Hannah Daly. Energy Express Seminar. Energy Analyst World Energy Outlook, IEA. University of Queensland, May 23 rd 2018 OECD/IEA 2017 OECD/IEA 2017

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1 Hannah Daly Energy Analyst World Energy Outlook, IEA Energy Express Seminar University of Queensland, May 23 rd 2018

2 Context The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals recognise energy access as the golden thread that weaves together human development, economic growth & sustainability This report finds that today, 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking Women without access bear the burden, spending over 5 hours each day gathering wood & cooking on polluting stoves, linked to 2.8 million premature deaths each year The declining costs of renewables and digital technologies are transforming the electricity access landscape But is this new political momentum & technology progress enough to bring universal access to modern energy?

3 Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions Population without electricity access Million people 600 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia Other Asia India Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but despite recent progress efforts in sub-saharan Africa need to redouble

4 Million people Million people/year India charges ahead on universal access to electricity Rural & urban population with & without electricity Rural population: 800 Without access With access 600 Urban population: 400 Without access With access Number of people gaining access each year Decentralised Renewables Renewables Other Gas Coal Thanks to strong policy support, half a billion people have gained access in India since 2000, mostly via grid connections and coal

5 Achieving access for all by 2030

6 A shift in the electricity access paradigm Population gaining access by source Other, 7% Gas 19% Coal 45% Renewables Grid 30% 27% Renewables 30% Gas 9% Coal 16% Other 14% Grid 23% Decentralised Fossil fuels 38% 39% Renewables 61% Renewables 61% Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas

7 An IEA strategy to universal electricity access Least-cost solution for delivering universal electricity access in the Energy for All Case, 2030 Grid extension for 150 million additional people, with hydro accounting for the lion s share On-Grid Mini-Grid Off-Grid Existing grid Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the remaining 450 million people in rural areas An additional $26 billion per year is needed in electricity generation and grids In 2030, 90% of those without access in sub-saharan Africa are in rural areas; electricity for all needs an acceleration in the deployment of decentralised systems

8 Flexible & pragmatic electrification strategies are needed Papua, Indonesia East Java, Indonesia The best electrification strategy depends on geography, energy demand, population density, and technology costs

9 Clean cooking for all: what will it take? Global population without access to clean cooking Clean fuels and technologies used for cooking in developing countries in the Energy for All Case, 2030 Million people Other, 2% 10% Electricity 17% Biomass (improved) 16% Asia Today 2030 Gas 35% 90% LPG 30% The deployment of a range of clean fuels and technologies can lower premature deaths related to household air pollution from 2.5 to 0.7 million in 2030

10 Realising energy for all won t cost the earth Additional impact of the Energy for All Case relative to the Central Scenario, % Increase in global energy investment 1.8 Million deaths avoided annually 2 Months of work saved annually per woman 0% Net increase in greenhouse-gas emissions The benefits of achieving universal energy access by 2030 far outweigh the costs

11 Conclusions Achieving energy for all is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially for improving livelihoods, health, gender equality and education Policy efforts are key to the attainment of universal electricity access Policy should enable a wide-range of fit-for-purpose solutions Enabling policies for off-grid sector can opening new rural electrification opportunities Energy efficiency should be at the heart of electrification strategies Providing modern energy for productive uses is essential to meet all SDGs Universal clean cooking access won t be achieved unless it is elevated on the political agenda Energy access and climate goals are not in conflict The IEA will continue to lead in providing data, analysis and policy guidance to support governments & the international community to achieve SDG 7

12 Explore the data behind the Energy Access Outlook-2017 Download the free report and country-by-country database covering >140 countries: &

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14 Achieving SDG 7 in Developing Asia SDG 7.1: Share of population with modern energy access SDG 7.2: Renewable energy share in final energy consumption SDG 7.3: Energy intensity (toe/$1000 GDP (MER)) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 40% 30% 20% 10% Clean cooking access Electricity access Renewable energy share of TFC incl. traditional use of biomass Energy intensity (toe/$1000 GDP) Target The New Policies Scenario sees substantial progress in all SDG 7 targets, but universal access to clean cooking remains elusive