The Urban Co-benefits approach: Methods and tools

Transcription

1 The Urban Co-benefits approach: Methods and tools Christopher Doll Research Fellow United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability Seminar on Low Carbon City Development Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization Mida Resort City, Bangkok, 30 March

2 Outline Introduction Urban development with co-benefits How much (quantification) ASI framework and transport tool Energy tool Waste tool How come (dimensions of decision making) Further considerations 2

3 About me.. Born in London, UK.. BSc. Geography & Mathematics MSc. Remote Sensing PhD. Remote Sensing Earth Columbia U., New York City IIASA, Austria Research Interests Applications of geospatial technologies to sustainable development Climate change and biodiversity in cities Urbanization processes 3

4 The UNU and its Institutes UNU-CRIS [regional integration] UNU-EHS [environment & human security] UNU-FLORES [material fluxes & resources] UNU-IAS [advanced study for sustainability] UNU-IIAOC [alliance of civilizations] UNU-IIGH [global health] UNU-IIST [software technology] UNU-INRA [Africa's natural resources] UNU-INWEH [water, environment, health] UNU-MERIT [society, economy, innovation] UNU-WIDER [development economics] 4

5 The Urban Sustainability Nexus: Challenges - Approaches - Outputs Urbanisation Processes Our focus - Cities and climate change - Cities and biodiversity - Urban health Sustainability Stresses Our outputs - Peer-reviewed research - Practical tools - Collaboration with international partners & networks Local Government Solutions Our approach - Systems thinking - Interdisciplinary - Linking local and global processes

6 Cities and Sustainable Development Cities just 3-4% of the area, but concentrate more than 50% of the world population The economic activities located in cities account for 55% - 85% GNP. More than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions.. Cities are centers of education, knowledge and innovation both technological and institutional that can make the transition to a greener economy and better governance within and beyond the cities. 6

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8 Only 8% live in clean air, 37 % (3/4 billion people) live outside minimum WHO target Doll, 2009; IPCC WGIII, Fig

9 Urban Climate Co-Benefits Urban climate co-benefits are the contribution of one city to the reduction of global environmental degradation and achievement of local sustainable development goals at the same time.

10 Aligning global & local environment concerns with development 10

11 The vicious cycle of waste 11

12 The virtuous cycle of waste 12

13 Urban Development with co-benefits 13

14 Urban development with co-benefits approach The Co-benefits approach is a means of achieving multiple outcomes with one policy initiative Here, it refers to policies which simultaneously address global and local environmental problems; GHG and air pollution reductions Particularly pertinent for developing countries Case study approach to evaluate: How much? How come? Develop support tools 14

15 Why co-benefits? Post Kyoto-CDM, Increasing focus on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and thematic windows such as transport Recent Rio+20 conference theme Green Economy and the Institutional Framework for sustainable development (governance) Focus on cities because they are the most environmental policies have to be locally implemented Most people live in cities, opportunities for innovation Level of government closest to citizens Possible Urban Sustainable Development Goal (Sept.2015) 15

16 Urban development with co-benefits approach The Co-benefits approach is a means of achieving multiple outcomes with one policy initiative Here, it refers to policies which simultaneously address global and local environmental problems; GHG and air pollution reductions Particularly pertinent for developing countries Case study approach to evaluate: How much? How come? Develop support tools 16

17 The tools Excel based: Transport; Energy; Waste, Governance (for transport) Designed to evaluate co-benefits of interventions into respective sectors for first order policy screening Four basic steps to the tools: Input data Examine initial baseline/results Apply changes to the sector (Avoid, Shift, Improve) Calculate co-benefits GHG emissions Local Air pollution, fuel saving etc 17

18 ASI framework (Avoid, shift, improve) Initially developed in the transport sector, it frames policy choices into the following categories which aim to improve local/global pollution AVOID Doing less of the activity in question (E.g. Alter total waste generation and/or waste composition) SHIFT Do the current activity in a different way (e.g. solar panels rather than fossil fuels) IMPROVE Improve the efficiency of the activities (change technology of existing methods) 18

19 ASI example: Transport why does mode share matter? Avoid motorised transport Improve car technology Shift car users to buses 19

20 Policy scenario sheet Transport Activity (A) Mode Share (S) Fuel Efficiency (I) Fuel share (F) below 20

21 Data requirements For each tool a set of basic information for each sector will need to be established This provides a baseline upon which to calculate emissions reductions Tools are somewhat flexible to the scale of the what is being considered (e.g. certain transport fleets or areas of the city) 21

22 Common elements Bottom up assessments of GHG emissions and air pollution in each sector based on local information Transport Fleet size, activity (distance), occupancy, fuel efficiencies & fuel Energy Dwelling size distribution, economic sectors, power plant sources Waste Waste generation, technologies waste composition 22

23 Avoid, shift, improve ASI framework is applied to the tools in each sector Transport Travel activity (fleet size & distance) Mode share Fuel efficiency Fuel Type Energy Dwelling sizes Building management Energy sources (local generation) Waste Waste generation, waste composition Waste processing method (compost, incineration..) Technology used within a processing method 23

