Building Climate Resilience

Transcription

1 Building Climate Resilience Ting Pan, Sustainability Coordinator Design, Energy and Sustainability Vancouver Island Health Authority February 28, 2018

2 Presentation Overview Introduction Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Nanaimo Regional General Hospital Climate Projection Mapping Project Climate Adaptation Assessment Toolkit Extreme Heat Impact Survey Climate Change and Health Future Work 2

3 Island Health: Who We Are One of 7 health authorities in BC 765,000 people served on Vancouver Island, the islands in the Salish Sea and Johnstone Strait 3

4 Motivation BC s 2016 Climate Leadership Plan calls for 10-year emissions reduction and adaptation plans. Island Health has a 5 year emissions reduction plan. Do not have an adaptation plan. This is a first step. A climate resilient health system is one that is capable to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to climate-related shocks and stress, so as to bring sustained improvements in population health, despite an unstable climate. - World Health Organization,

5 5 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

6 Physical Impacts -Power or water outages -Inadequate HVAC -Building envelope damage -Waste or stormwater back-flows -and more 6 Disruption to health care service delivery Social Impacts -Patient surges -Longer patient stays -Strain on medical & basic supplies -Increased demand on staff & mental health impacts -and more Adapted from: Climate Risks & Impacts to Health Care Service Delivery.

7 Community Organization Facilities 7

8 Climate Vulnerability Assessment of Nanaimo Regional General Hospital Content prepared by Joe Ciarniello, Energy Manager Vancouver Island Health Authority Robert Lepage, Consultant RDH Building Science Inc. Trevor Murdock, Climate Scientist Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium

9 Introduction How important is keeping hospitals fully operational? CRITICAL NRGH - second largest hospital campus (Royal Jubilee Hospital in Victoria is the largest) Serves ~350,000 people Construction dates range from early 1960 s to ,000 m 2 floor area, 34 GWh total annual energy consumption Pilot project: to learn how to Build capacity for conducting risk assessments 9

10 Projected future temperature change in BC Different Place Variability Mitigation + Adaptation Scenarios Similar BC Building Code

11 Change in number of days >25 C 10 km x 10 km 800 m x 800 m

12 The PIEVC Protocol What is it? 12

13 13

14 Capacity Load How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure? Failure Design Capacity Safety Factor Impact of age on structure Impact of unforeseen weathering Design Load Change of use over time e.g. population growth Severe climate event 14 of 32

15 Probability of Occurrence The probability of extreme changes in climate parameters INCREASES INCREASE MEAN IN and MEAN VARIANCE Previous Current New Climate New Climate Climate More More Hot Weather Hot Weather More Record Less Cold Cold Hot Hot Weather Weather Weather COLD AVERAGE HOT Increasing Variability

16 Consequence Risk Assessment Matrix Probability of Occurrence 16 of 32

17 The Assessment of Nanaimo Regional General Hospital 17

18 Infrastructure Breakdown Infrastructure Components Sub-Systems Systems Campus Discipline Mechanical Nanaimo Regional General Hospital Structural... Cooling Plant Thermal Plant... Cooling Towers Zone 1, Pump 1 Chilled Water Pumps Chiller... Zone i, Pump j Sub-System Components

19 Risk Assessment Risk: Probability or Likelihood of an Event Occuring Consequence or Severity of Occurence Identify patterns and assess vulnerability Vulnerability: Load surpassing adaptive capacity PIEVC PROBABILITY SEVERITY SCORES Probability Severity Score Method Method D A Method Method E B 0 Negligible Negligible No Effect < 0.1% Not Applicable Not Applicable 1 Highly Unlikely Very Low Measurable 1% Improbable Some Measurable Change 2 Low Remotely Minor Possible 5% Slight Loss of Serviceability Possible 3 Moderate 10% Occasional Moderate Loss of Serviceability Somewhat Likely 4 Major Loss 20% of Major Normal Serviceability Likely 5 Loss of Capacity Serious 40% Frequent Some Loss of Function Probably 6 Major Hazardous 70% Often Loss of Function 7 Highly Probable Catastrophic Approaching Certainty Extreme >99% Loss of Asset 19 Risk Assessment

20 Severity of Occurrence Score 0 1 PIEVC SCORES Probability Method A Negligible Not Applicable Highly Unlikely Improbable 2 Remotely Possible 3 Possible Occasional Severity Method E Negligible Not Applicable Very Low Some Measurable Change Low Slight Loss of Serviceability Moderate Loss of Serviceability Somewhat Likely Normal Major Loss of Serviceability Likely Frequent Loss of Capacity Some Loss of Function Probably Often Major Loss of Function 20 Risk Assessment Probability of Occurrence 7 Highly Probable Approaching Certainty Extreme Loss of Asset

21 Probability - Climate Parameters Relied on climate scientists: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) Interpreted climate model data Focus on engineering design parameters 3 Classes of Parameters: 1. Heat 2. Moisture 3. Wind Heat: Wind: Moisture: Heat Strong Contaminated Waves Winds Waters Warmer Storm Winter Intensity Storms Winters (Ice and Storms) Frequency Cold Air Humidity Pollution Snaps (Enthalpy) (Forest fires) Daily Water Temperature Shortages Ranges Drier Flooding and Warmer Summers Warmer Sea Level Domestic Rise Water Supply 21 Risk Assessment

22 Severity Workshop Identify severity of impact on hospital operations given infrastructure component failure Gathered all experts in one room Consensus based 22 Risk Assessment

