Group 6 Longyearbyen, Svalbard Norway Hosted by Gas Technology Centre NTNU - SINTEF

Transcription

1 2010 IEAGHG Should CCS be Mandatory in the Developed World and What are the Pros and Cons? 27 August 2010 Group 6 Longyearbyen, Svalbard Norway Hosted by Gas Technology Centre NTNU - SINTEF

2 This Question is Actually Composed of Three Smaller Questions Why CCS? Why Mandatory? Why Developed Countries? -By CCS we mean storing carbon from point source emitters -By mandatory we mean an international ti agreement where noncompliance results in sanctions -By developed d countries, we mean the Annex A countries

3 Why CCS? Pros: Potential advancements in CO 2 reducing technology and is readily deployable & cheaper than renewables Has to be done to achieve emissions reduction targets Potential momentum in hydrocarbon (HC) sector and most of the western countries along with China and India CCS can capitalize the expertise and extensive knowledge of the HC industries Can be used for EOR Cons: Supplanting other CO 2 reducing technologies (storage, smart grid)? Supports a fossil fuel energy even longer Who is liable? Energy losses will be higher - other uses of fossil fuels may be lost in the future due to inefficiencies inherent in CCS

4 19% CO 2 reduction must be 2 achieved by CCS

5 Economic Comparison Between CCS and Alternatives Solar PV Solar Termal Wind Advanced coal with CCS Natural gas CC with CCS

6 Why Developed Countries? Pros: Developed countries are responsible for the historical CO 2 emissions They are the largest producers [World Resources Institute] Developed countries can possibly afford the cost Cons: It can result in developed countries exporting CO 2 emissions to the developing ones Underdeveloped countries emissions may be ignored with this policy Discriminating i i approach

7 Developed Countries Responsible for Historical Emissions

8 Are Developed Countries Really Responsible? Others CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels by country (2007) IEA: CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion (2008)

9 Are Developed Countries Really Responsible? World average CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels per capita (2007) IEA: CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion (2008)

10 Why Mandatory? Pros: Making CCS mandatory will significantly reduce CO2 emissions to reduce the environmental and economic impacts of climate change If it is not made mandatory will it even happen? Cons: If implemented today some plants would be shut down prematurely Internationally unenforceable May be publicly unacceptable both nationally and locally Unintended consequences: mandatory policy may work in the opposite direction In the past international ti agreements have struggled to meet the necessary challenge through legislation

11 International Agreements Unenforceable Kyoto Protocol The US president signed the protocol but was not successful in acquiring i ratification from congress EU Commission CCS Directive Article 33 An example of mandatory policy that can be watered down EU members agreed to have all new combustion plants in excess of 300MW be capable of being retrofitted with capture technology by setting aside suitable space necessary for the equipments, if Storage site is available Transport technically and economically feasible Capture technology is technically and economically feasible

12 Local and National Public Acceptance Norway The first case a politician forced to resign over an environmental Issue Illinois FutureGen Project loss of economic benefit is not accepted by the local community - Economic issue is critical in making decision mandatory

13 Inefficient and Old Power Plants Would Become Obsolete 180 % 175 % 170 % 165 % 160 % 155 % 150 % 145 % 140 % 135 % η CO2 capture, high penalty CO2 capture, low penalty Without CO2 capture η power plant MJ LHV, CO2 capture 2 MJ LHV, no CO2 capture power plant, CO capture 130 % 125 % 120 % 115 % 110 % 105 % 100 % 95 % High efficiency coal fired power plant Low efficiency coal fired power plant From, Olav Bolland s powerpoint slides High efficiency gas fired power plant Low efficiency gas fired power plant

14 Unintended Consequences Implementing a mandatory policy on developed nations may have negative consequences Implementing a mandatory policy that increases costs may result in rebound effect Prohibition USA: An example where the 18 th Amendment resulted in high crime rates and eventually had to be rescinded 21 st Amendment

15 The Bottom Line CCS is crucial in combating global climate changes Developed countries may lead the technological innovation to generate electrical energy more equitably However, making CCS mandatory is all but impossible ibl to achieve and enforce

16 Should CCS be Mandatory in the Developed World? NO Therefore, each CO 2 emitter should utilize this technology in the most effective way possible, but this should be implemented on the basis of: - country by country -project byproject

17 Questions?

18 Supporters and Sponsors

19 Stabilization Wedges Socolow and Pacala updated Science 2004

20 Stabilization Wedges = 25Gt CO2 1. Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars 2. Replace 1400 Coal power plants with natural gas 3. Double the number of nuclear power plants 4. Outfit 800 coal power plants with CCS 5. 2 billion cars using ethanol 6. Increase solar power by 700x 7. Increase wind power by 25X

21 CCS Economics Power Generation Industrial Applications PC (SC & USC 1 ) Oxy-comb (Std & ITM 1 ) IGCC NGCC Blast furnace steel prod. US$/MWh US$/MWh US$/MWh US$/MWh US$/tonne steel Cement prod. US$/tonn e cement Natural gas processin g US$/GJ natural gas Fertilizer prod. US$/tonn e steel Without CCS 2 Levelised Cost of Production With CCS (FOAK) 3 With CCS (NOAK) 4 % increase over w/o 75-78% 55-64% 39% 43% 15-22% 36-48% 1% 3-4% CCS 5 FOAK Cost of CO 2 Avoided 6 ($/tonne CO 2 ) NOAK FOAK Cost of CO 2 Captured ($/tonne CO 2 ) NOAK

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23 CCS Economics Projections Philip Sharman says the cost reduction shown here is very optimistic for first generation and the carbon price for cost is also optimistic this makes the gap an even bigger challenge.

24 Heterogeneous sub-surface Regional studies have shown that there is an estimated storage capacity capable of storing enough CO 2 for (x years) These studies have not proven that there are enough injection ready sites that have: a cap, permeability, porosity. Therefore, how can we legislate a mandatory injection of (x tons) of CO 2 without knowing that even most emitters could comply UK J C d USA J 100 th l ti d it UK, Japan vs Canada, USA: Japan over 100x the population density of Canada and 10x USA

25 The Cost of no CCS Would be Higher? Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP and if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be even more (20%) It states, "our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes. Source: Stern report, 2006