Public Acceptance: Story in Three Acts

Transcription

1 Public Acceptance: Story in Three Acts Jeremy Firestone Center for Power-free Carbon Integration University of Delaware 23 April 2009 Great Lakes Wind Council

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3 Act One: Residents Most of Cape Cod s energy is from an oil/natural gas fired plant on the Cape, which is 14 miles from Hyannis Port A 50-year old coal plant is located 9 miles from nearest portion of Delaware coast & 12 miles from the resort town, Rehoboth Beach 3

4 Cape Wind Proposed Offshore Wind Farm Cape Wind DEIS

5 Bluewater Wind Proposed Offshore Wind Farm (c) 2008 Bluewater Wind, reprinted by permission 5

6 Resident Mail Surveys Cape Cod & Islands (Winter 2005) Stratified by County 38.5% returned Delaware (Fall 2006) Stratified, with oversampling in Ocean and Bay areas Inland Bay (respondents 4 miles from coast on average) Ocean (respondents 0.6 miles from coast on average) 52% returned Before Bluewater Wind Bid announced 6

7 2005 Cape Cod support for the Cape Wind Project Formed opinion Leaning Total Support 24.6% 19.2% 43.8% Oppose 42.4% 13.1% 55.5% Not made up mind 32.3% 0.7% 0.7% This question simply described the project (130 turbines, 423 feet high, etc), without giving positive and negative environmental or economic attributes, and without comparing it to other generation sources. 7

8 Delaware support for a similarlysized wind project 6 miles offshore Statewide % Ocean % Ocean View % Inland 2 nd home % Support Oppose Unsure

9 Side-by-Side Comparison Delaware Cape Cod Sample or subsample Ocean Ocean View All View of Wind Farm Support (%) Oppose (%) Unsure (%)

10 What are main reasons for your for opposition & support? (partial list) Supporters Opponents Cape Cod DE Ocean Cape Cod DE Ocean Env tl Impacts 48% 29% 65% 71% Aesthetics 14% 25% 51% 86% Fishing /Boating Safety 15% 24% 50% 40% Electricity Rates 47% 56% 20% 14% Air Quality 23% 46% 3% 0% Private Use of Public Lands 5% 0% 15% 2%

11 Why the DE:CC difference? Reason Unusually well-financed Cape Wind opposition Support/opposition hypothetical in Delaware Differences in Climate Change Views DE concern over effects of fossil fuel generation & to lesser extent rate stability Place attachment to semi-enclosed areas Private usurpation (procedural justice?) Yes/No N N N Y Y Y Press Coverage? 11

12 Accuracy in Visual Assessments < Computer graphic 2003 Photo 2006 > Pre visualization of the Horns Rev wind farm from Blåvands Huk (above) and actual post construction photograph from Blåvands Huk (below). Credit: DONG Energy, Denmark 12

13 Primary Human Field of View Horizontal 124 o Simulation Source- Macro works Vertical 55 o 13

14 0.9 miles 3.6 miles 6 miles 13.8 miles Simulations courtesy of Cape Wind

15 Understanding Tradeoffs: Choice Modeling Provide individuals with a choice among options that are comprised of: Specified attributes at varying levels A status quo option (coal or natural gas) Attribute Location Distance (miles) Royalty fund Renewable Payment (annual) Monthly renewable energy fee (for 3 yrs) Levels Delaware Bay Ocean North Ocean South 0.9; 3.6; 6; 9; To far to see (w/photo simulations) Beach nourishment fund Green energy fund General fund $1 million $2 million $8 million $0; $1; $5; $10; $20; $30

16 Offshore wind vs. coal or natural gas If same initial price 95% prefer Wind If wind $1-30 per month more for 3 years 91% prefer wind 16

17 Annual external cost in perpetuity per household (by distance turbines from coast and HH location) $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 Ocean Bay Inland $20.00 $ Miles from the Coast Wind farms are a disamenity; especially for ocean area residents BUT marginal benefits level off quickly, beginning around 6 miles offshore 17

18 Offshore wind preferred to fossil fuels except at very close distances even among those living near shore Prefer wind if distance is greater than 1.03 miles from shore

19 Act Two: Out-of-State Tourist Survey: Delaware Beaches & Boardwalks Beaches and Boardwalks Three tourist town beaches Two boardwalks Three State Park Beaches 1076 completed surveys 81% response rate 19

20 Changes in beach visitation at varying wind farm distances 0.9 mi. 6 mi mi. Out of sight Same beach 55.3% 73.9% 93.7% 99.4% Different beach in Delaware No Delaware beach 35.0% 18.9% 4.3% 0.3% 9.7% 7.2% 2.0% 0.3% Q: Please consider your current visit to this beach and how it might have changed if a 200-turbine wind farm was located offshore. Some people, for example, would have still visited this beach regardless of whether a wind farm was located offshore, while others might have decided to switch to a different beach. If a wind farm existed at this beach miles from shore, I would have visited:

21 Tourism Economic Development at beach adjacent to offshore wind farm Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Very Unlikely Visit unfamiliar beach 36% 30% 15% 18% Take boat tour 16% 29% 23% 32% 21

22 Act Three: Bluewater Wind PPA All-source, in-state power bid mandated by 2006 state law Primary criteria in the law Price stability Reductions in environmental impacts 22

23 Power Purchase Agreement 25 year fixed price contract, with 2.5% inflator Ratepayers pay only for energy actually delivered Risk of nonperformance/cost-overruns on Bluewater Project to cost ratepayers $0.70/month Operational not before 2012 Energy cents/kwh (2007$) Capacity cents/kwh (2007$) Renewable Energy Credits - $15.32/REC (2007$) Legislation multiplied Delmarva s credit for RECs it purchased from this project, effectively providing Bluewater with additional RECs it could sell on the market 23

24 Offshore Wind Value: Summer Load Match Figure 1-3 from PJM 24

25 What changed in Delaware Level of public involvement Historically low Too technical/too much work to figure out

26 Why the Change? Indian River Power plant Citizen concern over power plant health impacts

27 and a Vision of Wind Clean, non-polluting, sustainable On the forefront and the pride that goes with that Looking for something bigger than themselves Redefining government, redefining progress

28 And Growing public concern over climate change Proposal to build another big coal plant Anger over 59% electricity rate hike

29 Curtin Call Distance from shore, while important, not as important as believed by wind industry and policymakers Individuals, even coastal residents. are willing to support in-view developments Marginal benefits of more distance level off after 6-9 miles or

30 Conclusions (2) Place attachment more important than viewshed, per se Bays, sounds, semi-enclosed areas may be different (e.g., Grand/Little Traverse Bays) May be difference between how we view land and seascapes The opposition should not be stereotyped as only rich people who don t want windmills in their view 30

31 Implications for increasing acceptance Increased public control could play an important role Siting to minimize avian/marine mammal impacts critical 31

32 Implications for Tourism Reported tourist attraction > avoidance Suggests role for boat tours and visitor centers 32

33 Example offshore system layout from: Søren Juel Petersen, Rambøll Wind Energy (talk at UD, 2 Oct 06) 33

34 Much thanks owed to Willett Kempton, George Parsons, Andrew Krueger, and Meredith Blaydes Funders 34