6- p. 0 qomo-07. t, c rogress Energy. April 1,2009 VIA HAND DELIVERY

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1 6- p t, rogress Energy April 1,29 VIA HAND DELIVERY Ms. Ann Cole, Commission Clerk Florida Publi Serve Commission 254 Sumard Oak Boulevard Tallaassee, Florida qomo-7 Re: Ten-Year Site Plan as ofdeember 31, 28 Dear Ms. Cole: Pursuant to Rule , F.A.C., please find enlosed for filing te original and twenty-five (25) opies of Progress Energy Florida, In. s 29 Ten-Year Site Plan. Please aknowledge your reeipi: of te above filing on te enlosed opy of tis letter and return to te undersigned. Tbmk you for your assistane in tis matter. Sinerely, J% T. Burnett JTB:lms Enlosure Progress Energy Servie Company. LLC 16 E. College Avenue, Suite 8 Higpoint Center Tallaassee. FL 3231

2 Progress Enlergy Florida, In. Ten-Year Site Plan April Su IDm itted to: Florida Publi Servie Commission

3 r\ n. TABLE OF CONTENTS m P r- List of Required Sedules..... List of Tables and Figures..... Code Identifiation Seet..... Introdution.... CHAPTER 1 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING FACIILITIES Existing Failities Overview..... Servie Area Map (Figure 1.1).... Existing Generating Failities (Sedule 1).... Page iv V CHAPTER 2 FORECAST OF ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION Overview Energy Consumption and Demand Foreast Sedules History and Foreast of Energy Consumption and Number of Customers by Customer Class (S ) History and Foreast of Base Summer Peak Demand i(mw) (S. 3.1) History and Foreast of Base Winter Peak Demand (MW) (S. 3.2) History and Foreast of Base Annual Net Energy for :Load (GW) (S. 3.3) Previous Year Atual and Two-Year Foreast of Peak. Demand and Net Energy for Load by Mont (S. 4) Fuel Requirements and Energy Soures Fuel Requirements (S. 5) Energy Soures (GW) (S. 6.1) Energy Soures (Perent) (S. 6.2) Foreasting Metods and Proedures Introdution Foreast Assumptions Customer, Energy, and Demand Foreast (Figure 2.1 )I General Assumptions Sort-Term Eonomi Assumptions Long-Term Eonomi Assumptions Foreast Metodology Energy and Customer Foreast Peak Demand Foreast Progress Energy Florida, In. i

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Conservation Residential Programs CommeriaVIndustrial (C/I) Programs Resear and Development Programs....., CHAPTER 3 FORECAST OF FACILITIES REQUIREMENTS Resoure Planning Foreast..... Overview of Current Foreast..... Total Capaity Resoures Of Power Plants and Purased Power Contrats (Table 3.1).... Qualifying Faility Generation Contrats (Table 3.2).... Foreast of Capaity, Demand and Seduled Maintenane at Time of Summer Peak (S. 7.1).... Foreast of Capaity, Demand and Seduled Maintenane at Time of Winter Peak (S. 7.2).... Planned and Prospetive Generating Faility Additions and Canges (S. 8).... Status Report and Speifiations of Proposed Generating Failities (S. 9).... Status Report and Speifiations of Proposed Diretly Assoiated Transmission Lines (S. 1).... Integrated Resoure Planning Overview..... Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) Proess Overview (Figure 3.1).... Te Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) Proess..... Key Corporate Foreasts..... Ten-year Site Plan (TYSP) Resoure Additions..... Renewable Energy..... Plan Considerations.... Transmission Planning.... List of Proposed Bulk Transmission Line Additions ( Table 3.3) CHAPTER 4 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND USE: INFORMATION Preferred Sites..... P.L. Bartow Plant - Pinellas County..... P.L. Hartow Plant (Pinellas County) (Figure 4.1).... Suwannee River Plant - Suwannee County..... Suwannee River Plant (Suwannee County) (Figure 4.2).... Levy County Nulear Power Plant - Levy County..... Levy County Nulear Power Plant (Levy County) (Figure 4.3) Progress Energy Florida, In. 11

5 LIST OF REOUIEED SCHEDULES Existing Generating Failities History and Foreast of Energy Consumption anti Number of Customers by Customer Class (Rural and Residential and Commerial) History and Foreast of Energy Consumption and Number of Customers by Customer Class (Industrial and Oter) History and Foreast of Energy Consumption and Number of Customers by Customer Class (Net Energy for Load) History and Foreast of Summer Peak Demand (MW) - Base Case History and Foreast of Winter Peak Demand (MLW) - Base Case History and Foreast of Annual Net Energy for L,oad (GW) - Base Case Previous Year Atual and Two-Year Foreast of Peak Demand and Net Energy for Load by Mont Fuel Requirements Energy Soures (GW) Energy Soures (Perent) Foreast of Capaity, Demand, and Seduled M-aintenane at Time of Summer Peak..... Foreast of Capaity, Demand, and Seduled Maintenane at Time of Winter Peak..... Planned and Prospetive Generating Faility Additions and Canges..... Status Report and Speifiations of Proposed Generating Failities Status Report and Speifiations of Proposed Diretly Assoiated Transmission Lines Progress Energy Florida, In

6 Tables LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Page 3.1 Total Capaity Resoures of Power Plants and I?urased Power Contrats Qualifying Faility Generation Contrats List of Proposed Bulk Transmission Line Additions Fipures 1.1 Servie Area Map Customer, Energy, and Demand Foreast Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) Proess Ovarview a. P.L. Bartow Plant (Pinellas County) b. P.L. Bartow Plant (Pinellas County) - Plant La:yout a Suwannee River Plant (Suwannee County) b Suwannee River Plant (Suwannee County) - Plant Layout a Levy County Nulear Power Plant (Levy County) b Levy County Nulear Power Plant (Levy County) - Aerial View Page Progress Energy Florida, In. iv

7 A CODE IDENTIFICATION SHEET r- e, Generating Unit Tvpe ST - Steam Turbine - Non-Nulear NP - Steam Power - Nulear GT - Gas Turbine CT - Combustion Turbine CC - Combined yle SPP - Small Power Produer COG - Cogeneration Faility Fuel Tvpe NUC - Nulear (Uranium) NG - Natural Gas RFO - No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil DFO - No. 2 Distillate Fuel Oil BIT - Bituminous Coal MSW - Muniipal Solid Waste WH - Waste Heat BIO - Biomass Fuel Transportation WA - Water TK - Truk RR - Railroad PL - Pipeline UN - unknown Future Generating Unit Status A - Generating unit apability inreased D - Generating unit apability dereased FC - Existing generator planned for onversion to anoter fuel or energy soure P - Planned for installation but not autorized; not under onstrution RP - Proposed for repowering or life extension RT - Existing generator seduled for retirement T - Regulatory approval reeived but not under onstrution U - Under onstrution, less tan or equal to 5% omplete V - Under onstrution, more tan 5% omplete Progress Energy Florida, In. V

8 F.n,P 7 INTIRODUCTION Setion of te Florida Statutes requires eletri generating utilities to submit a Ten-Year Site Plan (TYSP) to te Florida Publi Servie Commission (FPSC). Te TYSP inludes istorial and projeted data pertaining to te utility s load and resoure needs as well as a review of tose needs. Florida Power Corporation d/b/a Progress Energy Florida, In. TYSP is ompiled in aordane wit FPSC Rule!; troug 22.72, Florida Administrative Code. Progress Energy Florida, In. s (PEF) TYSP is based on te projetions of long-term planning requirements tat are dynami in nature and subjet to ange. Tese planning douments sould be used for general guidane onerning PEF s planning assumptions and projetions, and sould not be taken as an assurane: tat partiular events disussed in te TYSP will materialize or tat partiular plans will be implemented. Information and projetions pertinent to periods furter out in time are inerently subjet to greater unertainty. Tis TYSP doument ontains four (4) apters as indiated below: Tis apter provides an overview of PEF s generating resoures as well as te transmission and distribution system. CHAPTER 1 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING FACILITIES CHAPTER 2 FORECAST OF EILECTRICAL POWER DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION Capter 2 presents te istory and foreast for load and peak demand as well as te foreast-a metodology used. DSM savings and fuel requirement projetions are also inluded L X : CL : < : CHAPTER 3 FORECAST OF FACILITIES REOUIREMENTS L-> 1L L-? r z: - rn (, I Te resoure planning foreast, transmission planning foreast as well as te proposed? - * - Y a, 71 generating failities and bulk transmission line additions status are disussed in Capter 3. dr 13 L 1 r N ;J CHAPTER 4 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND USE INFORMATION Preferred and potential site loations along wit any environmental and land use information are presented in tis apter. * L:J CL LA. Progress Energy Florida, In. 1

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10 - CHAPTER 1 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING FACILITIES e EXISTING FACILITIES OVERVIEW OWNERSHIP Florida Power Corporation d/b/a Progress ergy Florida, In. (PEF or te Company) is a wolly owned subsidiary of Progress Energy, In. (Progress Energy). Congress enated legislation in 25 repealing te Publi Utilities Holding Company At of 1935 (PUHCA) effetive February 8, 26. Subsequent to tat date, Progress Energy is no longer subjet to regulation by te Seurities and Exange Commission as a publi utility olding ompany. fi AREA OF SERVICE PEF as an obligation to serve approximately 1.6 million ustomers in Florida. Its servie area overs approximately 2, square miles in west entral Florida and inludes te densely populated areas around Orlando, as well as te ities of Saint Petersburg and Cleanvater. PEF is interonneted wit twenty-two (22) muniipal and nine (9) rural eletri ooperative systems. PEF is subjet to te rules and regulations of te Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), te Nulear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and te FPSC. PEF s Servie Area is sown in Figure 1.1. TRANSMISSION/DISTFUBUTION Te Company is part of a nationwide interonneted power network tat enables power to be exanged between utilities. Te PEF trammission system inludes approximately 5, iruit miles of transmission lines. Te distribution system inludes approximately 18, iruit miles of overead distribution ondutors and approximately 13, iruit miles of underground distribution able. ENERGY MANAGEMENT and ENERGY EFFICIENCY PEF ustomers partiipating in te ompany s residential Energy Management program elp to manage future growt and osts. Approximately 391,5 ustomers partiipated in te Energy Progress Energy Florida, In. 1-1

11 Management program at te end of 28, ontributing about 769,9 kw of winter peak-saving apaity for use during ig load periods. PEF s DSM Plan urrently onsists of seven (7) residential programs, eigt (8) ommerial and industrial programs, and one (1) resear and development program. PEF will be proposing new DSM goals on June 1, 29, for te period Te goals will inlude ten-year projetions of te total ost-effetive, winter and summer peak demand (kw) and annual energy (kw) savings for ommerialndustrial and residential ustomer segments. Wen approved, PEF will be expeted to submit a plan designed to meet te approved goals for te ten-year period. TOTAL CAPACITY RESOURCE As of Deember 31, 28, PEF ad total summer apaity resoures of approximately 11,197 MW onsisting of installed apaity of 9,289 MW (exluding Crystal River Unit 3 joint ownersip) and 1,98 MW of firm purased power. Additional information on PEF s existing generating resoures an be found in Sedule 1 and Table 3.1. Progress Energy Florida, In. 1-2

12 .n.n,n CI C FIGURE 1.1 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA Servie Area Map.C - n + n n P - n * * - Progress Energy Florida, In. 1-3

13 .n,a,n..n I C - P.n,A n * PASCO PASCO PINELLAS PINELLAS PINELLAS CITgllS rraus CITRUS m m CITRUS SUWANNEE SUWANNEE mannee m Rpo Rpo m Rw BIT BIT NUC BIT BIT RPO RPO m NG NG NG NG NG NG PL PL WA WA WA BR BR TK WA WA TKiRB TKAR TwRB PL PL PL WA WA BR BR PL PL PL 1w74 1W78 9/58 8/61 7/ /69 3/77 12/ /53 11/ ***..*.*.*. 556,2 556,2 127,5 127, ,55 523,8 89, , ,5 75. ME so L 4 w ME n 4.7M 4 n.p m n - - AVON PARK AVON PARK BARTOW BARTOW BARTOW BAYBORO DEBARY DEBARY P1 P2 P1,P3 P2 P4 Pl-P4 Pl-P6 P7-P9 DEBARY P1 mam Pl-PZ HlGGINs BITEKEWON CllY P3-P4 Pl-P6 -ON CllY P7-P1 NIZWXSON CITY lkiegegsion CITY RIO PrNAR P1 SUwANNEEmm SuWANNEEmzR TURNER TURNER TURNER UNIT' OF- P2 PP2 P3 P4 P1 H HIGmANDs PEELLAS PINELLAS PINELLAS PINELLAS VOLUSIA VOLUSIA VOLUSIA PINELLAS PINELLAS 6EOI.A OsCEoLA P11 ** OsEOLA P12-Pl4 -LA OWGE Pl,P3 SUWANNEE mawee VOLUSIA VoLm VOLUSIA ALACHUA POLK CC NG DFO PL POLK CC NG DFO PL POLK CC NG DFO PL POLK CC NG DFO PL POLK CC NG PL CT CT? CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT NG DFO DFO NG NG DFO DFO NG DFO NG NG DFO NG DFO NG DFO NG DFO DFO DFO DFO NG TK TK TK TK DFO PL DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO DFO TK WA PL PL WA TK PL TK PL PL PL,= PL PL,TK PL TK WA WA TK TK w PL,TK DFO PL TK TK TK TK PL TK g. 2.* 4/99 12/3 11/5 12/7 8/97 TK 3*** 12/68 12/68 5/72,6/72 6/72 6/72 4/73 12/ m2 1/ /7,1/71 5/74 1/93 1/97 lzloo 11/7 1W8, 11/8 118 lofl an4 8n4 1/94.***..**.* *. *.* I*.*. I*** ,25 561, 61, 278,1 33,79 33,19 111,4 55,7 55,7 226,8 41,22 345, 115, ,85 34,2 46, 165, 34s ,4 61,2 38,58 71,2 71,2 43, ax 2, lw74 e.- n e n Progress Energy Florida, In. 1-4

