2030 energy strategy: cost optimal renovation and nearly

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1 2030 energy strategy: cost optimal renovation and nearly Click zero energy to edit Master new buildings title style TWN / PuRE-net Annual Conference 2014 Tallinn Jarek Kurnitski Professor, Tallinn University of Technology, Aalto University Vice-president REHVA

2 Commitment of European Union to low-carbon economy " " policy adopted in 2007 with three key objectives for % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels Raising the share of EU energy sources from renewable resources to 20% 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency (20% primary energy saving from 2005 projection)

3 Can EU deliver targets? Follow up studies show expected progress with GHG and renewables 20% Energy Efficiency target has not been on track and cannot be achieved by 2020 (EED has improved the situation) New measures have been prepared to catch EE target: New roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 was established Up to 90% reduction of GHG emissions in building sector New energy efficiency action plan, buildings are major targets New energy efficiency directive EED : % July 23, 2014

4 A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050 Adopted on March, EU GHG emissions towards an 80% domestic reduction (100% =1990)

5 EU climate and energy policy framework for 2030 The framework for 2030 proposed by the European Commission is under discussion: sets a targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% below the 1990 level and to increase RES to 27% but abandons binding targets for energy efficiency and renewables 2030 targets are expected to be fixed by the end of 2015: Green Paper "A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies" European Parliament has already voted for binding energy efficiency targets: Binding energy efficiency targets have guided R&D work in the building sector for more than 10 years Abandoning the energy efficiency target could stop the progress and destroy the leadership of the European industry The European Commission (23 July) proposed reducing the bloc's energy use by 30% by 2030, leaving it up to EU heads of states to decide whether or not to endorse the target at a forthcoming summit in October

6 Main actions of EU to improve the energy efficiency of buildings 1. Decrease the total energy use of new and existing buildings 2. Decrease the electricity use of equipment and products 3. Increase the use of renewable energies - set targets 4. Increase the awarness of consumers and building specifiers 5. Enhance the administrative actions to improve energy efficiency

7 Legislative actions in EU to reach the targets Energy Performance of Buildings Directive EPBD 2002, 2010 Improvement of energy performance of buildings - targets in kwh/m 2 in primary energy Cost optimal and nzeb buildings Ecodesign of Energy Related Product - ErP 2005, 2009 Energy efficiency of energy using products, minimum efficiency Renewable energies directive (RES) 2009 Increase the use of renewables up to 20%, biofuels up to 10% in EU Ecolabeling 2000 and Energy labeling 2010 directives Energy classes A. G in label, ecolabel for best product Energy efficiency directive EED 2012 District heating, CHP, renovation 3%/a, public procurement, public buildings as model Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

8 Focus on primary energy ENERGY NEED usually calculated kwh/m² ENERGY USE DELIVERED ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY Thermal energy from RES used on-site System losses Transformation losses Energy need for: Heating Cooling Ventilation DHW Lighting Appliances Heat from fuels for: Space heating and DHW Electricity for: Cooling Lighting Fans Appliances etc. Fuel delivered energy Electric delivered energy Primary energy Jarek Kurnitski Electric energy from RES used on-site Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

9 Primary energy, kwh/m 2 a Towards nzeb: Roadmap of some countries towards nearly zero energy buildings to improve energy performance of new buildings Many countries have prepared long term roadmaps with detailed targets Helps industry to prepare/commit to the targets Estonia 50 Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

10 Energy use in buildings Final energy use in Estonia TWh/a The share of buildings 50% (without industrial buildings) EU average about 40% Energy strategy ENMAK under preparation J. Kurnitski et al. / Energy and Buildings 75 (2014)

11 IPCC: Buildings show globally the highest economic carbon reduction potential Energy performance of buildings is globally the highest and cheapest sector for GHG reduction

