Integrating renewable energy resources

Transcription

1 Integrating renewable energy resources XU Honghua Institute of Electrical Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences Sept 3,

2 Outline 1. Current Development Status of China PV and LS-PV 2.Analysis of China PV Power Price Policy 3. Future Development Perspective 2

3 Domestic PV Installation by Sectors Domestic PV Market by Sectors No. Market Sector Annu.Ins. Share Cumm. Ins. Share (MWp) (%) (MWp) (%) 1 Rural Electrification Comm..& PV Products Building PV Ground Mounted LS-PV Total Annu.Ins. market share 当年装机市场份额分布 Cumm. Ins. market share 累计装机市场份额分布 中国科学院电工研究所 3

4 China PV Power Generation Development Situation By 2012: The cumulated installation of large-scale PV power station capacity is 4.39 GW in total The Amount of large-scale PV power station grid connected electricity is 3.66 billion kwh Approval of Large-scale PV Power station capacity is GW, the new approved is 8.04 GW 4

5 Large scale Ground PV Power Station (1) 大型地面光伏电站示例 1 甘肃敦煌10MW光伏电站(规划容量20MW) 10MW PV station in Dunhuang,Gansu(Planned 20MW) 宁夏太阳山10MW光伏电站 规划容量500MW 10MW PV station in Taiyangshan,Ningxia (Planned 500MW) 云南石林光伏电站一期(规划容量166MW) The first-stage PV station in Shilin,Yunnan(Planned 166MW) 宁夏石嘴山10MW光伏电站(规划容量50MW) 10MW PV station in Shizuishan, Ningxia (Planned 50MW) 5

6 Large scale Ground PV Power Station (2) 大型地面光伏电站示例 (2) The Max Capacity of PV Power Station in China (200MW,single) Location : Golmud, Qinghai Province 中国国内目前单体容量最大光伏电站 (200MW), 青海 格尔木 6

7 What is done for LS PV systems A 50MW CPV power station is installed in Qinghai province The ground several 10MW PV stations are also installed in east China In east China, some demonstration LS PV systems are installed, such as combine with agriculture and fishery and stock raising. Constructed demonstration LS PV/wind, PV/Wind/Battery projects The 320 MWp LS PV systems combined with 1280MW hydro power will be installed this year. 中国科学院电工研究所 7

8 Problems Faced by Large-scale PV Power Station Construction The LS PV power systems and Supporting grid is not synchronously planned and constructed. Some LS PV stations can not connected to the grid in due time. In the west China, the solar resources is very good, but the local consumed capacity is limited. In some area, it happened To limit the PV power output The total subsidy for renewable energy is already not enough. Subsidies in place lag is very familiar in China, which brings a negative impacts on company investment. No clear tariff policy The regulation and rules are lack for LS PV station. Many manufacturing companies of PV industry chain are involved in developing LS PV projects. PV modules of some LS PV station are not so good. The competition is too serious for EPC, panels and BOS. It is difficult to get financing from banks for industry. 8

9 China PV Power Price Policies Analysis 中国光伏发电电价政策分析 中国科学院电工研究所 9

10 Government Sponsored PV Projects 政府支持的光伏项目执行情况 Large Scale PV Phases Approved Capacity Feed-in Tariff 2011 FIT 2000MW FIT = 1.15 Yuan/kWh 2012 FIT 2000MW FIT = 1.0 Yuan/kWh Total( ) 4300MW 800MW waiting for grid connection Financial Source Renewable Energy Surcharge PV Building Project Phases Approved Capacity Subsidy to Capital(Yuan/W) 3rd phase, projects,120mw BIPV 12 Yuan /W 4th phase, MW BIPV 9 Yuan /W, BAPV 7.5 Yuan /W Total( ) 500MW Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy Gonden Sun Demonstration Phases Approved Capacity Subsidy to Capital(Yuan/W) 3rd Phase projects,690mw C-Si 9.0 Yuan /W, a-si 8.5 Yuan /W 4th Phase projects, 1709MW PV Building 5.5 Yuan /W, off-grid >7.0 Yuan /W Total( ) 2870MW Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy Additional PV Building Project and Golden-Sun Demonstration Nov MW BIPV 7 Yuan /W, BAPV 5.5 Yuan /W Financial Source Special Fund for Renewable Energy Total Installed and Approved PV by the end of 2012 is 10500MW 10