14 CHAPTER 2 FORECAST F ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND AND ENER G Y CONSUMPTION ~3 C i Progress Energy

15 - CHAPTER 2 FORECAST OF ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND AND ENERGE CONSUMPTION OVERVIEW Te information presented in te following Sedules 2, 3 and 4 represents PEF s istory and foreast of ustomers, energy sales (GW), and peak demand (MW). Assumptions were made to predit a foreast wit a 5/5 probability, or te most likely senario. PEF s ustomer growt is expeted to average 1.5 perent between 29 and 218, wi is less tan te ten-year istorial average of 2. perent. Slower population growt, based on te latest projetion from te University of Florida s Bureau of Eonomi and Business Resear (BEBR), and eonomi onditions less favorable for te ousing/onstrution industry, inluding, for example, tigter mortgage redit availability and iger property taxes and insurane rates, results in a lower ustomer projetion wen ompared to te iger istorial growt rate. Tis translates into lower projeted energy and demand growt rates from istori rate levels. Net energy for load (NEL), wi ad grown at an average of 2.2 perent between 1999 and 28, is expeted to inrease by 1.5 perent per year from 29 to 218. A lower ontribution from te wolesale jurisdition, wose billled energy grew an average of 8.2 perent between 1999 and 28, results in lower expeted system growt going forward at just.3 perent. Retail billed energy, wi grew at a 1.6 perent average rate istorially, is expeted to grow 1.7 perent over te next ten-year period. Te iger projeted growt rate is solely due to a return to a more typial weater pattern in te foreast. Summer net firm demand is expeted to grow at an average of 1.4 perent per year during te next ten (1) years. Tis is lower tan te 1.9 perent growt rate experiened trougout te last ten (1) years. Again, slower ustomer growt and lower ontribution from te wolesale jurisdition are expeted going forward. Also, iger load management apability for te projeted period olds down growt in firmi peak demand. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-1

16 ',n,n,.-,a, - Summer net firm retail demand is expeted to grow at an average of 1.7 perent per year during te next ten (1) years; tis is lower tan te 2. perent average annual growt rate experiened trougout te last ten-year period. Te istorial growt perentage was driven by a period of strong ustomer growt and delining load management apability wile te projetion period assumed weaker growt and return to iger load management apability..a ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND FORECAST SCHEDULES SCHEDULE 2.1, 2.2 and DESCRIPTION History and Foreast of Energy Consumption and Number of Customers by Customer Class History and Foreast of Summer Peak Demand (MW) History and Foreast of Winter Peak Demand (MW) History and Foreast of Annual Net Energy for Load (GW) Previous Year Atual and Two-Year Foreast of Peak Demand and Net Energy for Load by Mont - P - P. Ip Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-2

17 .,A.- PROGXESS ENERGY F'LORlDA I SCHEDULE 2.1 HISTORY AND FORIlCAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS BY CUSTOMER CLASS ,47, , ,47 13,387 1,327 14,897 73, ,116 1,234,286 13, , ,142, ,64 1,274,672 13,81 11,61 146,983 75, ,754 1,31,515 14, , ,287, ,429 1, , ,368, ,347 1,364, ,449, ,894 1, ,24 1 1, ,1 74, ,743 13,983 11, , ,552, ,912 1,442,853 13,8 12, , , , , ,449,79 13,554 11, ,834 72, ,593, ,563 1,457,415 13,423 11, ,668 72, ,632, ,23 1,473, , ,725 1,495,98 13, , , ,521, , ,s 17, ,548,531 13,899 12, ,882, ,575, % ,943, ,968 1,6,448 13, ,152 71, ,2, ,478 1,624, , ,252 71, ,5 1, ,962 13, , Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-3

18 r- PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA. SCHEDULE 2.2 HISTORY AND FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND NUMBER OF UJSTOMERS BY CUSTOMER CLASS I* (3) (4) (5),A YEAR GW INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE NO. OF CUSTOMERS AVERAGE Kw CONSUMPTI ON PER CUSTOMER RAILROADS AM) RAILWAYS Gw STREET & HIGHWAY LIGHTING Gw OTHERSALES TO PUBLIC AUTHORITIES Gw TOTAL SALES TOULTIMATE CONSUMERS Gw r , , , ,535 2, ,73 2,697 2, ,648,536 1, , ,513,81 1,488,84 1,531, , ,59 2, , ,171 3,249 3, ,832 35, ,89 3,93 4,18 4, ,564 4,492 4, , ,565 2, ,565 1,513,3 1,532,164 1,61,559 1,662,768 1,779,727 1,779,337 1, ,665,17 1,669,6 1, ,354 3,381 3,437 3, , ,99 4,1 4,91 38,721 38,819 39,835 41, , ,444 44, Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-4

19 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 2.3 HISTORY AND FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND NUMBKR OF CUSTOMERS BY CUSTOMER CLASS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) YEAR SALES FOR RESALE GW _ NET ENERGY FOR LOAD GW OTHER CUSTOMERS (AVERAGE NO.) TOTAL NO. OF CUSTOMERS ,267 3, , ,195 4, , ,678 1, ,57 2,389 2, ,16 41,242 4, ,911 45,268 46, ,633 47,658 19,6 2,4 2,752 21,155 21, ,71 23,182 24,1 24, ,4, ,475, ,583, ,632, , , ,255 8,457 8,658 7,217 7,157 7,219 7, , ,756 2,961 2,883 2, , ,93 48, , ,759 53,117 53, ,614 24, , , , ,173 1, ,67, ,757,554 1,788,22 1,817, ,871,76 Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-5

20 WDGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 3 1 HISTORY AM) FORECAST OF SUMMER PEAK DEMAND BASE CASK (4) (5) (9) NET FIRM DEMAND , , , % I % IO 66 1 IO ,%5 12,16 12, , ,691 1, , ,214 9, , % , ,864 Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-6

21 ?ROGRESS ENERGY FLORlDA SCHEDULE 3.2 HISTORY AND FORECAST OF WINTER PEAK DEMAND BASE CASE (9) orn I m. CONSERVATION OTHER DEMAND REDUCTIONS NETFIRM DEMAND ooO uo3 m3m4 zm111o / , , I.624 9, , , m I , wrJ9 29/ / / ,553 13,81 14,96 14,372 14,643 2, , loz , ,154 2,487 11, , % % ,836 11, Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-7

22 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 3.3 HISTORY AND FORECAST OF ANNUAL NET ENERGY FOR LOAD (GW) BASE CASE (3) (4) (9) , ,957 3,359 1,831 2, , , , ,177 5, ,556 6, , , ,328 5, , , , , ,836 56, , Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-8

23 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE4 PREVIOUS YEAR ACTUAL AND TWO-YEAR FORECAST OF PEAK DEMAND AND NET ENERGY FOR LOAD BY MONTH MONTH JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APm MAY JUNK JULY AUGUST SEPTEMFIER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER TOTAL PEAKDEMAND Mw 1,21 8,225 6,797 7,648 9,31 9,899 1,18 1,36 9,53 8,61 7,448 8,135 NEL Gw 3, ,511 3,813 4,42 4,628 4,723 4,73 4,575 3,78 3,278 3,312 47,658 (4) (5) FORECAST 29 PEAKDEMAM) NEL Mw 11,327 9,87 7,927 8,261 9,413 9,884 1,171 1,242 9,536 8, ,278 (a) (7) FORECAST 21 PEAKDEMAND NEL Mw Gw Gw 3,91 11,4 3, ,68 3,332 3,653 7,89 3,616 3, , ,4 4,36 4,58 9,877 4,55 4,83 1,159 4,85 4, ,943 4,431 9, ,933 4,O 13 3,355 7, , ,556 48,765 Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-9

24 FUEL REOUIREMENTS AND ENERGY SOURCES PEF s atual and projeted nulear, oal, oil, and gas requirements (by fuel unit) are sown in Sedule 5. PEF s two-year atual and ten-year projeted energy soures by fuel-type, are presented in Sedules 6.1 and 6.2, in GW and perent (%) respetively. PEF s fuel requirements and energy soures reflet a diverse fuel supply system tat is not dependent on any one fuel soure. Near term natural gais onsumption is projeted to inrease as plants and purases wit tolling agreements are added to meet future load growt. However, a derease in future fossil fuel onsumption is projeted wit te addition of planned new, advaned design nulear units. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-1

25 pp:ogrf,ss ENERGY FLORIDA COAL 1,OOOTON 6,18 5, , ,498 6,897 6, ,11 (3) RESIDUAL TOTAL (4) STEAM (5) (a) CT DIESEL 1,OOOBBL 7, ,OOOBBL OOOBBL 1,ooOBBL 1.OOOBBL 1,OOOBBL OOOBBL OOOBBL OOOBBL ,OOOBBL (13) NATVULGAS TOTAL (14) STEAM 115) (16) CT 1.OOOMCF , , ,OOOMCF 5,54 17,38 18,86 2,17 2,319 2,66 21,92 2, ,23 16,751 16,83 1.OOOMCF , ooOMCF 12, ,11 8,555 8, ,267 13, ,812 5,464 OTHER (SPECIFY) (17) THER.DlSTlLLAE ANNUALFIRfNERCHANGE 1.ooOBBL NIA NIA (18) THERNATVULGASANNUALFIRMNERCHANGE.CC 1.OOOMCF NIA NIA (18.1) THER.NATURALGASANNUALFIRMWTERCHANGE.CI 1.OOOMCF NIA NIA , Progress Energy Florida, In

26 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 6.1 ENERGY SOURCES (GW) (2) NUCLEAR GW , A (3) COAL GWb 15,293 14,219 13,49 13,7 14,672 16,281 16,55 I53 16,226 15, (4) msrnw. TOTAL GWb (5) STEAM GW 4, (a) CC GW CT GW (8) DIESEL GW DISTILLATE TOTAL GW STEAM GWb 5 46 CC GW 13 6 CT GW DIESEL GW TOTAL GW STEAM GW % CC GW CT GWb , o m 2/ QF PURCHASES RENEWABLES GWb GW IMPORT FROM OUT OF STATE GWb EXPORT TO OUT OF STATE GW -71-4? (19) NET ENERGY FORLOAD GW 47,633 47,658 48, ,647 52,759 53,117 53,644 54,612 55,614 1/ NET ENERGY PURCHASED (+) OR SOLD (-)WITHIN THE FRCC REGION 2 NET ENERGY PURCHASED (+) OR SOLD (-) Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-12

27 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 6.2 ENEICGY SOURCES O.n (7) u)14 u) (1) ANNUALFIRMINTERCHANGE 11 62% 5 7Yo 2.5% 2.4% 2.% 2.6% 3.6Yo 3 6% 3.8% 3.2% 1.9% 1.5%.e 129% 135% 1.4Yo % 15.% 13.8% 15../ ' 24.4Yo 38.4% 44.9% ) COAL 321% :!98% 26.9% 26.'7% 29.4% 31.% 3.8% 29.% 3.5Yo 29.% 23.3% 21.4% n (4) RESIDUAL TOTAL (5) STEAM (6) (7) CT (8) DIESEL 9 6'% 5 3% 9 6% 5 3K % % % % % % 4.2W 4.2Yo.%.%.% 8% 7Yo 8Yo 11% 11% 12% 11% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 11% 11% 12% 11% 6% 7Yo OCP % % om %. % % % OCP % % % % %. % % CI. % OVA. %. Ow. % % DISTILLATE TOTAL 6% 4%.1% OCP 1Y. 1Y. 1% 1% 1% 1% % % STEAM 1% 1Yo % %.%..% OC% % %. % % % % % OClN % % % % % % % % CT 5. ZYO.lM CI. 1% OlYO 1% 1% 1% 1% % % DIESEL % %.% OCP % % % % % % % % NATUFAL GAS TOTAL 22 2./. 2!99% % 45.5Yo % 43.2% 42.3% 36.3% 31.2% 27.2% STEAM 1% 34% 19 1% 2!4 6Yo 3.4?' 35.6% 3.1'96 3.7% 3.6Yo 3.8% 3.6%~ 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.8% % 35.7Yo % 36.5% 31.6% 27.3Yo 23.4% CT 2 1% 19% 2.lYO 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 1.W OTHER Y QF PURCHASES RKNEWABLES % 63Yo 5 8Yo 5% 4 8Yo 47% 4 5Yo 4% 25% 25% 2 5% 24% 2 3Y % 25K 2 1Yo 24% 24Vo 2 3Yo 22Yo 22% 22% % 2 1% 2. IMPORT FROM OUT OF STATE Yo 77% 76% 74% 49% 33% 3 1Yo 34Yo 33% 34% 12%.. EXPORT TO OUT OF STATE K -1% 1% % OC% % ow. % % % % % % (19) NET ENERGY FOR LOAD Yo 1.o. 1Doo% 1.% 1% 1.W 1.o. 1.o. 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% I/ NET ENERGY PURCHASED (+) OR SOLD (-) WITHIN THK FRCC REGION. Y NET ENERGY PURCHASED (+) OR SOLD (-). Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-13

