Brazilian Strategic Energy Planning

Transcription

1 Brazilian Strategic Energy Planning Rio de Janeiro March 3rd 2019 Thiago Barral CEO

2 About EPE Energy Research Office State-owned company linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy We develop studies and data/statistics to support formulation, implementation and evaluation of energy policies Member of the Board of the National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE)

3 About EPE Energy Research Office Guidelines stated by the Ministry of Mines and Energy Role of EPE Nível 1 de excelência Governance Predictability Legal and Regulatory Stability Technical branch of MME, providing flexible and timely studies and reports Provides unbiased technical, economical and environmental evidence to support decision making and public involvement Contributes to the coherence, transparency and credibility of the actions of the MME Reduces assymetry of information in the market

4 Overview

5 National Energy Balance Fonte: EPE, Balanço Energético Nacional 2018 Source: EPE

6 Balanço Energético Nacional ASSUMPTIONS Source: EPE

7 High share of renewables in the power system 80,2% of electricity supply in 2017 was from renewable resources Fonte: EPE, Balanço Energético Nacional 2018

8 Highlights Next 10 years

9 Projected Load Growth MW average MW ,6% average per year ( ) (+ 3,9% Alternative Scenario) N NE S SE Demanda Máxima Estimated additions ~ MW per year Source: EPE

10 The challenge of expanding... A system in transformation 55 mil km +40% Hydro Thermal Other Renewables Wind Nuclear Solar UTE CA + Tec. Armazen. DG Expansão (2027) Source: EPE

11 Integration of hydro, solar, wind and bioelectricity 141,000 km

12 The challenge of expanding... A system in transformation Small hydro Wind PV Source: EPE, data CCEE

13 The challenge of expanding... A system in transformation Source: EPE Multipart tariff Micro/Mini Distributed Generation Demand response, etc... Present at the agenda Planning, Policy and Regulation

14 Energy Efficiency leads to economic gains... Total Energy Saved In 2027, energy efficiency representes 8% of total energy consumption in Brazil in 2017 Em 2027, energy saved (41 TWh) corresponds to half the anual power generation of Itaipu HPP (12 GW) Source: EPE

15 The challenge of expanding... A system in transformation Hydros Lose share, but their role is changing Hydro Renewables Renewables Increase share for their economic merit, in a system approach Thermal Peak Natural Gas Is well positioned to supply increasing electricity demand Source: EPE

16 The country needs huge investments... Source: EPE R$ 226 billion Utility Scale Capacity R$ 108 billion Transmission Grid R$ 60 billion Distributed Generation Modernization of the legal, regulatory and comercial framework to tackle this transformation of the system Correct economic signals investment decisions and efficient use of resources Adequate allocation of risks, with the instruments to manage them

17 Perspectives for 2050

18 Perspectives Angra 3 New NPP 2050 Plan is developed with a scenario-based approach PLANO NACIONAL DE ENERGIA 2050 Aims to explore how major energy policy decisions affect the outcomes

19 Technological trends Nuclear reactors Generation III and III+ are potential candidates for expanding nuclear power generation in the electricity mix (i) passive safety characteristics, significant design simplification, compliance with regulatory standards and lower installation and O & M costs; (ii) trend (standardization) of the industry in the use of this type of reactor and (iii) modularity and simplification of design. After 2030, Small and Medium Reactors (SMRs) of Generation III+ and Generation IV can be alternatives Their reduced size and complexity can result in reduced capital cost and shorter construction time.

20 2050 Studies Information for strategic policy making What would be the impact of having several additional NPP until 2050? Available resources/fuel... Available technologies... Costs... System Operation... Transmission grids... Other resources... GHG emissions... Location... Cost and other assumptions, resources, energy demand Already released, available at PNE 2050 Final Release, after public consultation: Dez/2019

21 Thank you! Facebook: EPE.Brasil Avenida Rio Branco, 1-11 o andar Centro - Rio de Janeiro