Low Carbon Policy in Controversy - after Fukushima & Durban

Transcription

1 Procedure to new integrated policy after Fukushima & Durban Low Carbon Policy in Controversy - after Fukushima & Durban Impacts of Fukushima & Durban Reduction potential: ti 12,, 5 What reduction target means? Fukushima Basic Law on GW Basic Energy Plan () Countermeasures to Diet with 9 new nuclear in Roadmap (interim) i in by METI Central Council of Envt. New Government policy :Less nuclear dependent society Enhance saving energy and renewable Distributed system for robust energy supply Reform electricity management Durban New full participation framework from 5, decided until 15 Japan: withdrawal from Kyoto legally-binded target after 13 China-Japan Climate Policy Dialogue 12 Beijing 6 January 12 Shuzo Nishioka Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Basic policy for Ene-Env by Cabinet Office 12 spring Integrated plan, concluded In summer Central Council of Envt. Low carbon plan aim to 5(8%) & 3, target options Global contribution Bi-lateral Offset Low carbon cities Smart community Council of Natural Res. & Energy Revise Basic Energy Demand side policy New energy with RE & less nuclear innovation policy Japan Atomic Energy Commission Cost validation of electricity sources New integrated policy of Energy and Envt. 2 hort Term: Kyoto Target can be cleared with a bit effort in following 2 years Before Fukushima: 25% reduction scenario (Dec.) Domestic reduction only Assumption: Plus 9 Nuclear in, plus 14 in 3 over existing 54 Mainly reduction in housing, office and transportation -25% reduction: Technically possible with cost of 1-2% of GDP 4

2 i Japanese GHG reduction target (5 8%, 25% from 9 An 8% emission i reduction by 5 will create a largely l different society from today. It will be critical to strategically move forward under mid-term and 3 targets that take into account this eventual 8% reduction. 日本の Japan s CO O2 CO2 温室 and 室効果ガス GHG Emiss ス排出量 ions ( millio ( on 億トン tons of CO2eq) C equiva alent) GDP and Greenhouse Gases CO2 3 Coupling Decoupling Oil Crisis 温室効果ガス GHG GDP % (Compared to (9 9 比 level) ) % (Compared to (9 9 比 level) ) 25% (9 比 ) (Compared to 9 level)4 Onset of Financial Crises Japan s Asset-Inflated 8% Reduction Rapid Economic Bubble Economy (Compared to Growth (9 the 比 9s) ) ( 歳 )(8 歳 )(6 歳 )(4 歳 ) ( 歳 ) ( 歳 ) ) ( ) 内の齢は 各に生まれた人が5 を迎えたときの齢 2) Future GDP values are assumed values based on scenarios A and B from the NIES Low Carbon Society 2) GDPResearch の将来値は国立環境研究所 Project 5 脱温暖化 5プロジェクト A Bシナリオの想定値 s の実質 Real GDP G DP( (trillion 兆円 ye en) ) Japan 日本 5 Emission in 9 = Historical and projected GHG emissions GHG emissions i trends Industry 産業部門 (7 比 16~ %) Commercial 業務部門 (7 比 32~ 49%) Residential 家庭部門 (7 比 33 ~ 5%) 非エネ部門 4 (7 比 +7~ 1%) 運輸部門 (7 比 28~ 34%) 9 Non-energy Reduction rate in to 7 Industry Residential Commercial Non-energy to 9 Industry Residential Commercial 15% % 25% 16% % 17% % % 11% 5% 7% 8% 33% % 4% 24% 5% 31% 14% 17% % % 25% 31% 32% 4% 49% 13% 15% 18% 28% 27% 31% 3% 34% 32% 1% 1% 1% 7% 1% 1% 7% 1% 1% % % % 15% % 25% 18% % 22% 13% 13% 14% 5% 6% 8% 6% 1% 14% 8% 3% 16% 3% % 23% 27% % 11% 2% 11% 25% % 22% 27% % 18% 22% 21% 25% 23% 1% 1% 2% % 25% 26% % % 25% % 26% % Non-energy Left: total reduction Right: upper: reduction within the sector lower: reduction due to energy sector 6 Projected greenhouse gas emissions [/3] nhouse 温室効果ガス gas emi ス排出量 issions (million ( 百万万ト ns of ン tons CO 2 of 換算 CO2) ) 25% reduction of GHG in is technically possible Demand side (household, office, transportation) reduction is the key olume of green 1,5 1, 5 1,398 1,393 1,346 1,358 1,317 1,261 1,286 1,37 1,61 1, % 71 % % % % % Technology fixed Technology improvement trend Technology fixed Technology improvement trend Lo ow order measures Middle order measures Hi gh order me easures 固定参照 25% 25% 25% 固定参照対策対策対策 下位中位上位 非エネルギー部門 Non-energy sector エネルギー転換部門 Energy conversion sector 運輸部門 ation sector 業務部門 Offie sector 家庭部門 Household sector Industry sector 産業部門 Standard annual 基準排出量 volume of emissions ( 参考 ) Case of changing macro-frames (Reference) for all sectors Note: 25% (1): case including around % of international contribution and sinks; 25% (2): case including around 5% of international contribution and sinks; 25% (3): case including no international contribution and sinks. 3 lower order to high order measures: the emissions volume for 3 is done assuming that the measures that have been carried out in order to reduce emissions toward the 25% reduction in will continue to be carried out in 12 through 3. Vo 7 7 IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for? GHG Emissi GHG G ions 排出量 (Million ( 百万 of tons tco2e eq) O2 Equivale ent) Specialist WG discussions incorporating the results of interviews with concerned parties concluded that it is possible for Japan to achieve its reduction targets by building up existing technologies expected to be used in countermeasures. 1,5 <Demand Sector Image> 1, 5 1,261 1,344 1,355 1, Actual 実績 1, , % % 25% Popularize refrigerating machines that use natural refrigerants, etc. 4-5% improvement of passenger vehicle efficiency (ownership basis; including EV/HV) EV/HV: 1 out of every 2 new car sales Car sharing utilization rate: Increase from.3% to 1% of urban population Eco-driving in practice: to 3% Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use advanced insulation and energy saving designs/features 5 to 7% penetration of high-efficiency water heater in householdsh 3 to 4% penetration of building energy control systems to % penetration of PV power in households Steadily popularize state t of art best-available-technology bl t l in the world Fuel conversion to natural gases 8

