A Top Analyst: North America Heading to Energy Independence
|
|
- Magdalene Wilkins
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A Top Analyst: North America Heading to Energy Independence June 26, 2012 by Robert Huebscher Is North America on the verge of energy independence? At least one analyst thinks so. Ed Morse, a managing director of Citigroup Global Markets, said last week that by the end of this decade the US and Canada will have a surplus of oil, leaving it with no room for imports. But the longer-term picture is far less certain, as extraction moves from conventional wells to newer sources, such as deepwater fields and shale-based oil. Morse contended that oil prices rose over the last several years because of a lack of supply, brought on by the oil industry s insufficient investment over the last decade. Now, he predicted, with the development of new technologies, such as fracking, a cyclical phase of higher supply and lower prices has begun. Most of the other speakers at the Oil Supply and Demand Symposium, held in New York on June 19, viewed the decline in oil prices with gasoline now below $4.00 per gallon as temporary. Mark Lewis, a managing director in commodities research at Deutsche Bank, was among those with a less sanguine view than Morse s of the prospects for cheap oil. Oil consumption in OPEC countries is rising faster, on a percentage basis, than anywhere else in the world, Lewis noted. Those countries need oil prices of $90 to $100 per barrel to balance their internal budgets, providing an effective floor going forward that is already above the current Brent price of approximately $91 per barrel. The fundamental question is clear: Are we at the end of the era of cheap oil, or will oil prices vary cyclically, as supply and demand shift in response to varying market conditions? Economic growth is constrained by energy availability, so answering this question is critical. Let s look at the analyses presented at last week s conference. A glut of crude US production is now at 6,000,000 barrels per day, and Canadian production adds another 3,000,000 barrels daily, according to Morse, who said those numbers could increase by 10%. He also expects positive surprises from Mexico in terms of increased production. Global crude oil production (not Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 including natural-gas liquids, unconventional oil, biofuels or refinery gains) is approximately 75 million barrels per day. By 2020, Morse expects a surplus of oil in the combined US and Canadian market, the result of significant capital expenditures by the oil industry over the last decade. He also predicted an incredible slowdown in China s economy, with growth decelerating at a much more rapid rate than we think. China s investments in fixed assets, which have been the main driver of commodity demand, will slow significantly, he said. Adding to the pressure on prices is a buildup of oil inventories, Morse said, especially in Saudi Arabia, which is creating a buffer to allow for a potential disruption in supply in the event of further escalation in the conflict with Iran. The Saudis did the same thing in , to protect against disruption from the Asian crisis. Ultimately, Morse said, the US will need to reconsider its policies with respect to oil production on federal land. Export of that oil is banned, as is exporting oil that has been transported on interstate pipelines. A glut of crude will lead to calls for US to export its surplus. That glut, Morse said, will keep prices below $95 per barrel and potentially lower over the remainder of this decade. He did not say, however, whether that price was in nominal or real terms. The alternative view Lewis was more pessimistic about the potential for lower oil prices. His prediction focused on global supply and demand, rather than conditions within North America. Over the second half of the last decade, the supply of petroleum liquids (which includes oil and liquid petroleum that is the byproduct of natural gas production) rose by only 1.3% on an energy-adjusted basis, according to Lewis. Indeed, he said that production fell for four of the world s largest producers over that period: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Demand pressures will keep prices high, he said. China s demand had the largest absolute increase of any country s over the last decade, with Saudi Arabia second and India third. Demand in the Middle East comes from increased electrical consumption, as both air conditioning and desalinization technology, which is very energy-intensive, have spread widely in recent years, he said. A 5% annual growth in electricity demand would double the internal consumption of oil in the Middle East over the next decade, Lewis said. Lewis doubted whether OPEC can keep prices in check, particularly in an environment of slow global growth. He said that OPEC has a good track record of controlling prices, but only when global growth exceeds 2.5% annually. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Javier Blas, the commodities editor for the Financial Times, said that OPEC is in a strong financial position. Its revenues this year will equal those in the entire decade of the booming 1990s, and he doubted whether developments such as shale oil or deepwater drilling could really diminish its power. Blas noted that a key variable that governs oil prices is Saudi Arabia s spare production capacity. He said that the Saudis currently produce about 10 million barrels per day and could increase that by 25%, but it would take four to five weeks to bring that capacity online. Ray Leonard, a geologist who is president and CEO of Hyperdynamics Corporation, added some additional concerns about the potential for new sources of oil extraction to increase supply. Leonard said that supplies of conventional oil (which includes land-based wells and those in water at depths of less than 400 meters) peaked on a global basis in OPEC has 73% of the reserves; the rest of the world accounts for a far greater percentage of demand relative to its reserves. That imbalance, he said, will ensure ongoing volatility in oil prices. Deepwater oil (found in wells drilled at depths of more than 400 meters) is concentrated in the Atlantic Basin, Leonard said, and is unlikely to be found elsewhere, due to the geological science (plate tectonics) that that governs where oil deposits form. About half the available deepwater oil has been discovered, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Brazil, and in the basins of the Niger and Congo rivers. Production for deepwater oil will peak around 2020, Leonard said, and will rapidly fall off after that. Unconventional oil production such as natural gas liquids, heavy oil obtained from tar sands, and shale oil produced by fracking