STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN MALAYSIA RESEARCH FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDED ACTION PLANS

Transcription

1 STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN MALAYSIA RESEARCH FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDED ACTION PLANS DR. SAIM SURATMAN Deputy Director General National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) STAKEHOLDER FORUM FOR INCORPORATING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES POLICY ACTION PLANS 27 OCTOBER 2014 PULLMAN HOTEL, PUTRAJAYA

2 2 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

3 3 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

4 4 OVERVIEW Climate change resilience can be generally defined as the capacity for a socio-ecological system to: 1. absorb stresses and maintain function in the face of external stresses imposed upon it by climate change and 2. adapt, reorganize, and evolve into more desirable configurations that improve the sustainability of the system, leaving it better prepared for future climate change impacts. or it is the ability to survive and recover from the effects of climate change. From wikipedia and Rockefeller Foundation

5 OVERVIEW Key Area of Probable Vulnerabilities to Climate Change FLOODS An increase in extreme weather will lead to higher river flow, runoff and flooding HYDROELECTRIC POWER Changes in flow decrease clean power generation RIVER FLOW Changes in river flow impacts water supply, water quality, fisheries and recreation activities DROUGHTS Higher temperatures changes in precipitation will lead to droughts AGRICULTURE Increase demand for irrigation GROUNDWATER Lower water tables due to hydrologic changes and greater demand cause some shallow wells to go dry WATER USE Demand for agriculture, urban & environmental water will increase DELTA LEVEES Sea level rise will threaten Delta levees WATER QUALITY Salt water intrusion from rising sea levels will affect the Delta and coastal aquifers HABITAT Warmer river temperatures stress cold-water species 5

6 OVERVIEW Facts about Malaysia: Country: consist of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak; total land area 330,000 km 2 & bounded by a coastline 4800km; Climate: characterized by uniform temperature, high humidity and copious rainfall mainly due to maritime influence; Rainfall distribution: affected by the seasonal wind flow pattern coupled with the local topographic features; Annual rainfall: 2,000mm to 4,000mm; much influenced by two monsoon periods occur between November-March and May-September; Annual rainfall volume: 320 billion m 3 for Peninsular Malaysia; 194 billion m 3 for Sabah, and 476 billion m 3 for Sarawak; and more than 150 river system; Groundwater resources: (safe yield per year) 14,700 million m 3 in Peninsular Malaysia, 5,500 million m 3 in Sarawak, and 3,300 million m 3 in Sabah Main water supply: 97% sourced from rivers and reservoirs 6

7 7 Observed Climate Change in Malaysia Increased in ambient Temperature: Mean Annual Maximum Temperature: Highest changes based on 61 years record ( ) is 0.7 C per decade (Source: MMD) Rainfall Increased rainfall intensity -> 1- hour rainfall intensity ( ) increased by 17% compared to 1970s values (Source: JPS) Extremely High Intensity rainfall (540mm/day) Dec 2013: Massive floods in Kuantan & Kemaman Flood damages ~ roads, bridges, slopes, schools, houses, agriculture (Source: NAHRIM)

8 8 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

9 Regional Hydro-climate Change Studies Peninsular Malaysia (2006) 2006: A regional hydrologicatmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) was developed East Malaysia (2010) 2010: A regional hydrologicatmospheric model of East Malaysia called Regional Hydro-climate Model of Sabah and Sarawak (RegHCM-SS) was developed; 9

10 LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM PERAK [7,770km 2 ] Syed Omar MUDA [3,330km 2 ] Guillemard Bridge KELANTAN [11,900km 2 ] Jerangau Jam. Iskandar SELANGOR [1,450km 2 ] DUNGUN [1,480km 2 ] KLANG [480km 2 ] Rantau Panjang Jam. Sulaiman Temerloh PAHANG [19,000km 2 ] JOHOR [1,130km 2 ] Rantau Panjang 10

11 DESIGNATED SUB-REGIONS OF SABAH AND SARAWAK SABAH SARAWAK

12 EXTENSION OF THE STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGIC REGIMES AND WATER RESOURCES OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA 12

