Emanuela Colombo Rector s Delegate to Cooperation for Development Department of Energy - Politecnico di Milano

Transcription

1 Emanuela Colombo Rector s Delegate to Cooperation for Development Department of Energy - Politecnico di Milano Working group Access to Energy - Energylab foundation Vice President, Engineering Without Borders Milan

2 2

3 Outline 3 Introduction and Context Energy issue in the early Third Millennium Access to Energy in Low Income Economies Final consideration and action lines

4 Introduction and Contest 4 Energy availability Access to energy Equity Back to History, energy has given the chance to move from subsistence to socio-economic development while promoting the evolution of the human thinking Energy is worldwide essential to provide public goods: to preserve medicines, to operate hospitals, to improve the agro-food chain, to foster education and access to ICT... Today, we are facing a paradox - in some Countries, energy is available, affordable, safe - in some others Countries, energy is not yet available Energy is linked to Development and vice-versa Access to Energy is an opportunity for overcoming the development divide and fighting against global poverty

5 Introduction and Contest 5 Everybody should have the right to access energy, but it is NOT billion people do not have access to electricity 1 further billions do not have access to reliable electric grid 3 billion people rely on non commercial biomass for cooking and lighting

6 Introduction and Contest 6 Everybody should have the right to access also to other resources, 2.4 billion people do not have access to basic healthcare 1 billion people do not have access to clean drinkable water 0.85 billion people Lack of basic education but it is NOT 0.80 billion people Suffer from chronic malnutrition

7 Outline 7 Introduction and Context Energy issue in the early Third Millennium Access to Energy in Low Income Economies Final consideration and action lines

8 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 8 Relevance of the Energy issue Implication between Energy - Environment Implication between Energy - Society Complex Multidisciplinary Interconnected Local impact Global impact Health Economy and welfare Job and market Security Qualitative interdependency between Energy and Development

9 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 9 Pro capita consumption of energy Population (%) living below the poverty line The Energy issue presents the well know paradox of disparities Energy Supply is not distributed with equity at the global level Low income countries are also low energy countries Quantitative interdependency between Energy and Development

10 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 10 The Energy issue presents different faces within the aggregated regions Special attention to the LOW (Income) & LOW (HDI) economies Quantitative interdependency between Energy and Development

11 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 11 High Income Economies (HIE) GNI > than $/ year pro capita... to 2030 Economic Growth % Population annual rate % Energy supply annual % Energy Economy is based on fossil fuel HDI mean value Environmental impact Resources Impoverishment Reliability and Security of supply Sustainable alternatives are needed Fossil fuels are due to remain relevant at least up to 2030 All alternatives need to be included Choices need to be done with individual and social responsibility Equity need to be fostered

12 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 12 GNI within $/ year pro capita... to 2030 Economic Growth % Population annual rate % Energy supply annual rate % Middle Income Economies (MIE) HSDI mean value Energy System is driven by the economic growth Economy is growing fast Energy needs as well Resources/ technologies are far from being safe and low impact Environmental attention of the energy policy is now mandatory New awareness and responsibility Adequate policies focused on the environmental and social aspect of sustainability Respect statements by the international community s (i.e. Copenhagen)

13 Energy issue in the early Third Millennium 13 GNI < 935 $/ year pro capita... to 2030 Economic Growth % Population annual rate % Energy supply annual rate % Low Income Economies (LIE) HDI mean value Energy System may not support local development Economy is growing quite fast Energy supply is due to grow Technologies are often far from being appropriate Appropriate contingency level & structural level are required They have primary sources, used only in minor part at the local level They have poor energy indicators : Energy efficiency Electric penetration Usage of new renewable Poor Innovative attitude

14 Outline 14 Introduction and Context Energy issue in the early Third Millennium Access to Energy in Low Income Economies Final consideration and action lines