12 EPBD recast Nearly zero energy buildings nzeb In the directive nearly zero-energy building means a building that has a very high energy performance (EP). The nearly zero or very low amount of energy required should be covered to a very significant extent by energy from renewable sources, including energy from renewable sources (RES) produced on-site or nearby. nzeb = very high EP + on-site or nearby RES Definition of a very high EP and significant extent of RES let for Member States (MS), however the cost-optimality principle has been set. EPBD Article By 31 Dec 2020, all new buildings are nearly zero energy buildings - After 31 Dec 2018, public authorities that occupy and own a new building shall ensure that the building is a nearly zero energy building Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

13 Max delivered energy, kwh/(m 2 a) 2013 EP min. requirements comparison: Apartment and office buildings with district heating (Kurntski, CLIMA 2013) Recalculation from primary energy to delivered energy needed, which can be compared in all countries Degree-day correction (base 17 C) to Copenhagen, energy use for hot water heating 25 kwh/(m 2 a) in apartments Apartment building Office building 0 Denmark Norway Sweden Estonia Finland Maximum allowed delivered energy for heating, hot water and ventilation systems in apartment buildings and for office buildings (lighting included) with district heating Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

14 Energy flows to be covered by nzeb definition for EP P calculation Primary energy indicator EP P EP P E A P net Edel, i f del, i Eexp, i fexp, i i A net i For thermal and electrical energy it applies: Delivered exported energy = energy use on site renewable Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

15 Situation with national energy frames Differences in energy frames: Primary energy not yet used in all countries Some countries (Germany, France) use reference building method, fixed values in other countries Both simulation (Estonia, Finland) and monthly methods (Germany, Denmark) used Inclusion of energy flows depends on country: Germany/residential heating energy only (space heating, DHW and heating of ventilation air) Germany/non-residential cooling and lighting also included (appliances not) Denmark appliances and in residential also lighting not included Sweden appliances and user s lighting not included (facility lighting incl.) Estonia, Finland, Norway appliances and lighting included (all inclusive) RES (on site renewable energy production) is not accounted in all countries Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

16 European climate zones Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

17 Region Country nzeb Energy performance Values Unit Metric Energy uses for: Building type EP calculation nzeb req. RES Zone 1-2 (Catania, Athens) Cyprus kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy heating, cooling, hot water, lighting Residential Non-residential No No 25% 25% Zone 3 (Budapest, Bratislava, Ljubjana) Slovakia kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy Heating, hot water, ventilation, cooling (non-res), lighting (non-res) Detached Apartment Offices N.a. N.a. N.a. 50% 50% 50% Belgium BXL ,5*(V/S) kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy heating, cooling (nonres), hot water, lighting (non-res) appliances Residential Offices, educational Yes Yes - - Zone 4 (Paris, Amsterdam Berlin, Brussels, Copenhage n, Dublin, London, Macon, Nancy, Prague, Warsaw) Belgium Walloon Belgium Flemish 60 kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy France kwh/m 2 /y kwh/m 2 /y Energy use Primary energy Ireland 45 kwh/m 2 /y Energy load heating, hot water, appliances Heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation, auxiliary systems heating, ventilation, cooling, hot water, lighting, auxiliary systems heating, ventilation, hot water, lighting Residential and non-res. Residential Office and school Residential Office Office AC N.a. 50% Yes Yes No No No >10 kwh/m 2 y >10 kwh/m 2 y Residential N.a Netherlands 0 [-] Energy perform. coefficient (EPC) heating, ventilation, cooling, hot water, lighting Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations Residential/ non-residential Yes Yes - -

18 Region Country nzeb Energy performance Values Unit Metric Energy uses for: Building type EP calculation nzeb req. RES Denmark kwh/m 2 /y Energy need heating, cooling, ventilation, hot water, lighting (nonres) Residential Non-residential Yes Yes 51-56% 51-56% Zone 5 (Coopenha gen, Tallinn, Helsinki, Riga, Stockholm, Gdansk, Tovarene) Estonia kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy Latvia 95 kwh/m 2 /y Primary energy heating, ventilation, cooling, hot water, lighting, auxiliary electricity, appliances heating, cooling, domestic hot water, ventilation, lighting Detached house Apartment Office Hotel Residential/ nonresidential Yes - Yes - Yes - Yes - N.a. - Lithuania <0,25 [-] Energy performance indicator C heating Residential/ not-residential N.a. 50% Data from CA EPBD Oct 2013 (Kurnitski et al. REHVA Journal 2/2014) Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

