Adapting Ho Chi Minh City for Climate Change Urban Compactness: a Problem or Solution?

Transcription

1 Adapting Ho Chi Minh City for Climate Change Compactness: a Problem or Solution? 44 th ISOCARP Congress 2008: Growth without Sprawl - Dalian, China - 22 th September 2008 > > > Harry S T O R C H > > > Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Enviromental Planning

2 BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) Programme: Research for Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow Energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth centres (

3 M Megadeltas e g a t r e n in d Vietnam i n A s i a Migration ~ of 38 the % population of Vietnam s from urban rural population environments are living to megacities in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) Impact of 1 m SLR in Vietnam (Source: Dasgupta (UN 2001) et al. 2007)

4 Population growth of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) Permanent Population ~ 6 Million Income per capita $2000 (Vietnam $640) Contribution to GDP ~ 22% ~ 8 Million Million Million

5 International Airport (Tan Son Nhat) ~ 12 X 12 km Structure of HCMC Population Distribution Area (km²) Population 2004 Pop. Density 2004 (inh./sqkm) Greenspace per capita 2004 Historical Commercial & Business Core (Chinese City 'Cholon') Floorspace per capita 2004 Districts (quan) million m m 2 Inner-Core million Rural Districts (huyen) 1, million m 2 - Ho Chi Minh City 2, million m 2 10 m 2 Old City Port C B D Historical Commercial & Business Core (Colonial City of 'Saigon') Inner-city Port Distric

6 界 ww w. 城 ci 市 ty 规 up 划.o 与 rg 交 通 网 International Airport (Tan Son Nhat) Structure of HCMC Typologies In the Inner-City: CBD Predominant Shophouse Typology Historical Commercial & Business Core (Colonial City of 'Saigon') 都 市 世 Road-network for motorized individual traffic Commercial & Business Core (Chinese City 'Cholon') Inner-city Port District

7 The transport infrastructure occupies only 8% of the total urban area (inner-city core) Transport Infrastructure

8 Compactness of HCMC - Development challenges Infrastructure bottleneck: energy shortage, inadequate transport, and inadequate urban facilities but a compact urban form is a critical factor in creating energy efficient and sustainable urban systems.

9 Energy Efficieny... covering domestic consumption, buildings, public lighting, cooling systems and urban transport. MITIGATION Thematic focus - Adaptation GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Environment Regional Impacts, "filtered" through natural, physical and socio-economic conditions Responses Development Knowledge, tools, capacities and networks for adaptation measures ADAPTATION Adaptation of urban land, urban structures and urban development concepts to foreseeable climate changes as well as to weather extremes whose intensity is increasing, and which are already perceptible today.

10 HCMC Development Trend Area (km²) Population 2004 Population 2020 (Source: Statistical Yearbook of Ho Chi Minh City 2005) Floorspace per capita Inner Districts million 6 million 7-8 m 2 Suburban Districts 1, million 4 million Whole City 2, million 10 million 10 m 2 Population density of inhabitants/km 2 in inner city districts ( in inner-city informal settlements) Draft Masterplan HCMC 2025

11 Current ized Areas and Land Conditions Natural Conditions (Flood-prone Area, Soil Conditions) Source: JICA 2004 HOUTRANS - Study

12 界 ww w. 城 ci 市 ty 规 up 划.o 与 rg 交 通 网 世 都 市 Large city expansion projects on undeveloped, swampy and flood prone land: New CBD Thu Thiem on approx. 730ha land with 6.2 mio. sqm total floor space Sasaki Associates Inc. 2004

13 界 ww w. 城 ci 市 ty 规 up 划.o 与 rg 交 通 网 世 都 市 Large city expansion projects on undeveloped, swampy and flood prone land: New CBD Thu Thiem on approx. 730ha land with 6.2 mio. sqm total floor space Sasaki Associates Inc. 2004

14 Research Approach Research Approach Two central action fields: - Action field 1 - Environment will evaluate the local impacts of climate change as well as their spatial manifestation in the urban region of HCMC. - Action field 2 - Development will develop energy- and climate efficient urban planning strategies for the spatial levels ranging from the region to the individual building, with a focus on the neighborhood level.

15 Highest Elv.: +10 m Lowest Elev.: 0.5 m Flooding Flooding Climate (Sources: Ho Long Phi 2007, JICA 2004) Energy HCMC Inner Core Inner Fringe Emerging Peripheral Suburban Rural Total Transport Flood Prone (%) km 2 of HCM City with 2 Mill. people would be flooded at water level +2.0 m (e.g. tide (1,5 m) + 0,5 m sea-level rise from now).

16 Flooding Land Surface Temperatures ranging from 23 0 C to 34 0 C Climate Climate Energy Transport Heat Island (UHI) The warming of the inner-core is significantly higher (up to 10 ºC) than the surrounding rural areas (Sources: Tran Thi Van 2004; Ho Tong Minh Dinh et al. 2006/ Le Van Trung et al. 2006)

17 Flooding Climate Energy Electricity consumption structure in Vietnam Transport Electricity demand in Vietnam is forecasted to grow 15 percent per year Electric. Consum. Total (Bill. KWh) Household and service (Bill. KWh) % 19,55 10,02 51,1 22,4 10,98 49,0 25,86 12,64 49,1 30,22 14,33 47,4 34,83 15,99 45,9 39,68 18,24 Electricity consumption of cooling and air-conditioning technology Electricity demand GWh Energy (Source: MONRE (2005) Technical report on the identification and assessment of technology needs for GHG emission reduction and climate change adaptation in Viet Nam) HCMC s electricity consumption is about 25% of the total consumption of Viet Nam

18 HCMC Public Transport Flooding Number Transport Climate Mode share Energy Public transport in HCMC is very poorly developed. Transport Transport in HCMC Motorised vehicle ownership (per 1,000 residents) City Motorcycles Cars Total Motorbikes ~2.5 million ~ 75 % Vienna % Hanoi Most traffic related impacts on the environment derive from private passenger traffic. (Sources: Magistratsabteilung 66 - Statistisches Amt 2002; TDSI 2004)

19 Adaptation Planning Framework AF1 - Adaptation Planning Framework Flooding Climate Energy Spatial Planning Information System Sustainability Indicator System Transport Governance and Administrative Integration Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning Regional Climate Change Effects (including Current Climate Variability and Extremes)

20 Spatial Integration What if? Tubehouse Neighbourhood (Type B) High-rise (Type A) 20

21 Inner urban structures Need for a commonly accepted spatial classification Regional/City Level Neighbourhood Level Street Block Level Building Level Typologies Different scientific approaches to the 'urban environment' require a commonly accepted spatial working basis Structure Types and Housing-related Typologies provide a uniform spatial framework for the different tasks within the network of Adaptation Planning.

22 Summary and Outlook Adaptive Responses to Global Warming on Planning Level Impacts + Consequences of Climate Change Impacts from Flooding and Sea Level Rise Intensification of Heat Islands Risks Buildings/ Infrastructure People Salinisation of Ground Water Human Comfort Air Quality Cooling of Buildings... Adaptation Planning Framework Spatial Framework (GIS + Environment) I N F O R M A T I O N Guidelines for Energy + Climate Efficient Planning Measures Zoning Guidelines Building Codes Flood Control +Management Zoning Guidelines 'Green' Areas Energy-Use of Buildings Adaptation to Climate Change Planning Policies Planning and Flood Protection Energy-Efficient + Climate-Conscious Planning

23 Many thanks for your attention! (Photos: Ho Long Phi) > > > Harry S T O R C H > > > Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Enviromental Planning