Heat, Incumbency and Transformations - Overview

Transcription

1 Heat, Incumbency and Transformations - Overview Richard Lowes, University of Exeter

2 The problem UK has Climate Change act target for 2050 Beyond 2050, net zero emissions likely to be a requirement of the Paris agreement The Government believe we will need to take the step of enshrining the Paris goal of net zero emissions in UK law Andrea Leadsom (2016) Developing a secure and low-carbon energy system implies a fully decarbonised heat system by 2050 (DECC, 2013 and Committee on Climate Change, 2016) A transformation of the UK s heat system is therefore a requirement, incremental change is not enough

3 Numerous scenarios for low-carbon space and hot water heating

4 Other options? Bio-energy e.g. biomass and biogas Limited by resource availability, Gross and Slade (2010) suggested 4-10% of UK s total energy demand could come from bio Carbon savings for bio-energy heat can be very limited e.g. biomethane from crops Hydrogen distributed through gas network New (heat) kid on the block Would still need to use fossil gas (with CCS) Completely unknown costs Limited carbon savings according to previous research (Northern Gas Networks et al 2016) Bio-energy unlikely to provide significant proportion of UK s heat and hydrogen is unproven

5 Central to all low-carbon heat scenarios: Reducing heat demand Technically possible to eliminate space heat demand Even then still a need for hot water and cooking Increased electrification in less dense areas Heat pumps and direct electric Increased district heating in denser areas Efficiency benefits from centralisation of generation System benefits from storage and versatility of heat sources

6 Research focus A low-carbon heat system requires major technological and social change New appliances, changes to consumer practices, new businesses (and business models), system impacts Businesses and their associated products and services are a major part of the current heat system and are a part of the UK economy How could these existing businesses fit in to a low carbon future? How will these businesses behave in terms of politics, research and investment?

7 Project aims 1. Understand the existence of incumbency within the heat system and how incumbents may need to change 2. Investigate the current behaviour and practices of incumbents to see how companies have already responded to the potential for a lowcarbon future 3. Consider how incumbent companies could affect or be part of a transformation to a low-carbon future and the wider implications of this

8 Project phases Phase 1 Mapping of the UK heat regime Understanding the potential impacts of low-carbon transformation on incumbents Working paper on defining incumbency Second working paper on mapping the UK heat regime Phase 2 next steps Understanding the impact of incumbency on a future low-carbon heat system Primary data collection of around 60 interviews Third working paper on heat incumbency and transformations Phase 3 Impact

9 References The Committee on Climate Change (2016) Next Steps for UK heat policy. Carbon Connect, Pathways for Heat: Low Carbon Heat for Buildings, London. Available at: ect_pathwaysforheat_webcopy.pdf. DECC (2013) The Future of Heating : Meeting the challenge. London. Northern Gas Networks, Wales & West Utilities, Kiwa, Amec Foster Wheeler (2016) Leeds City Gate H21. Leeds. Slade, R., & Gross, R. (2010). The UK bio-energy resource base to 2050 : estimates, assumptions, and uncertainties Working Paper. Retrieved from C_TPA_The_UK_bioenergy_resource_base_to_2050.pdf

10 Breakout session Split into three groups Boardroom: Rob Sansom Ballroom: Tom Watson Ballroom: Frank Aaskov Three questions to consider What will the role of incumbents be in a low-carbon heat system, adaptation or failure? What are incumbent companies already doing in the lowcarbon heat sectors and what might they do in the future? What are new-entrants doing in the low-carbon heat sectors and what might they do in the future?