SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Transcription

1 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: /NCLIMATE2594 COMMENTARY: Towards a new climate diplomacy Below is our analysis of the official action plans submitted to the NY Climate Summit. See Table 1 for our complete evaluation of the emissions reductions and financial pledges made in each of the 29 commitments. Africa Clean Energy Corridor - Action Statement and Action Plan - There is overlap with some countries SE4ALL, but because the overall emissions impact is rather negligible, we assume the emissions impact is counted at 100 percent. - The action plan states that implementation would reduce by 2030 up to 127 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent relative to a 2015 baseline. We therefore interpolated that the emissions reductions would be 42 tons CO2e in Agriculture - Action Statement - The intentions are to improve food security and nutrition by incorporating climatesmart approaches into agriculture of all types and all scales, in order to achieve the following three aspirational outcomes: (i) Sustainable and equitable increases in agricultural productivity and incomes; (ii) Greater resilience of food systems and farming livelihoods; and (iii) Reduction and/or removal of greenhouse gas emissions associated with agriculture (including the relationship between agriculture and ecosystems), wherever possible. Therefore, we assume no direct emissions implication or contribution to bridging the emissions gap. Aviation Action Statement - Estimated emissions impact to be 47,777,500 tco2e by 2020, given interpolated estimates. - However, the commitments pledged are not additional. The action plan states: Additional work under ICAO will be undertaken to explore the sector s long-term global goal, recognizing the aviation industry s existing goal to halve net CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels (see also Aviation Environment Federation 1 ). Aviation Action Plan - Estimated emissions impact to be 47,777,500 tco2e by 2020, given interpolated estimates. - The plan is the same as the Aviation Action Statement and does not include additional GHG reductions NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 1

2 Caring for Climate Business Leadership Criteria on Carbon Pricing - Action Statement The Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance - Action Statement Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants - Action Statements - Only two of the four initiatives mentioned under this commitment have potential emissions impact. The other two focus primarily on capacity-building efforts and do not have explicit emissions impacts. None of the commitments in this action plan have explicit financial pledges associated. Climate Information for Climate Action - Action Statement Compact of Mayors - Action Statement - No explicit financial pledges were made, although the Global Environment Facility has pledged $100 million in the context of its Integrated Sustainable Cities Initiative in conjunction with the UN Climate Summit. 2 However, none of the GEF committed funds are additional. - During the Climate Summit itself, the Compact of Mayors committed to reduce emissions by 454 MtCO2e a year starting in 2020 at the UN Climate Summit. The Compact includes over 2,000 cities and 228 with specific targets and strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. These 228 cities comprise approximately 436 million people and a little over 5 percent of the global population, according to the Compact. - This is a more conservative estimate of the emissions impact. Compact of States and Regions - Action Statement - It is likely that countries will assume the emissions reductions as part of INDCs. The additionality is therefore uncertain and questionable. - Recent analysis conducted by the Carbon Disclosure Project 3 as a first-step for the Compact of States and Regions, surveyed sub-national governments whose emissions total 750 million tons of GHG emissions. However, only 75% of 12 respondents said that they had region-wide emission targets. These targets cluster around the years 2020 and 2

3 , and vary in percentage reduction commitments of 10 percent to 80 percent reduction. Some states, like the US state of Vermont, has two emissions reduction targets in place: one for a 50% reduction in emissions by 2028, and one for a 75% reduction in emissions by 2050, based on a 1990 baseline. Divest-Invest Global Movement - Action Statement and Action Plan Energy Efficiency Accelerator Platform (SE4ALL) - Action Statement - The action plan states that implementation would reduce annual CO2 emissions by about 7 gigatonnes(gt) in We therefore interpolated what the annual reductions would be in Although the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Palau, Solomon Islands are participating in both this initiative and the SIDS Lighthouse, none of these islands are participating in the District Energy Accelerator sub-plan within the SE4ALL platform, so these is no direct source of additionality between these nation s commitments to renewable energy between these two action plans. Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture - Action Plan Global Geothermal Alliance - Action Statement and Action Plan - No work plan was provided until January 2015, so there was no explicit climate emissions impact committed, and no explicit financial Global Green Freight - Action Statement and Plan Global Investors - Action Statement Integrating Risks into the Financial System: The 1-in-100 Initiative - Action Statement - Commits to coordinating at least $100 million annual investment into public science research by the global industry from 2016 onwards. No explicit emissions reduction impacts. 3