15 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 15 Access to energy is not yet an opportunities 1.8 billions do not have access to electricity 80% in LIE 99% in rural area 1 further billion do not have access to reliable electric grid 90% in informal suburbs 5-15% annual outages 3 billions rely on biomass for cooking and lighting 15% efficiency 10% of fuel carbon to HC 1-2 millions deaths /y

16 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 16 Access to energy may not rely only on non-commercial biomass Environmental Human health (indoor pollution) Deforestation (not controlled) Low efficiency of end use devices Sustainability dimensions Social Children & Women take care of collecting wood Low chances for human promotion Economic Security of supply if fossil fuel are used Accessibility and Affordability 16

17 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 17 Access to energy is a social problem first, secondly a technical problem The Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development (IAEA) suggest to focus on Access to energy Equity Health Accessibility Affordability Disparities Accident fatalities Contingency Structural level level appropriate technology proper and cultural, institutional socio - political and strategy economic frames

18 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 18 Access to energy is a social problem first Ownership and commitment of local players in the LIE is mandatory as well as a full understanding of the local context Institutional Frame Cultural Frame Economic Frame Governmental institutions awareness Development aid moved to energy only recently General isolation of institutions- universities and enterprises Poor knowledge in the field of Science and Technology Low Capacity for promoting applied research Poor attitude to innovation Low financial availability: Low investment in infrastructures Proper scenarios for renewable => solution able to provide also economics: Distributed generation Mini and micro grid Stand alone apparatus Structural level

19 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 19 Access to energy is a multi-faces problem to consider from different technical perspective at least accordingly to 3 scenarios Rural area Informal Suburbs National level No access at all Stand alone solution Mini or micro grid Mix of sources... Insufficient access Problem of control Critical aspect of legality... High Investments Infrastructures Modern technologies Long term policy... Contingency level appropriate technologies

20 Access to Energy in Low Income Economies 20 Access to energy is a multi-faces problem to consider from 3 perspectives Support to the families Income based rates or tariffs or other fiscal benefit... Non conventional Economics model Cooperative or Social Enterprises... Financial instruments Microcredit for supporting local artisanal activities to activate the market... Contingency level socio-political strategy

21 21 Outline Introduction and Context Energy issue in the early Third Millennium Access to Energy in Low Income Economies Final consideration and action lines

22 Potential action lines 22 Short medium time frame Longer time frame Energy situation Primary energies are there Absolute consumptions are low Pro capita values are much less than global mean Commercial energy under used System based on traditional biomass, formally renewable but not fully sustainable Population is growing and moving to urban area Economy is growing Energy needs are growing Different level of interest Structural level Cultural, Political and Economical Contingency level Technical dimensions Appropriate technology Low impact high efficient Social Dimension Support to the families New Economics models Financial instruments Pressure on other issue Local instability Low attitude to long term vision

23 Potential action lines 23 Possible Action lines Short medium time frame to promote higher education in Science, Technology, Innovation to promote a culture of energy to support long term energy policy fostering local resources to integrate the cultural economic, social, economic aspect to foster international partnerships: NGOs and international organization, Local and international governmental institution, Universities and Entrepreneurships. to promote appropriate technology for the distributed generation (stand alone or mini grid) in rural areas, Longer time frame to increase the penetration of the commercial energies by transferring high efficiency technology for the power generation; to enforce the national and high voltage electric grid to create new market..

24 Final consideration 24 Relevance HOW Transferring the developed countries models and technology is not a solution. A joint construction of knowledge and technology is more appropriate Access to energy strongly reports to the challenge of poverty reduction Millennium Development Goals are closely related (especially 1, 7 and 8) WHAT A single solution probably does not exist for the issue Economic, cultural and environmental frames are different and need to be considered a MIX of solutions, resources, technologies and socio-political strategies designed for the local context need to be looked for and implemented in a proper structural frame Have the players of the developed countries a role to play?