11 PV pricing principle 光伏发电定价机制 Set regional FITs according to different resources conditions 根据资源条件制定光伏电站分区域标杆上网电价 Low down FIT and subsidy standards reasonably according to costs change 根据成本变化合理消减上网电价和补贴标准 PV Price 光伏固定电价 Resources + Construction conditions 资源条件 + 建设条件 RE Price 可再生能源发电定价 operation period price 经营期电价 Costs + reasonable profits 成本 + 合理利润 Electricity price 电力定价机制 Government price, unified policy 政府定价, 统一政策 11

12 Potential of solar resources 太阳能资源和装机潜力 China renewable energy resources 中国的可再生能源资源 Resources 种类 Available amount 我国资源可开发量 Standard coal equivalent (100 million tce) 折合标准煤 Solar 太阳能 100 billion kw 450 Wind 风能 1 billion kw 8 Hydro 水能 400 million kw (Economic available ) 540 million kw (Technical available ) 4.8~6.4 Biomass 生物质能 Electricity 生物质发电 Liquid fuel 液体燃料 Biomass 沼气 3 亿吨秸秆 + 3 亿吨林业废弃物 = million ton billion m Resource:RE Mid and Long term Development Plan, NDRC, Aug Total 总计 4.6 Class 等级 Annual total amount of radiation 年总辐射量 (MJ/ m 2 ) Annual total amount of radiation 年总辐射量 (kwh/ m 2 ) Average daily radiation 平均日辐射量 (kwh/m 2 ) Very rich 最丰富带 I Rich 很丰富带 II Relative rich 较丰富带 III Common 一般 IV < 3780 < 1050 < 2.9 中国科学院电工研究所 12

13 Desert in China and Potential for PV 中国的荒漠资源和可容纳光伏装机 12% of China land area is desert, gobi and beach which could not for agriculture. Total amount is up to 1.28 million km 2, among which of 570 thousand km 2 gobi area. The desert areas are mainly distributed in the north western of China which are rich in solar radiation ( 1600kWh m 2 ) 中国 12% 的国土面积为不能用于耕作的沙漠 戈壁和滩涂, 总面积为 128 万 km 2, 其中戈壁面积 57 万平方公里 中国的荒漠资源主要分布在光照资源丰富的西北地区, 其年总辐射在 1600kWh m 2 以上 1km 2 could allocated 50MW PV. It is assumed that by 2050, accumulated PV in China will up to 1000GW, 50% are installed in desert, that is 10000km 2, 2% of total gobi area; even more positive goal for 3000 GW, that will need 30000km 2, 5.3% of total gobi area. 1 平方公里可以安装 50MW 光伏电站, 假定 2050 年中国光伏总装机将达到 1000GW(10 亿 kw),50% 安装在荒漠, 则仅需要 1 万平方公里, 还不到这个总戈壁面积的 2%; 按照高限 3000GW(30 亿 kw) 的 50%, 也仅需要 3 万平方公里, 仅占中国戈壁总面积的 5.3% Even desert is not suitable for PV installation, only gobi resources is enough to satisfy PV installation demand. 沙漠里其实无法安装光伏电站, 仅考虑戈壁就已经足够 中国科学院电工研究所 13

14 Distribution of desert in China 中国的荒漠资源 Province 省份 Total area 总面积 Desert 沙漠 Gobi 戈壁 Xinjiang 新疆 Gansu 甘肃 Qinghai 青海 Inner Mongolia 内蒙古 Ningxia 宁夏 Jilin 吉林 Liaoning 辽宁 Shannxi 陕西 Heilongjiang 黑龙江 Total 总计 Resource: Mid and Long-term China Energy Development Strategy Research, 2010, Chinese Academy of Engineering 资料来源 : 中国工程院. 中国能源中长期 ( ) 发展战略研究 2010 中国科学院电工研究所 14