13 GCMs Domain km GRID EXTENSION OF THE STUDY Regional Hydro climate Model (RegHCM-PM) 2006 : RegHCM-PM downscaled Canadian (~410km resolution) to fine spatial resolution (~9km) 2013/2014: revisit hydro-climate change projection for Peninsular Malaysia. 3 GCMs MPI-ECHAM5, CCSM3 and MRI- CGCM Realizations, SRES A1B, B1, A2 and A1Fi Downscaling GCMs (~ km) to watershed scale spatial resolution of 6km Hourly time interval resolution 1 ST Domain 54x54km GRID 2 nd Domain 18x18km GRID 3 rd Domain 6x6km GRID 13

14 LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM GIS INTERPOLATI ON 6KM GRID 334 GROUND OBSERVATION RAINFALL STATIONS GEOSPATIAL MAP OF GROUND OBSERVATION RAINFALL 6KM RESOLUTION 14

15 Muda Sg. Muda di Jam. Syed Omar (Stn. No. : ) LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM Kelantan Sg. Kelantan di Jam. Guillemard (Stn. No. : ) Perak Sg. Kinta di Weir G di Tg. Tualang (Stn. No. : ) Dungun Sg. Dungun di Jam. Jerangau (Stn. No. : ) Selangor Sg. Selangor di Rantau Panjang (Stn. No. : ) Kelang Sg. Klang di Jambatan Sulaiman (Stn. No. : ) Pahang Sg. Pahang di Lubok Paku (Stn. No. : ) Linggi Sg. Liggi di Sua Betong (Stn. No. : ) Muar Sg. Muar di Buloh Kasap (Stn. No. : ) Batu Pahat Sg. Lenik di Ladang Cha ah (Stn. No. : ) Johor Sg. Johor di Rantau Panjang (Stn. No. : )

16 More extreme weather conditions in the future ( ) may be expected since higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed. Increase in maximum monthly rainfall of up to 51% over Pahang, Kelantan and Terengganu. Decrease in minimum monthly rainfall from 32% to 61% for all over Peninsular Malaysia.

17 1-DAY MAX. PRECIPITATION SG. KELANTAN SG. KEMAMAN SG. KUANTAN 1-day Max. precip.(mm) SG. JOHOR- MERSING

18 Event on 3 December Sg Kuantan

19 Event on 3 December Sg Kemaman

20 Muda 2006 & 2010 Study: Projected increase in mean surface temperature Kelantan Dungun PENINSULAR MALAYSIA o C o C o C Perak Selangor Pahang SABAH Min o c 2.31 o C Mean 1.51 o C 3.27 o C Max o C 4.01 o C Klang Johor Linggi Muar Batu Pahat SARAWAK Min o c 2.03 o C Mean 1.23 o C 3.10 o C Max o C 3.24 o C SABAH & SARAWAK Min o c 2.31 o C Mean 1.51 o C 3.27 o C Max o C 4.01 o C

21 Projected changes in mean stream flows Kelantan PENINSULAR MALAYSIA Muda Dungun m3/s m3/s m3/s Perak Selangor Pahang KEDAMAIAN (WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS) Low Flow(m3/s) 1.75/(3.40) 3.18/(3.40) High Flow(m3/s) 218.9/(100.8) 148.4/(100.80) * (3.40) simulated historical period Klang Johor WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS WATER SUPPLY Linggi Muar Batu Pahat WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS FLOODS WATER SUPPLY FLOODS WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS FLOODS SARAWAK R. (FLOODS) Low Flow(m3/s) 2.91/(4.05) 6.16/(4.05) High Flow(m3/s) 89.42/(98.42) /(98.42)

22 RegHCM-PM2 Simulated Average, Maximum and Minimum mean monthly discharge (cms) at selected watersheds, and periods Higher Lower

