The Environmentalist s Dilemma: Hard Energy Choices in an Era of Climate Change. NH Audubon September, 2011 Ann Ingerson

Transcription

1 The Environmentalist s Dilemma: Hard Energy Choices in an Era of Climate Change NH Audubon September, 2011 Ann Ingerson

2 Predicted effects of climate change Union of Concerned Scientists

3 Predicted effects of climate change Environment America 2007 Kancamagus Highway 3

4 Predicted effects of climate change Current Forest Types (modeled based on FIA plots) (doubling of CO2 - ~100 years) Future Forest Types (based on high emissions scenario and Hadley CM3 Climate Model) Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas 4

5 Predicted effects of climate change (end of 21 st century) Evening grosbeak Current Habitat Future Habitat Modeled from FIA data Forest Service Climate Change Bird Atlas High emissions scenario (triple CO 2 ) and Hadley CM3 Climate Model 5

6 Renewable energy sources 6

7 Energy uses US DOE, EIA

8 The climate culprit fossil energy US DOE, EIA

9 New Hampshire electricity use, generation, and exports US DOE, EIA

10 Energy development trade-offs 10

11 Potential and Sites Hydroelectricity Data: NREL and EPA 11

12 Canadian hydro Transmission Hydro Quebec 12

13 Hydro trade-offs 13

14 Woody biomass Data: NREL 14

15 Woody biomass trade-offs Energy Output per Wood Energy Content Adapted from Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Massachusetts Biomass Sustainability and Carbon Policy Study: Report to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources. Walker, T. (Ed.). NCI Brunswick, ME Biomass Electricity facility in Jonesboro, ME 15

16 Wind Resource and Sites North Country? (approx.) Granite Reliable Groton Lempster Antrim 16

17 Wind trade-offs Bicknell s Thrush Pine Marten Granite Reliable, NH Photo by Chris Martin, NH Audubon Aerial support provided by LightHawk ( Kibby Wind, Western Maine 17

18 Solar PV NREL Tracking the Sun III. 18

19 Solar trade-offs EROI* Hydro ~30:1 Wind ~18:1 Solar ~8:1 Oil shale and Tar sands~2:1 Hall and Day American Scientist *Energy Return on Energy Invested = kwh produced over equipment lifetime per kwh used for manufacture and operation 19

20 Distributed energy Cumulative Net Metering in NH WMNF Headquarters Wood Pellet CHP New Hampshire Pubic Utilities Commission, March 24,

21 GHG emissions compared Adapted from Weisser, Daniel A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies. Energy 32(9):

22 Land disturbance compared Adapted from McDonald, Robert I., Fargione, Joseph, Kiesecker, Joe, Miller, William M., Powell, Jimmie Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America. PLoS ONE 4(8): e6802. doi: /journal.pone

23 Jobs compared (person-years/gwh) Solar PV Efficiency Biomass Inland Wind Small Hydro Coal or Natural Gas Singh, Virinder and Fehrs, Jeffrey. November, The Work That Goes Into Renewable Energy. Renewable Energy Policy Project No. 13. Kammen, Daniel M., Kapadia, Kamal, and Fripp, Matthias. April 13, 2004 (corrected 1/31/06). Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? RAEL Report, University of California, Berkeley) Navigant Consulting. September, Job Creation Opportunities in Hydro Power. For National Hydropower Association Ehrhardt-Martinez, Karen and Laitner, John A. Skip. May The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market: Generating a More Complete Picture. Report Number E083. American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. 23

24 Potential % of NH electricity for major renewable technologies Solar PV* Offshore Wind Inland Wind Small Hydro Biomass Farm and Landfill Methane 20% - 2,200% 92% 25% - 50% 2% - 14% 5% - 10% 1% - 3% 24

25 Relative costs (2016) DOE EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011, December 16,

26 Other energy uses Electric vehicles Biofuels CHP Wood heat Geothermal Passive solar 26

27 Options to reduce demand Residential electricity GDS Associates

28 Options to reduce demand Residential non-electric GDS Associates

29 Saving land saves energy Location Efficiency and Housing Type, Jonathan Rose Companies, 29

30 And saving energy saves land 30

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