Energy transition in Poland 2017

Transcription

1 Analizy i dialog

2 Forum Energii is the Polish think tank forging the foundations of an effective, secure, clean and innovative energy system. All Forum Energii analyses may be copied and duplicated free of charge as long as the source and authors are indicated. AUTHORS: Rafał Macuk, Joanna Maćkowiak Pandera, Andrzej Rubczyński Forum Energii ENGLISH EDITING: Aleksandra Przygoda Forum Energii 2

3 Table of Contents Introduction Conclusions Installed capacity in the Polish power system in 2017 Increase in installed capacity in 2017 as compared to 2016 Changes in installed capacity in the National Power System Changes in installed capacity in renewable energy sources Electricity production in 2017 Electricity production in 2017 as compared to 2016 Diversification of electricity production Changes in electricity production from renewable sources Domestic balance of electricity production and consumption Changes in electricity demand Changes in peak power demand in the National Power System

4 Table of Contents Total greenhouse gas emissions Power sector greenhouse gas emissions Gas and dust emissions Dynamic of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions changes Electricity production structure in 2016 Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe in 2015 Comparison of SPOT electricity prices on neighbouring markets Wholesale electricity prices in Europe in 2017 Domestic hard coal production Coal import to Poland with country of origin specification Domestic consumption of natural gas Meeting natural gas demand List of abbreviations

5 Introduction We present to you our report regarding the Polish power sector. We point out data relevant to the changes taking place. Monitoring these is of key importance for a correct diagnosis of the situation and planning activities accordingly. The power sector is at the heart of the economy. Its purpose is to guarantee reliable electricity supplies at reasonable prices. The power sector should be able to respond to changes in the regulatory and technological environments, and the decision makers should support this responsiveness. The most important challenges include the reduction of environmental impact and modernization introducing innovative, effective technologies, digitalization and grid development. The basis for managing change is reliable information. Transparency of the power sector is crucial at a time of considerable changes such as those currently taking place. Both business and society, the power sector s customers, should be kept abreast of these on an ongoing basis. We hope that this publication will at least partly fill the information gap, and support the discussion on the achievements and challenges ahead of the Polish power sector in the years to come. We share with you our passion for statistical data, as we believe that they can speak louder than many studies. There is only one conclusion the Polish power sector is changing. The greatest change is the reduced share of coal, which fell from 80% to 78% within a year. Yours faithfully, Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, PhD Forum Energii 5

6 Conclusions The Polish power sector is slowly beginning to change. The generating side still remains the least diversified in the European Union. The share of coal in the energy mix decreased to 78.4%, while the position of RES and gas is growing in strength. Due to legislative changes, the development of RES has been suspended since The diversification of gas supplies results in increased gas consumption. CO 2 emissions have increased in recent years, despite a decrease at the beginning of the 1990s. The lack of strategy for development and achievement of goals is the greatest challenge for the Polish power sector. 6

7 Generation capacity 7

8 Installed capacity in the Polish system in 2017 (GW and %) The Polish energy mix is still poorly diversified - most of the installed capacity is provided by coal-fired conventional units. HARD COAL 22.0 GW 51% LIGNITE 9.3 GW 21% NATURAL GAS 2.1 GW 5% OTHER INDUSTRIAL 0.6 GW 1% PUMPED-STORAGE 1.4 GW 3% RES 8.2 GW 19% HYDROPOWER 1.0 GW 2% ONSHORE WIND 5.8 GW 13% BIOGAS 0.2 GW 1% BIOMASS 0.9 GW 2% Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. PV 0.3 GW 1% 8

9 Increase in installed capacity in 2017 as compared to 2016 (MW) In the last year, the increase in conventional power was the largest in twenty years. This results from, among others, the completion of the investment project of a coal-fired unit in Kozienice and CCGT units in Włocławek, Gorzów and Toruń MW HARD COAL LIGNITE NATURAL GAS OTHER INDUSTRIAL PUMPED- STORAGE HYDROPOWER ONSHORE WIND BIOGAS BIOMASS PV Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 9