23 2 Heat waves Infrastructure Components Cooling Dry Bulb exceeds existing CSA/BCBC/ASHRAE Design of 26.8C M MECHANICAL Critical Air Systems Y/N P S R VIHA Score Consultant Score Decision Rationale For Severity Score 12 O/A intakes N Fans Y Cooling Coils Y Heating Coils N Humidification N Air Distribution Y

24 Vulnerability Trends Heat Waves, Humidity, and Water Shortages Susceptible Systems: o Mechanical Cooling Plant o Mechanical Critical Air o Water Shortages Jurisdiction 24 Risk Assessment

25 25 How to use climate data

26 Best practices Make use of climate information at whatever level of detail available Use a range of future projections Cross-disciplinary engagement Iteration, iteration, iteration

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28 Infrastructure Adaptation: Review of What it Means 28 Gain climate understanding engage climate scientists Understanding risks and vulnerabilities Prioritize the risks (Urgent to Least Urgent) Minimize the risks (engage Risk Reduction Programs) Evaluate costs and benefits to reduce risks Communicate to decision-makers Combining these provides key elements of an Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Plan and its not just for existing infrastructure

29 Acknowledgements Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Division for partial project funding: $40,000 Clinical and Facilities staff at NRGH for their time, knowledge, and active participation in the workshops David Lapp for overall guidance, support and encouragement The consulting team: 29

30 Climate Projection Mapping and Adaptation Toolkit

31 Climate Adaptation Research and Mapping Internship Grant Funded by the Pacific Institute of Climate Solutions Intern Riley Richardson Uvic Student Climate Adaptation Researcher Outcomes: Climate projection maps with Island Health facilities on them Climate variables for selected sites Climate Adaptation Assessment Toolkit customized for Island Health 31

32 Climate Adaptation Research and Mapping Pioneering work by the following organizations: For mapping Capital Regional District Cowichan Valley Regional District Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium For assessment tool development Lower Mainland Health Organizations BC Housing Canadian Coalition of Green Health Care The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 32

33 Climate Projection Mapping Latest projections more variables, higher resolution, covering more than half of Island Health owned facilities Selected 15 climate variables the most relevant to our facilities Results: Maps Climate variable values for sites 33

34 Figure 1: Historical summer days for in the South Island region. 34 Figure 2: Projected summer days for the 2050 s ( ) in the South Island region.

35 Figure 3: Historical annual cooling degree days for the South Island region averaged over Figure 4: Projected future annual cooling degree days into the 2050 s ( ) for the South Island.

36 Figure 5: Past single day maximum precipitation over for the South Island. 36 Figure 6: Projected single day maximum precipitation for the 2050 s ( ) in the South Island region.

37 1 of 15 climate variables Past Cooling Degree Days (CDD) Cooling Degree Days (CDD) Percent Change in CDD Hospitals Royal Jubilee Hospital % Saanich Peninsula Hospital % Victoria General Hospital % 37 Cowichan District Hospital % Nanaimo Regional General Hospital % Lady Minto Hospital % New Cowichan District Hospital %

38 38 Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Toolkit Involve key stakeholders at a particular site Take 2-6 hours to respond to questions related to their roles and responsibilities Cover 5 elements: 1. Climate Risks and Community Vulnerabilities 2. Land Use, Building Design and Regulatory Context 3. Infrastructure Protection 4. Essential Clinical Care Service Delivery Planning 5. Environmental Protection and Ecosystem Adaptations Excel and online versions

39 Extreme Weather Impact Surveys Intent: To understand the actual impact of extreme weather events that might increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change To illustrate the need to prepare for them To build a knowledge base in order to formulate appropriate response strategies 39

40 40 SECTION TITLE

41 Heat Waves Impact Surveys Key findings Cooling capacity is challenged. Many support services work spaces (laundry rooms, kitchens, workshops, etc.) are overheated Offices can be uncomfortably cold or hot. Productivity drops. Safety becomes a concern. Staff and volunteers suffer. Patients become vulnerable. 41 Energy use and cost increase.

42 Climate Change and Health 42 Content from Paul Hasselback, Medical Health Officer Vancouver Island Health Authority

43 Vulnerability Assessment Communicable diseases Air quality Heat and drought risks Food systems Allergen increases Extreme weather events and mental wellbeing 43

44 Communicable Disease Foodborne Marine (shellfish) Terrestrial Waterborne Drinking water Recreational water Vector borne Insect Avian 44

45 Air Quality Daily PM2.5 Levels across Vancouver Island 45

46 Heat and Drought Geographic specific assessments Most of BC expecting increase in summer temperature and duration Island, Fraser and Okanagan Valleys expecting precipitation reductions Human adaptation to heat stress takes about 2 weeks highest risk for heat related health issues. 46

47 Food Systems Traditional First Nations foods Shellfish Invasive species Quantity production (benefit or risk?) Animal stresses (livestock and heat, marine mammal water temperatures) 47

48 Allergens Pollens and spores Mold 48

49 Extreme Weather Events and Mental Wellbeing Wildfires Flooding Ice storms Hail Sea level rise Stress and anxiety Climate refugees Inequality 49

50 Next Steps for Island Health Test our climate adaptation assessment tool at our own sites Assess where and when to use the PIEVC protocol in the future Ensure new construction & major renovations use climate projections to inform design (e.g. NRGH Intensive Care Unit) Develop staff capacity to identify and implement adaptation measures Explore ways to incorporate natural systems on hospital campus Develop a 10-year adaptation plan integrated with updated mitigation plan 50

51 THANK YOU