23 Max. 1-Day Rain (mm) Max. 1-Day Rain (mm) Max. Max. 1-Day 1-Day Rain Rain (mm) (mm) Max. 1-Day Rain (mm) Realtive Temp. Rise ( C) Realtive Temp. Rise ( C) Realtive Realtive Temp. Temp. Rise Rise ( C) ( C) Projected extreme Rainfall events: Peninsular Malaysia KELANTAN TERENGGANU PERAK JOHOR PAHANG Ibu Bekalan JKR Spg. Mawai Kuala Sedili Taiping Ldg. G. Kg Brinchang Menerong Kerilla mm 462.6mm Jan mm 856.7mm 545mm 19 7 Nov 15 Nov Projection Year 2041 ( ) Projection Year 2041 ( ) Projection Year ( ) Projection Year ( ) Relative Temperature Rise YEAR 1-DAY DESIGN RAINFALL GREATEST RECORDED MAX. 1-DAY RAIN Frequency of Max 1D rainfall exceeding 100yr ARI rainfall

24 Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Projected extreme Rainfall - SARAWAK KUCHING ( ) Year HIGHEST RAINFALL RECORD Date: 21 Disember 1979 Locality: Bukit Peninjau,Miri Jumlah: 724mm PROJECTED HIGHEST RAINFALL Date: 2048 ( ) Total [areal]: 505mm 600 KUCHING ( ) 350 KUCHING ( ) Year Year

25 Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Max. 1 Day Rain (mm) Projected extreme Rainfall - SABAH Sandakan ( ) HIGHEST RAINFALL RECORD Date: 8 Februari 1996 Locality: Bkt Garam,Sandakan Jumlah: 475mm Year PROJECTED HIGHEST RAINFALL Date: 2012,2032, 2077, 2078 Total [areal]: 412, 415, 402mm Sandakan ( ) Sandakan ( ) Year Year

26 26 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

27 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES SECTOR 1) Water Resources 2) Agriculture 3) Forestry 4) Biodiversity 5) Public Health 6) Energy 7) Infrastructure 8) Socio-Economic DROUGHT

28 IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES SECTOR Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) Increase in severity of floods Increase in soil erosion -> scouring of drainage structures and sedimentation in rivers Water shortage (drought) Reduced inflows to reservoirs Reduced stream-flows -> affect raw water abstraction Reduced recharge of groundwater

29 Precipitation (mm) Precipitation (mm) Example of detailed results on the changes of the hydrologic regime and water resources due to Climate Changes Sungai Selangor watersheds Control CCSM3 A1B Ensemble of Basin-Average Annual Precipitation Simulations CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 During Historical and Future Conditions Control CCSM3 A1FI for Selangor Watershed Control run (Ensemble avg.) Control CCSM3 A1B CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 CCSM3 A1FI MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B Projections Ensemble Average (control run) 10-yr Mov. Avg. CCSM3 A1B CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 CCSM3 A1FI MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B1-3 MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B1-3 Ensemble Average (15 projections) 10-yr Mov. Avg. Confidence band (95 %)

30 Flow (cms) Flow (cms) Control Ensemble of Annual Mean Flow Simulations during Historical and Future Periods at Outlet of Sg. Selangor CCSM3 Watershed A1FI Control run (Ensemble avg.) Control CCSM3 A1B CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 CCSM3 A1FI MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B Projections Ensemble Average (control run) 10-yr Mov. Avg. Control CCSM3 A1B CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 CCSM3 A1FI MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B1-3 CCSM3 A1B CCSM3 A2 CCSM3 B1 MRI A1B MRI B1 ECHAM5 A1B1 ECHAM5 A1B2 ECHAM5 A1B3 ECHAM5 A2-1 ECHAM5 A2-2 ECHAM5 A2-3 ECHAM5 B1-1 ECHAM5 B1-2 ECHAM5 B1-3 Ensemble Average (15 projections) 10-yr Mov. Avg. Confidence band (95 %)

31 Mean Monthly Flow (cms) Mean Monthly Flow (Selangor Watershed) 160 Early 21 st century ( ) Mid 21 st century ( ) Historical ( ) Projected % confidence band 160 End of 21 st century ( ) Month

32 IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES SECTOR Change in Water Quality Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) Increase in pollution: litters, nutrients and sediments Water shortage (drought) Concentrated pollutant level in streams 12 Oct Oct 2012

