Quantifying Transit s Impact on Climate Change

Transcription

1 Quantifying Transit s Impact on Climate Change Gary Prince King County Metro APTA Climate Change Standards Working Group QUALITY TRANSIT -- NOW

2 Why measure emissions from public transportation? Communicating the benefits of transit Ensuring eligibility for new funding sources Reporting to carbon accounting and trading organizations Fulfilling APTA Commitment reporting Setting emissions targets in local/regional climate action plans Supporting internal efforts to reduce emissions

3 Transit s GHG Paradox Regional Transportation GHG Emissions Mass Transit Mass Transit Other Transportation Other Transportation Less Transit More Transit Source: T. Papandreou, LA Metro

4 Transportation Emissions by Mode

5 APTA Transit GHG Protocol Emissions Produced by Transit Emissions from Transit Tailpipe emissions from transit vehicles Electricity use for traction Maintenance yards, stations, offices and other stationary sources Emissions Displaced by Transit Mode Shift to Transit Avoided car trips from private autos Congestion Relief Improved fuel efficiency from reduced congestion Land-Use Multiplier Compact land-use -> shorter trips, more walk/bike trips Trip chaining Lower car ownership Debit Credit Greenhouse Gas Impact of Transit

6 Document Structure

7 Calculating Transit Emissions The Climate Registry Protocol (Scopes 1,2 and 3) Measured in CO 2 -e Operations Revenue vehicles Non-revenue vehicles Purchased electricity Stationary Combustion Capital In-house construction Data NTD Agency

8 Organizational Boundaries

9 Organizational Boundaries, continued

10 Facility-level Disaggregation

11 Tiered data approach

12 Emissions Displacement Categories Mode Shift to Transit Congestion Relief Benefits Land-Use Multiplier

13 Mode Shift What emissions would have occurred if transit were not available? Modeled outcome for larger agencies; survey-based data for others Passenger miles used as metric for displaced miles

14 Congestion Benefits Developed model to estimate wasted fuel from congestion and measure benefits from transit Extrapolates from TTI data based on correlation of regional traffic density and congestion

15 Fuel Consumed in Congestion (thousand gallons) Congestion Benefits 250, , , ,000 50,000 R 2 = ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Traffic Density (VMT/Lane-Mile) If the relationship holds, transit s effect on congestion can be extrapolated Estimate increase in traffic density without transit Then calculate excess fuel consumption in congestion, convert to GHG emissions

16 Land Use Multiplier PORTLAND STREETCAR Transit enables compact development patterns resulting in: reduced trip length reduced frequency Calculation Options Regional Model Default ICF Multiplier CONNECTING PORTLAND S NEIGHBORHOODS

17 Land Use Factor estimates the benefits that transit creates by allowing more dense development APTA guidance includes three approaches for estimating the land use impacts on GHG emissions: Regional Transportation Models & Studies Regional GIS Studies Average Land Use Impact Multiplier

18 Land Use analysis using regional models and survey data VMT reduction from land use VMT saved from driving less because of dense development VMT saved by non-motorized trips VMT saved by transit riders because of dense development The land use multiplier is: GHG emissions reduction from land use effects GHG emissions effects from mode choice

19 What is the impact of MTA on GHG emissions? MTA to Average City MTA Generates 2.3 M tons/yr Land Use 4.85 Mode Shift 2.31 Total Displacement Factor 8 Without MTA, the Region Would Generate 18 M tons/yr Congestion Relief 0.73

20 Final Calculations Displacement from: Emissions Produced Mode Shift Congestion Relief Land Use Net Carbon Impact

21 CCWG Participating Members BART COTA (Central Ohio) Champaign-Urbana MTD Chicago Transit Authority NYMTA SFMTA LACMTA King County Metro New Jersey Transit SEPTA RTA (Chicago) TriMet UTA Veolia Transportation AECOM Booz Allen PB FTA Transport Canada Florida State University Stanford University

22 APTA CCWG Progress to Date Agencies testing protocol methodologies Mode shift benefits recognized by major climate registries not yet incorporated into methodologies. Land use benefits recognized as long term, substantial, and key element of planning process. SB 375 requires assessment of land use and climate impacts; considered in federal bills. APTA/AMPO partnership making linkages.

23 APTA CCWG Next Steps Release methodology (v1.0) in August Develop calculator tool to support Signatories and other members (Fall 09) Guidance on Climate Action Plans (FY10) Continue seeking recognition of methodology in legislation/registries