APRIL 2009 FOR THE PRD

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION CHINA UPDATETO NDRC S APRIL OUTLINE 2009 PLAN FOR THE PRD APRIL Background 1 Rationale December 2008, NDRC released Addresses perceived short-comings of the last 30 years of development NDRC aware of the unusual times

2 HK Govt: Transforming PRD into green quality living Here is what the document looks like 2 HK Govt input - transforming the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region into a green and quality living area Consultation document Key questions: What sort of feedback could Hong Kong give to the NDRC? How would HK like to contribute to development of the PRD over the next 11 or 12 years?

3 Strategic Directions Advanced manufacturing and services Opening-up Pilot region National economic centre 1. What are some of the goals, targets & actions that the Outline sets between now and 2020? Vision & aspirations Many statements in the nature of targets and goals and directions: PRD: Becoming one of the world s mega metropolitan areas ; Leading China s modernization; Promoting world-class scientific innovation; Fostering sound ecological management; 4 Strategic directions: 1. A world-class base for advanced manufacturing and modern service industries Transformational direction. Move away from current low status industries Key Question: Is it correct view? 2. An international gateway for expanding the programme of opening-up the economy; continuing liberalisation of the market 3. Pilot region means flexibility for experimentation for what? 4. An important national economic centre. 3

4 Industrial modernization Planning reform Social reform Administrative reform Four areas of reform Space devoted to each in the document. Note: Space devoted to administration 4

5 Wantou Project, Dateng Gorges Project Solidifica7on and compliance works for Jingfeng United Embankment, Jiangxin United Embankment, Zhongshan Shunde Grand Embankment Renova7on project of the Pearl River estuary PRD center for the monitoring and early warning of small and medium meteorological disasters 60+ Key projects Public informa7on plahorm for the modern logis7cs in South China, Automo7ves using new energy Construc7on of the inter city fast rail transit system for the Pearl River Delta Genera7ng electric power with garbage and residual heat Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai establish coopera7ve higher educa7on ins7tu7ons with 3 to 5 famous foreign universi7es, 40+ Bases 10+ Centers Establish comprehensive free trade area at baiyun airport Liantang/Xiangyuanwei border port Coopera7on between the airports of Shenzhen and Hong Kong Bay area ac7on plan covering the Pearl River mouth Park for Taiwanese peasants at Jinwan, Zhuhai Cross strait agricultural coopera7on pilot zone in Foshan Base for advanced manufacturing and modern service industries Backup service base for the modern financial industry Bases for interna7onal service outsourcing Na7onal base of soyware and cartoon industries Base for major complete sets of equipment and technological equipment Base for ship building and repairing Base for manufacturing ocean engineering equipment 10+ New districts Globally advanced super large base of the petrochemical industry Base of modern informa7on industries Construc7on of the bases of fresh and live agricultural produces Major base for transla7on of research findings of the Asian Pacific region Construct a group of bases for industrializing innova7ve findings Construct demonstra7on bases for ministry province sponsored coopera7on 25+ PRD Leads Base for nuclear power and nuclear power equipment of the country Construc7on of advanced manufacturing bases Huizhou a base of petrochemical industries Eastern bank of the Pearl River mouth a world class base of electronics and informa7on industries Shenzhen base of advanced manufacturing industries and hi tech industries Zhuhai the ocean engineering and equipment manufacturing base 10+ Demonstration areas Zhongshan base of port front equipment manufacturing, fine chemicals, and healthcare industries Eastern and western Guangdong petrochemical, steel and iron, shipbuilding, and energy produc7on bases North Guangdong an accessory base for the advanced manufacturing industries of the Pearl River Delta Construct intensive training bases for voca7onal educa7on Major base in South China for voca7onal and technical educa7on 10+ Reforms Demonstra7on base of voca7onal skill development and evalua7on Na7onal level base for incuba7ng employment through business undertaking Na7onal level base for healing industrial injuries Establish a number of interna7onal service outsourcing bases Interna7onal center for shipping, logis7cs, trade, conferences and exhibi7on, tourism, and innova7on Initiatives & Quantitative Goals Moving from overarching strategic directions to more concrete proposal: Over 150 initiatives with a specific name Na7onal economic center Guangzhou and shenzhen to set up regional financial centers Guangdong to build world class logis7cs centers Region as a center for interna7onal electronic commerce 5

