Slovakia down 9% in July LNG demand incentivizes development of Trinidad s natural gas
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- Della Charles
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1 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 8: 8:45 9:3 1:15 11: 11:45 12:3 13:15 14: Prior Day s NYMEX Sep-18 Contract (CT) NYMEX NG Futures Sep (.15) Oct (.19) Nov (.23) Dec (.22) Jan (.19) Feb (.2) Mar (.2) Apr (.19) May (.19) Jun (.2) Jul (.2) Aug (.19) Sep (.18) Oct (.16) Nov (.15) Dec (.13) Jan (.14) Feb (.14) Mar (.14) Apr May (.2) Jun (.2) Jul (.2) Aug (.1) 1YR Strip (.2) (.2) 5YR Strip (.6) I N T H E N E W S Analysis: Pipeline works pull Russian natural gas flows to Germany, Slovakia down 9% in July S&P Global Platts reported: Russian flows of natural gas into Germany and Slovakia combined fell back to a five-month low in July on the back of maintenance works affecting delivery capacity into Germany, data from S&P Global Platts Analytics showed Wednesday. Total Russian deliver- 1 2 M O N T H C A N D L E S T I C K ( W E E K L Y ) Analysis: Pipeline works pull Russian natural gas flows to Germany, Slovakia down 9% in July LNG demand incentivizes development of Trinidad s natural gas ies into Germany and Slovakia combined stood at 1.16 Bcm last month, a fall of 9% when compared to June's levels but a more sedate drop of 5% on an annual basis. Flows through the Nord Stream pipeline, which delivers Russian gas directly into northeast Germany at Greifswald, were close to zero between July due to its annual shutdown. However, flows were still slightly higher than expected last month as the maintenance works were completed a day earlier than expected, coming in at 2.81 Bcm in July, down 24% on an annual basis and a more hefty 41% from June's levels. For more on this story visit spglobal.com or click LNG demand incentivizes development of Trinidad s natural gas discoveries Offshore Technology reported: Trinidad and Tobago s (T&T) total 217 natural gas output grew by an average of 262 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), representing a growth of 7.7% with respect to 216 production mainly due to two major projects, Juniper and Sercan. Upstream operators committed to spend over $1 billion in exploration and development activities over five years starting in 215. Indeed this new flow of investment is behind BHP s 216 LeClerc discovery and Victoria in July 218, both in deep water. At present the government continues to reiterate its intention to set up a subsidiary that would receive and aggregate the upstream natural gas production to then allocate it to both domestic industry and LNG consumption. For more on this story visit offshore-technology.com or click Prompt Natural Gas (NG) Daily Sentiment BEARISH RESISTANCE 2.82 & 2.85 SUPPORT 2.76 & 2.74 Trading Summary NATURAL GAS Futures Close Change NG (.15) Volume 421,955 (36,36) Open Int. 1,541,421 25,486 CRUDE AND GASOLINE Futures Close Change Crude (1.37) RBOB 2.85 (.327) Crude/NG (.36) METALS Futures Close Change Gold 1,223.7 (3.1) EQUITIES Exchange Close Change DOW 25, S&P 5-1, CURRENCY Currency Close Change EUR/USD (.1) USD/CND Contact Us Mansfield Energy Corp 125 Airport Pkwy Gainesville, GA info@mansfieldoil.com 1.25 Phone: (8)
2 W E E K L Y G A S I N U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E W I T H 5 - Y R R A N G E Release Date: July 26, 218 T R O P I C A L S T O R M A C T I V I T Y A T L A N T I C Rig Count Report Date: July 27, 218 Total Change US CN EIA Weekly NG Storage Actual and Surveys for July 27, 218 Released July 26, 218 Range (35) to (63) PIRA (29) Citi Futures (44) Reuters (31) EIA ACTUAL 24 Total Working Gas In Storage 2,273 BCF 24 BCF (LAST WEEK) (75) BCF (LAST YEAR) (557) BCF (5-YR AVG) U.S. Natural Gas Supply Gas Week 7/19 7/25 Average daily values (BCF/D): Last Year (BCF/d) Dry Production +73. Total Supply Last Week (BCF/d) Dry Production +8.5 Total Supply [NEXT REPORT ON Aug 3] U.S. Natural Gas Demand Gas Week 7/19 7/25 Average daily values (BCF/D): Last Year (BCF/d) Power Total Demand Last Week (BCF/d) Power +39. Total Demand +8. [NEXT REPORT ON Aug 3] Page 2