4 International Association of Public Transport (UITP) - Action Plan - The national signatories of the UITP action plan represent regions that overlap with the areas represented under the Compact of Mayors. For this reason the emissions impacts are determined to not be additional. Low Carbon Rail Transport Challenge - Action Plan - The action plan makes specific emission reduction pledges, i.e. 50 percent reduction of emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels, and 75 percent by Estimated emissions impact to be 56,475,000 tco2e by 2020, given interpolated estimates. - However, the plan was announced prior to the UN Climate Summit in New York so is not additional. Municipal Solid Waste - Action Statement and Plan - We assume 100 percent overlap with the Global Compact of Cities efforts to reduce methane from municipal solid waste. New York Declaration on Forests - Action Statement and Action Plan - The action statement itself estimated that the result of committing to halving global deforestation by 2020 and ultimately striving to end deforestation by 2030 would result in avoiding between 4.5 and 8.8 billion tons of CO 2 e every year by The broad range of estimated emissions impact by 2030 assumes global participation in addressing deforestation. Our estimates are more conservative in that we estimate the additional emissions impact of the 32 countries who have signed on to the NY Declaration on Forests. - We used 1990 to 2011 land-use change and forestry (LUCF) emissions data from WRI s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool 4 to estimate business-as-usual (BAU) projected 2020 LUCF emissions. We used a simple linear interpolation model to estimate the annual 2020 BAU LUCF emissions to be MtCO2e. We implied reaching the 2020 goal of halving forest loss would result in a 50 percent reduction of LUCF emissions from 2020 BAU levels, or MtCO2e. - We then analyzed national climate mitigation commitments reported through UNFCCC national communications, and Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Accord pledges (see Table S1 for more details). We looked for two elements: whether countries who signed onto the NY Declaration on Forests include a forestry component (e.g., reforestation efforts, increase in forest cover) as part of their existing climate mitigation pledges; and second, what the estimated 2020 LUCF emissions are given such efforts. In total, we determined 13 countries that signed onto the NY Declaration also include reductions in LUCF emissions as part of efforts to mitigate climate change. For countries that did not estimate projected 2020 emissions and did not include forestry-related emissions 4

5 reductions as part of climate pledges, we estimated their 2020 LUCF emissions based on 1990 to 2011 data. 4 We aggregated the 2020 LUCF emissions to estimate the result of LUCF climate mitigation efforts to be MtCO 2 e. - We then subtracted the projected 2020 LUCF emissions from current climate efforts from the 2020 BAU LUCF emissions, which was MtCO2e. This number was subtracted from the target goal ( MtCO 2 e) to yield MtCO2e as the additional LUCF emissions reductions from the pledge (see Figure S1) Figure S1. The additional emissions impact resulting from the NY Declaration on Forests, taking into account overlaps between countries who include Data sources: BAU emissions estimates were derived from WRI ( 2014). 4 Estimates of the current climate efforts were based on authors own research (see Table S1). Oil & Gas Climate Initiative Announcement - Action Statement Oil and Gas Methane Partnership - Action Statement and Plan Phasing Down Climate Potent HFCs - Action Statement and Plan 5