28 FORECASTING METHODS AND PROCEDURES INTRODUCTION Aurate foreasts of long-range eletri energy onsumption, ustomer growt, and peak demand are essential elements in eletri utility planning. Aurate projetions of a utility s future load growt require a foreasting metodology wit te ability to aount for a variety of fators influening eletri energy usage over te planning orizon. PEF s foreasting framework utilizes a set of eonometri models to aieve tis end. Tis setion will desribe te underlying metodology of te ustomer, energy, and peak denland foreasts inluding te prinipal assumptions inorporated witin ea. Also inluded is a desription of ow Demand-Side Management (DSM) impats te foreast, te development of ig and low foreast senarios and a review of DSM programs. Figure 2.1, entitled Customer, Energy and Demand Foreast, gives a general desription of PEF s foreasting proess. Higligted in te diagram is a disaggregated modeling approa tat blends te impats of average lass usage, as well as ustomer growt, based on a speifi set of assumptions for ea lass. Also aounted for is some diret ontat wit large ustomers. Tese inputs provide te tools needed to frame te most likely senario of te ompany s future demand..n FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Te first step in any foreasting effort is te (development of assumptions upon wi te foreast is based. Te Finanial Servies Department develops tese assumptions based on disussions wit a number of departments witin PEF, as well as troug te resear efforts of a number of external soures. Tese assumptions speifl major fators tat influene te level of ustomers, energy sales, or peak demand over te foreast orizon. Te following set of assumptions forms te basis for te foreast presented in tis doument. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-14

29 FIGURE 2.1 Customer, Energy, and Demand Foreast I 1 Foreast Assumptions Eonomi-Demograpi- Weater.-,e EVALUATION Preliminary Customer, Energy, and Demand Foreast Review and Approval BY Senior Management.n OFFICIAL Customer, Energy, and Demand Foreast System Requirements Generation Planning Transmission, Distribution Planning Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-15

30 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Normal weater onditions for energy sales are assumed over te foreast orizon using a salesweigted tirty-year average of onditions at seven ( 7) weater stations aross Florida (Saint Petersburg, Tampa, Orlando, Winter Haven, Gainesville, Daytona Bea, and Tallaassee). For kilowatt-our sales projetions, normal weater is based on a istorial tirty-year average of te servie area weigted billing montl degree-days. Seasonal peak demand projetions are based on a tirty-year istorial average of system-weigted temperatures at time of seasonal peak at te Tampa, Orlando, and Tallaassee weater stations; te oter weater stations are not used in developing te istori average beause tey lak te istori ourly data needed for peak-weater normalization. 2. Te population projetions produed by te Bureau of Eonomi and Business Resear (BEBR) at te University of Florida as ]publised in Florida Population Studies Bulletin No. 15 (Mar 28) provide te basis for development of te ustomer foreast. An update to inlude a downward revision to State-wide growt made by te BEBR in July 28 was inorporated to apture te latest trends being witnessed in te PEF servie area. State and national eonomi assumptions produed by Eonomy.Com in teir national and Florida foreasts (September 28) are also inluded. 3. Witin te PEF servie area, te pospate mining industry is te dominant setor in te industrial sales lass. Four (4) major ustomers aounted for 32 perent of te industrial lass MW sales in 28. Tese energy intensive ustomers mine and proess pospate-based fertilizer produts for te global marketplae. Te supply and demand for teir produts are ditated by global onditions tat inlude, but are not limited to, foreign ompetition, nationalntemational agriultural industry onditions, exange-rate flutuations, and international trade pats. Load and energy onsumption at te PEF-served mining or emial proessing sites depend eavily on plant operations, wi are eavily influened by tese global as well as te loal onditions. After years of exess mining apaity and weak produt priing power, te industry as onsolidated down to just a few players in time to take advantage of better market onditions. In addition, a weaker U.S urreny value on te foreign exange as elped te industry in two (2) ways. First, Amerian f m ommodities ave Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-16

31 beome more ompetitive overseas wi as ontributed to iger rop prodution at ome. Te demand for orn-based etanol as also inreased farm areage. Bot impats are expeted to ontinue to maintain and inrease te demand for fertilizer produts. Seond, a weak U.S. dollar results in U.S. fertilizer produers beoming more prie ompetitive relative to foreign produers. Going forward, energy onsumption is expeted to inrease in te near term, as a new mine operation is expeted to open. A signifiant risk to tis projetion lies in te volatile prie of energy, wi is a major ost of bot mining and produing pospori fertilizers. Te energy projetion for tis, industry assumes no major redutions or sutdowns of operations in te servie territory. Tis inludes any ange in output fkom self-owned generation failities, wi remove load &om PEF generation failities. 4. PEF supplies load and energy servie to wolesale ustomers on a "full", "partial", and "supplemental" requirement basis. Full requirements (FR) ustomers' demand and energy is assumed to grow at a rate tat approxirnates teir istorial trend. Contrats for tis servie inlude te ities of Bartow, Cattaoolee, Mt. Dora, Quiny, Williston, and Winter Park. Partial requirements (PR) ustomer load is assumed to reflet te urrent ontratual obligations refleted by te nature of tle stratified load tey ave ontrated for, plus teir ability to reeive dispated energy from power marketers any time it is more eonomial for tem to do so. Contrats for PR servie inludedl in tis foreast are wit te Florida Muniipal Power Ageny (FMPA), Reedy Creek Utilities, TECO Energy, Seminole Eletri Cooperative, In. (SECI) and te ities of New Smyrna Bea, Tallaassee, Gainesville and Homestead. PEF's ontratual arrangement wit SECI inludes a "supplemental" servie ontrat ( 1983 ontrat) for servie over and above stated levels tey ommit to supply temselves. Tis ontrat as been renegotiated and will ange from a supplemental nature sale to a "stratified apaity" sale onsisting of a base, peaking and system average piees beginning in 214 wen te term of tis ontrat expires in Deember 213. A firm ontrat wit SECI for stratified intermediate servie, wil inludes bot 45 MW (Otober 1995 ontrat) and an additional 15 MW in 212, is ontained in tis projetion. Anoter ontrat wit varying levels of stratified demands ranging from 75 MW to 3 MW will be served in 29 and a Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-17

32 FR ontrat wi will ommene in 21 and last troug te foreast orizon, are also ontained in tis foreast. Finally, an agreement to provide interruptible servie at a SECI metering site as also been inluded in tis projetion. 5. Tis foreast assumes tat PEF will sui:ssfully renew all future franise agreements. 6. Tis foreast inorporates demand and energy redutions from PEF's dispatable and non- dispatable DSM programs required to imeet te approved goals set by te FPSC. 7. Expeted energy and demand redutilons from ustomer-owned self-servie ogeneration failities are also inluded in tis foreast. PEF will supply te supplemental load of selfservie ogeneration ustomers. Wile PEF offers "standby" servie to all ogeneration ustomers, te foreast does not assume an unplanned need for power at time of peak. 8. Tis foreast assumes tat te regulatory environment and te obligation to serve our retail ustomers will ontinue trougout te foreast orizon. Regarding wolesale ustomers, te ompany does not plan for generation resoures unless a long-term ontrat is in plae. Current FR ustomers are assumed to renew teir ontrats wit PEF exept tose wo ave given notie to terminate. Current PR ontrats are projeted to terminate as terms rea teir expiration date. Deviation from tese assumptions an our, based on information provided by te Portfolio Management Department.,A.- SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Te eonomi outlook for tis foreast was developed in mid-28 as te omebuilding market ontinued its signifiant downturn. Tis market sift as ontributed to te lak of PEF ustomer growt..ci Te foreast was developed in a year of eonomi instability. Reord ig oil pries dereased onsumption, terefore assisting in slowing, eonomi growt. Initial laims for unemployment insurane ad inreased signifiantly and Staie and National employment levels ad dereased ea mont. Te Federal Reserve Board ommened a series of interest rate uts in response to te Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-18

33 eonomi anges. Te early stages of te serious redit risis ad just begun. In Florida, te rising ome forelosures and falling ome values as well as a large inventory of unsold omes is expeted to old down new onstrution for most of 29. A signifiant inrease in eletri pries was assumed as utilities needed to pass-troug iger fuel osts. Tis would result in a derease in average ustomer usage. However Florida real estate values ave dereased enoug to no longer be onsidered over-valued. Tis is expeted to result in a return to more normal levels of new resident migration and ome buying. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC ASSUMPTEONS Te long-term eonomi outlook assumes tlat anges in eonomi and demograpi onditions, as well as tenologial ange in te eletri utility industry, will follow a trended beavior pattern. Te main fous involves identifying tese trends. No attempt is made to predit business yle flutuations or rapid penetration of a signifiant tenologial breaktroug impating eletri utility energy sales during tis period. Population Growt Trends Tis foreast assumes Florida will experiene slower new resident migration and population growt over parts of te long term, as refleted in te BEBR projetions. Florida's limate and low ost of living ave istorially attrated a major sare of te retirement population from te eastern alf of te United States. Tis will1 ontinue to our primarily beause te soon to be retiring baby-boom generation will inreasle te size of available retirees apable of moving to te Sout. Working against tis signifiani: trend will be several aesteti and eonomi fators. First, te enormous growt in population and orresponding development of te 198s, 199s and early 2s made portions of Florida less desirable and less affordable for retirement living. Tis pereived diminised quality of retiree life, along wit inreasing ompetition from neigboring states, will ause a sligt deline in Florida's sare of tese prospetive new residents over te long term. Seond, and to a lesser extent, tere is a lingering fear for safety and expense from urriane damage. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-19

34 Eonomi Growt Trends Sine te beginning of te Post-91 1 period, Florida experiened a 198s-style population explosion and rapid servie-setor job reation. Te State as benefited greatly from generational lows in interest rates, wi, along wit investors' unfriendly attitude toward te equity markets, set te stage for a tremendous surge in ome onstrution. Te national level of omebuilding in 24-26, set an all time reord. Tis growt produed strong gains in bot te onstrution industry and servie-produing setors of te Florida eonomy. However, te period will reflet a reord slump. Nationwide, te amount of ousing setor redit as redued. Te availability of money making its way into te mortgage market as signifiantly dereased as te risk to lenders as risen. U.S. onsumer debt as inreased, sine te 21 eonomi downturn. Wit te lak of inome growt, redit being unavailable, and redued wealt, a growing U.S. savings rate ours as well as a return to trend-level growt. As te eonomy begins a new ylial upturn, a sort period of demand reated by retirees wo were unable to sell teir omes and unusuallly low mortgage rates sould begin by 21. A more sustained level of ustomer growt nearing te istorial average will our. Te istorially low interest rates are expeted to produe an inrease in ome oupany. More importantly, te deline in ome pries as returned te ousing market to a more typial level wile providing a more affordable produt. Going forward, tese and oter impats indiate tat a more level growt pattern is expeted. Te foreast assumes stable growt in real eletriity prie over te long term. Tat is, te ange in te nominal prie of eletriity per kw over time is expeted to be lose to te overall rate of inflation. Tis also implies tat fiiture fuel prie esalation will trak at or below te general rate of inflation trougout te foreast orizon. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-2

35 . A..- Real personal inomes are assumed to inrease trougout te foreast period tereby boosting te average ustomer's ability to purase eletriity. As inomes grow faster tan te prie of eletriity, onsumers, on average, will remlain inlined to purase additional eletri applianes and inrease teir utilization of existing endl-uses. FORECAST METHODOLOGY Te PEF foreast of ustomers, energy sales, and peak. demand is developed using ustomer lass-speifi eonometri models. Tese models are expressly designed to apture lassspeifi variation over time. By modeling ustomer growt and average energy usage individually, subtle anges in existing ustomer usage are better aptured as well as growt from new ustomers. Peak demand models are projeted, on a disaggregated basis as well. Tis allows for appropriate andling of individual assumptions in te areas of wolesale ontrats, load management, and interruptible servie. A 'C *A ENERGY AND CUSTOMER FORECAST In te retail jurisdition, ustomer lass models ave: been speified sowing a istorial relationsip to weater and eonomi/demograpi indiators using montly data for sales models and annual data for ustomer models. Sales are regressed against "driver" variables tat best explain montly flutuations over te istorial sample period. Foreasts of tese input variables are eiter derived internally or ome from a review of te latest projetions made by several independent foreasting onerns. Te external soures of data inlude Moody's Eonomy.Com and te University of Florida's Bureau of Eonomi and Business Resear (BEBR). Internal ompany foreasts are used for projetions of eletriity prie, weater onditions, and te lengt of te billing mont. Normal weater, wi is assumed trougout te foreast orizon, is based on te 3-year average of eating and ooling degree-days by mont as measured at several weater stations trougout Florida for energy projetions and temperatures around te our of peak for te firm retail demand foreast. Projetions, of PEF's demand-side management (onservation programs) are also inorporated as redutions to te foreast. Speifi setors are modeled as follows : F Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-2 I

