Studies Committee Meeting. Manila, 16 June 2015

Transcription

1 Studies Committee Meeting Manila, 16 June 2015

2 World Energy Trilemma Diletta Giuliani Manila, 16 June 2015

3 Launch of 2015 Trilemma report The energy sector is ready for an ambitious climate agreement and calls for an international framework with a clear measurable target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that enables fair competition and sets a clear pathway towards low-carbon energy systems. Presentation at Clean Energy Ministerial (27 May) Presentation at Canadian Energy Summit (27 May) Distribution of report among all UNFCCC / INDC national focal points

4 2015 Energy Trilemma Index Uses same methodology as in previous years Now covers 130 countries, Iraq included for first time (rank 89) Member Committees are invited to review and comment on country profiles Member Committees are invited to contribute to the assessment whether country should be on watch list Launch of the Index planned for September / October Rank Country (2014 rank) Balance 1 Switzerland (1) AAA 2 Sweden (2) AAA 3 Norway (3) AAB 4 United Kingdom (4) AAA 5 Austria (7) AAB 6 Denmark (5) AAB 7 Canada (6) AAC 8 France (9) AAB 9 Finland (8) AAB 10 New Zealand (10) ABB

5 Plans for 2016 Trilemma report New models to compensate energy companies for the services they provide are required as current market designs do not yet reflect changes in energy supply and energy technology. Suggested 2016 topic: market designs for sustainable energy Electricity Gas Carbon Transportation (fuel) Opportunities and challenges of energy only vs. not energy only (e.g. capacity mechanisms, flexibility models, hybrid models) Relevance for OECD and non-oecd countries Developed countries face a pressing issue as incumbent infrastructure ages and emission goals for the energy sector are to be met Developing countries will have a longer timeframe for implementation but still need to think about market design as they develop a roadmap for sustainable development

6 Index Trilemma report 2015 Index Timeline update Q Q Q Q Q Q nd half of 2015 Launch of 2015 Index results (TBC) Presentation of Index results at EA in Ethiopia Mid-Jun Approval of 2016 research topic by Studies Committee Mid-Mar First review opportunity for Studies Committee Mid-Apr WEC Studies Committee for final sign-off (1 week) Mid-May Launch of perspective at CEM7 meeting (TBC) 2 nd half of 2015 Review of current Index methodology Additional comments welcome NOW Identification of solutions to criticism and enhancement opportunities Discussion with group of WEC experts Test modifications to methodology Invite academic institutions to join a review board; suggestions welcome Feb-Mar Share modified methodology with academic partners Additional modifications where appropriate Apr-May Studies Committee to review and agree to modifications Jul Collect new data Sep-Oct Launch of Index 2.0 / 2016 Index (TBC)

7 World Energy Scenarios Ged Davis, Executive Chair Manila 16 June 2015

8 Following the launch of the World Energy Scenarios 2013, SSG are now focussing on the following scenario aspects Global scenarios Global trends / critical uncertainties Techno-economic innovation Socio-political development Global agenda: opportunities and risks October 2016 Regional scenarios Regional impact and sensitivities Regional market issues and priorities Energy security, trade and investment LAC Phase 2 February 2016 Country scenarios Country supply and demand Country risks and opportunities Country energy policies and strategy Business strategy and decisions

9 Deep dives focussed on issues of client strategic interest Issues of client strategic interest Energy access Energy-waterfood nexus Urban challenges Resilience LT 2060 Resources, infrastructure, funding Large hydro Bioenergy E- storage E- mobility Extreme weather events Cyber attacks, social activism Energy risks 9

10 These themes are anchored in specific regions Issues of client strategic interest Energy access Energy-waterfood nexus Urban challenges Resilience LT 2060 Resources, infrastructure, funding Large hydro Bioenergy E- storage E- mobility Extreme weather events Cyber attacks, social activism Energy risks Regional interest Themes LAC & Africa scenarios Asia & / or EU / Russia scenarios World 2060 scenarios 10