6 The commitment explicitly states that emissions accounting and reporting remains under the UNFCCC. - We assume 100 percent overlap with national commitments. Promoting Disaster and Climate Risk Resilience Through Regional Programmatic and Risk Financing Mechanisms - Action Statement and Action Plan Resilient Cities Acceleration Initiative - Action Statement Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Lighthouses Initiative - Action Statement and Action Plan - The SIDS Lighthouse Initiative pledged to deploy 100 MW of new solar PV and 20 MW of new wind power by To translate the emissions reduction benefits of these renewable energy commitments, we used emissions factors from IEA (2010) 5 and capacity factors from NREL (2014) 6 to calculate the proposal s carbon emissions savings. - Using average on-shore wind and photovoltaic capacity factors from NREL (2014) 6 (38 percent and 20 percent respectively), we found the annual kwh production by 2020 assuming 100 percent connectivity and no curtailment. Multiplying the above emissions factor and 2020 electricity production in kwh we found implied tons of CO2e reduced and summed them to get a total of 181,044 tco2e (Table S2). - The above tco2e reduction figure is assumed to be completely additional to SIDS commitments through the UNFCCC, because these countries do not have formal mitigation requirements (i.e., they are non-annex I countries). - However, we recognize that some of SIDS have submitted nationally-appropriate mitigation action (NAMAs) plans: 4 of 18 countries have existing NAMA commitments that are potential sources of additionality: - Antigua and Barbuda communicated that it would voluntarily undertake nationally appropriate, measurable and verifiable actions aimed at further reducing its already minuscule GHG emissions by 25 percent below 1990 levels by Cook Islands set a policy goal for reaching 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2020, with a phased-in implementation plan that achieves 50 per cent by Maldives communicated that it aims to achieve carbon neutrality by Mauritius communicated that it has already embarked on a comprehensive Sustainable Development Programme as part of the Maurice Ile Durable initiative, which prioritizes renewable energy and energy efficiency. 6

7 Financial backing language is loose; only says to mobilize USD $500 million for the purposes of establishing renewable energy. Transport - Joint Action Statement - The Transport Joint Action Statement incorporates the action items for the International Association of Public Transport (UITP), the International Union of Railways (UIC), and the United Nations Human Settlement Program (UN-Habitat). These include the Urban Electric Mobility Vehicles Initiative (UEMI), UITP Declaration on Climate Leadership, and the International Railway Association (UIC) Low-Carbon Sustainable Rail Transport Challenge. In total it encompasses a commitment of 550 MtCO2e avoided in the year We assume 100 percent overlap with the Global Compact of Mayors cities, particularly with the UITP pledges, as this incorporates public transit and is mostly centered in cities. - There were no explicit financial commitments in any statement from the sector - Rail transport challenge is the only one that makes specific pledges - 50 percent reduction of emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. Urban Electric Mobility Initiative - Action Plan 7

8 References 1 Airlines pledge to halve carbon emissions by 2050 (Aviation Environment Federation, 2009).; available: /. 2 Global Environment Facility The GEF commits US$100 Million for an innovative integrated program on Sustainable Cities (GEF, 2014); available: 3 The state of play: Emissions reporting and climate action at the sub-national level (CDP, 2014); available: 4 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool 2.0 (WRI, 2014); available: 5 International Energy Agency CO 2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion (IEA, 2013); available: ghlights2013.pdf. 6 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Utility-Scale Energy Technology Capacity Factors (NREL, 2014); available: 8

9 Table S1. Evaluation of 32 countries that signed onto the New York Declaration on Forests and whether they already include LUCF offsets into existing climate mitigation pledges. Country Forests+ included+ in target? Belgium Yes *2.11 Burkina3Faso No Canada Yes Chile Yes *0.15 Colombia Yes *3.79 Costa3Rica Yes *3.70 Cote3d'Ivoire No 7.52 Dem.3Rep.3of3Congo No Annual+ emissions+ by (MtCO2e) SOURCE NOTES National3Communication.3 ed_natcom/application/pdf/bel_nc6_rev_eng.pdf This3is3based3on3LULUCF3offsets LUCF3emissions3interpolated3 ed_natcom/application/pdf/bel_nc6_rev_eng.pdf This3is3the3sum3of3public3reforesting3projects3and3private3 plantations3with3203year3projections3and3the3projection3from3 CDM3projects3based3interpolation3from3a320353horizon.3 Disaggregated,3the3breakdown3is Mt3by320303(private3 plantations),3263mt3by320353(cdm),3and mt3 (rural/water3protection).3we3summed3the3total3offsets3 together,3assumed3equal3reductions3over32010*20203and3 subtracted3this3number3from3projected3lucf3emissions3in National3Climate3Change3Strategy3(MINAET3(2009b).3Estrategia3 Nacional3de3Cambio3Climático3(ENCC)3Costa3Rica.3Ministerio3del3 Ambiente3Energía3y3Telecomunicaciones3 anism/application/pdf/costa_rica_eng_needs_report_final.pdf National3Communication3(2010).3 emissions3are3interpolated3based3on31990*20113lucf3emissions3 (WRI3CAIT,32014) Interpolated3based3on31990*20113LUCF3emissions3(WRI3CAIT,3 2014) 9