36 Residential Setor Residential kw usage per ustomer is modeled as a funtion of real Florida personal inome, ooling degree-days, eating degree-days, te real prie of eletriity to te residential lass and te average number of billing days in ea sales mont. Tis equation aptures signifiant variation in residential usage aused by eonomi yles, weater flutuations, eletri prie movements, and sales mont duration. Projetions of kw usage per ustomer ombined wit te ustomer foreast provide te foreast of total residential energy sales. Te residential ustomer foreast is developed by orrelating annual ustomer growt witl PEF servie area population growt. County level population projetions for te twenty-nine (29) ounties, in wi PEF serves residential ustomers, are provided by te BEBR. F. Commerial Setor Commerial MW energy sales are foreast based on ommerial setor (non-agriultural, nonmanufaturing and non-governmental) employment, te real prie of eletriity to te ommerial lass, te average number of billing days in ea sales mont and eating and ooling degree-days. Te measure of ooling degree-days utilized ere differs sligtly from tat used in te residential setor refleting different temperature base sensitivities,,wen eating and ooling load beome observable. Commerial ustomers are projeted as a ntion of te number of residential ustomers served. Industrial Setor Energy sales to tis setor are separated into two sub-setors. A signifiant portion of industrial energy use is onsumed by te pospate mining industry. Beause tis one (1) industry is a tirtytwo (32) perent sare of te total industrial lass, it is separated and modeled apart fiom te rest of te lass. Te term "non-pospate industrial" is used to refer to tose ustomers wo omprise te remaining portion of total industrial lass sales. Bot groups are impated signifiantly by anges in eonomi ativity. However, adequately explaining sales levels requires separate explanatory variables. Non-pospate industrial energy sales are modeled using Florida manufaturing employment and a Florida industrial prodution index, te: real prie of eletriity to te industrial lass, and te average number of sales mont, billing days. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-22

37 Te industrial pospate mining industry :is modeled using ustomer-speifi information wit respet to expeted market onditions. Sine tis subl-setor is omprised of only four (4) ustomers, te foreast is dependent upon information reeived fiom diret ustomer ontat. PEF industrial ustomer representatives provide: speifi pospate ustomer information regarding ustomer prodution sedules, inventory levels, area ]mine-out and start-up preditions, and anges in self-servie generation or energy supply situations over te foreast orizon. Street Ligting Eletriity sales to te street and igway ligting lass las varied up and down but overall as remained flat for te past fifteen (15) years. A sligt deline is expeted as improvements in effiieny are projeted. Te number of aounts, wi as dropped by two-tirds in te past fourteen (14) years due to most transferring to publi autority ownersip, is expeted to deline rter before leveling off in te intermediate term. A simple time-trend was used to projet energy onsumption and ustomer growt in tis lass. Publi Autorities Energy sales to publi autorities (SPA), ornprised mostly of government operated servies, is also projeted to grow wit te size of te servie area. Te level of government servies, and tus energy use per ustomer, an be tied to te population base, as well as to te state of te eonomy. Fators affeting population growt will affet te need for additional governmental servies (i.e. publi sools, ity servies, et.) tereby inreasing SPA energy usage per ustomer. Government employment as been determined to be te best indiator of te level of government servies provided. Tis variable, along wit eating and ooling degree-days (lass speifi), te real prie of eletriity and te average number of sales mont billing days, results in a signifiant level of explained variation over te istorial sample period. Interept sift variables are also inluded in tis model to aount for te large ange in sool-related energy use in te billing monts of January, July, and August. Te SPA ustomer foreast is projeted linearly as a funtion of a timetrend. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-23

38 Sales for Resale Setor Te Sales for Resale setor enompasses all firm sales to oter eletri power entities. Tis inludes sales to oter utilities (muniipal or investor-owned) as well as power agenies (rural eletri autority or muniipal). Seminole Eletri Cooperative, In. (SECI) is a wolesale, or sales for resale, ustomer of PEF on bot a supplemental ontrat basis and ontrat demand basis. Under te supplemental ontrat, PEF provides servie for tose energy requirements above te level of generation apaity served by eiter SECI's own failities or its firm purase obligations. Montly supplemental energy is developed using an average istlorial load sape of total SECI load in te PEF ontrol area, subtrating out te level of SECI "ommitted" apaity from ea our. Beyond supplemental servie, PEF as several agreements wit SECI to serve various types of stratified demand levels deemed by teir resoure planners as neessary..- Te muniipal sales for resale lass inludes a number of ustomers, divergent not only in sope of servie, (i.e. full or partial requirement), but also in omposition of ultimate onsumers. Ea ustomer is modeled separately in order to aurately reflet its individual profile. Several of te ustomers in tis lass are muniipalities wose full energy requirements are supplied by PEF. Te full requirement ustomers' energy projetions grow at a rate tat approximates teir istorial trend. Sine te ultimate onsumers of eletriity in tis setor are, to a large degree, residential and ommerial ustomers, it is assumed tat teir use patterns will follow tose of te PEF retail-based residential and ommerial ustomer lasses. PEF serves partial requirement servie (PR) to muniipalities su as New Smyrna Bea (NSB), Homestead, Gainesville and Tallaassee, and oter power providers like FMPA and Reedy Creek Utilities In ea ase, tese ustomers ontrat wit PEF for a speifi level and type of demand needed to1 provide teir partiular eletrial system wit an appropriate level of reliability. Te energy foreast for ea ontrat is derived using its istorial load fators were enoug istory exists, or typial load fators for a given type of ontrated stratified load. Te energy projetions for FMPA also inlude a "losses servie ontrat" for energy PEF supplies to FMPA for transrnission losses inurred wen "weeling" power to teir ultimate ustomers in PEF's transmission area. Tis projetion is based on te projeted n Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-24

39 'A,A -..-.A. requirements of te aggregated needs of tlne ities of Oala, Leesburg, Busnell, Havana, and Newbeny. PEAK DEMAND FORECAST Te foreast of peak demand also employs a disaggregated eonometri metodology. For seasonal (winter and summer) peak demands, as well as ea mont of te year, PEF's oinident system peak is separated into five (5) major omponents. Tese omponents onsist of potential firm retail load, onservation and load management program apability, wolesale demand, ompany use demand and interruptible demand.,a Potential firm retail load refers to projetions of PEF retail ourly seasonal net peak demand (exluding te non-firm interruptible/urtaible/standby servies) before te umulative effets of any onservation ativity or te ativation of PEF's Load Management program. Te istorial values of tis series are onstruted to sow te size of PEIF's firm retail net peak demand assuming no utility-indued onservation or load ontrol ad taken plae. Te value of onstruting su a "lean" series enables te foreaster to observe and orrelate te underlying trend in retail peak demand to total system ustomer levels and oinident weater onditions at te time of te peak witout te impats of year-to-year variation in onservation ativity or load ontrol redutions. Seasonal peaks are projeted using istorial seasonal peak data regardless of wi mont te peak ourred. Te projetions beome te potential retail demand projetion for te mont of January (winter) and August (summer) sine tis is typially wlen te seasonal peaks our. Te nonseasonal peak monts are projeted te same as te seasonal peaks, but te analysis is limited to te speifi mont being projeted. Energy onservation and diret load ontrol estimates are onsistent wit PEF's DSM goals tat ave been approved by te FPSC. Tea8e estimates are inorporated into te MW foreast. Projetions of dispatable and umulative non-dispatable DSM are subtrated from te projetion of potential firm retail demand resulting in a projeted series of retail montly peak demand figures one would expet to our. Sales for Resale demand projetions represent load supplied by PEF to oter eletri utilities su as SECI, FMPA, and oter eletri distribution ompanies. Te SECI supplemental demand Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-25

40 projetion is based on a trend of teir istorial demand witin te PEF ontrol area. Te level of MW to be served by PEF is dependent upon te amount of generation resoures SECI supplies itself or ontrats fiom oters. An assumption is made tat SECI will sift teir level of self-serve resoures to meet teir base and intermediate load needs. For Partial Requirement demand projetions, ontrat levels ditate te level of montly demands. Te Full Requirement muniipal demand foreast is estimated for individual ities using istorially trended growt rates. PEF "ompany use" at te time of system peak is estimated using load resear metering studies and is assumed to remain stable over te freast orizon. as it as istorially. Te interruptible and urtailable servie (IS and CS) load omponent is developed fiom istori trends, as well as te inorporation of speifi information obtained from PEF's large industrial aounts by aount exeutives. Ea of te peak demand omponents deslribed above :is a positive value exept for te DSM program MW impats and IS and CS load. Tese impats represent a redution in peak demand and are assigned a negative value. Total system firm peak demand is ten alulated as te aritmeti sum of te five (5) omponents..- CONSERVATION PEF's DSM performane is presented in te following tables, wi ompare te onservation savings atually aieved troug PEF's DSM programs for te reporting years of 25 troug 28 wit te Commission-approved onservations goals. On August 9, 24, te FPSC issued a PAA Order approving new onservation goals for PEF tat span te ten-year period from 25 troug 214, as well as a new DSM Plan for PEF tat was speifially designed to meet te new onservation goals (Doket 431-EG, Order No. PSC PAA-EG). On January 5, 27, te FPSC issued a PAA Order approving tirtynine (39) additional DSM measures and two (2) residential programs, wi will serve to inrease te demand and energy savings available troug PEF's DSM Plan (Doket 6647: Consummating Order PSC-7-17-CO-EG making Order PSC TRF-EG effetive and final). Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-26

41 Summer MW Year Goal Aieved Winter MW Annual GW Energy Aieved Goal Aieved : Summer MW Year Goal Aieved Winter MFV Annual GW Energy Goal Aieved Te foreasts ontained in tis Ten-Year Site Plan doument are based on tese 27 program additions and modifiations to PEF s DSM Plan and, terefore, appropriately reflet te most urrent projetion of DSM savings over te next ten (1.) years. PEF s DSM Plan onsists of seven (7) residential programs, eigt (8) ommerial and industrial programs, and one (1) resear and development program. Te programs are subjet to periodi monitoring and evaluation for te purpose of ensuring tat all DSM resoures are aquired in a ost-effetive manner and tat te program savings are durable. Te following is a brief desription of tese programs. RESIDENTIAL PROGRAMS Home Energy Cek Program Tis energy audit program provides ustomers wit an analysis of teir urrent energy use and reommendations on ow tey an save on teir eletriity bills troug low-ost or no-ost energy-saving praties and measures. Te Home Energy Cek program offers PEF ustomers Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-27

42 te following types of audits: Type 1: Free Walk-Troug Audit (Home Energy Cek); Type 2: Customer-Completed Mail In Audit (Do It Yourself Home Energy Cek); Type 3: Online Home Energy Cek (Internet Option)-a ustomer-ompleted audit; Type 4: Pone Assisted Audit - a ustomer assisted survey of struture and appliane use; Type 5: Computer Assisted Audit; Type 6: Home Energy Rating Audit (Class I, 11, 111); Type 7: Student Mail In Audit - a student-ompleted audit, Te Home Eneirgy Cek Program serves as te foundation of te Home Energy Improvement Program in tat te audit is a prerequisite for partiipation in te energy saving measures offered in te Home Energy Improvement Program. Home Energy Improvement Program Tis is te umbrella program to inrease energy effiieny for existing residential omes. It ombines effiieny improvements to te termal envelope wit upgraded eletri applianes. Te program provides inentives for atti iinsulation upgrades, dut testing and repair, and ig effiieny eletri eat pumps. Additional measures witin tis program inlude spray-in wall insulation, entral AC 14 SEER non-eletri eat, andl supply and return plenum dut seal, proper sizing of ig effiieny HVAC, HVAC ommissioning, refletive roof oating for manufatured omes, refletive roof for single-family omes, window film or sreen, and replaement windows. Residential New Constrution Program Tis program promotes energy effiient new ome onstrution in order to provide ustomers wit more effiient dwellings ombined wit improved environmental omfort. Te program provides eduation and information to te design and building ommunity on energy effiient equipment and onstrution. It also failitates te design and onstrution of energy effiient omes by working diretly wit te builders to omlply wit program requirements. Te program provides inentives to te builder for ig effiieny eletri eat pumps and ig performane windows. Te igest level of te prograim inorporates te U.S. Environmental Protetion Ageny's Energy Star Homes Program and. qualifies partiipants for ooperative advertising. Additional measures witin te Residential New Constrution Program inlude HVAC ommissioning, window film or sreen, refletive roof for single-family omes, atti spray-on foam insulation, onditioned spae air andler, and energy reovery ventilation. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-28

