The Climate Threat & Conservation

Transcription

1 The Climate Threat & Conservation Facing Certainty & Uncertainty T. Kittel Brazil Global Seminar 2012 University of Colorado Study Abroad 2012, T. Kittel, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder

2 Objective Incorporating Climate Change into Conservation Plans Handle Uncertainty Rapid, Easy to Implement Climate Adaptation Strategies Climate Vulnerability Standard Conservation Practice No-regrets Marine cloud deck, N. Tropical Pacific

3 The Source Anthropogenic Forcing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Dioxide

4 The Source Anthropogenic Forcing Landcover Change Changes in Energetics & Hydrology of the terrestrial surface Changes in ecosystem Biogeochemistry & emissions Effects on climate Regional to Global Roads & fires - Amazon

5 The Source Anthropogenic Forcing Aerosols sulfate, dust, soot, sea salt, Haze / Cloud Condensation Nuclei Changes in radiative properties of the atmosphere Aircraft tracks, Bay of Biscay, E Atlantic

6 Manifestation of Change Climate We are entering a period of consequences Winston Churchill Global Surface Air Temperatures

7 Manifestation of Change Biosphere Phenology Changes in spring timing of a temperature-related trait earlier later 61 studies of 694 species or groups of species - Root et al Nature

8 The Future Projected Climate Precipitation: Northern Winter % Change relative to Surface Air Temperature: Annual Change ( C) relative to

9 Biogeographical model for 2xCO2 climate The Future Projected Biogeography Biome & Species Shifts: Latitudinal & Elevational Western Red Cedar South Central Canada Hamann & Wang 2006 Climate envelope model for 2085 Tundra

10 The Future How Certain?????? 2080? Tundra All models are wrong, but some are useful - GEP Box, 1987

11 The Uncertainties The Underlying Problem Socioeconomic, Climate, & Ecological Systems Land Surface Cryosphere Biosphere Bottomline Complex Systems Difficult to gather key data Difficult to predict behavior

12 Uncertainty Sources Socio-economic Pathway Emissions Uncertainty? Which world? Clean, efficient technologies. Global sustainability solutions. Pop peaks mid-century. Rapid growth, tech advances. Pop peaks mid-century Fossil & efficient energy use. Increasing population Technology change slow, regionally fragmented

13 Uncertainty Sources Climate Model Limitations For a given emission scenario C A2 A2 A2? Different models outcomes Bottomline Same Conceptual Basis, Different Results

14 Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections System Complexity Forcing Uncertainty Model Limitations

15 Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections Model validation: To get a handle on uncertainty Historical T record Simulated Average of Models Not multivariate Historical period Convergence validation

16 Uncertainty Sources Ecosystem Model Limitations For a given climate projection WET DRY Palmer Drought Severity Index Total Ecosystem Carbon Same Ecology, Different Results with time

17 Same Ecology, Different Results regional Uncertainty Sources Ecosystem Model Limitations LPJ HADCM2SUL MC1 CGCM1 Change in Total Ecosystem Carbon

18 Uncertainty in Ecological Model Projections System Complexity Forcing Uncertainty Model Limitations Physiology-Climate relationships Persistence & Dispersal Non-climate controls Landscape Linkages Genetic diversity Evolutionary rates Synergism with other stressors Walter 1985 Empirical vs. Dynamical Models Species vs. Ecosystem Models

19 Ecological Complexity Species Level (Kittel 2012)

20 The Certainties Climate What do we know for sure? lessons from the climate models Very character of regional climates will likely change over next decades Multivariate Multiple Timescales Trends not monotonic Shifts, Thresholds Novel climates

21 Certainties The Biosphere lessons from the ecological models Climate changes: a magnitude & character critical for populations, communities, & landscapes Phenologies/life cycles Species interactions foodwebs, pollination Geography ecosystems, species, genetics Extirpation, extinction rates Ecosystem Resilience Strong synergisms with other stressors Non-monotonic, non-equilibrium Novel ecosystems Red-footed Booby,Mangrove Galápagos Is. the loser now. Will be later to win Bob Dylan (The Times They Are A-Changin )

22 Rufous Hummingbird The Forgotten Pollinators Long-distance migratory pollinators Threatened habitat loss Keystone species Lesser Long-nosed Bat Nectar corridors Sequence of flowering plants Monarch Butterfly White-winged Dove Arizona-Sonoran Desert Museum

23 The Lessons Magnitude of uncertainties magnitude of system sensitivity Magnitude of what s certain will change everything Inherently difficult at the same time critical for conservation action

24 Get over it The Uncertainty Coping Change perspective on it: Recognize it Be smart about it Ecosystem Futures Financial Market Dynamics If we build our strategy around the [recognition] that we re pretty darn ignorant, we probably won t have to wait very long for confirmation - John Clements, Wall Street Journal

25 Acting Under Uncertainty Financial Analog Conserve smart Implement strategies that recognize & handle uncertainty FIVE KEY TENETS 1. Monitor temporal dynamics & trends Develop intuition Research & Monitoring 2. Diversify holdings Reduce risk in any one preserve Site Selection & Prioritization

26 Acting Under Uncertainty Financial Analog 3. Balance goals Multiple-Goal Portfolio Reduce Species & Ecosystem Vulnerability 4. Save aggressively to counter downside risk of uncertainty How much is enough? Target Redundancy 5. Rebalance portfolio Reassess strategy Adaptive Management

27 Steps to Action Adaptive Strategies Reduce Vulnerabilities No Regrets & Scenario-independent Practices Example strategies Reduce vulnerability to other threats Habitat loss, Invasive species, Pollution Protect processes Watersheds, Food webs, Life cycles Landscape restoration Value of degraded sites Create networks of reserves & Reduce barriers: Porous landscapes

28 Enhancing Adaptive Capacity Central Interior British Columbia Regional Conservation Plan Standard Solution Climate Solution

29 Terrestrial Summed Solution a b Standard Summed Solution c Climate Summed Solution d Increased Size Connectivity Buffers Plant Element Occurrences Protected Areas (Kittel et al. 2011)

30 The Lessons The magnitude of uncertainties magnitude of system sensitivity The magnitude of what s certain will change everything Conservation Action Strategies to Deal with Uncertainty Focus on Enhancing Adaptive Capacity Rhinoceros Hornbill eating Strangler Fig fruits, Borneo

31 Conservation Climate Change Strategy and British Columbia Plan Kittel et al A vulnerability-based strategy for incorporating climate change in regional conservation planning: Framework and case study for the British Columbia Central Interior. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management. 12(1):7-35