10 Denmark Yes *1.90 Dominican3Republic No 7.00 Ethiopia No European3Union No * France Yes *60.00 Germany No 0.00 Guyana Yes *7.93 Danish3National3Climate3Policy3Plan;3 energy*policy/danishclimatepolicyplan_uk.pdf This3is3an3estimate3of3uptake3of3CO23from3soils3and3forests. FCPF3Communication3(2011);3 nership.org/files/documents/pdf/jan2013/hacia%20un%20creci miento%20sostenible%20* %20El%20Plan%20DECCC%20de%20RD%20*%20Vers.pdf Interpolated3based3on31990*20113LUCF3emissions3(WRI3CAIT,3 2014) From3Climate3Action3Tracker:3"Emissions3and3removals3from3 LULUCF3are3not3included3in3the3achievement3of3the3reduction3 target;3the3lulucf3sector3is3accounted3for3under3the3kyoto3 Protocol3according3to3the3relevant3decisions3made3in3Durban.3 European3Commission3(2014) framework3for3climate3and3 However,3the3EU3target3may3account3for3the3LULUCF3 energy3policies;3however,3lulucf3included3under3kyoto;3 emissions3at3a3later3stage,3given3that3the3legislation3already3 foresees3that3accounting3rules3should3ensure3permanence3 and3environmental3integrity." annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/english_abs tract 6nc_fr[1].pdf The3report3gives3two3different3baselines3based3on3REDD3 programs3working3or3not.3it3also3does3not3presume3 mitigation3efforts3will3occur,3making3these3pledges3clearly3 contingent3on3outside3support.3the3report3says3between3 150,351,9183tonnes3and3167,598,3403tonnes3abated3 between320103and32030,3so3we3assume3equal3abatement3on3 an3annual3basis. 10

11 Indonesia Yes 1, Japan No *44.00 Kenya Yes Liberia No Lithuania No 6.70 Mexico No Mongolia Yes *1.50 Nepal No *4.78 Government3of3Indonesia3(2010).3Indonesia's3pledge3to3the3 Copenhagen3Accord.3;3 html;3emission3levels3including3lulucf3are3expected3to3reach3 2,5403MtCO2e3in32020,3with360%3of3these3coming3from3the3land3 use3sector. Ministry3of3Environment,3Japan3(MOE)3(2013).3Warsaw3Climate3 Change3Conference,3November November,32014).3 government3of3kenya;3http://cdkn.org/wp* content/uploads/2013/03/kenya*national*climate*change* Action*Plan.pdf From3Climate3Action3Tracker:3"Indonesia3proposed3to3cut3 emissions3by326%3by320203from3business*as*usual3(bau)3 levels.3the3target3was3proposed3in3september320093and3 submitted3to3the3copenhagen3accord3on3303january a3 large3proportion3of3these3reductions3would3come3from3 reducing3deforestation.3in3april32011,3indonesia3clarified3 that,3in3addition3to3its3unilateral326%3target,3it3proposes3a3 41%3reduction3below3BAU3target3conditional3to3international3 support3for3nationally3appropriate3mitigation3actions3 (NAMAs)." This3comes3from3estimates3of3expected3emissions3reductions3 from3the3kenyan3government's3national3climate3change3 action3plan. Because3data3were3lost3in3Liberia's3war3in3the3early32000s,3 the3government3insists3information3on3relevant3sectors3does3 not3exist3to3make3accurate3estimates3for3mitigation. The3national3GHG3inventory3shows3forest3emissions3 improving3every3year3by3a3negligible3amount;3in ed_natcom/application/pdf/lithuania_6_nc_1br_unfccc_v_0.1[1]. emissions3were30.117mtco2e:3 pdf;3interpolated3based3on31990*20113lucf3emissions3(wri3cait, ) NIR_2014.pdf From3national3communication:3zero3deforestation3goal3by and3lists3projects3with3potential3emissions3reducts3of MtCO23by32020,3but3these3are3not3stated3as3commitments3 (pg342/262)