43 Low Inome Weaterization Assistane Program Tis umbrella program seeks to improve energy effiieny for low-inome ustomers in existing residential dwellings. It ombines effiieny improvements to te termal envelope wit upgraded eletri applianes. Te program provides ineintives for atti insulation upgrades, dut testing and repair, redued air infiltration, water eater wrap, HVAC maintenane, ig effiieny eat pumps, eat reovery units, and dediated eat pump water eaters. Neigborood Energy Saver Program Te Neigborood Energy Saver (NES) Program onsists of twelve (12) measures inluding ompat fluoresent bulb replaement, wa1:er eater wrap and insulation for water pipes, water eater temperature ek and adjustment, low-flow fauet aerator, low-flow soweread, refrigerator oil brus, HVAC filters, and weaterization measures (i.e. weater stripping, door sweeps, et.). In addition to te installation of new onservation measures, an important omponent of tis program is eduating families on energy effiieny teniques and te promotion of beavioral anges to elp ustomers ontrol teir energy usage. Residential Energy Management Program (Energy Wise) Tis is a voluntary ustomer program tat allows PEF to redue peak demand and tus defer generation onstrution. Peak demand is redued by interrupting servie to seleted eletrial equipment wit radio-ontrolled swites installed on te ustomer s premises. Tese interruptions are at PEF s option, during speified time periods, and oinident wit ours of peak demand. Partiipating ustomers reeive a montly redit on teir eletriity bills prorated above 6 kw per mont. Renewable Energy Program Te Renewable Energy Program is designed to redue system peak demand and inrease renewable energy generation on te PEF grid. Te program seeks to meet te following overall goals: 1. Obtain energy and demand redutions tat are signifiant and measurable. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-29

44 ,n.n Enane ustomerkontrator awareness of te apabilities of renewable energy tenologies. Eduate ustomerkontrator about aidditional opportunities to generate and use renewable energy. Develop and offer renewable energy measures to te marketplae. Minimize ''lost opportunities" in te renewable energy market. Inrease partiipation in te PEF Load Management program. Te Renewable Energy Program onsists of two (2) measures: Solar Water Heater wit EnergyWise - Tis measure enourages residential ustomers to install a solar termal water eating system. Te ustomer must ave wole ouse eletri ooling, eletri water eating, and eletri eating to be eligible for tis program. Pool eaters and potovoltai systems would not qualify. In order to qualify for tis inentive, te eating, air onditioning, and water eating systems must be on te Energy Management Program (EnergyWise) and te solar termal system must provide a minimum of fifty (5) perent of te water-eating load. Solar Potovoltais wit Energy Wise (SolarWise for Sools) - Tis measure promotes environmental stewardsip and renewable energy eduation troug te installation of solar energy systems at sools witin PEF's servie territory. Customers partiipating in te Winter-Only Energy Management or Year-Round 13nergy Management plan an elet to donate teir montly redit toward te SolarWise for Sools. Te program will aumulate assoiated partiipant redits in a separate fund for a period of two (2) years, at wi time te ustomer may elet to renew for an additional two (2) years. All proeeds olleted from partiipating ustomers, and teir assoiated montly redits, will be used to promote potovoltais and renewable energy eduation opportunities. COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL (CD) PFLOGRAMS Business Energy Cek Program Tis energy audit program provides ommlerial and industrial ustomers wit an assessment of te urrent energy usage at teir failities, reommendations on ow tey an improve te environmental onditions of teir failities wile saving on teir eletriity bills, and information r C Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-3.n

45 ,n,n. on low-ost energy effiieny measures. Te Business Energy Cek onsists of a free walktroug audit and a paid walk-troug audit. Small business ustomers also ave te option to omplete a Business Energy Cek online at Progress Energy s website. In most ases, tis program is a prerequisite for partiipation in te oter C/I programs. Better Business Program Tis is te umbrella effiieny program for existing ommerial and industrial ustomers. Te program provides ustomers wit informati on, eduation, and advie on energy-related issues as well as inentives on effiieny measures tat are ost-effetive to PEF and its ustomers. Te Better Business Program promotes energy effiient eating, ventilation, air onditioning (HVAC), building retrofit measures (in partiular, eilinig insulation upgrade, dut leakage test and repair, energy-reovery ventilation, and Energy Star ool roof oating produts), demandontrol ventilation, effiient ompressed air systems, effiient motors, effiient indoor ligting, green roof, oupany sensors, pakaged AC steam leaning, roof insulation, roof-top unit reommissioning, termal energy storage and window film or sreen. Commerialdustrial New Constrution Program Te primary goal of tis program is to foster te design and onstrution of energy effiient buildings. Te new onstrution program: 1) provides e:duation and information to te design ommunity on all aspets of energy effiient building design; 2)requires tat te building design, at a minimum, surpass te State of Florida energy ode; 3) provides finanial inentives for speifi energy effiient equipment; and 4) provides energy design awards to building design teams. Inentives will be provided for ig effiieny HVAC equipment, energy reovery ventilation, Energy Star ool roof oatiing produts, demand-ontrol ventilation, effiient ompressed air systems, effiient motors, effiient indoor ligting, green roof, oupany sensors, roof insulation, termal energy storage and window film or sreen. Innovation Inentive Program Tis program promotes a redution in demand and energy by subsidizing energy onservation projets for ustomers in PEF s servie territory. Te intent of te program is to enourage legitimate energy effiieny measures tat redue kw dlemand and or kw energy, but are not Progress Energy Florida, In

46 addressed by oter programs. Energy effiieny opportunities are identified by PEF representatives during a Business Energy Cek audit. If a andidate projet meets program speifiations, it will be eligible for an ineintive payment, subjet to PEF approval. Commerial Energy Management Prograin (Rate Sedule GSLM-1) Tis diret load ontrol program redues I EF s demand during peak or emergeny onditions. As desribed in PEF s DSM Plan, tis program is urrently losed to new partiipants. It is appliable to existing program partiipants wo ave eletri spae ooling equipment suitable for interruptible operation and are eligible for servie under te Rate Sedule GS-1, GST-1, GSD-1, or GSDT-1. Te program is also appliable to existing partiipants wo ave any of te following eletrial equipment installed on permanent residential strutures and utilized for domesti (ouseold) purposes: 1) water eater(s), 2) entral eletri eating systems(s), 3) entral eletri ooling system(s), and or 4) swimming pool pump(s). Customers reeive a montly redit on teir bills depending on te type of equipment in te program and te interruption sedule. Standby Generation Program Tis demand ontrol program redues PEF s demand based upon te indiret ontrol of ustomer generation equipment. Tis is a voluntary program available to all ommerial, industrial, and agriultural ustomers wo ave on-site generation apability of at least 5 kw, and are willing to redue teir PEF demand wen PEF delems it neessary. Te ustomers partiipating in te Standby Generation program reeive a montly redit on teir eletriity bills aording to te demonstrated ability of te ustomer to redue demand at PEF s request. Interruptible Servie Program Tis diret load ontrol program redues PEF s demand at times of apaity sortage during peak or emergeny onditions. Te program is available to qualified non-residential ustomers wit an average billing demand of 5 IkW or more, wo are willing to ave teir power interrupted. PEF will ave remote ontrol of te iruit breaker or disonnet swit supplying te ustomer s equipment. In return for tis ability to interrupt load, ustomers partiipating in Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-32

47 te Interruptible Servie program reeive a montly interruptible demand redit applied to teir eletri bills... Curtailable Servie Tis diret load ontrol program redues PEF s demand at times of peak or emergeny onditions. Te program is available to qualified non-residential ustomers wit an average billing demand of 5 kw or more, wo are willing to urtail 25 perent of teir average montly billing demand. Customers partiipating in te Curtailable Servie program reeive a montly urtailable demand redit applied to teir eletri bills. #- in RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PR.OGRAMS Tenology Development Program Te primary purpose of tis program is to establis a system to Aggressively pursue resear, development and demonstration projets jointly wit oters as well as individual projets (Rule (5)(f), Florida Administration Code). PEF will undertake ertain development, eduational and demonstration projets tat ave promise to beome ost-effetive demand redution and energy effiieny programs. Tis would inlude projets like Prie Responsive Demand Redution wit a Home Area Network for load management apabilities, wi te Company is urrently evaluating and testing. Te objetive of tis projet is to develop te next generation of load management wit goals of inreasing (ustomer awareness to use energy more effiiently, wile advaning demand response apabilities. Additional projets inlude te evaluation of off-peak generation wit energy storage for on-peak demand onsumption, and Plug-In Hybrid Eletri Veiles wit vefdle-to-grid disarge. In most ases, ea demand redution and energy effiieny projet tat is proposed and investigated under tis program requires field-testing wit ustomers. Progress Energy Florida, In. 2-33

48 (XL4 PTER 3 FORECAST OF FACILITIES REQlJlREAfENTS

49 .n n - CHAPTER 3 FORECAST OF FACILITIES REQUIREMENTS.n,.n n.a,n RESOURCE PLANNING FORECAST OVERVIEW OF CURRENT FORECASIT Supply-Side Resoures PEF as a summer total apaity resoure of 11,197 MW (see Table 3.1). Tis apaity resoure inludes nulear (789 MW), fossil steam (3,879 MW), ombined yle plants (2,117MW), ombustion turbine (2,54 MW; 143 MW of wi is owned by Georgia Power for te monts June troug September), utility purased poweir (485 MW), independent power purases (636 MW), and non-utility purased power (787 MW). Table 3.2 presents PEF s firm apaity ontrats wit QualifLing Failities (QF s). Demand-Side Programs Total Demand-Side Management (DSM) resoures are presented in Sedules 3.1 and 3.2 of Capter 2. Tese programs inlude Non-Dispatable DSM, Interruptible Load, and Dispatable Load Control resoures. PEF s 29 Ten-Year Site Plan Demand-Side Management projetions are onsistent wit te DSM Goals establised by te Commission in Doket No. 431-EG. Capaity and Demand Foreast PEF s foreasts of apaity and demand for te projeted summer and winter peaks an been found in Sedules 7.1 and 7.2, respetively. PEF s foreasts of apaity and demand are based on serving expeted growt in retail requirements in its regulated servie area and meeting ommitments to wolesale power ustomers; wo ave entered into supply ontrats wit PEF. In its planning proess, PEF balanes its supply plan for te needs of retail and wolesale ustomers and endeavors to ensure tat ost-effetive resoures are available to meet te needs aross te ustomer base. Over te years, as wolesale markets iave grown more ompetitive, PEF as remained ative in te ompetitive soliitations wile planning in a manner tat maintains an appropriate balane of ommitments and resoures witin te overall regulated supply framework. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-1

50 .- r-,n Base Expansion Plan PEF s planned supply resoure additions and anges are slnown in Sedule 8 and are referred to as PEF s Base Expansion Plan. Tis Plan inludes a net gain in summer apaity of 3,2 MWs. As identified in Sedule 8, PEF s next planned unit is te Bartow Repowering Projet wit an expeted ompletion date of June 29. Tis projet is followed by te planned installation of ombustion turbine tenology in 214 and 215 at te Suwannee River Plant and new nulear generation at te Company s Levy County site in 216 and 217. Tese additions depend, in part, on projeted load growt, and obtaining all neessary state and federal permits under urrent sedules. Canges in tese or oter fators ould impat PEF s base expansion plan. PEF s Base Expansion Plan projets te need for additioinal units wit proposed in-servie dates during te ten-year period from 29 troug 217. T ese units, togeter wit purases from Qualifying Failities (QF), Investor Owned Utilities, and Independent Power Produers inluding but not limited to Reliant/Oseola (June 26 - February 29), Mirant Sady Hills (April 27 - April 224), Soutern Company (June 21 - May 216), as well as two undesignated purases in 213 and 215, elp te I EF system meet te growing energy requirements of its ustomer base. Te apaity needs identified in tis plan may be impated by PEF s ability to extend or replae existing purase power ogenerator and QF ontrats and to seure te new renewable purased power resoures in teir respetive projeted timeframes. Status reports and speifiations for te planned new generation failities are inluded in Sedule 9. Te new transmission lines assoiated wit te Bartow Repowering Projet as well as te Levy County nulear units are sown in Sedule 1. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-2

51 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA TOTAL CAPACITY RESOWRCES OF POWER PLANTS AND PlURCHASED POWER CONTRACTS AS OF DIlCEZMBER PLANTS Fesril Strystal Riva Andote Bartow Suw-ee Total Fossil St- River l l*9lz m 2J (-a l m 65 Plvdurd Power Qualiype Faility ontraas Investa Owaed UtiWies Independent PowaProduas TOTAL CAPACITY RESOURCES Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-3

52 -,A 1:ABLE 3.2 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA QUALIFYING FACUXrY GENERATION CONTRACTS AS OF DECEMBER 3:1,28 A F - - A - - Firar Capaity DadCCOUDtY Rtsau R.eovry 43 ElDOrado Lake ogen 11 Lake ComW Resmre R.werv 12.8 LFC Jfftrsw I 8.5 LFC Madison 8.5 Mutbrry 79.2 I 19 Paso County Rsou 23 pinefbsollnty 4 Pinelbs ollnty 14.8 Roysttr TOTAL A. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-4