10 Changes in installed capacity in the National Power System (GW) Over the last years, the amount of installed capacity in renewable energy sources increased. Coal-fired power plant restoration investments in recent years did not result in increased capacity GW g HARD COAL g LIGNITE g NATURAL GAS g INDUSTRIAL g PUMPED-STORAGE g RES Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 10

11 Changes in installed capacity in renewable energy sources (GW) The system of green certificates has contributed to an increase in installed capacity, in particular in onshore wind farms. The interrupted development of RES capacity at the turn of 2016/2017 results from significant legislative changes GW g HYDROPOWER g ONSHORE WIND g BIOGAS g BIOMASS g PV Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 11

12 Electricity production 12

13 Electricity production in 2017 (TWh and %) In 2017, coal was still the dominant electricity source, however, its share decreased by one percentage point compared to LIGNITE 52.3 TWh 30.7% NATURAL GAS 9.3 TWh 5.5% OTHER INDUSTRIAL 3.0 TWh 1.8% PPUMPED- STORAGE 0.5 TWh 0.3% HYDROPOWER 2.6 TWh 1.5% BIOGAS 1.1 TWh 0.6% BIOMASS 3.5 TWh 2.0% RES 24.0 TWh 14.1% BIOMASS CO-FIRING 1.8 TWh 1.1% ONSHORE WIND 14.9 TWh 8.8% HARD COAL 81.1 TWh 47.7% PV 0.2 TWh 0.1% Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 13

14 Electricity production in 2017 as compared to 2016 (GWh) Due to weather conditions and new power capacities 2017 was a record year in terms of production from RES, mainly from wind (approx TWh) and water (approx. 2.6 TWh). Electricity production from gas was also record high 20% more than in the previous year due to new units. Increased electricity production from lignite was the consequence of extended operating times of these units, not new investment projects. Late power unit delivery in the Kozienice Power Plant did not increase electricity production from hard coal in the National Power System GWh HARD COAL LIGNITE NATURAL GAS OTHER INDUSTRIAL PUMPED- STORAGE HYDRO- POWER BIOGAS BIOMASS BIOMASS CO-FIRING ONSHORE WIND PV Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 14

15 Diversification of electricity production (TWh) The average mid-term trend shows slow diversification leading to increased electricity production from RES and gas TWh g HARD COAL g LIGNITE g NATURAL GAS g INDUSTRIAL g RES g PUMPED -STORAGE Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 15

16 Changes in electricity production from renewable sources (TWh) Initially, low-cost biomass co-firing production developed at existing coal-fired boilers. Subsequently, as a result of initiated investment projects, production from onshore wind and dedicated biomass units increased. Due to a faltering support system in recent years, electricity production from biomass firing units is limited TWh g HYDROPOWER g BIOGAS g BIOMASS g BIOMASS CO-FIRING g ONSHORE WIND g PV Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 16

17 Energy balance 17

18 Domestic balance of electricity production and consumption (TWh) Since 2014, Poland has become a net importer of electricity, mainly as a result of the higher wholesale energy price on the Polish market compared to markets of neighbouring countries TWh g PRODUCTION g CONSUMPTION Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 18

19 Changes in electricity demand (TWh and %) On average, electricity demand increased by 1.1% annually over the past decade. In the last three years, the dynamic of the year-on-year increase in electricity demand grew to more than 2%; in the last year, it reached 2.27%. These values are lower than forecast. 180TWh 30% 170TWh % 160TWh % 150TWh % TWh 140TWh 10% 130TWh 2.01% 4.48% 1.40% 0.52% 0.54% 0.83% 2.06% 2.43% 2.27% 5% 120TWh -0,.34% 0% 110TWh -2.62% -5% 100TWh -10% g RELATIVE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND g ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION Source: own analysis, based on data from ARE. 19