12 Netherlands No 2.06 Norway Yes *24.00 Peru No Philippines No 0.12 Rep.3of3Korea No *23.00 Togo No 8.55 United3Kingdom No * ed_natcom/application/pdf/the_netherlands_nc6[1].pdf;3 Interpolated3based3on31990*20113LUCF3emissions3(WRI3CAIT,3 Report3points3out3that3forests3only3contribute310%3to3 2014) Netherlands'3land3use. Norwegian3Ministry3of3Climate3and3Environment3(2014):3Norway s3 Sixth3National3Communication,3Norwegian3Ministry3of3Climate3 and3environment;3 ml Goal3to3preserve380%3of3forest3cover3in3the3country3and million3hectares3of3forest,3but3no3specific3date3or3reduction3 target3mentioned. No3explicit3reference3to3deforestation,3though3an3explicit3 reference3to3the3philippine3strategy3for3sustainable3 development3 ( 349/philippines*philippine*strategy*sustainable*development* conceptual*framework)3which3does3include3an3action3item3on3 forests,3but3this3item's3timeline3(143yrs3out3from31990)3has3 lapsed. Republic3of3Korea3(2012).3South3Korea s33rd3national3 Communication3to3the3UNFCCC3 ( National3Communication3(2010).3 No320203forestry3commitments3in3latest3national3 communication3(2010) Department3of3Energy3and3Climate3Change3(DECC)3Report,3by3 Centre3for3Ecology3and3Hydrology,3Natural3Environmental3 In3addition3to3estimating3the3total3LULUCF3offsets,3the3DECC3 Research3Council,3April32013;3 report3also3includes3total3area3of3forest3projected3for The3National3report3notes:3"3In32013,3a3further3 9693million3 ed_natcom/application/pdf/uk_6nc_and_br1_2013_final_web* was3announced3[to3the3ifc3deforestation3fund],3increasing3 access[1].pdf33and3http://uk* the3fund3to billion"3from32011/123to32015/16.3(p314,3 air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat07/ _p rojections_of_emissions_and_removals_from_the_lulucf_secto mitted_natcom/application/pdf/uk_6nc_and_br1_2013_fina r_to_2050 l_web*access[1].pdf) 12

13 United3States3Department3of3State3(2014).36th3National3 Communication/First3Biennial3Report3to3the3UNFCCC.;3 USA Yes *6143and3*89 Viet3Nam No National3Communication3(2010),3list3of3potentail3reforestation3 projects3and3associated3carbon3reductions,3but3no3firm3 commitments3towards3an3overall3carbon3reduction3goal;3 High3degree3of3uncertainty3noted3by3Climate3Action3Tracker3 regarding3the3final3level3of3emissions3sink3in3the3lulucf3 sector3in "for3the3lower3end3of3the3range,3the3emission3 reduction3pledge3will3be3achieved.3this3means3that3using3this3 data,3the3usa3will3need3to3fully3implement3the3cap3and3reach3 the3high3end3of3sequestration3removals3in3order3to3meet3the3 pledge." "The3baseline3GHG3emission3scenario3for3LULUCF3was3built3 upon3the3viet3nam's3forestry3development3strategy3for32006* The3strategy3sets3specific3goals3to3be3reached3between and32020,3consisting3of3the3sustainable3management3of3 8.43million3ha3of3production3forests3including34.153million3ha3 of3planted3forests3and33.633million3ha3of3natural3forests,3 quality3control,3planning3and3utilization3for35.683million3ha3of3 protection3forests3and32.163million3ha3of3special3forests,3 reforestation3of30.83million3ha3in3depleted3woodlands,3and3 afforestation3for32.53million3ha3of3land."*3national3 Communication) 13

14 Table S2. SIDS Lighthouse Initiative calculation of 2020 tco2e avoided due to new installed solar and wind capacity. Calculation*and*assumptions*for*Energy*(SIDS*Lighthouse*Initiative)* Conversions and figures Source 1 metric ton CO2e= 1,000,000 grams CO2e 1 MW= 1,000 kw 1 year= 8,765 hours 741g CO2e= ton CO2e New Wind Capacity 20 MW New Solar Capacity 100 MW Wind capacity factor 0.38 % Solar capacity factor 0.20 % Wind production 66,394,875 kwh 2020 Solar production 177,929,500 kwh 2020 Wind tons reduction 49, Solar reduction 131,846 CO2e tons CO2e 14