3 IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for? ) ー国内供給 ( 石油換換算百万 kl apan t) Supply in J l Equivalent Prima ary Energy 一次次エネルギ (Millio on KL of Oil Further discussions ssions are scheduled to be held on the quantitative verification of policy effectiveness, the supply structure for low-carbon technologies and the existence of additional burdens resulting from policy implementation ガス Gas Coal 石炭 石油 Oil Actual 実績 % % 25% <Supply Sector Image> Compared to 5: PV power 24x to 35x Wind power x Geothermal power 3x Ratio of renewable energy to primary energy supply: % to 12% Expand utilization of nuclear power under basic premise of securing the safety (construction of 9 new plants) Significant reduction of oil consumption caused by efficiency improvement and energy conversion in all end-use sectors Decrease of coal consumption resulting from reduction of coal thermal power generation by moving forward with the shift to natural gas Install at most 1 unit in coal thermal power plant (in case of 25%) 9 Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 3 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced. <Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense> 15 illion Yen n) Cost (Tri Additional investment ( 11 total) Energy reduction expense -5 ( 11 total) Energy reduction - expense 15% % 25% ( 21 3 total) reduction reduction reduction Energy saving investment through Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies 15 In the case of device with year lifespan 25 3 Energy reduction Energy reduction expense from energy expense from energy saving investment saving investment = approx. 5 trillion = approx. 49 trillion yen (25% reduction) yen (25% reduction) Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society Japan needs to invest on average 6 to trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a 15% to 25% by. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending. [Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target] 12 Need to spend between 6 and trillion 1-2% of GDP yen per annum across all sectors of Other その他 society.5 Electric 電力系統 Power Systems Other New Energy その他新エネ発電 Generation.7 PV 5.8 太陽光発電 自動車 Automobiles Create Green Commercial Buildings / 1.1 業務用建築物 機器 Markets Equipment Home 家電製品 Electronics Residential Water Heaters 家庭用給湯器.6 2. Housing 住宅 Grow Green 産業 Industrial Markets 15% % 25% Reduction 15% Reduction % 25% Reduction Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture lowcarbon products. Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation. 11 / Year) (Trillion Yen / tional Investm ment Amount Addit Impacts of Nuclear Loss (~) More than half of 62 Nuclear will be out of operation Increase CO2 by substituting nuclear by fossil fuel (.5% CO2/one Nuclear) More demand side saving of energy and electricity : How much effort? Strengthening th regulatory measures: How effective? 12

