Energy Technology Vision 2035

Transcription

1 Energy Technology Vision 2035 Rangan Banerjee Dept Of Energy Science and Engg IIT Bombay National Conference on Technology Vision, 2035 Mumbai, April 18,

2 Energy Technology Vision To provide affordable access to energy services for all Indians enabling an improved quality of life To develop sustainable energy systems for the future To ensure security of energy supply 2

3 India and World (Selected Indicators for 2013) Population 1250 million 7118 million GDP (PPP) 5846 Billion 2005 US$ Billion 2005 US$ (4677 $/person) (12129 $/person) Primary Energy 22 EJ 569 EJ Energy/person 26.6 GJ/person/year 84.4 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 780 kwh/capita/year 3030 kwh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1869 Million tonnes Million tonnes 1.5 tonnes /capita/year 4.52 tonnes /capita/year 0.32 kg /US$ ppp 0.57 kg /US$ ppp Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics

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5 Primary Energy Mix Coal Oil and Gas Renewables and Nuclear

6 Power Generation Supply mix 0 Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 80% Thermal 60% Nuclear 40% 20% Renewables (incl Hydro) 0

7 India Share by electricity generation Fossil fuel Nuclear and Renewables Hydro

8 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity 8 Renewable Generation Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

9 Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind % Biomass & Bagasse % Small Hydro % Waste to Energy % 504 Solar PV % 9233 Total % *as on MNRE website: 9

10 Human Development Index (HDI) HDI and Electricity consumption (2013) Germany Switzerland Australia United States China India Pakistan Zimbabwe 2035 India World Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kwh)

11 Comparison of Supply technologies Generation Technology SIZE RANGE (GW) COSTCrores / MW Rs/ kwh CAPACITY FACTOR AREA (m 2 /GW h) CO 2 Equivalent (gc0 2 /kwh) WATER l/mwh COAL CCGT SOLAR PV SOLAR THERMAL HYDRO NUCLEAR WIND

12 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate) - Electricity- High Coal (A) Supply Scenario (BAU) Projections for 2035 Coal Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewabl es Total % Electricity Supply Share 66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100% Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

13 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)- Electricity- High Renewables (B) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Renewables High) Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewabl es Projections for 2035 Coal Total % Electricity Supply Share 50% 12% 2% 3% 11% 22% 100% Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

14 Supply Scenarios for 2035 (BAU- Moderate)- Electricity- High Nuclear (C) Supply Scenario Green (Coal Low, Nuclear High, Renewables Moderately High ) Projections for 2035 Coal Natural Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewables % Electricity Supply Share 40% 12% 2% 13% 11% 22% Tota l 100 % Electricity Supply/ year (in billion kwh) Average Load Factor 70% 70% 16% 70% 38% 26% Installed Capacity (in GW)

15 Demand Summary ector Buildings Transport Industry AU x E x O x C Goal < 2 x E 2010 < 2 x O x C 2010 ocus areas Systems thinking Improvement of new stock Embodied resources R&D in new materials and technologies echnologies Green buildings Sustainable Materials ( zero emissions concrete, composites, flyash, earth and stone blocks, recycling of debris, UPVC, recycled surfaces) Efficiency and conservation (e.g., insulation, passive solar, BLDC fans, LED lights, hybrid AC) Improved operations and management Multi-modal public transit Urban planning ICT enabled public transit CNG, hybrid and electric vehicles Improved Electric Vehicles (low loss motor tech, AC induction motors copper motor rotor) Rail Electrification Lighter vehicles (composites nanotech materials for body and subassemblies) Aggressive energy intensity redn(5% / yr) Increase renewable share (biomass, solar) R&D for Next Practices Efficiency & conservation Best practice technologies (global benchmarking, transfer of technology) Generic processes (e.g., excess air control, flash steam recovery, VSD, automation and control) Specific processes (e.g., optimizing web moisture, cement kiln lime gasification) 15

16 Supply Summary Source Coal Oil and Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable (including bio- and large hydro) 2010 power 66% 16% 3% 6% (14.8%) % imports 28 % 80% oil, 15% gas low 0% (local) 2035 Goal 40% -50% power (0-25% import) Imports < 50% oil, <15% gas 13% high nuclear scenario- power 33% of electrical energy Focus areas Improved estimation of coal resource Technology development for Indian coals R&D in PCFBC, SOFC, IGFC, UCG, CCS Managing transition to substitutes Developing Natural Gas availability and access Reducing tailpipe emissions Benchmarking efficiency with best practice Strategic crude storage Grid development: Politico-legal management Increase reliability and safety Transfer of technology with component indigenization Fuel availability of U-238 Fuel enrichment Developing manufacturing capabilities Systems thinking Supply chain creation(pellets/ briquettes) RDD products and systems for competitive advantage employment) Creating level playing fields Detailed resource and potential mapping Performance specifications 16

