The impact of lifestyle and social change on the UK energy system

Transcription

1 The impact of lifestyle and social change on the UK energy system Sustainable lives? The challenges of low-carbon living in a changing economic climate Nick Eyre

2 The Energy Lifestyles Scenario The project: One scenario in the UK Energy Research Centre project Energy 2050 The aim: To understand the potential impact of lifestyle change on the UK energy system on 2050, in particular carbon emissions and system resilience The team: Nick Eyre, Christian Brand, Russell Layberry (Oxford), Jillian Anable (Aberdeen), Neil Strachan (King s, London)

3 What are lifestyles? Various definitions Consumption patterns Preferences Use of time and space Social values and norms Public acceptance of technology and policy change Our focus Decisions that affect energy demand

4 The lifestyle scenario Storyline: Socially led change in energy use Re-evaluation of consumption Green housing ; community living ; accessibility, not mobility Policy consistent with social norms Which behaviours: Household energy & personal transport Technology choice & use Scale of change: End points consistent with observed behaviour somewhere in OECD today Rates of change based on historically observed rates

5 Lifestyle scenario - methodology Story line Modelling Output 1 Modelling Variants Income and population growth; International context Social norms, attitudes preferences, acceptance, consumption UK Domestic Carbon Model UK Transport Carbon Model Energy Service Demands & Technology Choices MARKAL UK Energy System Model Reference case LS REF LS LC Low carbon case

6 The Scenarios ENERGY SYSTEM ATTRIBUTES Lifestyle Low Carbon constraint REF Reference ( firm and funded policies as of EWP 2007) LC Low carbon LS Lifestyle LS LC Lifestyle low carbon

7 Household energy use - lifestyle driving forces Drivers of energy service demand: internal temperature consumption of hot water use of lighting and appliances Choice of energy technology in the home: Retrofit insulation decisions Replacement heating systems Lighting and appliance numbers and efficiency Energy generation in the home

8 Household sector impacts on energy demand Household useful energy demand - LS REF scenario TWh space_heat water_heat dla gas_appliances total 0 year A combination of energy service demand reduction and efficiency improvement reduces energy demand by more than 50% from baseline levels by 2050.

9 Household sector impacts on heating systems Residential heating by fuel type in different scenarios (2000 and 2050) 1,800 PJ 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Solar District heating / micro-chp Solid/wood fuel Oil Coal Heat pumps Electricity Gas (instant) Gas (condensing) Gas REF LS REF LC LS LC Up to 2025, the major change is market penetration of condensing boilers. By 2050 the sector is transformed in different ways

10 Transport sector lifestyle and mobility changes Accessibility Localism Slower speeds Compact cities Car-free zones Car clubs ICT Tele-working Tele-shopping Less air travel Policy acceptance Total distance Mode choice Vehicle choice Driving Style Car Occupan cy Down 21% Car from 67-38% distance Cycle from 1-13% distance Electric and hydrogen vehicles 77% vkms in 2050 Ecodriving = 5% reduction in CO 2 per km by 2025 Car occupancy up 23% by 2050

11 Transport sector impact on fuel demand Transport Fuel Demand in different scenarios (2000 and 2050) 2,500 Ethanol/methanol 2,000 Bio-diesel/kerosene 1,500 Jet fuel PJ Hydrogen 1,000 Electricity 500 Diesel Petrol REF LS REF LC LS LC

12 Impacts of lifestyle on the wider energy system Final Energy Demand by Fuel in different scenarios (2000 and 2050) 7,000 PJ 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Others Heat Biomass Manufactured fuel Bio diesels Ethanol/Methanol Hydrogen Jet fuel Diesel Petrol Coal Gas LPG Fuel oil Electricity REF LS REF LC LS LC Lifestyle reduces energy demand by ~30% by 2050

13 Implications for electricity supply Electricity generation mix in ,500 Storage Solar PV 2,000 1,500 Marine Imports Biowaste & others Wind Hydro PJ Oil 1,000 Nuclear Gas CCS Gas 500 Coal CCS Coal REF LS REF LC LS LC Lifestyle change increases the share of electricity in final demand, but it limits the scale of electrification to meet tough carbon targets.

14 Cost implications Cost benefit comparison between scenarios with different lifestyle is not appropriate as preferences differ Increased investment in insulation ~ 2bn per year Reduced energy supply system costs of 90bn per year in 2050 A low carbon energy system with lifestyle change is ~ 90bn per year cheaper 2.5% of projected GDP - in 2050

15 Conclusions Lifestyle change can produce a combination of energy service demand and technology change that: reduce energy demand in homes and transport by more than 50% below baseline levels by 2050 reduce national energy use and carbon emissions by ~30% below baseline change end use technologies to increase the share of electricity, but reduce the absolute increase in electricity demand reduce the cost of delivering a low carbon energy system by ~ 90 billion