4 IV. How can Japan Achieve the Targets for? As for nuclear power, a draft proposal has been included d to add 9 new plants by and achieve a utilization ratio of 85% (has averaged 75% since 9). Each new reactor will reduce Japan s CO2 emissions by approximately 5 million tons, while every 1% increase in the utilization ratio of new plants will lead to a 3 million ton reduction. Relationship between the Plan for Additional Nuclear Outlook for Nuclear Power in the Long-term Energy Supply-Demand Forecast Power Capacity and CO2 Emissions CO2 emissions will rise 66 million tons if Japan s nuclear power utilization ratio remains at 75% (*) (*) and only 2 new plants are built. This would mean a 5.2% increase over the benchmark for Utilization Ratio 85% 5 6 New plants MM tons of CO2 Total Output MM kw 98 ( 7.8% over 9) Utilization Ratio 75% Utilization Ratio 85% 9 New Plants 9 New Plants 2 Results 実績値 Total Output 61.43MM kw Total Output 51.6MM kw 9 Utilization Ratio 66% 48.85MM kw kw) Nuclear 原子 Power 子力発電 (, ( 万 k k MM tons of CO2 +4MM tons of CO2 (*) () Years appearing in the legend indicate years for which the Advisory Committee ( 2.4% increase over 9) ( 3.2% increase over 9) on Energy and Natural Resources has formulated a long-term forecast for the energy supply-demand balance Utilization Ratio of Nuclear Power Plants Utilization Ratio 75% New plants 2 % Total Output 51.6MM kw 8% +66MM tons of CO2 ( 5.2% increase over 9) [when reducing CO2 emissions by 25%] 6% 4% 73% 74% 74% 75% 77% 8% 81% 81 % 84 4% 8% 82 2% 81% 73% 6% 67% 72% 7% 61% 6% 66% % Plan to add nuclear power generation and fluctuations in utilization ratio will play a key role. % Plausible Nuclear assumption after Fukushima 関西 高浜 Before Fukushima 85 関西 大飯 中国 上関 1 2 九州 玄海 日本原電 敦賀 関西 美浜 中国 島根 plant (including 9 new) 北海道 泊 東京 柏崎刈羽 北陸 志賀 After Fukushima 31 plant(no new, scrap after 4 year lifetime) 東北 女川 日本原電 東海第二 現役 電源開発 大間 退役 東北 東通 1 2 本想定は電力中央研究所 (11) 原子力利用の停滞は電気料金にどの程度影響するか? における 新設 建て替え中止 シナリオに準じて設定 5 東京 東通 1 2 東北 浪江 小高 東京 福島第一 東京 福島第二 現在建設中断 現在着工準備中 九州 川内 78 四国 伊方 中部 浜岡 : 各図の中の数字は運転開始を表す : ピンク色は昨度 RMにおいて までの運転開始を想定した発電所 日本の原子力発電所分布 3 : 美浜 1 号 (5 ) 敦賀 1 号 (48 ) については寿命延伸認可を考慮 14 温室室効果ガス排排出量 ( 百万トトン CO2 換算 ) Possible reduction by strengthening policy CO2 emission increases 11% without planed nuclear in. But 25% reduction may possible by strengthening policy in conservation and acceleration of technology deployment emission (mil.tco2eq) Increase of CO2 from substituting nuclear 1,4 by fossil fuel burned electric power generation Base year (9) emission 1, 1, % % ma Before Fukushim 14% 1 r 31 nuclear (2%) (9%) y With policy Base:62 nuclear (incl. new 9) revised: 31(no new construction, scrap 4 year lifetime ) Strengthening policy saving Policy Experience in 11summer (saved 15% electric power) continuation of effort % saving of energy service demand in household and office reduction of 25million tco2 =2% to enhance early attainment of new fuel efficiency standard of cars and promoting selection of efficient car by introducing Eco-points etcs. and eco-drive manner high energy conservation standard setting in housing and building (visualization, subsidise, 15 Ⅱ. 削減目標達成に向けた対策深堀の可能性 ) 電力需要 ( 万 kwh Summer 11:16-14% 14% saving electric power consumption In Tohoku and Tokyo Electric Power area, 16% and 14% ave. reduction attained compared with Demand track of Tohoku and Tokyo Electric Power Co. 1, Demand kwh, 8, 6, 4,, 東北電力 (11 ) 東北電力 ( ) 東京電力 (11 ) 東京電力 ( ) Tokyo 11 week Tohoku 第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 5 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週第 1 週第 2 週第 3 週第 4 週 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 ( 出典 ) 電力系統利用協議会資料より作成 11 month 16