33 Impacts of Sea Level Rise Results from SLR Study 2010 * IPCC (AR4 2007) Source: NAHRIM (2010). Malaysia Global Tide gauge ( ) * Satellite Altimetry ( ) * SLR Rates (mm/year) National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)

34 Results from SLR Study 2010 Source: NAHRIM (2010). Projection on Sea Level Rise at 2100 for Malaysia Sea Level Rise Note Projection 2100 (Peninsular Malaysia) Projection 2100 (Sabah & Sarawak) 0.25m 0.52m ( mm/yr) 0.43m 1.06m ( mm/yr) Maximum SLR Northeast and West coast of Peninsular Malaysia (Kelantan & Kedah) 1. Maximum SLR North & East coast of Sabah. 2. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in Southwest coast of Sarawak (Meradong, located between Batang Igan & Batang Rajang). 3. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in East coast of Sabah (Tawau, Semporna, Lahad Datu, Sandakan & Kudat). National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)

35 Results from SLR Study 2010 Source: NAHRIM (2010). Satellite altimetry locations Projections of SLR at 2100 (in meter) National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)

36 Change in diffuse recharge due to change in rainfall, Change in river recharge due to change in river stage, Temperature affects on evapotranspiration. 2) Change in Discharge Increase in demand for extraction, Due to changes in river stage. 3) Change in Storage Due to change in recharge, Due to change in extraction, Due to sea level rise leads to saline intrusion.

37 Further encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and coastal river systems Impact: (1) Damage to infrastructure (2) Degradation of agricultural areas (3) Contamination of surface water (4) Loss of biodiversity Contamination to soil and groundwater Encroachment of water into underground systems (septic tanks, landfills/open dumps, drainage) Extension of coastal inundation area Rising of water table Movement of Saltwater Freshwater Interface landward and upward Groundwater salinization Impact: (1) Degrades the quality of water resources (2) Reduces the quantity of water available for consumption (domestic, industrial and agriculture)

38 38 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

39 39 Ongoing Adaptation studies (2014): 1. Study on vulnerability and adaptation of climate change impact on floods in selected river basins. 2. Impact of climate changes on water resources for selected plantation areas in Malaysia for Paddy, Rubber and Oil Palm. 3. Study on vulnerability, adaptation and assessment for water resources and dam storage capacity under climate change impacts scenario.

40 Adaptations in Water Resources Sector TECHNICAL GUIDELINES FOR WATER AND COASTAL RESOURCES ADAPTATION NAHRIM Technical Guide No.2 : NAHRIM Technical Guide No.1 : Estimation of Future Design Rainstorm under the Climate Change Scenario in Peninsular Malaysia. for Policy makers, planners and implementing agencies in program planning, design and development of related infrastructure sectors of water, energy and agriculture, particularly in the development of engineering practices, disaster risk management and security of supply of water, energy and food The Design Guide for Rainwater Harvesting Systems for appropriate application and installation of RWS Nahrim sea level rise study: Information and inundation maps effects of sea level rise for the relevant agencies in planning coastal development plans, such as the control of coastal structures (breakwater, bund, groin, etc.), roads, coastal development platform level and design of ports and jetties

41 Pump system to pump rainwater to lake through a water feature Rainwater Harvesting Systems 5000m 2 of rainwater catchment area 500m 3 underground water tank Oil & grease trap Filter sump Use of rainwater as a source of water supply to Tunku Abdul Rahman Zoo Negara. 500m 3 storage for the daily supply of 30m 3. Rainwater harvested from the roof, and the parking lot stand the catchment area of 5000m 2.

42 NAHRIM INTELLIGENT FLOOD WALL (NFLOW) Floods 20 cm Lid and break-water of Stainless steel Flood level Floating wall 12 cm Lid 38 cm Closing level 50 cm Filling pit Filling pipe Drainingpipe with Checkvalve Foundation River 60 cm 100 cm Azobe Support blocks finishing touch with stones 80 cm Grass or pavement 185 cm Concrete basin sand 80 cm 180 cm 105 cm NFLOW is an automatic flood wall. It operates by itself during the rise of the flood water. During flood, the flood wall will rise automatically and when the flood recedes the wall will lower down by itself.