6 Quantitative goals for 2020 Per capita GDP - 135,000 Average life expectancy - 80 years Income levels, urban and rural = 2 x year 2012 Service industries - 60% of growth Urbanization level - 85% The growth of the advanced manufacturing industries will account for over 50% of the industrial growth The growth of hi-tech industries will account for up to 30% of overall industrial growth The number of the enterprises which earn an annual revenue of over 100 billion yuan from main business will have reached around 20, as will the number of the globally famous brands of the region The cargo handling capacity of the ports, 1.4 billion tons The container handling capacity, 72 million standard containers The mileage of rail transit operation will reach 2,200 kilometers Capacity of the civil airports, 150 million person-times Major embankments and dikes, 50 to 100 years. At that time, the water source assurance rate for water supply will reach 97% for large and medium cities and 90% for ordinary towns, and the quality of the water source will be complied with the quality standards specified for the relevant water function zone. Defense capabilities of the downtowns of guangzhou and shenzhen will be able to cope with the worst flood or tide that has ever occurred in the past 200 years; Defense capabilities of the the downtowns of other prefecture-level cities will be able to cope with the worst flood or tide that has ever occurred in the past 100 years; Defense capabilities of the county cities, will be able to cope with the worst flood or tide that has ever occurred in the past 50 years; Energy consumption for each unit of GDP will be lowered to 0.57tec. Energy consumption per capita GDP and the environmental quality will have reached or approached the advanced levels of the world The recycling rate of the water for industrial use will reach 80% The rate of urban wastewater treatment will reach over 90%, the rate of harmless treatment of urban living garbage will reach around 100%, and the compliance rate of industrial waster discharge will reach around 100%; The per capita area of parks and greens for urban residents will reach 15 square meters, 900,000 hectares of public ecological woods will be cultivated, and 82 natural reserves will be established. Guangzhou, shenzhen, and Zhuhai will establish cooperative higher education institutions with 3 to 5 famous foreign universities, and. The region will develop 1 to 2 universities that are first class in china and enjoy a leading status in the world. Higher level of social insurance will have been realized for the whole society The growth of cultural industries will account for 8% of overall gdp growth of the region. Service trade will account for 40% of total volume of import and export The region will foster 10 native multinational corporations of which each earns an annual sales revenue of over 20 billion dollars. Over 30 goals with some sort of quantity attached 6

7 Headline Targets , , x 2 GDP per CAPITA AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY INCOME 2008 Guangdong 2005 Pick out a few headline targets In a way, these describe the trend desired for the whole of China. 7

8 Services 60% 20x > 100b annual revenue GDP Growth 30% 50% Industrial growth Hi-Tech industries Advanced Manufacturing 20 Global Brands Some more headline targets for industry: 8

9 Zhaoqing Foshan Guangzhou Dongguan Huizhou IMPROVEMENT STIMULATION Zhongshan Shenzhen Jiangmen Zhuhai Macao Hong Kong 1. Where will these developments occur? Eastern Bank of the Delta The development strategy is different for each district. East: improvement Shenzhen, advanced manufacturing base for hi-tech industries. Dongguan, establishing an industrial park to upgrade its manufacturing. Huizhou, port related and petrochemical industries. In areas near and around Hong Kong, the Outline favours the service industries finance, conventions and exhibitions, logistics, science and technology services, and cultural and creative services especially. The Chief Executive Mr Tsang has echoed these sentiments to a media session after a meeting of the Task Force on Economic Challenges earlier this month. Western Bank Western Delta - stimulation, targeting: The Gaolan Port Industrial Area; Foshan s machinery and equipment manufacturing industries; and Establishing or upgrading factories in Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing into advanced manufacturing industries. 9

10 Shaoguan Zhaoqing Qingyuan PRD Huizhou Heyuan Meizhou SHIP Jieyang OIL Chaozhou Shantou STEEL Shanwei Yunfu SHIP OIL Maoming Yangjiang Macao Hong Kong Zhanjiang STEEL Rest of the Guangdong For the rest of Guangdong, the NDRC is providing a picture of change that is already in the policy mix of the Province. Heavy and chemical industries moving outwards from the PRD. East and west coastal areas of Guangdong. Labour intensive, low-value-high-output, industries spilling over into the hinterland counties of the PRD. Consistent with rural development. 10