5 Suggested component of electric generation in 3 Retirement of nuclear can be covered by demand conservation and renewables Long-term target (5 8%) Generation of Electricity.1billion 12, kwh Achievability depend on how Japan draw its future vision 発電電力量 ( 億 kwh h), 8, 6 6, 4, 2, Renew Fossil Nuclear conservation renewable 省エネ 再エネ その他再生可能エネ発電火力発電原子力発電 ore Fukushim ma Befo lf Nuclear Hal With Policy ore Fukushim ma Befo lf Nuclear Hal With policy Possibility on 8% reduction in 5 Without nuclear, we have to depend much on renewable energy and CCS (Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage). Possibility depend on how we design Japanese future. Service oriented society can achieve 8% reduction with domestic CCS but industry oriented society needs foreign CCS Primary energy supply (million ton OEq) Hydro Nuc NG oil 地熱 水力 原子力 新エネ バイオマス 天然ガス 石油 coal Made in Service sharing 5 Japan MIJ Brand SB Share Vision of Society in 5 石炭 16 1,6 1,4 1, 1, GHG emission (million ton CO2eq) Non energy Energy shift Office Resident industry CCS 8% MIJ SB Share 5 MIJ SB Share Vision of Society in 5 9 emission 非エネ CCS エネ転 運輸 業務 家庭 産業 5 scenario of Japanese society NIES Scenario Road map committee draw 5 Scenarios of Japanese future concerning industry and society Globalize Nationalize Desirable way for growth where to produce Dvelopment Economic Growth /cap Intelligence cente risk Economic Growth Intern l competition Independency Natural resource Financial crisis Slow Economy Industry service Made in Japan Service brand Resource self- feed Service sharing 1.6% 1.8% 14% 1.4% 1.1%.1%

6 GDP(GNP) growth by Scenario 5 の社会像のあり方次第で 3 においても 社会経済状況は大きく変化し得る GDP(GNP) Growth 5= 5 =) 国内 ( 民 ) 総生産 ( premise premise Plan before Fukushima A B MIJ, 159 R&D, 148 SB, 141, 117 Share, 78 III. What the 8% reduction society would look like in 5? In the 8% reduction society in 5, demand for high-temperature heat from the industrial sector and long-distance logistics from the transport sector will preferentially and strategically utilize fossil fuels. The residential and commercial sector, power sector as well as passenger vehicles and shortdistance logistics will need to be zero emission. uivalent 万トン ns of Oil Equ 油換算百万 石油 Million ton Energy conservation prioritized 運輸 Residential/ Commercial 民生 産業 Industrial Low-carbon energy prioritized 15 運輸 9 4% Reduction 8% Reduction Residential/ Compared to 9 民生 運輸 Commercial 6 Residential/ Commercial 民生産業産業運輸 3 Industrial Industrial Industrial 産業 Final 最終エネルギー消費量 Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions CO2 排出量 Million CO tons O2 of 換算百万 CO2 Equ 万トン uivalent Source: Compiled based on preliminary calculations from the snapshot model of the Low-Carbon Society Research Project 5 (*Preliminary calculation representing one possible scenario if the 8% reduction target for 5 is met) 22 Mid-term reduction policy (, 3 ~25%) Final aim=contribution to climate stability (5 8%) tentatively, no international obligation due responsibility in the near future ( more than 25%?) how it should be? Equity? Smooth transition to long-term target* Balance between international and domestic reduction Reduction abroad By applying Japanese technology, investment and assistance Q: Japanese technology still strong? e.g.. RE Smart Grid in Germany, China,, *, Bilateral offset credit: (CDM applicable?) Research cooperation: e.g., ARNLCD** Domestic reduction target What for? Integrate short-/mid-term term issues in long-term target of LC-Society Synergy for energy security (energy demand reduction, distributed system, S-D integration) Guiding industry to long-term transition to green economy & investment Guiding society fit to low carbon future (Infrastructure, lifestyle) Avoiding employment friction and keeping international competitive strength of industry 23 th ASEAN Plus Three Environment Ministers Meeting A proposal for establishing the Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD) Dr. Shuzo Nishioka Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Secretary-General, International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet) 24