20 Changes in peak power demand in the National Power System (GW) Peak power demand rises more rapidly in the summer period as a result of higher air temperatures and a rise in popularity of air conditioning equipment. Since 2006, the maximum power demand increased by 6.5% and in the summer period by 18.5% GW 24 GW GW g ANNUAL MAXIMUM g SUMMER PERIOD MAXIMUM Source: own analysis, based on data from PSE. 20

21 Emissions 21

22 Total greenhouse gas emissions (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent) The largest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Poland occurred at the time of the country s system transformation. Since 2015, emissions have started to rise again % % 400-1% million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent Source: own analysis, based on data from EEA, EIONET, KOBiZE. 22

23 Power sector greenhouse gas emissions (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent) The significant decrease in emissions from power plants and combined heat and power plants in the 1990s resulted mainly from the economic transformation of the country, and the elimination of some industry branches, thus limiting the use of industrial combined heat and power plants. The decrease in heating sector emissions in the 1990s was due to investments made to increase energy efficiency % -30% million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent % 50-73% -14% -74% g POWER PLANTS AND COMBINED HEAT AND POWER PLANTS g HEAT ONLY BOILERS Source: own analysis, based on data from EEA, EIONET, KOBiZE. 23

24 Gas and dust emissions (thousand tonnes) SO 2 emissions decreased due to high performance flue-gas desulphurization systems installed in power plants and later on in combined heat and power plants. A slower trend in NO x emissions reduction is the consequence of using less sophisticated technologies (low-emission burners, non-catalytic denitrification systems). A significant decrease in dust emissions occurred in the 1990s. Further reductions are a result of retrofitting dedusting systems and construction of wet desulphurization systems thousand tonnes g SO 2 g NO X g DUST Source: own analysis, based on data from GUS. 24

25 Dynamic of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions changes Despite a rapid GDP increase in Poland, greenhouse gas emissions have not been rising as quickly, which indicates the dissociation between economic growth and rise in emissions. 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% g GDP INDEX g GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION INDEX Source: own analysis, based on data from GUS. 25

26 Poland vs. the EU 26

27 Electricity production structure in 2016 (TWh and %) Poland s energy system is among the least diversified in Europe. In terms of electricity production, Poland s energy system is the sixth largest in Europe. 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% LUXEMBOURG AUSTRIA CROATIA LATVIA DENMARK SWEDEN PORTUGAL LITHUANIA FINLAND ROMANIA SPAIN RES SOLID FUELS PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS GASES NUCLEAR WASTE (NON-RES) OTHER ITALY SLOVENIA GERMANY GREECE IRELAND SLOVAKIA UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE BELGIUM BULGARIA MALTA POLAND THE NETHERLANDS CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY CYPRUS 2.2 TWh 68.4 Wh 12.8 TWh 4.3 TWh 30.5 TWh TWh 60.3 TWh 6.4 TWh 68.8 TWh 65.1 TWh TWh TWh 16.5 TWh TWh 51.4 TWh 30.4 TWh 27.1 TWh TWh TWh 85.5TWh 45.3 TWh 0.9 TWh TWh TWh 83.3 TWh 12.2 TWh 31.9 TWh 4.9 TWh Source: EU Commission, DG ENER, Unit A4. Energy datasheets: EU28 countries; own analysis. 27

28 Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe in 2015 (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent) Poland is responsible for 8.7% of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is the fifth largest emitter Malta Cyprus Latvia Luxembourg Slovenia Estonia Lithuania Croatia Slovakia Denmark Sweden Finland Hungary Bulgaria Ireland Portugal Austria Greece Romania Belgium Czech Republic The Netherlands Spain Poland Italy France United Kingdom million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent Germany g POWER SECTOR GHG EMISSIONS g OTHER DOMESTIC GHG EMISSIONS Source: EU Commission, DG ENER, Unit A4. Energy datasheets: EU28 countries; own analysis. 28