17 Supply Summary Source Coal Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Efficiency (e.g., Conversion benchmarking of technologies coal mining, New resources reduction of (assess, exploit auxiliary) non conventional Demonstration gas CBM, shale (e.g., IGCC, coal gas, tight gas) gasification) New Technologies New Technologies (e.g., underground (e.g., Pulverised coal gasification, Coal bio-refinery) development and Resource diffusion of efficiency (efficient supercritical, refining, refining atmospheric capacity for low circulating cost high sulphur fluidised bed and heavy crudes, combustion) enhanced oil recovery, reduced water intensity for fracking) Nuclear Develop existing indigenous technologies (e.g, IPWR) Growth and saturation (e.g., standardized IPHWR) Establishment and multiplication (e.g., imported BWR or PWR) Thorium utilization technology R&D (e.g., FBR, AHWR) Renewable (including bio- and large hydro) Substitutions (energy vs use as feedstock,fertilisers and food) Device and machine development (efficient biomass stoves, gasifiers for process heat, co-firing, pyrolysis for liquid fuels, low cost reliable inverters, small rating wind turbines) Software and control systems ( supplydemand matching better forecasting, storage, smart grids,) Biotechnology (e.g., bio-conversion including algae, 17 microbial conversion )

18 Important technologies for India s energy sector Readily From Lab to Field Requiring basic In the imagination deployable research BLDC fans, LED Hybrid storage Nuclear fusion Personal power packs lighting Rooftop PV Smart Windows Fusion-fission hybrid Personal air travel reactor Green Buildings Micro-gasifiers and cook stoves Carbon Capture and Storage Zero energy Artificial lighting Supercritical coal DC grids Microbial fuel cells Electric vehicles Fuel cell vehicles Biorefineries ICT based smart monitoring systems Fast breeder reactors for thorium Wireless transmission Exploitation of shale gas Smart grids Advanced coal cycles Gas hydrates Tight gas Biomimetic solar Algal energy 18

19 Implementation Strategies Goal Focus areas Make in India Technology Missions Develop manufacturing Directed goal capability oriented research Globally competitive Enable Make in Employment India Prioritised areas (e.g., Supercritical coal, Solar PV, batteries and storage) Blue Sky Research Basic research with potential to generate disruptive energy technologies Biomimetic, New processes, New materials Key Stakeholders Steps involved Government, Manufacturing Industry, Energy Supply companies, Investors Identify existing capabilities, gaps Define future needs Define skills, capacity needed Research organisations, Academia, Industry, Government such as DST, SERB, TDB, TIFAC Develop industryacademia consortia Define deliverables and targets Transparent funding mechanisms Review mechanisms Co-ordinated scheme to support- SERB/DST/MNRE etc.. Mechanisms for concept funding Review and prototype/lab scale 19 Public Domain results

20 Policies and Implementation Strategies Accelerated Diffusion Green Buildings, Efficient Appliances, Hybrid Vehicles Market Transformation Mandates and incentives Enabling ecosystem- Public domain information, Improved mapping, resource assessment, monitoring, forecasting tools Level Playing Field For DSM Paradigm shift focus on energy services not energy Innovation and startups Grand Challenges Manufacturing capability development Employment SC coal, Storage Land, water Impacts Directed Research missions- stated goals,process driven allocations, public domain results Evolution of Consortia Independent Review of National R&D funding in Energy research every 10 years and mid-course corrections 20

21 Importance of Energy? Buckminsterfullerene 1. Energy 2. Water 3. Food 4. Environment 5. Poverty 6. Terrorism and war 7. Disease 8. Education 9. Democracy 10. Population

22 Advisory Group Members ETV2035 Committee Members Dr. S P Dharne - Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), Mumbai Dr. Naushad Forbes - Chairman & Managing Director, Forbes Marshall Pvt. Ltd., Pune Dr. Anuradda Ganesh VP(R&D) Cummins Dr. Gautam Goswami / Shri. Manish Kumar - Director, TIFAC Dr. Hari Shankar Jain - Executive Director, (R&D), BHEL, Hyderabad Dr. Ajit K. Kolar Professor, IIT Madras Dr. Arun Kumar / Shri. Sanjay Khazanchi - President, Dev Alternatives, Shri. Sanjay Prakash Director, SHiFt: Studio for Habitat Futures Dr. Rangan Banerjee (Chairman) - Professor, IIT Bombay Invitees / Authors Prof. Santanu Bandyopadhyay, Professor, IIT Bombay Prof. Anand B. Rao, Professor, IIT Bombay Prof. Arindam Sarkar, Professor, IIT Bombay Prof. Doolla Suryanarayana, Professor, IIT Bombay Dr. Mahesh Patankar, MP Ensystems Advisory Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai Dr. Indu Pillai, ATE Enterprises Pvt. Ltd., Pune Mr. R. R. Sahaya, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), Mumbai Mr. Jay Dhariwal / Ms. Tejal Kanitkar, Research Scholar, IIT Bombay rangan@iitb.ac.in rangan.banerjee@gmail.com Acknowledgement:Balkrishna Surve Thank you 22