19 Constructed buildings: nzeb case studies provide more reliable benchmarks than first national nzeb definitions (REHVA Journal 2/2014) Energy data from four nzeb office buildings: Delivered heating is in first building a fuel and in last one district heat. Two other buildings have heat pumps, delivered heating is electricity. Delivered cooling is in all buildings electricity. On site electricity is PV in 3 buildings and bio-chp in one building. All values in the table are in kwh/m2y. Climate City, Delivered energy On site Primary zone country Heating Cooling Fans&pumps Lighting Appliances electricity energy Dion 4 France Gland 4 Switzerland Hoofddrop 4 Holland Helsinki 5 Finland For all buildings the following primary energy factors were applied: 0.7 for heating (district heat or biomass); 2.0 for electricity. Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations Appliances may be largest component in energy balance of nzeb buildings

20 Towards nearly zero energy buildings Estonia Primary energy requirements for 9 building types (apply from Jan 9, 2013) nzeb Low energy Min.req. new Min.req. maj.ren. A B C (cost opt.) D (cost opt.) kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) Detached houses Apartment buildings Office buildings nzeb and low energy requirements officially given (not yet mandatory) Primary energy factors: Electricity 2.0 Fossil fuels 1.0 District heat 0.9 Renewable fuels 0.75 Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

21 Liginullenergiahooned Eestis Defineeritud ja nõuded toodud VV määruses nr 68 ( , jõustub ) Energiatõhususe miinimumnõuded Liginullenergiahoonete ehitamine ei ole kohustuslik, kuid selleks, et nimetada hoonet liginullenergiahooneks tuleb täita VV määruse nr 68 nõue energiatõhususarvu piirväärtus Energiatõhususarvude piirväärtused ehitatavatele ja oluliselt rekonstrueeritavatele hoonetele Hoone kasutusotstarve Liginullenergia- Madalenergia- Miinimum- Oluline hoone hoone nõue rekonstrueerimine A B C D kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) kwh/(m 2 a) Väikeelamutes Korterelamutes Büroohoonetes, raamatukogudes ja teadushoonetes Ärihoonetes Avalikes hoonetes Kaubandushoonetes ja terminalides Haridushoonetes Koolieelsetes lasteasutustes Tervishoiuhoonetes

22 nzeb def needs detailed system boundaries System boundaries (SB) for energy need, energy use and delivered and exported energy calculation. The last one may be interpreted as the building site boundary. Demand reduction measures can be distinguished from RE solutions in the energy use SB, not in the delivered/exported energy SB Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

23 Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

24 nzeb requirements up today National nzeb applications show remarkably high variation between 20 and 200 kwh/m²y primary energy in ten countries: caused partly due to different energy uses included and partly due to different level of ambition in the definitions exclusion of the energy flows leads to situation where calculated energy use could represent only a small fraction of measured energy use in real buildings Requirements only for residential and non-residential show that majority of countries cannot tackle the eight building types specified in EPBD recast Annex nzeb primary energy values showed a reduction by factor of 1.6 in Estonia and by about 2 in Denmark compared to current EP minimum requirements of office buildings Member States need more guidance in order to set consistent and comparable nzeb values with equal ambition levels Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning Associations

25 2030 energy scenarios what can be done with building stock? (ENMAK 2030+) Scenario S1 Scenario S2 Scenario S3 Integrated renovation variants Min Cost optimal Cost optimal Renovation rate of apartment buildings, %/a Renovation rate of detached houses, %/a Renovation rate of non-residential buildings, %/a Building stock loss (demolition), %/a New construction rate in residential buildings, %/a New construction rate in nonresidential buildings, %/a Application of nzeb requirements in new buildings, a