24 Energy tool 24

25 Basic City profile data: City climate and structure 25

26 Data for commercial and service sectors 26

27 Sources of city power supply 27

28 Policy Intervention (1): Structural change in the city 28

29 Policy Intervention (2): Alternative Energy measures 29

30 Policy Intervention (3): Energy efficiency devices 30

31 Features of energy tool Allows for assessment of costs and payback time of low carbon technologies 31

32 Waste tool 32

33 Solid waste management tool Life cycle assessment approach which considers: Volume and composition of waste transportation of waste processing of the waste benefits from recycling Can specify in general according to population or by processing technique if data available 33

34 Input Data Features of waste management tool Total Solid Waste Fuel /Electricity Consumption for Operational Activities Fraction of Solid Waste in Each Technology Composting Anaerobic Digestion Landfilling Open- Dumping Transportation Composition of Solid Waste to Landfill Default Values (e.g. CO2 Emission Factor, CH4 Emission Factor, ) Calculations 2.1 Composting and Anaerobic Digestion Operation GHG Emission Process GHG Emission GHG Mitigation by Using Compost in Agriculture GHG Mitigation by Removing waste from Landfill 2.2 Landfilling and Open-Dumping Results Operation GHG Emission CH4 Generation Quantification of GHG Emission Total Potential from an Integrated Waste Management System 34

35 Data requirements - waste Basic information on total waste generation, composition and processing technology Can define waste composition by process (allows to track waste separation) 35

36 Data input

37 Avoid Alter total waste generation and/or waste composition Shift Shift compositions of waste to other processing technologies Improve Alter the technological specifications of waste processing technologies (e.g. methane recovery), also changes to waste transportation. A,S,I of waste

38 Results summary 38

39 Co-benefits Transport GHG emissions Air pollution Fuel demand Energy GHG emissions Air pollution Energy balance Cost-benefit analysis Waste GHG emissions Air pollution Lechate production (landfill) Electricity/heat generation potential 39

40 Urban development with co-benefits approach The Co-benefits approach is a means of achieving multiple outcomes with one policy initiative Here, it refers to policies which simultaneously address global and local environmental problems; GHG and air pollution reductions Particularly pertinent for developing countries Case study approach to evaluate: How much? How come? Develop support tools 40

41 Governance indicators Developed currently for the transport sector to aid decision making about what changes to make in the tool Self assessment of context indicators to determine capacities and most implementable projects Cultural/Lifestyle Legal Orgainisational Coordination Political The key question is what is your ability to change one variable relative to another? 41

42 Flexible framework for extension to other sectors Context Ranks relative importance of 11 factors upon which AHP is used to determine priorities Specific Policies (e.g. transport) 42

43 Governance Tool structure General Governance Specific Policies (e.g. transport) 43

44 Governance indicators Developed currently for the transport sector to aid decision making about what changes to make in the tool Self assessment of context indicators to determine capacities and most implementable projects Cultural/Lifestyle Legal Orgainisational Coordination Political The key question is what is your ability to change one variable relative to another? 44

45 Prioritizing conditions (partial screenshot) 45

46 Ranked policy measures

47 Link to the tool

48 Two modes of usage If no policies under consideration: Assess context Determine governance abilities (AHP) Determine most implementable options Determine coherent policy package Set parameter sensitivity of change for transport tool If policies are in mind: Determine policy coherence of policies Assess context (AHP) Identify key governance areas of high risk Work out how to strengthen critical areas of governance

49 Assessing capacities Simple way of looking at assessing a range of low-carbon policies From an objective view, a city has a certain capacity in these factors Helps generate different perspectives Look at sensitivities, get a feel for the policy landscape One element of the multi-criteria approach to be evaluated with other co-benefits such as health, or cost Or.., as an aid to implementation 49

50 OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROMOTING URBAN CO- BENEFITS Discussions of Co-benefits has emerged in several organizations: Opportunities in the Policy Arena Short Term- Straight forward initiatives using simple technologies E.g., waste management, 3R. Medium Term: require larger investments and the projects can have a high institutional complexity, and consequently high risks and transaction costs E.g., transportation, and industry and energy sector. Long Term Areas with slow changing paths and involving a larger set of integrated initiatives and standards E.g.,: building and land-use sectors, consumption 50

51 Case Study Analysis: Solid Waste Management, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Figure 10 - Correlation between among of CBSWM group and volume of disposal solid waste into the landfill in Yogyakarta city The growth of CBSWM in last 7 years shows correlation to waste generation and disposal into landfill. Figure 4 shows there is a decreasing of solid waste about 28 % from 2008 until

52 System innovation for co-benefits Examples cited here occur in different domains (technology, policy, society) And at different scales Spatial, system, temporal 52

53 Complexity increase Climate Change and Cities Mitigation and Adaptation Sectoral issues (energy, transportation) Physical issues (buildings) Land use issues (urban form, heat islands) Regional issues (effects on economy of the region) Green Agenda issues (consumption)

54 Cities and the Green Economy Greening of city sectors The challenges Decision-making related Implementation capacity Green economy initiatives need to address both efficiency and demand to avoid Jevon s paradox Resource efficiency + reduction of ecological footprint 54

55 Conclusion Co-benefits are a way of looking at the impacts of low carbon technologies in terms of local environmental pollution Co-benefit tools have been developed in waste, energy and transport to quantify the effect of emissions reductions Decision making tools for each sector provide a link on what factors in the city administration may be important for implementation 55

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57 Guidebooks for Evaluation tools and Governance tools 57

58 Thank you Christopher Doll 58