11 LAC & Africa scenarios are informed by key WEC events WEC Scenario Milestones: Issues of client strategic interest Energy access Energy-waterfood nexus Urban challenges Resilience LT 2060 Resources, infrastructure, funding Large hydro Bioenergy E- storage E- mobility Extreme weather events Cyber attacks, social activism Energy risks Regional interest 2014 WELS 2015 WELS 2015/16 WELS 2016 Congress & WELS Latin America Africa Asia & / or EU / Russia World LAC & Africa scenarios Asia & / or EU / Russia scenarios World 2060 scenarios 11

12 Work Programme 2015 Study Group: 103 members from 35 countries. Global scenario workshops 16, 17 March, London 26,27 May, London Regional scenario workshops IEC, 30 January, New Delhi, India Indaba, 16 February,Johannesburg, South Africa ADB, 16 June, Manila Philipines Regional Deep Dives Africa Scenario Phase 1 workshop, 18 March, London Progress to date: Accenture confirmed as Scenario Project partner and leading the E-mobility and Lead Author for the Gas KN. On-boarding, planning and co-ordination ongoing. WEC Jazz & Symphony scenarios included as example pathways for Global Calculator launch in London & Beijing, 30 January. Electrobras, UPME and CAF secured as funders for the LAC Scenario Phase 2 study, high level project plan compiled and discussed with Electrobras and UPME. Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and two parttime. On-boarding and training continues. Various presentations prepared for speakers at forums and conferences such as World Water Forum, Daegu; Indaba; IEC; etc. Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patron and Project Partners underway

13 Framing and research Process to deliver global scenarios Jazz & Symphony Scenarios lenses Indaba Regional worksho p India Regional worksho p Manila Regional workshop Critical issues for scenarios Other Regional workshop Develop storylines Modelling Testing Scenarios, Impacts and Key Messages Reports Sep workshop Mar workshop Jul workshop Subject matter experts Sep 2014 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Oct 2016

14 The Study Committee is required to: Approve the postponement of the Africa Scenarios Phase 1 to ensure sufficient resources are available to deliver quality LAC Phase 2 scenarios that could serve as an example of a regional scenario deep dive. It would further assist in making resources available for the global scenarios.9 Next steps Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patrons and Project Partners to be completed and analysed for global scenarios Global scenarios framing workshop Prototype global scenarios and additional research Global scenario development workshop Scoping agreement between parties on LAC scenarios Phase 2, deepening of Phase 1 work and modelling On-boarding and training of new staff and Accenture members First draft of E-mobility paper 14

15 World Energy Resources Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Executive Chair Manila 16 June 2015

16 Following the launch of The World Energy Resources 2013 publication, we are now starting to launch the next set of Knowledge Networks Project Process Overview (i) Study Group Resource- specific paper, (could be published as a Perspective ) World Energy Resources Report Knowledge Networks Resources Resource Description of topic, related issues, impact, desktop research Survey of 93 Member Committees Data verification, analyses, interpretation Implications, key messages, conclusion Chapter / Issue Paper Coal Oil Gas Peat Uranium and Nuclear Hydropower Wind Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Waste Marine Energies Energy Efficiency Technologies Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage Energy Storage

17 Work Programme Study Group: 167 members from 43 countries. Physical meetings: January, June, August & December 2014 in London March 2015 in London June 2015 in Paris Tele-Conferences with Knowledge Networks Held on hydropower, E-storage, bioenergy, waste-to-energy and gas Lead author calls took place on waste-to-energy, CCUS & E-storage Progress to date: Additional nominations received and on-boarded. Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and two part-time. On-boarding and training continues. Input and presentations for various sessions on Unconventional Gas and LNG Hydro Report with accompanying flyer, launched at the International Hydro Conference, Beijing, May. Additional MC package, press releases, articles, interviews and speeches prepared. Draft 1 Waste-to-Energy Chapter report done and reviewed, additional work needed. Accenture confirmed as Lead Author for the Gas KN, exploring possibilities for E4Tech as Lead Author for Bioenergy. Exploring options to pre-populate and automate data for each country in the Resources Survey to facilitate an easier process for the Member Committees