43 Study on Economic of Climate Change for Malaysia Analysis on economic of adaptation to climate change in the water resources sector: 1) Floods Iskandar Malaysia Development Region (Pulai, Skudai Tebrau river basins) 2) Droughts - water supply:- Kedah and Muda river basins, MADA irrigation area.

44 ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR FLOOD MAPS SG KEDAH Time horizon m Area for flood depth (km 2 ) m >1.2 m Sum Baseline ARI = annual recurrence interval

45 ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR FLOOD MAPS SG SKUDAI Time horizon m Area for flood depth (km 2 ) m >1.2 m Sum Baseline

46 COASTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX CVI Coastal Vulnerability Rank Area 5 Very High 6 areas (Teriang River Mouth; LKIM Aquaculture Farm; Kuah Town; Beringin Viilage until Penarak Village; Kilim River Mouth; and Tg. Rhu Beach). 4 High 9 areas (Teriang River Mouth until Melaka River Mouth ; Melaka River Mouth; Meritus Pelangi Beach & Spa Resort; Kuah Town; Dataran Lang; Kuah Jetty & Marina; TNB Power Station Apau Village; and Pasir Tengkorak Beach). 3 Moderate 6 areas (area beside Chenang River; Meritus Pelangi Beach & Spa Resort, Chenang; Kuah Town; Kuah area; Bella Vista Resort; and Teluk Yu Public Park) 2 Low 4 areas (Langkawi Sheraton Beach Resort, Kuala Teriang; Chenang River Mouth; Temoyang River Mouth; and Bella Vista Beach) 1 Very Low 1 area (Temoyang River Mouth)

47 Coastal Vulnerability Index Very High High Moderate Low Very Low

48 R&D On Groundwater (Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts) 1) Bank infiltration (BI): A case study for alluvial river bank 2) Study on the effectiveness of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) technique for the groundwater resources management in Pulau Tioman

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50 OUTLINE INTRODUCTION NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

51 51 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION Addressing climate change requires a dual approach which integrates 1. mitigation actions aimed at reducing the sources or enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases and 2. adaptation or resilience building dealing with the residual impacts of and opportunities presented by climate change.

52 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION The hydro-climate data over Peninsular Malaysia (PM) for the 21 st century, generated by NAHRIM RegHCM- PM2, (hourly intervals at the scale of hill slopes of 11 selected watersheds for 1440 years) provides significant opportunity to the National Stakeholders to re-evaluate the PM s water resources and its existing and planned hydraulic structures under the hydro-climate conditions of the next 90 years of the 21 st century with respect to:

53 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION A: Floods: The capacities of the existing and planned dam spillways The capacities of the existing and planned flood levees The flood operation rules for the existing and planned dams Delineation of flood zones for the important urban and industrial areas under various return period flood magnitudes (peaks and volumes) during the 21 st century;

54 DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION B. Droughts/Water Supply Evaluation of existing/planned dam reservoir capacities, and revising their dimensions, if necessary; Development of the operation rules of existing/ planned dams In order to meet the specified water demands during the 21 st century: utilise the hydro-climate conditions at the particular drainage areas of the specified dams, already simulated by this study at 11 selected watersheds of PM. Dam operation studies that can be performed by means of the projected dam inflows (already simulated by this study) can determine the necessary reservoir capacities in order to meet the critical water demands during future droughts with their quantified risks.

55 RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC) Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment Malaysia Officially launched by the Honorable Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia in August 2010; Established for ensuring climate-resilience development to fulfill national aspiration for sustainability Policy objectives: mainstreaming climate change through wise management of resources and enhanced environmental conservation resulting in strengthened economic competitiveness and improved quality of life; integration of responses into national policies, plans and programs to strengthen the resilience of development from arising and potential impacts of climate change; strengthening of institutional and implementation capacity to better harness opportunities to reduce negative impacts of climate change. - Green technology shall be a driver to accelerate the national economy and promote sustainable development;

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