developing in terms of liquidity BG/IBEX is developing faster; measures are taken in Dec17 to increase liquidity HU/HUPX is the most important market in the Balkans, due to its strong interconnections. Its prices are the basic index in SEE, especially for the WB6 countries. Traded in : DAM: 6.1 TWh IDM: 0.2 GWh BM: 0.2 GWh Started operating Feb16, low volumes Traded in : Power markets: TWh Gas Markets: 47.5 TWh Env/al markets: 112 GWh (GO) Traded in DAM 2 (TWh): 2016: PUN 289.1, BRNN : PUN 292.5, BRNN 12.8 Sources: 1: Europex, Association of European Energy Exchanges 2: Our data analysis of data collected from PXs Traded in : DAM: 17.7 TWh IDM: 11 GWh Physical Futures: 6.9 TWh Started operating Feb16, low volumes Traded in DAM 2 : 2016: 50.9 TWh 2017: 52.3 TWh Traded in : Electricity volumes: 85 TWh Nat. Gas volumes: 18 GWh Started operating Jan16, increasing volumes Traded in : DAM: TWh IDM: 839 MWh 18

19 Greek Wholesale Market (Current Status) Mandatory Pool: ? 19

20 Retail Market Shares (February ) 20

21 Production Market Shares ( ) 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 57% Power Production Market share % 53% 20% 15% 13% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% PPC IPPs 21

22 A new business environment under the Target Model 22

23 Critical Issues of the Target Model Design 1. Maximum limit on forward/otc contracts for the dominant player : Very critical measure to mitigate the market power of the dominant player (PPC). Introduction of maximum limit (0-10%) on PPC s internal Forward contracts is absolutely necessary. It should be, however, combined with an obligation to sell Forward minimum volumes to 3 rd parties. 2. Centralised dispatch, unit-based offers: production units will participate separately in the DAM, IDM and BM. Model design in the right direction, in order to mitigate market power of PPC, the only participant with diversified portfolio. 3. Floor price for production offers in DAM and IDM: power producers will have to submit orders on prices higher than the minimum variable cost of the corresponding unit. Measure to mitigate the market power of the dominant player 4. Physical and financial products: Off-peak products should be included in the FM Forward products are not tradeable during the month of delivery; balance of month (BOM) products are very useful in reducing basic risk of price deviations between the forward products and DAM 5. Participation of load, RES and aggregators in zones: all these entities will submit orders in the DAM and the IDM per system zone. Aggregation per zone & per technology creates barriers for development of this activity. 6. Short-term Flexible Ramping Capacity (FCR), it was proposed in October 2014 in the High-level Market design. In the last public consultation, FCR has disappeared. 7. Orders types in DAM: limited number of order types compared to the European Markets will be available at the beginning. Non-optimal Power Plant programming. No explanation why limited block orders have been proposed. 8. BM optimization algorithms not including start-up (or shut-down) cost, which is also not-remunerated : This measure is in favor of the dominant player. Non-Flexible Plants (lignite) will be dispatched with priority in order to fulfill the OTC contracts, while Flexible plants (CCGTs) with daily start-ups will operate with losses. Not compatible with Centralised dispatch model. Shut down instructions from ADMIE will bring high losses to the CCGTs. 23

24 Ευχαριστώ Ανδρέας Πετροπουλέας 24