18 Milestones for the next months Secure lead authors for outstanding resources Explore project partner or consultants for the data processing and analysis of the Resources Survey Ensure each resource area has a relevant and useful focus area Determine most appropriate format to showcase work (report, presentation, soft copy, roadmap, flyer, infographics etc.) Continue activities and recruitment for Knowledge Networks Review Resources survey and data collection process Refine chapter structure, focus areas and presentation formats Send out pre-populated and electronic Resources Survey to Member Committees On-board and train new staff Start additional KNs and finalise individual project plans First draft Gas paper First draft E-storage paper

19 Required from the Study Committee Take note that: The Resource Survey will be sent out to Member Committees at the end of June 2015 and completed replies requested for 30 September Additional resources would be required in order to obtain, verify and analyse data deliver a quality product with credible and reliable data. 19

20 Financing Resilient Energy Infrastructure Katrina Kelly Manila, 16 June 2015

21 Financing resilient energy infrastructure Risk mitigation is about understanding the inputs and having the ability to accept the uncertainties at a project level and adapt to them Energy infrastructure needs to be continuously adaptable to the current environment Emerging risks need to be better understood: to enable the development of appropriate technical and design responses and to understand the financial implications.

22 How do we define resilient energy infrastructure? Resilience for infrastructure refers to the robustness and recovery characteristics of energy infrastructure and operations, to avoid or minimize interruptions of service in case of a hazardous event. Resilience measures for energy infrastructure are typically classified as hard or soft measures. Hard resilience: Safe-fail ; ensure infrastructure withstands sudden impacts that can affect entire system Soft resilience: Fail-safe ; Ensure infrastructure responds quickly to sudden impacts. Accepts that part of the system may go down 22

23 Work focus until 2016 Congress Cyber threats Energywaterfood nexus Investigating five risk dimensions Extreme weather Technical efficacy Social activism 23

24 Frontloaded chapter: Extreme weather findings Regional differences Adaptation options / strategy Key constraints Underlying policy and regulatory framework Impacts of extreme weather vary from region to region in terms of the type of extreme weather events, frequency of occurrence and impact on energy infrastructure. Extreme weather is any kind of weather which is severe, unusual, and not seasonal, and include, storms (wintry and tropical events), storm surges, flooding, and erosion. Comparing the last 5 years to the last 20 years, the number of extreme weather events has increased by 40%. Natural catastrophe-related losses (Swiss Re): - Asia USD 52bn - North America USD 29bn - Europe USD 16bn - LAC USD 8bn Two different approaches that are often referred to as hard - build strong enough for the system not to go down - and soft resilience - assumption the system will go down but is build flexible enough to operate again quickly. Examples of adaptation options include, strengthening of overhead transmission and distribution infrastructure, underground cabling for utilities or rerouting lines, reduced dependence on single sources of energy, early warning systems, distributed energy systems, local empowerment etc. Limited availability of data and information (climate risk assessments) to support financial modelling. Lack of reliable data and information delays development and implementation of improved design standards. Unlocking adaptation finance depends on the ability to recoup the investments made (tariffs), currently not possible. Access to viable alternatives. Technological innovation. Public acceptance of new technologies is often low. Lack of instruments for transferring weather and climate risks. Current policy and regulation focus on mitigation. They provide incentives and set standards for future. Lack of regulatory guidance on adaptation and how much resilience is enough. Without regulatory guidance increased resilience is not related to an additional revenue stream and hence less attractive for the investor. Financial regulation prevents certain investor groups from entering the market.

25 Others Energy-water-food Extreme weather Timeline update Q Q Q Q Q Q Mid-June Deadline for initial comments from Studies Committee Incorporate findings Share revised draft with MCs Early Aug WEC Studies Committee for final sign-off (1-2 weeks) Early Oct Launch of perspective at APEC event (TBC) Multi-layer review process 1. Project team 2. Knowledge Network 3. WEC Member Committees 4. WEC Studies Committees 5. Final sign-off Early Aug Share initial draft with KN, Studies Committee Early Oct WEC Studies Committee for final sign-off (1-2 weeks) End Oct Launch / Presentation at EA in Ethiopia (TBC) Next steps to be discussed at Studies Committee meeting in Ethiopia Cyber next front-loaded chapter to be released late Q For Congress work on integrated report that includes all five risk dimensions