Renewable energy perspectives in the mediterranean countries - the Mediterranean Solar Plan. Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal

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1 Renewable energy perspectives in the mediterranean countries - the Mediterranean Solar Plan Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal

2 As of January 2012 OME Membership

3 CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD 7% of world population, 500 million people, 90 million more by 2030, nearly all in the South 10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a. average growth to % of world s primary energy demand Important energy corridor / energy hub Several challenges calling for innovative energy strategies Security of supply concerns Financial crisis and important socio-political changes Particular vulnerability to climate change and its impacts

4 BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option: Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to CO 2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up from 2200Mt currently. Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of additional capacity needed. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix and natural gas will overtake oil. High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited

5 THE REAL CHALLENGE IS IN THE SOUTH Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head. Electricity demand to multiply by 3 Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.

6 ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL Mtoe Renewables & Waste Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal CS 2030 PS 2030 The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%) Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an alternative scenario RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today

7 7 MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD TWh MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITYGENERATION South North 30% 46% 42% % 84% 70% Conservative % 58% Proactive 2030 Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.

8 ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED GW % 18% 49% 17% 16% IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 120 GW 321 GW 289 GW Non - hydro Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 13% 14% 3% 50% 6% 14% 28% 15% 6% 40% CS 2030 PS 5% 5% 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.

9 TWh Hydro 14% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION Nuclear 25% RES 6% 2010 Gas 33% Coal 14% Oil 8% 36% Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal RES electricity increased by more than 2.5 times in Renewables are expected to compete directly with natural gas as the dominant electricity source by 2030 (over 1000 TWh)

10 THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLANS

11 RE Perspectives in Morocco Wind: 2 GW in 2020 and in 2030 Solar: 2 GW in 2020 and 2030 targets to be defined PV connected to the grid: 200 MW in 2020 and 400 MW in 2030 Decentralised PV: 40 MW in 2020 and 80 MW in 2030 And also, large hydro & biomasse

12 CONCLUSIONS Substantial potential for RES in the Mediterranean, driven by decreasing costs of technologies and very favorable climate conditions Strong electricity demand growth=>role for RES-e Evolving renewable energy policy support frameworks in some countries Initiatives to improve bankability BUT obstacles to be removed: Resources assessment / Predictability Subsidies to fossil fuels/low energy prices Very diversified institutional frameworks Need for interconnections Need for innovative financing instruments and mechanisms Stronger S-S and S-N cooperation needed / capacity building, Technology transfer, exchange of best practices.

13 Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal Contact: Pedro Moraleda