11 ENERGY OPEN, DIVERSIFIED, CLEAN, SAFE, ECONOMIC, SECURE AND RELIABLE 4. How will energy be supplied to support these developments? Broad agenda Up until recently, power shortages. Results 11

12 % 85% ,800km 2,200km million person times Urbanization Rail transit milage Civil airports capacity billion tonnes Cargo handling capacity 72 million TEU Standard containers handling capacity Source: HKTDC GD Statistical yearbook Infrastructure targets Before discussing how the Outline sees supply being met, a few words about demand: 12 Specific planning and infrastructure targets: Urbanization consistent with a move to a services economy About 20% extra mileage needs to be added to the railway system

13 b 100b 100b 100b 2007 Guangzhou 3 automakers with > 100b output each ~5Mt 2008 Guangdong 10 Mt 10 million tonne ship building and repair capacity e.g. Huizhou 12Mt (2008) 10 Mt 10 Mt 10 Mt oil refineries with >10 million tonne capacity Higher value production Three industries that get special mention as examples of advanced manufacturing are cars, ships and oil refining. 13

14 POWER INFRASTRUCTURE NUCLEAR COAL ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY OIL & GAS RURAL ENERGY SUPPLY Electricity Infrastructure Supply Nuclear lot of emphasis. As well, manufacturing Coal fired optimized Environmentally friendly power wind, solar, residual heat and garbage Oil & Gas acknowledgement of the lack of indigenous energy resources. Rural - In relation to supplying rural people with electricity, the Outline lists a mix of off-grid options, as well as links to the urban supply network. Key questions: Is this a realistic assessment of energy supply for the type of development envisaged? How can it be built up in a way consistent with a vision for green PRD? 14

15 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GOAL 0.57 TEC PER GDP GUANGZHOU TEC TEC Energy Efficiency The Outline s energy efficiency target is to reduce consumption to 0.57 tec per unit of GDP. This is a very specific number but there isn t any other background material. Key question: How ambitious is this target and whether it will act as a strong driver for energy conservation? Of course, the number relates to GDP and doesn t tell us much about reducing overall consumption. 15

16 ADMINISTRATION OF ENERGY POLICY Administration of energy policy While some mention is made about responsibility for new projects to meet energy efficiency targets, the language about enforcement and administration of energy policy is couched in fairly careful language, acknowledging the difficulties of enforcement. 16

17 Joint R&D - clean energy and renewable resources Clean production GD Profitable networks of energy supply and marketing Clean energy policies HK Adopt unified standards on car fuel, vessel fuel, and emissions that are the most advanced in China 6. And where does Hong Kong fit into the Outline? Joint efforts This is what s in the document. Consultation document opportunity to provide feedback on how it would like to contribute and collaborate. Civic Exchange has been working on a number of fronts on areas of collaboration with Guangdong. Ports, Energy efficiency, air pollution. 17

18 Shaoguan Qingyuan Heyuan Meizhou Chaozhou Maoming Yunfu Yangjiang Zhaoqing Jiangmen Foshan Guangzhou Zhongshan Zhuhai Dongguan Macao Shenzhen Huizhou Hong Kong Shanwei Jieyang Shantou Zhanjiang 7. Closing Remarks The Outline is a document full of detail. My job today was simply to give you a broad overview of it and some of its internal tensions. The transit from the old philosophy and style of development in the PRD to some of the visions sketched in the Outline is going to be very challenging to realize. In conclusion I d like to mention an example of how these conflicts are already being played out. The Sinopec-Kuwait Petroleum joint venture to build one of the biggest oil refineries in China was for about a decade planned for Nansha roughly half way between HK and Guangzhou. In the old development mentality, this was seen by Guangzhou as advantageous to locate it near the industrial facilities. However, other concerns have come to the fore about a potentially high emissions plant. This has encouraged discussion about other locations for the refinery, with input from a range of scientific expertises including expertise on the meteorology and air flows. 18

19 Played out with political statements. So the transformation envisaged by the plan involves some new contests between old and new visions. We live in an unusual time for such a transformation, given the financial situation. We d be interested for your comment later in the discussion session about whether the economic situation means a fallback on Business-as-usual or is it an opportunity even an imperative for the transformation. 19

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