7 How? Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD) Contribution from International Input to Policy Organisations, etc (G8/G UNFCCC ) UNEP UNESCA P ADB JICA Gov COE Gov COE Steering Group Secretariat COE Institutional Knowledge Sharing Gov LCS RNet SATREPS JST/JICA APN CLEAN How? KOICA USAID Etc Research Institute COE Centre of Excellence Research Institute GGGI EU Etc 25 Gov Government 26 Mohamad Bin SA ELAL Malaysia Bundit LIMMEECHOKCHAI Thailand Low Carbon Asia Project Research Institutions/ researchers network who dedicating di directly in LCS policy making process ions per capita GHG emissi Developed Countries Developing Countries Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOON Thailand Leapfrog development Rizaldi BOER Indonesia Low Carbon World Energy Intensive Lock ins in Development Damaging the Economy and Natural System Ho Chin SIONG Malaysia Hak MAO Cambodia Jiang KEJUN China Mikiko Ki Kainuma Japan Yutaka MATSUZAWA Japan 27 Dialogue between Policy makers and Researchers in ASEAN countries (- ) Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization Thailand Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment Malaysia Iskandar Authority Malaysia University of Technology Malaysia Source : WEO 9 Min. of Natural Resources and Environment VietNum University of Hanoi Ministry of Environment Cambodia Indian Institute of Management, etc Source : WEO 9 LCS RNet Secretariat/IGES Ministry of Environment Indonesia Bogor Agricultural University 28

8 A proposal for establishing the Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development (ARNLCD) by research organisations dedicating to LCD policy formation Rti Rationale: In order to strengthen th Asia s fundamental and sustained capacity in formulating science-based policies for low-carbon development, and to carry out leapfrog development in Asia for global climate stabilisation, launching a network called the Asia Research Network for Low Carbon Development should be considered. Mechanism: A platform for knowledge sharing and capacity building of in-country researchers, composed of research communities deeply involved in low-carbon development policy processes. Active researchers in-country will work together with Japanese researchers on practical matters not reports for the bookshelf. Objective: To strengthen the scientific base for LCD policies by proactively exchanging the knowledge rooted in the region between policy makers and researchers. Characteristics: Aself-independent independent, autonomous research network, operated through voluntary initiatives by researchers in each country. Organisation: A network of COEs (Centers of Excellence) designated as country focal points. Managed by a steering group and secretariat. Funding: Contributions are expected not only from donor countries but also from international organizations and from ASEAN countries themselves. Action Schedule: After agreed at the ASEAN+3 EMM, preparatory arrangements will be initiated for its launch by 13. Japanese GHG reduction target (5 8%, 25% from 9 An 8% emission i reduction by 5 will create a largely l different society from today. It will be critical to strategically move forward under mid-term and 3 targets that take into account this eventual 8% reduction. 室効果ガス GHG Emiss ス排出量 ions CO2eq) equiva alent) GDP and Greenhouse Gases Coupling Decoupling 温室効果ガス GHG % (Compared to(9 9比 level) ) P DP( (trillion 兆円 ye en) ) 29