3 Waha Basis (platts Iferc) /31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 Month: August 218 Day Price Day Price Average (Aug) #DIV/! (through 7/31/218) Average (Jul) Average (Jun) N A T U R A L G A S B A S I S F U T U R E S, H E N R Y H U B S P O T P R I C E S, A N D F O R W A R D C U R V E CME NG Option Prices ATM Call CME NG Option Prices ATM Put Henry Hub Daily Spot Price JUL 218 JUN 218 MAY Sumas Basis (platts Iferc) NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve 2/1/219 12/1/219 1/1/22 8/1/221 1/1/222 6/1/222 11/1/222 4/1/223 9/1/223 2/1/224 7/1/224 12/1/224 5/1/225 1/1/225 3/1/226 8/1/226 1/1/ Michcon Basis (platts Iferc) /31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/ San Juan Basis (platts Iferc) Transco Zone 6 Basis (platts Iferc) 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/ Transco Zone 4 Basis (platts Iferc) 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 Month Strike Close Imp Vol Oct-18 Nov Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Month Strike Close Imp Vol Oct-18 Nov Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 NYMEX WTI Delivery Month Average ($/bbl) (Excluding Weekends and Holidays) Page 3
4 W E A T H E R H I G H / L O W T E M P E R A T U R E T O M O R R O W HIGH Temperature LOW Temperature W E A T H E R 6 T O 1 D A Y O U T L O O K N O A A Temperature Precipitation W E A T H E R 8 T O 1 4 D A Y O U T L O O K N O A A Temperature Precipitation Page 4
5 1 1 1/1/218 12/1/218 2/1/219 4/1/219 6/1/219 8/1/219 1/1/ /1/ /1/218 12/1/218 2/1/219 4/1/219 6/1/219 8/1/219 1/1/ /1/219 E T H A N E F U T U R E S, N G / E T H A N E R A T I O, P R O P A N E F U T U R E S, A N D T H E F R A C S P R E A D Ethane Futures 2.4 Ethane / Natural Gas Ratio CME Future Prices Ethane (C2) Non-LDH Mont Belvieu (cents/gallon) Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug /31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 Propane Futures 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/ /31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 Frac Spread 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 1YR Strip CME Future Prices Propane (C3) Non-LDH Mont Belvieu (cents/gallon) Sep (.1) Oct (.2) Nov (.19) Dec (.18) Jan (.17) Feb (.16) Mar (.16) Apr (.15) May (.15) Jun (.13) Jul (.11) Aug (.11) 1YR Strip.891 (.14) Page 5
6 1/1/218 2/1/219 6/1/219 1/1/219 2/1/22 6/1/22 1/1/22 2/1/221 6/1/221 1/1/221 2/1/222 6/1/222 1/1/222 2/1/223 6/1/223 1/1/223 2/1/224 6/1/224 2/1/219 12/1/219 1/1/22 8/1/221 1/1/222 6/1/222 11/1/222 4/1/223 9/1/223 2/1/224 7/1/224 12/1/224 5/1/225 1/1/225 3/1/226 8/1/226 1/1/227 1/1/218 2/1/219 6/1/219 1/1/219 2/1/22 6/1/22 1/1/22 2/1/221 6/1/221 1/1/221 2/1/222 6/1/222 1/1/222 2/1/223 6/1/223 1/1/223 2/1/224 6/1/224 1/1/224 2/1/225 6/1/225 Prompt WTI (CL) Crude Daily Sentiment BULLISH RESISTANCE & SUPPORT & FOLLOW US ON NYMEX Brent (BZ) Futures Oct (1.34) Nov (1.36) Dec (1.38) Jan (1.38) Feb (1.36) Mar (1.34) Apr (1.3) May (1.26) Jun (1.24) Jul (1.22) Aug (1.21) Sep (1.21) Oct (1.19) Nov (1.19) Dec (1.18) Jan (1.17) Feb (1.16) Mar (1.14) Apr (1.13) May (1.1) Jun (1.8) Jul (1.6) Aug (1.4) Sep (1.2) 1YR Strip 73.8 (1.3) (1.36) 5YR Strip 68.2 (.91) B R E N T C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E /31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 W T I C R U D E F O R W A R D C U R V E WTI B R E N T S P R E A D (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) (11) (12) 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 7/31/218 7/24/218 7/2/218 FRAC Spread Specifications Ethane : 42% Propane: 28% Butane: 11% 66,5 btu/g 9,83 btu/g 12,916 btu/g Iso-Butane: 6% 98,935 btu/g Natural Gasoline: 13% 115,21 btu/g Prompt NGL Futures ($/gallon) Sep-18 Butane Iso-Butane Nat Gasoline Close Change (.5) 1.27 (.1) (.1) NYMEX WTI (CL) Futures Sep (1.37) Oct (1.32) Nov (1.24) Dec (1.17) Jan (1.11) Feb (1.7) Mar (1.4) Apr (1.1) May (.99) Jun (.95) Jul (.94) Aug (.91) Sep (.9) Oct (.88) Nov (.86) Dec (.85) Jan (.84) Feb (.82) Mar (.8) Apr (.78) May (.77) Jun (.74) Jul (.71) Aug (.69) 1YR Strip (1.9) (1.28) 5YR Strip 6.24 (.65) Page 6
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