LIB from a cathode point of view. Trends and Challenges Elewout Depicker May 2014

Transcription

1 LIB from a cathode point of view Trends and Challenges Elewout Depicker May 2014

2 Agenda Introduction Markets and Trends Challenges - Portable Electronics - E-Mobility - Cost pressure - Raw material quality control Key take-aways

3 Umicore Closed Loop Approach Closing the loop: from cathode material to end-of-life recycling Umicore, market leader in: Li-ion cathode materials Li-ion and NiMH battery recycling Market leader: 20+ automotive platforms in the next 1.5 years on the street. Wide range of chemistries (LCO, NMC, LFP, NCA) Already today contracts with collection networks, battery producers and automotive (Ex.: Toyota, Tesla) Recycling capacity on industrial scale Production capacity on industrial scale in four countries >15 years of track-record 3

4 Where is Umicore RBM in the value chain? supply metal product application market Co residues Portable electronics Co LCO Power tools Li Recycling & intermediates Li-ion rechargeable batteries (P)HEV / EV Ni NMC E-bikes Ni residues 4 Stationary power

5 Markets and trends Portable Electronics 2013 (LCE) 4% 31% 65% PE xev ESS 2020 (LCE) 9% 49% 42% PE xev ESS

6 Devices everywhere 1990s 2010s Lithium Conference Montreal 6

7 Consumer wearables An emerging trend Lithium Conference Montreal 7

8 Devices are changing - Thinner devices Basically more energy in a smaller space + Bigger screens + Brighter screens + More pixels + More connectivity Lithium Conference Montreal 8

9 More Energy/liter: how do we do this? Energy Liter More Active Li per cycle More Li per Liter Title and date 9

10 Portable Electronics forecast Cathodes Cathode growth coming from smartphones and tables Global Portable Electronics Market mt of cathode Notebook Smartphone Tablet Powertools Title and date 10

11 Markets and trends E-Mobility 2013 (LCE) 4% 31% 65% PE xev ESS 2020 (LCE) 9% 49% 42% PE xev ESS

12 E-Mobility is happening Reasons for acceleration in adoption High bets on xev LIB price erosion Consumer TCO improving Hybrids and start-stop are becoming mainstream Government incentives Lower emission standards Title and date 12

13 E-Mobility Forecast Cathodes Strong growth driven by EV and Other Global E-Mobility Market mt of cathode HEV PHEV EV Other Title and date 13

14 Challenges Cost Pressure Raw Material Quality Control

15 Upstream Cost Pressure Cost down mindset is needed in complete supply chain Unbalance in the supply chain not sustainable High cost down efforts by cell and (cathode) material manufacturers over the last years Increasing R&D budget to improve performance and cost of LIB Additionally, upstream cost down mindset is needed to improve TCO of LIB Recycling of metals in LIB as source of alternative and economic input cost Title and date 15

16 Upstream Cost Pressure RM have big impact when realizing cost down roadmaps Raw Materials more and more in the picture Replace or reduce expensive metal cost by alternatives For example: less Co and more Ni and Mn RM input with lowest premium will be chosen For example: lithium carbonate versus lithium hydroxide Pressure on prices raw materials For example: economies of scale cost Title and date 16

17 Raw material incoming quality control Specifications and stability 1. Specifications Physical characteristics Chemical characteristics Battery specific requirements Covered by incoming product quality control with more advanced screening techniques 2. Stability is very important criteria for industrial process, even for in-spec material 3. Foreign materials in the raw material can have detrimental effects if not detected immediately in the supply chain. Lithium Conference Title and Montreal date 17

18 Raw material incoming quality control Cost multiplicator for xev If quality control does not detect faulty raw materials Volume (mt) Multiplicator LCE 1 1 Cathode 2, Cell 1250 kwh Pack X packs Car - EV 60 cars Car - HEV 1000 cars the cost impact in the supply chain is enormous!! Title and date 18

19 Key take-aways

20 Total Market LCE for cathode materials CAGR of 13% until 2020 for LCE Global LCE forecast for LIB mt of LCE Title and date 20 PE xev ESS

21 Summary LIB has a bright future thanks to continuous growth of PE and prospective growth of e-mobility. Nevertheless, these markets can only be realized if end-customers are attracted by performance and price. The entire supply chain has to follow the cost down roadmaps required to trigger end-customers buying decision. Performance and quality are decisive Raw materials need to meet more and more stringent requirements of cathode materials and battery makers. Product quality is becoming more and more a focus point due to multiplicator effect along the supply chain. For that more sophisticated analytical tools are set in place. Lithium Conference Montreal 21

22 Q&A