53 PR(K;RESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE7 1 FORECAST OF CAPACKY, DEMAND AND SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE YEAR 29. (2) ) TOTAL' d INSTALLED CAPACITY IMPORT Mw Mw CAPACITY 9,91 1,467 (4) FlRM CAPACITY EXPORT Mw QF Mw 173 (a) TOTAL CAPACITY AVAILABLE Mw -- 11,542 kr TIME OF SUMMERPEAK SYSTEM FIRM SUMMERPEAK DEMAND Mw 9,54 RESERVE MARGIN BEFORE MNTEMNCE MW %OFPEAK 2,2 21% SCHEDULED MNTEMNCE Mw RESERVE 4ARGIN AFTERMNTEMNE Mw %OFPEAK 2,2 21% 21 9,849 1, ,61 9,49 2,12 22% 2,12 22% 211 9,849 1, ,694 9,578 2,116 22% 2,116 22% 212 9, ,139 9,885 u54 23% 22% 13% 213 9, ,94 1,75 LO2 2% 2,OD 2% ,155 1,757 1,332 1, ILOSa 1U33 lop63 1,275 2,23 2% 2,38 2% 2,23 2% LO58 2% , , ,68 13, ,672 2,13 2P 3,28 28% 2,13 2% 3,28 28%,A ,191 1, ,7 1,864 L836 26% 2,836 26%,n,n,n,A,n r- /- Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-5

54 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE72 FORECAST OF CAPACTN, DEMAND AND SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE ATTIMEOF WINTERPEAK (2) TOTAL' (3) FlRd (4) FJRM (a) TOTAL (8) (9) SYSTEM FIRM INSTALLED CAPACITY CAPACITY CMAm WINTERPEAK RESERVE MARGIN SCHEDULED RESERVE MARGIN - YEAR 2w9 CAPACITY Mw 137 WORT Mw EXPORT Mw QF 173 AVAILABU! Mw 12,147 DEMAND BEFOREMAINTENANCE fw - Mw %OFPEAK 9,987 2,161 22% MAINTENANCE Mw AFTERMAINTENANCE Mw %OFPEAK 2,161 22% , ,767 1,22 2,745 27% 2,745 27% l@3 1, ,892 1,133 2,758 27% 2,758 27% ,212 1, ,11 1,472 2,631 25% 2,637 25% ,212 2, ,458 ions 2,73 25% 2,73 25% ,212 1, ,216 1,613 La3 25% 2,a3 25% ,417 1, , % 2,586 24% ,476 1, ,481 ll,m7 2,414 22% 2,414 22% ,345 1, , ,641 23% 2,641 23% ,465 1, ,58 11, % 3,54 31%,n Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-6

55 PRG:RESS ENERGY FLOIRIDA SCHEDULE8 PLANNED AND PROWECTIVE GPVERATINO FACILITY ADDITIONS AND CHANGES ASOFJAMJARY 1,29THRaUOHDEC!iMBER3I.W11 Q LNIT LOCATION LINIT NELm START SRVICI RETlREMEKT NAMEPLATE SUMMER rlmu.we Ix&PBLBLI. CRYSTAL W%R 5 ST A BARTOW 1-3 ST Rp BARTOW 4 CC NG DFO V CRYSTAL RIVER 3 NP A CRYSTAL RIVER 5 ST D CRYSTAL 4 ST A CRYSTAL RIVER 4 ST D CRYSTAL W'ER 3 NP A SUWANNEERIVER 1-3 ST SUwANNEEm P4 CT P SUWANNEERICER P5 CT P RIO PIN- PI CT TURNER PPZ CT AVON PARK PLP2 CT HICGINS PLP4 CT LEVY 1 NP UC P LEVY 2 NT Nv P Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-7

56 .-,A.-.- 'e PROGRESS ENERGY IFLQDA SCHEDULE 9) STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED GENERATING FACILITIES AS OF JANUARY '1,29.- 1, OOMBINEDCYCLE.n,n,n,n.I ertifiation status: Status wit Federal Agenies: Projeted Unit Perfaruane Data a Planned Outage Fator(PF): b. Fored Outage Fator (FOR:.EquivalentAvsirsbitityFator(EAF): dresuttiagcapaityfator(%) e. Avaage Net Operating Herd:Rate (AN(3HR): Fkqeted Unit Finarriat Data a Book Life (Years): b. Totd Instatled year Vltw): - Diret onstrutiw ost (s.ikw): dafudcamomt~w): e. Esabon - : I Fixed o&lul (SkW-yr)): gva#ii+bko&m@i#): KFatox NATLJR4L GAS DISTILLATE FUEL OIL DRY LOW NOx COMBUSTION wit SELECTIVE CATALYTIC REDUCTION OOOLING WATER 1,348 ACRES UNDER CONSTRUCTION NIA DJ PROCESS 69 '?A 4.6 % 88.8 % 652 % 7,19 BTU/kw (INCREENTAL COST) NO CALCULATION Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-8

57 .- -.-,A SCHEDULE 9 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PR.OPOSED GENERATING FACILITIES AS OF JANUARY 1,29 r-.a..-.n.n n. P- - A n - m (1) P&mtNameandUxitNmbe~ (2) apaity aslmrmer: b. Winter: (3) TeaoBogyType: (4) Antiipated Coasimtion Timing a Fidd umstnxtion start date: b. Cunuterislibstrvie date: (6) AkPofrtion C4mtl-d smew (7) CwbgMetod: (S) TotalSiteAna: (9) ConstrutionStatus: (lo) -status: (1 1) Status wit Federal Agenies: (12) Projeted Unit Pdmmane Data a Planned Outage Fator@OF): b. Fored Outage Fator :. Equkatept AvaWdity Fator : d Resuftiag apaity Fator('%): e. Avaage Net Operating Heat Rate (ANOEIR): (13) Projeted Ud Finaadal Data a Book Life (Years): b. Total Installed Cost (Isservie year VkW):. Dket Constrution ost (vlrw): d AFUDC Amormt WW): e- Esalalk WW): f. Fixed O&M (WkW-yr): g. V a e K Fator: O&M &"W): suuauaee P C~MBUSTION TURBINE 112 6/214 (EXPECTED) ErATUkU GAS CIISTILLATE FUEL OIL UNKNOWN LNKNOWN 5% ACRES PLANNED PLANNED PLANNED 4. % 2.1 Yo 94.1 % 7.6 % 1,76 BTUkW NO CALCULATION r" P A Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-9

58 ,n A SCHEDULE SI STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED GENERATING FACILITIES AS OF JANUARY 1,29, F-,.A.n 'C n r (1) PLant Name md Unit Numb~ apaity astmtraer: b. Wmttr: (3) TebaologyType: (4) Anlkipated Construtiw T a g a Fidd onstnrtion stzd date: b. Colnmd Lsavie date: sarurn PS COMBUSTION TURBINE 1/213 e A n n (5) Fuel apdntaryfuel: b. Memate fi& (6) Air Pofkrtion Control Strategy (7) CooiingMetod: (8) TotalSiteArea: (9) ConstnrtiOnstatUs: (1) asatkmststus: (1 1) Status wit Fedd Agenies: (12) ProjetedUnit Pafoimane Data a Pbnned Outage b. Fored Outage Fator (FOF):. Equivalent Avaaabaity Fator : d Redling CapaitYFator(%): e. AvaageNet Operating Heat Rate (ANOIIR): NATURAL GAS C~ISTILLATE FUEL OIL LIMCNOWN UNKNOWN PLANNED PLANNED PLANNED 5% ACRES 4. % 2.1 O 94.1 Yo 8. H 1,83 BTUkW (13) Projeted Unit FinsnCiat Data aklae(years): 25 b. Total Instatled year WkW): Lket Constnmrion Cost o: dae.'udcamount(sjkw): 6.84 e. Esaktion (SJkW): 1527 f. Fixed 8iM (9kW-y~): 322 g. VadsMt O&M (VMWn): 795 K Fator: 2-1 CALCULATION Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-1

59 PROGRESSENERGY IFLOIUDA SCHEDULE 9 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED GENERATING FACILITIES AS OF JANUARY 11,29 Pkmt Name and Unit Nm&e apasursiaa: b. Wintr: Tebaology Type: AntiipatedConstnrtionTang a. Fidd omlxudm start date: b. Cornmerisl ksewie date: Fud ap&nqfuek b. Manate fiid Airpolion ontros Stndew. ooling Metod: Total Site b- o n s ~ ostatus: n C m Status: Status wit Federal Agenies: Projeted Unit Pafommne Data a F &rmed Outage Fatm(PF): b. Fored Outage Fator (FOF):. Equivalmt AvaibbMy Fator (EAF): d. Resulting Capaity Fator@): e. Average Net Operating Heat Rate (ANCWR): Projeted Unit Fiaaniat Data abooklife(years): b. Total Installed year MkW):. Diret onstnrtion Cost (r;nw): d.andcanmnt(vkw): e. f. Fixed gvadameo&misjmw): KFator: Ley CeumtyUnitNa 1 1,92 1,12 ADVANCED LIGHT WATERNUCLEAR URANNM - N/A lnolo 6/216 (EXPECTED) COOLING TOWER PLANNED PLANNED PLANNED 3,1 ACRES 5.1 % 3. % 92. Yo 91 Yo 9,71 BTUkW NO CALCULATION Progress Energy Florida, In

60 SCHEDULE 9' STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED GENERATING FACILITIES AS OF JANUARY 11,29 Flmt Name and Uuit Nder: apsity asumwner b. Winter: TeodogyType: tkipated ConstnrtiOn Tkkg a Fidd onstnttion start date: b. CommadatiPsavie date: Fuel apdmsryfu& b. Aitemate fek Ak Pollution odrot Stratew- ooliag Metod: Total Site Constrution status: (1) CatiEiationStatUs: (1 1) Status wit Federal Agenies: (12) Projeted Unit Pafmane Data a PknaedOutage Fator(PF): b. Fored Outage Fator IFOF):. Equivalent Av- d Resutting CapadtyFator(%): e. Average Net Operatiag Heat Rate (ANDHR): (13) Projeted Unit Finsndat Data a Book Life (Years): b. Total Installed year VkW): Dirtt onstlutim ost o: daful?~ount~w-j e. Esaktion (WkW): E Fixed OdtM ($/kw-yr): g Variable O&M (SIMW): KFatm LeryC.pntyUnitNm.2 1,92 1,lM ADVANCED LIGHT WATERNUCLEAR URANIUM - NfA lfzoll (EXPECTED) COOLING TOWER PLANNED PLANNED PLANNED 3,1 ACRES NO CALCULATION Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-12

61 .-.- /- PROGRE!3S ENICRGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OI'PROPOSED DIREICTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES BARTOW REPOWERING (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMINATION: (2) NUMBER OF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTH: (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING: (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL DM3STMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS (9) PARTICPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: n -. Progress Energy Florida, In A

62 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRE,CTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES BARTOW REPOWERING (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMINATION: (2) NUMBEROF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY (4) LINELENGTH: (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS: (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-14

63 .- PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA C r- SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES (1) POINT OF ORIGlN AND TKRMINATION: BARTOW REPOWERING r e.n,n (2) NUMBEXOFLINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTEI: (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT: 11.3 des :!3 kv :K2oOS!i7,7, (8) SUBSTATIONS (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: IUlA IWA Tepojetdapitdestioatmayvay dnmg oostroba m ftite Bartow Rqwwai~g Projet e e Progress Energy Florida, In e

64 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRE.CTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES BARTOW REPOWERING (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND 'KRMNATION: (2) NUMBEROFLINES: :! (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTH: (5) VOLTAGE.4 d es :!3 kv (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS: (9) PARTICIPATION WlTH OTHER UTILITES: Fifty-Fkrt Skeet SI&& ]VIA - Addi Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-16

65 PROGEZSS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES ]LEVY m 1 &.z (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TKRMlNATION: (2) NUMBER OF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTH: (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMINGr (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL. INVESTMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS: (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-17

66 PROGRE3S ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRELCIZY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINKS 1m-Y UNITS 1 &:2 (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMENATION: (2) NUMBER OF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTH: (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING :1 &w :lo&!io kv 6l216 lor: ligtdf-way (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS: (9) PARTICIPATION WlTH OTHER UTILITES:!E3,, NY IUIA Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-18

67 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMINATION: (2) NUMBER OF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENGTH; (5) VOLTAGE: (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING: (7) ANTICIPATED CAFlTAL ENVESTMENT: (8) SUBSTATIONS: (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES:.n.-,n,n.- Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-19

68 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS RESORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMINATION: tkysta Riva - BrooS~idg~ Snbsmioa (2) NUMBER OF LINES. 1 (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: IL.riE(ogaDdmwtraasliuioaIntrigts-of-way (4) LINELENGll-k 35 mj, (5) VOLTAGE: ;!3kV (9 ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING: (7) ANTICIPATED CAFJITAL INVESTMENT: 1;7,, (8) SUBSTATIONS: MA (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: IWA.n.-, A.n. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-2

69 PROGRESS ENERGY FLORlDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AM) SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIREICILY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TERMINATION: 13rooloidge - Brooksvlle West S~&&OII (2) NUMBER OF LINES: (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: (4) LINELENG'M (5) VOLTAGE: 23 kv (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCI'ION TIMING: (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT:!t8,, (8) SUBSTATIONS: IWA (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES IWA Progress Energy Florida, In