29 Comparison of SPOT electricity prices on neighbouring markets ( /MWh) Electricity prices in Poland are the highest in the region /MWh QUARTER I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV. I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV g SE g LT g PL g DE Source: TGE, EEX, NordPool; own analysis. 29

30 Wholesale electricity prices in Europe in 2017 ( /MWh) Average annual wholesale electricity prices in Poland are usually higher than in other countries from the region, but significantly lower than in the South European countries. g > 50 g g g g < 30 /MWh /MWh /MWh /MWh /MWh NORWAY DENMARK SWEDEN FINLAND ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA IRELAND UK 39,.40 THE NETHERLANDS POLAND FRANCE BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG GERMANY CZECH REP AUSTRIA SLOVENIA SLOVAKIA HUNGARY ROMANIA SPAIN ITALY BULGARIA PORTUGAL 54,.70 GREECE Source: DG Energy Market Observatory for Energy: Quarterly Report (2017); average value of four quarters, own analysis. 30

31 Power sector fuels 31

32 Domestic hard coal production (million tonnes) For many years, in the Polish mines, a decrease in production related to the availability of resources and production costs has been observed mln tonnes g TOTAL HARD COAL g STEAM COAL g COKING COAL Source: Eurostat, GUS, Polski Rynek Węgla; own analysis. 32

33 Steam coal consumption in Poland in 2016 (million tonnes) OTHER 2.5 mln tonnes 4% SMALL CONSUMER SECTOR 11.8 mln tonnes 20% INDUSTRY 4.5 mln tonnes 7% HEATING SECTOR 4.6 mln tonnes 8% POWER SECTOR 37.0 mln tonnes 61% Source: Eurostat, GUS, Polski Rynek Węgla; own analysis. 33

34 Coal import to Poland with country of origin specification (million tonnes) The year 2017 showed a reversal of the recent five-year trend of limiting steam coal imports to Poland. Russia remains the main supply partner mln tonnes g RUSSIA g CZECH REPUBLIC g COLOMBIA g KAZACHSTAN g UKRAINE g USA g OTHER Source: Eurostat, Argus Media; own analysis. 34

35 Domestic consumption of natural gas (billion m 3 ) Gas consumption in Poland has been increasing slowly % % % billion m % % g GAS CONSUMPTION g POWER SECTOR AND HEATING SECTOR g INDUSTRY g TRANSPORTATION g HOUSEHOLDS g OTHER Source: GUS; own analysis. 35

36 Meeting natural gas demand (billion m 3 ) In 2016, 84% of Poland s gas demand was met by imports, mostly from the East. A decade ago the share of imported gas was 79%. Domestic production of natural gas has been decreasing steadily: in 2016 it was 400 million m 3 (approx. 18%) lower than in billion m SHARE OF IMPORT 84% g IMPORT BALANCE g DOMESTIC PRODUCTION g CHANGE OF STOCK g IMPORT FROM THE EAST g IMPORT FROM THE EU g LNG REGASIFICATION Source: GUS, PGNiG, Annual report 2016, Gas Market; own analysis. 36

37 List of abbreviations OZE -- Renewable Energy Sources GHG -- Greenhouse Gases CAGR -- Compound Annual Growth Rate CCGT -- Combined Cycle Gas Turbine HEPI -- Household Energy Price Index GDP -- Gross Domestic Product ARE -- Agencja Rynku Energii S.A. (Energy Market Agency) PSE -- Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (TSO) GUS -- Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Central Statistical Office) KOBiZE -- Krajowy Ośrodek Bilansowania i Zarządzania Emisjami (National Center for Emission Balancing and Management) EEA -- European Environment Agency EIONET -- European Environment Information and Observation Network 37

38 List of abbreviations DG ENER -- Directorate-General for Energy TGE -- Towarowa Giełda Energii S.A. (Polish Power Exchange) EEX -- European Energy Exchange AG PV -- Photovoltaics 38

39 Notes 39

40 Energy transition in Poland 2017