15 New Policy is coming, bring PV bright prospect 新政即将出台, 光伏前景看好 Promote industry integration with market mechanism; 利用市场机制, 促进产业整合 ; Synchronize the construction of PV and grid, guarantee full purchase; 光伏建设规划与电网同步, 保证全额收购 ; Expand domestic PV market; 启动国内光伏市场 ; Set regional PV power price according to local resources 按照资源条件, 制定分区光伏电价 ; Change subsidization mode from initial investment subsidy to power output subsidy, with purpose to guarantee PV system performance; 采用上网电价和发电量补贴, 确保建设质量 ; Reduce governmental intervention, prohibit local protection; 减少政府干预, 禁止地方保护 ; Unify RE surcharge and RE fund management to single department, subsidy payment will not be delayed; RE 电力附加和专项基金统一管理, 保证补贴到位 ; PV power integrated to grid will not be a problem anymore; 电网对光伏全面开放, 并网难的问题不复存在 中国科学院电工研究所 15

16 Last week, NDRC Released the new policy: RE surcharge : increase to 1.5cent/kWh (from 0.8cent/kWh) PV FIT for Utility scale and Distributed PV system : For Utility Scale: 3 class of FITs are clarified referring to different region resources and construction conditions. The FITs : 0.9, 0.95 and1.0 Yuan/kWh The higher part to local coal-fired benchmark price will be subsidized by RE fund. For Distributed PV: Subsidy is 0.42Yuan/kWh based on the consumer electricity price. 中国科学院电工研究所 16

17 Solar Power Target and Annual Progress Forecast Year Annual Inst.(GW) Cumul. Inst. (GW) PV Ins.(GW) Annual Ins. (GW) Cumulative (GW) Year 17

18 China 2050 RE Long-term Strategy Research 中国 2050 可再生能源长期发展战略研究 and 2050 China total energy consumption will reach 4.6, 5.5 and 5.8 billion tce; 和 2050 中国一次能源需求为 46 亿吨 55 亿吨和 58 亿吨标准煤 ; and 2050 China total electricity demand will reach 7300, 9800 and billion kwh; 和 2050 我国电力需求将达到 亿 亿和 亿千瓦时左右 2012 baseline: ratio-renewables to primary energy consumption reach 10.31%, generation ratio of renewable reach 20%; 2012 基线 : 可再生能源占一次能源消费 10.31%, 可再生能源电量满足电力需求 20% 2050 target : ratio-renewables to primary energy consumption reach 45-50%, generation ratio of renewable reach 60% 目标 : 可再生能源占一次能源消费 45-50%, 可再生能源电量满足电力需求的 60% Resource:China National RE Center, Mar,2013 China RE Target to 2050 资料来源 : 面向 2050 的可再生能源战略 ( 讨论稿 ) 中国科学院电工研究所 18

19 Mid-long term planning & roadmap research 中长期发展规划和路线图研究 Basic goal: the cumulated installation capacity will reach to 100 GW, 300GW and 1000GW by 2020, 2030 and 2050, the PV power output will account for 0.2%, 4.2% and 10.8% of total China electricity demand by then. Among which, LS-PV installed capacity will reach to 40GW, 150GW and 500GW; 基本目标 : 2020,2030 和 2050 年的累积装机分别达到 100GW,300GW 和 1000GW, 光伏发电量将占到届时中国电力总需求的 0.2%, 4.2% 和 10.8%, 其中大型地面光伏电站装机将达 40GW,150GW 和 500GW; Positive goal: the cumulated installation capacity will reach to 200GW, 1000GW and 3000GW by 2020, 2030 and 2050, the PV power output will account for 0.4%, 13.9% and 32.2% of total China electricity demand by then. Among which, LS-PV installed capacity will reach to 80GW, 500GW and 2000GW; 积极目标 : 2020,2030 和 2050 年的累积装机分别达到 200GW,1000GW 和 3000GW, 光伏发电量将占到届时中国电力总需求的 0.4%,13.9% 和 32.2%, 其中大型地面光伏电站装机将达 80GW,500GW 和 2000GW 2020,2030,2050 Solar Energy Development Roadmap Research China 2050 Scaling-up Renewable Energy Scenario Research 19

20 Xu Honghua 中国科学院电工研究所 20