70 PROGRESS ENERGY FL.ORIDA SCHEDULE 1 STATUS REPORT AND SPECIFICATIONS OF PROPOSED DIREC"LY ASSOCIATED TRANSMISSION LINES (1) POINT OF ORIGIN AND TFJWNATION: I<&CCII - Lake T q ~ Snbstation m (2) NUMBER OF LINES: 11 (3) RIGHT-OF-WAY: I~dlrwtrm~Inerigts- -way (4) LINELENGTH: 45 ldes (5) VOLTAGE: :!3 kv (6) ANTICIPATED CONSTRUCTION TIMING: (7) ANTICIPATED CAPITAL INVESTMENT:!E1,, (8) SUBSTATIONS: IWA (9) PARTICIPATION WITH OTHER UTILITIES: IWA Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-22

71 ,r., -.,,.,...,n.n INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNIN(G OVERVIEW PEF employs an Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) proess to determine te most ost-effetive mix of supply- and demand-side alternati ves tat will reliably satisfy our ustomers' future demand and energy needs. PEF's IRP proess inorporates state-of-te-art omputer models used to evaluate a wide range of future generation alternatives and ost-effetive onservation and dispatable demand-side management programs on a onsistent and integrated basis. An overview of PEF's IRP Proess is sown in Figure 3.1. Te proess begins wit te development of various foreasts, inluding demand and energy, fuel pries, and eonomi assumptions. Future supply- and demand-side resoure alternatives are identified and extensive ost and operating data are olleted to enable tese to be modeled in detail. Tese alternatives are optimized togeter to determine te most ost-effetive plan for PEF to pursue over te next ten (1) years to meet te ompany's reliability riteria. Te resulting ten-year plan, te Integrated Optimal Plan, is ten tested under different relevant sensitivity senarios to identify varianes, if any, wi would warrant reonsideration of any of te base plan assumptions. If te plan is judged robust and works witin te orporate framework, it evolves as te Base Expansion Plan. Tis proess is disussed in more detail in te following setion titled "Te Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) Proess". Te Integrated Resoure Plan provides PEF wit substantial guidane in assessing and optimizing te Company's overall resoure mix on bot te supply sidle and te demand side. Wen a deision supporting a signifiant resoure ommitment is being developed (e.g. plant onstrution, power purase, DSM program implementation), te Company will move forward wit diretional guidane from te IRP and delve mu M 'er into te speifi levels of examination required. Tis more detailed assessment will typially address very speifi tenial requirements and ost estimates, detailed orporate finanial onsid.erations, and te most urrent dynamis of te business and regulatory environments. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-23

72 FIGURE 3.1 Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) Proess Overview Foreasts and Assumptions Supply-side Sreening STRATEGIST.- r-. Best Supply-side Resoures Base Opt imalzppl y -Side Plan Demand-Side Sreening STRATEGIST I - Sensitivity Analysis Base Expansion Plan Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-24

73 THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING (IRP) PROCESS Foreasts and Assumptions Te evaluation of possible supply- and demand-side alternatives, and development of te optimal plan, is an integral part of te IRP proess. Tese steps togeter omprise te integration proess tat begins wit te development of foreasts and olletion of input data. Base foreasts tat reflet PEF's view of te most likely future senarios are developed, along wit ig and low foreasts tat reflet alternative future senarios. Computer models used in te proess are brougt up-to-date to reflet tis data, along wit te latest operating parameters and maintenane sedules for PEF's existing generating units. Tis establises a onsistent starting point for all furter analysis. - - Reliability Criteria Utilities require a margin of generating apaity above te firm demands of teir ustomers in order to provide reliable servie. Periodi seduled outages are required to perform maintenane and inspetions of generating plant equipment and to refuel nulear plants. At any given time during te year, some apaity may be out of servie due to unantiipated equipment failures resulting in fored outages of generation units. Adequate reserve apaity must be available to aommodate tese outages and to ompensate for iger tan projeted peak demand due to foreast unertainty and abnormal weater. In addition, some apaity must be available for operating reserves to maintain te balane between supply and dernand on a moment-to-moment basis.," _-,I PEF plans its resoures in a manner onsistent wit utility industry planning praties, and employs bot deterministi and probabilisti reliability riteria in te resoure planning proess. A Reserve Margin riterion is used as a deterministi measure of PEF's ability to meet its foreasted seasonal peak load wit firm apaity. PEF plans its resoures to satisfl a twenty (2) perent Reserve Margin riterion. 1- Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) is a probabilisti riterion tat measures te probability tat a ompany will be unable to meet its load trougout te year. Wile Reserve Margin onsiders te peak load and amount of installed resoures, LOLP takes into aount generating unit sizes, apaity mix, maintenane seduling, unit availabilities, and apaity assistane available from 1- * Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-25

74 'C.- oter utilities. A standard probabilisti reliability tresold ommonly used in te eletri utility industry, and te riterion employed by PEF, is a maximum of one (1) day in ten (1) years loss of load probability..n _- PEF as based its resoure planning on te use of dual reliability riteria sine te early 199s, a pratie tat as been aepted by te FPSC. PEF's resoure portfolio is designed to satisfy te twenty (2) perent Reserve Margin requirement and probabilisti analyses are periodially onduted to ensure tat te one (1) day in ten (1) years L'OLP riterion is also satisfied. By using bot te Reserve Margin and LOLP planning riteria, PEF's resoure portfolio is designed to ave suffiient apaity available to meet ustomer peak demand, and to provide reliable generation servie under expeted load onditions..pef as found tat resoure additions are typially triggered to meet te twenty (2) perent Reserve Margin tresolds before LOLP beomes a fator. Supply-Side Sreening Potential supply-side resoures are sreened to determine tose tat are te most ost-effetive. Data used for te sreening analysis is ompiled fi-on1 various industry soures and PEF's experienes. Te wide range of resoure options is pre-sreened to set aside tose tat do not warrant a detailed ost-effetiveness analys,is. Typial sreening riteria are osts, fuel soure, tenology maturity, environmental parameters, and overalll resoure feasibility. I" ICI Eonomi evaluation of generation alternatives is performed using te Strategist@ optimization program. Tis optimization tool evaluates revenue requirements for speifi resoure plans generated from multiple ombinations of future resoure additions tat meet system reliability riteria and oter system onstraints. All resoure plans are ten ranked by system revenue requirements. Demand-Side Sreening Like supply-side resoures, data for large inumbers of potential demand-side resoures are also olleted. Tese resoures are pre-sreened to eliminate tose alternatives tat are still in resear and development, addressed by oter regulations (e.g. building ode), or not appliable to PEF's Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-26

75 I I ustomers. Strategist@ is updated wit ost data and lo'ad impat parameters for ea potential DSM measure to be evaluated. I*,*,* Te Base Optimal Supply-side Plan is used to establis avoidable units for sreening future demand-side resoures. Ea future demand-side alternative is individually tested in tis plan over te ten-year planning orizon to determine te benefit or detriment tat te addition of tis demandside resoure provides to te overall system. Strategist@ alulates te benefits and osts for ea demand-side measure evaluated and reports te appropriate ratios for te Rate Impat Measure (RIM), te Total Resoure Cost Test (TRC)., and te Partiipant Test. Demand-side programs tat pass te RIM test are ten bundled togeter to reate demand-side portfolios. Tese portfolios ontain te appropriate DSM options and make te optimization solvable wit te Strategist@ model. #- /- Resoure Integration and te Integrated Optimal Plan Te ost-effetive generation alternatives and te demand-side portfolios developed in te sreening proess an ten be optimized togeter to formulate integrated optimal plans. Te optimization program onsiders all possible future ombinations of supply- and demand-side alternatives tat meet te ompany's reliability riteria in ea year of te ten-year study period and reports tose tat provide bot flexibility and low revenue requirements (rates) for PEF's ratepayers. #- - /- Developing te Base Expansion Plan Te integrated optimized plan tat provides te lowest revenue requirements may ten be furter tested using sensitivity analysis. Te eonomis of te plain may be evaluated under ig and low foreast senarios for fuel, load and finanial assumptions, or any oter sensitivities wi te planner deems relevant. From te sensitivity assessment, te plan tat is identified as aieving te best balane of flexibility and ost is ten rieviewed witiin te orporate framework to determine ow te plan potentially impats or is impated by many oter fators. If te plan is judged robust under tis review, it would ten be onsidered te Base Expansion Plan.," 14 Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-27

76 .-,A,e KEY CORPORATE FORECASTS Load Foreast Te assumptions and metodology used to develop te base ase load and energy foreast is desribed in Capter 2 of tis TYSP. Fuel Foreast Te base ase fuel prie foreast was developed using sort-term and long-term spot market prie projetions from industry-reognized soures. Coal pries are expeted to be relatively stable mont to mont; owever, oil and natural gas pries are expeted to be more volatile on a day-today and mont-to-mont basis. C In te sort term, te base ost for oal is based on te existing ontrats and spot market oal pries and transportation arrangements between PEF and its various suppliers. For te longer term, te pries are based on spot market foreasts refletive of expeted market onditions. Oil and natural gas pries are estimated based on urrent and expeted ontrats and spot purase arrangements as well as near-term and long-term market foreasts. Oil and natural gas ommodity pries are driven primarily by open market fores of supply and demand. Natural gas firm transportation ost is determined primarily by pipeline tariff rates; and tends to ange less frequently tan ommodity pries. #-,.- Finanial Foreast Te key finanial assumptions used in PEF's most reent planning studies were 45 perent debt and 55 perent equity apital struture, projeted debt ost of 7.3 perent, and an equity return of perent. Tese assumptions resulted in a weigted average ost of apital of 9.75 perent and an after-tax disount rate of 8.5 perent. _- d-.- TEN-YEAR SITE PLAN (TYSP) RESOURCE ADDITIONS In tis TYSP, PEF's supply-side resoures inlude te relpowering of te P.L. Bartow Plant wit F-Class ombined yle tenology wit an expeted in-servie date of June 29. Te planned units in tis TYSP inlude te installation of ombustion turbine tenology at te Suwannee River Plant as well as two (2) nulear units on a greenfield site in Levy County. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-28

77 ..-, In 28, te FPSC approved PEF s petition for a Determination of Need for te two (2) nulear units in Levy County. Te Company seleted Levy Units 1 and 2 for projeted ommerial servie in 216 and 217, respetively, to meet its generation apaity needs in te period 216 to 219 and beyond after arefully evaluating planning options troug te Company s on-going Integrated Resoure Planning (IRP) proess outlined erein. Te nulear units were identified as te most ost-effetive option to meet te need, taking into aount te need to improve fuel diversity, redue Florida s dependene on fuel oil and natural gas, redue urrent and potential future air emission ompliane osts, and ontribute to te long-term stability of te eletri grid. Sine nulear units involve very long liensing and onstrution lead times, PEF plans to ontinue wit te design and development of te infrastruture and transmission requirements, negotiations for prourement and onstrution ontrats (and permitting and liensing to support te urrent planned in-servie dates. However anges in fators su as, te projeted load growt and te timeline to obtain all te neessary state aind federal permits, ould impat PEF s base expansion plan. Troug its ongoing planning proess, PEF will ontinue to evaluate te timetables for all projeted resoure additions and assess alternatives for te future onsidering, among oter tings, projeted load growt, fuel pries, urrent lead times in te onstrution marketplae, projet development timelines for new fuels, and tenologies, and environmental ompliane onsiderations. Te Company will ontinue to examine tle merits of new generation alternatives and adjust its resoure plans aordingly to ensure optimal seletion of resoure additions based on te best information available. RENEWABLE ENERGY PEF ontinues to make purases from te following failities listed by fuel type: Muniipal Solid Waste Failities: Lake County Resoure Reovery (12.8 MW) Metro-Dade County Resoure Reovery (43 MW) Paso County Resoure Reovery (23 MW) Pinellas County Resoure Reovery (54.8 MW) Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-29

78 Waste Heat from Exotermi Proesses: PCS Pospate (As Available) Waste Wood, Tires, and Landfill Gas: Ridge Generating Station (39.6 MW] SI Group Energy (5 MW) (As-Available) Potovoltais Various ustomer and PEF owned installations (approximately 93 kw) P,n +- In addition, PEF as entered into ontrats wit Biomass Energy Group (116 MW), BG&E (15 MW), Vision Power (4 MW) and Horizon Energy (6 MW). Te Biomass Energy Group and te Vision Power failities will utilize an energy rop, tie BG&E units will fire gas from wood produts and Horizon Energy will gasify mimiipal solid,waste. r-,*- PEF ontinues to seek out renewable suppliers tat an provide reliable apaity and energy at eonomi rates. In July 27, PEF issued a Request for Renewables (RFR) soliiting proposals for renewable energy projets. PEF s RFR ontinues to reeive interest and to date as logged over 88 responses. Disussions wit potential suppliers are ongoing. PEF will ontinue to submit renewable standard offer ontrats in ompliane wit FPSC rules. In r-,a >- PLAN CONSIDERATIONS Load Foreast In general, iger-tan-projeted load growt would sifl: te need for new apaity to an earlier year and lower-tan-projeted load growtl would delay te need for new resoures. PEF s TYSP inludes in te sort-term te Bartow Repowering Projet urrently under onstrution and additions of ombustion turbine and nulear units in te long-term. Te Company s resoure plan provides te flexibility to sift ertain resoures to earlier or later in-servie dates sould a signifiant ange in projeted ustomer demand1 begin to materialize. /- Fuel Foreast PEF s urrent TYSP inludes new natural gas fueled resoures in 29, 214, and 215. Te plan also inludes uprates to te Crystal River nulear unit No. 3 in 29 and 21 1, and new 1- Progress Energy Florida, In