25 25 Sustainable Access to energy is a global issue It is one of the more complex technical and social challenge in the early Third Millennium. Its solution is a means to foster human promotion and social development

26 L'unico modo per scoprire i limiti del possibile è avventurarsi un po' più oltre, entro l'impossibile. The only way to discover the true boundary of possible is to proceed a bit further into the impossible Blaise Pascal

27 One example to change perspective in approaching the problem of gas flaring Associated gases are mainly made by natural gas: quantities are small to develop market opportunity (economic level) CH 4 is a green house gas with an impact force 21 times grater than C0 2 (environmental level) it is a valuable energy resource compared with other fossil source (social level) Flaring is environmentally less critical than venting Flaring is a worst practice compare to standard alternatives: capture and reinjection into the oil reservoir capture and delivery to end use/market through pipelines compressed gas (CNG) liquefied natural (LNG), petroleum (LPG) gases, gas-to-liquids (GTL) on-site power generation, Russia Nigeria Iran Iraq Algeria Kazakhstan Libya Saudi Arabia Angola Qatar Uzbekistan Mexico Venezuela Indonesia USA China Oman Malaysia Canada Kuwait

28 One example to change perspective in approaching the problem of gas flaring Gas flaring is also not a technical problem Gas is a well known source of energy Small scale devices for end use are know and high efficient Macro scale plants for power generation are a standard in the sector Gas flaring is not only an environmental concern Emissions are high Emission are obtained without any benefit Gas flaring is an economic and social problem any (piece of) solution could support some other concerns access to energy in some region local development global sustainability of the energy sector Access to energy may be mitigated by achieving profit form gas flaring solutions Partnerships & Commitments of local and international players, social responsibility, reliability and an innovative approach may play a key role

29 One example to change perspective.. 29 in considering gas flaring a resource, not a waste By converting the primary energy flared for free into number of power plants a simple exercise (with all the limitation of a simple exercise) may give us some more comprehensive information The number of equivalent combined cycle power plants (800 MW) is evaluated by assuming : 1. LHV (CH4) 34.5 MJ/m 3 2. Power plant efficiency Load factor 0.85 Gas flaring might be analyzed in term of equivalent power plants and be viewed as a resource Why the world is demanding energy? What is the problem of access to energy? Where is the problem mainly located?

30 One example to change perspective.. 30 in considering gas flaring a global problem The Global Gas Flaring Reduction private public partnership An example is given by The World Bank s GGFR public-private partnership, which was launched at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in GGFR supports the efforts of oil producing countries and companies to reduce flaring and venting. GGFR partners have established a collaborative Global Standard for gas flaring reduction, providing a framework for governments, companies, and other key stakeholders to consult, take collaborative actions and reduce barriers to associated gas utilization GGFR partners include: Algeria (Sonatrach), Angola (Sonangol), Azerbaijan (SOCAR), Cameroon (SNH), Canada (CIDA), Chad, Ecuador (PetroEcuador), Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Khanty-Mansiysk (Russian Federation), Nigeria (NNPC), Norway, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (Masdar Initiative), the United States (DOE) and Uzbekistan (Uzbekneftegaz); BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ENI, ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, Maersk Oil & Gas, Shell, StatoilHydro, TOTAL, Qatar Petroleum; OPEC Secretariat, European Union, the World Bank and the IFC. It is not an issue the O&G sector may solve alone

31 One example to change perspective.. in evaluating solution or mitigation strategies Contingency level Structural level Short medium time frame To study technologies reducing cost and scale effect CNG, LPG, LNG methanol, DMT Hydrates To investigate CDM to support gas flaring reduction (EU benefit) Promote and Join global initiative (with all parties involved) To involve local government and institution to support oil companies in assessing the alternatives Longer time frame To foster market opportunities at the local level To foster market opportunities at the international level (EU benefit) Negotiate with OECD member state, or multilateral agencies for shifting a part of the development AID to support gas flaring reduction

32 L'unico modo per scoprire i limiti del possibile è avventurarsi un po' più oltre, entro l'impossibile. The only way to discover the true boundary of possible is to proceed a bit further into the impossible Blaise Pascal