26 Integrated renovation variants Net present value 20 a, /m Min S1 (EPC class E) Cost optimal, S2 and S3 (EPC class C&D) Väikeelamu, uus Väikeelamu, vana Korterelamu Büroohoone Koolimaja Kaubandus - ja teenindus Tööstus ilma protsessita Investement cost, /m 2 Points from left to right: from existing situation to the deepest renovation variant Net present value includes renovation cost and discounted energy cost of 20 y 27

27 Results: Final energy use J. Kurnitski et al. / Energy and Buildings 75 (2014) Decoupling from energy use increase is not easy because of continuously increasing building stock First scenario S1 did not provided energy saving 28

28 Results: Primary energy use J. Kurnitski et al. / Energy and Buildings 75 (2014) Reduction of non-renewable primary energy is more difficult compared to final energy 29

29 What about the cost? Incomes for government are higher than expenditures in the case of scenarios S1 and S2 (15% and 25% renovation grants) S3 (35% renovation grants + many other measures) can be justified with job creation and stimulation of economy and export (positive effect on government budget in macro-economic analyses) Cost government, M /a Cost private s., M /a Income government, M /a Income private s., M /a Jobs created pers-y/y S S S All costs without new construction which rate was constant in all scenarios Government incomes are tax return from renovation and savings from improved indoor climate Private sector incomes: energy savings (per 1 year only) and real estate value increase 30

30 Renovation grants outcome or income for the government budget? In Estonia 520 apartment buildings have been deeply renovated with KredEx renovation grants (direct financial support of 25% or 35%) Renovation grants have enabled: 1. to start deep renovation (If not supported by the government, deep renovation would not start because of high investment cost, however economically beneficial in a long run) 2. to set technical requirements as integrated renovation packages, including to install ventilation to improve indoor climate Common thinking has been that renovation grants are lost money for the government 31

31 Data from real renovation projects Kirjeldus P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Ehitusaasta Korruselisus Netopindala, m Köetav pind, m Eluruumide pind, m Maht, m Eluruumide arv Kompaktsus, A/V, m -1 0,23 0,17 0,41 0,40 0,26 0,37 Küte, kwh/m 2 a Elekter, kwh/m 2 a Energiatõhusus-arv, kwh/m

32 Number of jobs per year, jobs-a/1m Job creation per 1M investment = Project nr 1 Project nr 2 Project nr 3 Project nr 4 Project nr 5 Project nr 6 Average In Finland Jobs created in consultancy (indirect), jobs in a/1m Jobs created in construction site (direct), jobs in a/1m Jobs created in manufacturing (indirect), jobs in a/1m

33 Percentage of the tax revenue, % Tax return (direct) = 32% Project nr 1 Project nr 2 Project nr 3 Project nr 4 Project nr 5 Project nr 6 Average Tax return from consultancy, % Tax return from construction, % Tax return from manufacturing, % Kredex subsidy

34 For the same cost in which building you want to live? Not renovated Renovated building The phenomena of deep integrated renovation: Investment cost of renovation of 160 /m 2 equals to annual repair fund collection during 20 years of 31.2 /m 2 (19% of renovation investment) for roof etc. small repairs, i.e. the total cost is the same Pikas et al

35 Conclusions It is not easy to decouple the building stock (and economy) from energy calculate scenarios before setting targets There are no alternatives for nzeb new buildings and deep, integrated renovation supported/controlled with renovation grants Estonian studies report highly significant economic benefits from renovation: quantified tax return of 32% of renovation total cost; and job creation of 18 jobs in a year per 1 M renovation cost. In EU level deep renovation rates remain a major issue to tackle Energy Efficiency target nzeb national applications available so far indicate major development need of national energy frames and methodologies and call for European guidance/harmonization to solve the problem 36