79 nulear units in 216 and 217. Higer gas pries would improve te eonomis for non gasfueled resoures and lower gas pries would benefit gas-fueled resoures. Unertainty over future environmental regulation, partiularlly as it relates to arbon, as well as fuel seurity and reliability onsiderations, favors pursuit of te nulear option. r- - Finanial Foreast PEF s urrent TYSP inludes ombustion turbines in 214. and 215 wit nulear unit additions in 216 and 217. Lower ost of apital and esalation rates would favor options wit longer onstrution lead times and iger apital osts su as te nulear addition. However, PEF does not expet tese assumptions to go mu lower tan te urrent base ase foreast and nulear generation is not projeted to be feasible before 216. PEF will ontinue to assess te eonomis of future generation alternatives inluding onsideration of te: unertainties in planning assumptions. r- 4-,n TRANSMISSION PLANNING PEF s transmission planning assessment praties are developed to test te ability of te planned system to meet te reliability riteria as oullined in te FERC Form 715 filing, and to assure te system meets PEF, Florida Reliability Coordinating Counil, In. (FRCC), and NERC riteria. Tis involves te use of load flow and transient stability ]programs to model various ontingeny situations tat may our, and determining if te system response meets te reliability riteria. In general, tis involves running simulations for te loss of any single line, generator, or transformer. PEF normally runs tis analysis for system peak and off-peak load levels for possible ontingenies, and for bot summer and winter. Additional studies are performed to determine te system response to redible, but less probable riteria. Tese studies inlude te loss of multiple generators or lines, ombinations of ea, and some load loss is permissible under tese more severe disturbanes. Tese redible, but less probable senarios are also evaluated at various load levels, sine some of te morle severe situations our at average or minimum load onditions. In partiular, ritial fault learing times are typially te sortest (most severe) at minimum load onditions, wit just a few large base load units supplying te system needs. 1-. Progress Energy Florida, In /-

80 As noted in te PEF reliability riteria, some remedial ations are allowed to redue system loadings, in partiular, setionalizing is allowed to redue: loading on lower voltage lines for bulk system ontingenies, but te risk to load on te setionalized system must be reasonable (it would not be onsidered prudent to operade for long periods wit a setionalized system). In addition, te number of remedial ation steps and te overall omplexity of te seme are evaluated to determine overall aeptability. Presently, PEF uses te following referene douments to alulate Available Transfer Capability (ATC) for required transmission pat postings on te Florida Open Aess Same- Time Information System (OASIS): FRCC: FRCC ATC Calulation and Coordination Proedures, April 4, 26, wi an be found on te FRCC s website: ttps://www. f?.om/atc WG/Sarel%2Doumenlts/FRCC%2OATC%2OCoordinatio n%2proedures.pdf NERC: Transmission Transfer Capability, May 1, 1995, NERC: Available Transfer Capability - Definitions and Determination, July 3, PEF uses te FRCC Capaity Benefit Margin (CBM) metodology to assess its CBM needs. Tis metodology is summarized as follows: FRCC Transmission Providers make an assessmemt of te CBM needed on teir respetive systems by using eiter deterministi or ]probabilisti generation reliability analysis. Te appropriate amount of transmission interfae apability is ten reserved for CBM on a per interfae basis, taking into aount te amount of generation available on oter interonneted systems, te respletive load peaking diversities of tose systems, and Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM). Operating reserves may be inluded if appropriate in TRM and subsequently subtrated from te CBM if needed. Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-32

81 .e PEF urrently as zero CBM reserved on ea of its interfaes (posted pats). PEF's CBM on ea pat is urrently establised troug i:e transmission provider funtions witin PEF using deterministi and probabilisti generation reliability analysis. PI,C. Currently, PEF proposes several bulk transmission additions tat must be ertified under eiter te Florida Transmission Line Siting At (TLSA) or te: Power Plant Siting At (PPSA). PEF proposed bulk transmission line additions are summarized in te following Table 3.3. PEF as listed only te larger transmission projets. Tese projets may ange depending upon te outome of PEF's final orridor and speifi route seletion proess. TABLE 33 PROGRE!W ENERGY FJAIRIDA LIST OF PROPOSED BULK TRANSMISSXON LINE ADDITIONS TERMINALS NO4INAL VOLTAGE HINE;SENERGY GIFFORD EAST - Ckd 1?EAST -Ckd 2?EAST -Ciruit3 STREET jm STREET ls STREET IM STREET IRT MEADE LAKE WALES #2 LAKE WALES #2 LAKE WALES #1 LNTON (OUC) WFLASOUTH?STAL. RIVER mus #1 XrRUS #2 :OOKRIDGE 'KSVIUE WEST KETARPON Progress Energy Florida, In. 3-33

82 CHAPTER 4 e EiVVlRONMENTAL AND LAND LJSE INFORMA TION -* r C I.- * #- *-..- IC F - F ~3 CV Progress Energy.-. r

83 CHAPTER 4 ENVIRONMENTAL ZND LAND USE INFORMATION PREFERRED SITES PEF s base expansion plan inludes te repowering of t e existing P.L. Bartow Plant in Pinellas County wit ombined yle tenology, te potential installation of ombustion turbine tenology at te Suwannee River Plant, and te installation of two (2) nulear power units at te Levy County greenfield site. Wile tese sites are suitable for new generation, PEF ontinues to evaluate oter available options for future supply alternatives. PEF is urrently undergoing onstrution of te P.L. Bartow Plant repowering projet, wi is seduled to begin ommerial operation in June 29. Te planned ombustion turbine tenology installation at te Suwannee River Plant wit possible operation years of 214 and 215 as well as installation of te Levy County nulear power units wit operation planned to begin in 216 and 217 are being evaluated. Appropriate permitting requirements for PEF s preferred sites are disussed in te following site desriptj ons. P.L. BARTOW PLANT - PINELLAS COUNTY As mentioned above, PEF is in te proess of repowering te existing P.L. Bartow Plant wit natural gas-fired 4-on- 1 ombined yle tenology, wi is seduled to begin ommerial operation in June 29. Te P.L. Bartow Plant site (see Figure 4.1) onsists of 1,348 ares in Pinellas County, on te west sore of Tampa Bay. Te site is loated on Weedon Island, just nort of downtown Saint Petersburg. An adjaent barge fuel oil off-loading failir, a natural gas supply fkom te Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) pipeline, and a proposed Gulfstream natural gas pipeline provide te neessary fuel. Te existing site onsists (of tree (3) bloilers, and four (4) ombustion turbine peaking units. Te repowered site will onsist of a 4-on-1 ombined yle unit and te four (4) ombustion turbine peaking units. Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-1

84 FIGURE 4.1.a P.L. Bartow Plant (Pinellas County) I n /-. Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-2

85 .,n /- FIGURE 4.1.b P.L. Bartow Plant (Pinellas County) - Plant Layout. In addition to tis repowered unit ombusting lean fuels, ontrols will also be utilized to minimize air emissions. Tese ontrols inlude dry low NO, (DLN) burners, water injetion, and seletive atalyti redution (SCR) systems. Tis prlojet will ave: a positive impat on te surrounding air quality..- - Te repowered site will utilize existing water intake and disarge failities. It will also use te existing water supply and ground water disarge treatment system. Tis repowered site as been designed and will operate su tat no net new impat on water quality and water use will result. Transmission modifiations will be required. to aommodate te repowering of tese steam units (see Capter 3). Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-3

86 SUWANNEE RIVER PLANT - SUWANNEE COUN'E PEF is onsidering te installation of ornbustion turbiine tenology at te Suwannee River Plant. Te resoure expansion plan predits ommerial operation start-up of summer 214 and 215 to meet te foreasted load. Te Suwannee River Plant site (see Figure 4.2) onsists of 596 ares in uninorporated nortwest Suwannee County, on te Suwannee River and approximately eleven (1 1) miles nortwest of Live Oak, FL. Tree (3) fuel oil boilers as well as tree (3) ombustion turbine peaking units make up te urrent generation at tis site. Fuel oil is transported in by rail ar and truk, wile pipeline natural gas is supplied by Soutern Natural Gas. If tis projet is ompleted, te site will no longer utilize te fuel oil boilers and it will ten onsist of five (5) ombustion turbines peaking units. Te installation of ombustion turbine tenology, ombustion of lean fuels, as well as use of urrent ombustion and ontrol tenology will ave a positive effet on te surrounding air quality. - P Appliable requirements related to water quality and water usage as a result of tis projet will be evaluated in more detail as tis projet moves forward. Combustion turbine tenology will ave no water disarge to te Suwannee River..- Wit te potential projet site loated on or near te existing Suwannee River Plant, loal land use and zoning requirements will be evaluated. In addition., noise, natural resoures, and wetland impats will be evaluated and mitigated for, as part of te site design and permitting proess. - I.-- /- Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-4

87 FI(GURE 4.2.a. Suwannee River Plant (Suwannee County) Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-5

88 .n,e,n /-,n FIGURE 4.2.b. Suwannee River Plant (Suwannee Colunty) -Plant Layout _ -.- -,A Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-6

89 ..-.- LEVY COUNTY NUCLEAR POWER PLANT - LEVY COUNTY PEF reently named a site in soutern Levy County as te preferred loation for onstrution of new generation. Te Company is planning te onstrution of two (2) new nulear units at tis plant site wit planned operation to begin in 216 and 217. Te Levy County site (see Figure 4.3) is alpproximately 3,1 ares and loated eigt (8) miles inland from te Gulf of Mexio and rougly ten (1) miles nort of te existing PEF Crystal River Energy Complex. Te site is about 2.5 miles from te Cross Florida Barge Canal, from wi te Levy units may draw teir makeup water to supply te on-site ooling.water system. Te Levy County Plant Units 1 and 2, togeter wit te neessary assoiated site failities, will oupy approximately ten (1) perent of te 3,1 are site and te remaining areage will be preserved as an exlusionary boundary around te developed plant site and a buffer preserve. PEF purased an additional 2,1 are trat ontiguous wit te soutern boundary of te Levy site tat seures aess to a water supply for te site from te Cross Florjda Barge Canal as well as transmission orridors from te plant site. Te property for many years ad been used for silviulture and was designated as Forestry/Rural Residential. Te surrounding area land use is predominantly vaant, ommerial forestry lands. Tis site was osen based on several onsiderations inluding availability of land and water resoures, aess to te eletri transmission, system, and environmental onsiderations. First, te Levy County site ad aess to an adequate water supply. Seond, te site is at a relatively ig elevation, wi provides additional protetion from winld damage and flooding. Tird, unlike a number of oter sites onsidered, te Levy site as more favorable geotenial qualities, wi are ritial to siting a nulear power plant. Fourt, te Levy site provides geograpial separation from oter eletrial generating failities. E:ven toug te Crystal River Energy Complex site as many favorable qualities, adding new nulear generating apaity to te Crystal River Energy Complex at tis time would result in a signifiant onentration of PEF s generating assets in one geograpial loation. Tis inreases te likeliood of a signifiant generation loss from a single event and a potential large sale impat on te PEF system. Te Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-7

90 Levy County loation also would assist in avoiding a potential loss from a single signifiant transmission system event tat migt result in a large-sale impat on te PEF system. PEF s assessment of te Levy County site addressed weter any treatened and endangered speies or areologial and ultural resoures would be adversely impated by te development of te site for nulear generation units and related failities. No signifiant issues were identified in PEF s evaluations of te property. Te proximity of te Levy County site to te PEF s existing Crystal River Unit 3 nulear plant provides opportunities for effiienies in sared support funtions. Te two (2) Levy units will be loated on a greenfield site were site and transmission infrastruture must be onstruted along wit te buildings neessary for te power units. Te site will inlude ooling towers, intake and disarge strutures, ontainmimt buildings, auxiliary buildings, turbine buildings, diesel generators, wareouses, related site work and infrastruture, inluding roads, transmission lines, and a transmission substation. Te Company submitted a Site Certifiation Appliation (SCA) to te Florida Department of Environmental Protetion (DEP) on June 2, 28 for te entire site, inluding plants and assoiated failities for te units. Site ertifiation earings were ompleted in Mar 29, and te Siting Board may at on te final ertifiation by te end of August 29. Nulear power is a lean soure of eletri power generation. Eletri power generation from nulear fuel produes no sulfur dioxide (SOZ), nitrogen oxide (NO,), green ouse gases (GHG), or oter emissions. Terefore, it will ave a positive effet on te surrounding air quality. Water disarged from nulear plants must meet federal Clean Water At requirements and state water-quality standards. Before operating, a nulear plant s liensing proess requires an environmental impat statement tat arelidly examines and resolves all potential impats to water quality from te operation of te plaint. Tese issues inlude onerns about te disarge of waste water and te impats on aquati life in ooling water used by te plant. Transmission modifiations will be required to aommodate te Levy County Nulear Power Plant. Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-8

91 n.n...c.e FUGURE 4.3.a. Levy County Nulear Power Plant (Levy County) A,e,e.-,e.-,A.-,e.. /- r- r /- Progress Energy Florida, In. 4-9