is unlikely to make up for decreases in conventional and deepwater sources over the long run. Heavy oil production, mostly from Venezuela and Alberta, is now approximately six million barrels per day, and Leonard said it could triple by Canada and Venezuela export approximately 1.2 and 1.7 million barrels per day, respectively. Production of shale oil will be a worldwide phenomenon, Leonard predicted, but he said that will take another 10 years. It is limited by well production that falls off quickly, after an initial period of high output. At $90 barrel, Leonard said shale oil will be marginally profitable. Oil and the economy Jim Hamilton, an economics professor at the University of California at San Diego, addressed the question of how oil shortages will affect global economies. A 5% decrease in the supply of oil, he said, would trigger a recession. That was the case in 1973 (the OPEC embargo), 1979 (the Iranian revolution), 1980 (the Iran-Iraq war) and 1990 (the first Gulf war). Of the 11 post-war recessions, he said that 10 were preceded by a spike in oil prices. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Hamilton cited econometric studies to show that consumer spending falls off significantly but gradually when energy prices increase. It is most evident in spending on durable goods and automobiles, and has been accompanied by a big drop in consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan surveys. About half of the slowdown in consumption at the time of the 2008 financial crisis owed to energy prices, he said, and that finding was consistent with historical data. Europe is more vulnerable to oil prices because of the weakening of the euro relative to the dollar, Hamilton said. Hamilton warned that a major conflict with Iran could have three times the impact on oil prices, as compared to the worst events (like the OPEC embargo) that have historically proved disruptive to the oil supply. Since 20% of all the world s oil goes through Iran s neighboring Strait of Hormuz, a deeper conflict with Iran could be far disruptive than, for example, the Iranian revolution and Iran s production capacity still hasn t recovered from that event, he said. No clear answers With the current focus on the sovereign debt crises in Europe, it is easy to let one s focus wander from the key role energy plays in economic growth. Steven Kopits, Managing Director with the energy advisory firm Douglas Westwood, noted that most of the energy consumption growth in China and other emerging economies came not from production increases, but from cutbacks in consumption from OECD members (the advanced economies). He referred to the OECD excluding oil producers Norway, Canada and Australia as donor countries. He noted that 85% of incremental oil consumption in the emerging markets came not from oil producers, but from a transfer of consumption from donor country consumers. The principle source of incremental Chinese oil imports is not Saudi Arabia, he noted, but the US consumer. This means the advanced economies have been and will be under chronic pressure to reduce oil consumption, with the result that their economies tend to struggle. Kopits said that the US and European economies slow as the global price of oil exceeds $90 per barrel, while China and other emerging economies can afford to pay as much as $115 per barrel. Thus, at $100 per barrel, wealth and consumption move from the West to the East. But Morse doesn t see it that way. And because cheap energy is critical to growth, especially with respect to transportation, then if Morse is correct, the US economy should fare well, at least over the next decade or so. In achieving energy independence, the US would effectively be isolated from international markets. That state of affairs would in turn create a polarized global economy; the US would prosper internally, but it would struggle to export to stagnating economies overseas. Few of the presenters addressed the longer-term supply of oil and energy, or the environmental impact of non-conventional extraction methods, such as deepwater wells and fracking. Lewis cited one interesting fact, which is that solar-generated electricity is now only about 30% more expensive than Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 oil-fired power. Improvements in solar technology or a spike in oil prices could eliminate that gap very quickly. Nuclear energy is considerably less expensive than oil today, but that is only a result of government subsidies. Morse may be right about North American energy independence, but he was also sounded a note of caution when it comes to the unpredictable nature of the energy industry. It s very difficult to anticipate change, he said. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England December 2, 25 Boston,
More informationOil Quiz: Test Your Knowledge
Oil Quiz: Test Your Knowledge Quiz: 1. United States oil production has been increasing at about 2% per year since 1960. 2. Saudi Arabia is currently the largest producer of oil in the world. 3. Each country
More informationStrategic Issues Facing the Natural Gas Industry
FINANCE COMMITTEE MEETING Denver, Colorado March 15, 2016 Strategic Issues Facing the Natural Gas Industry Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman, Petrie Partners Topics Oil Price Recovery Prospects / Implications
More informationOverview of global crude oil reserve estimates and supply patterns. Professor Wumi Iledare LSU Center for Energy studies Baton Rouge, LA 70803
Overview of global crude oil reserve estimates and supply patterns Professor Wumi Iledare LSU Center for Energy studies Baton Rouge, LA 70803 Presentation at Audubon Kiwanis Weekly Meeting Baton Rouge,
More informationChapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?
Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm? As we look at the answers to these questions, we will see that the production decline discussed in Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil? appears to be nearly immediate. Available
More informationThe following are exact quotes. Notable highlights are in Bold.
Highlights from GAO-07-283: CRUDE OIL - Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. EMBARGOED UNTIL 11:30 am Eastern
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION MAY 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA MAY 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS ON THE
More informationThomas A. Petrie, CFA Petrie Partners, Chairman
Spring Symposium Austin, TX February 10, 2017 The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Peak Oil or Peak Demand What s on the Horizon? Thriving in the New Commodity Price Dynamic Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Petrie
More informationTHE FUTURE OF OIL AND GAS LAW*
SUMMARY FOR PAPER #1 Friday, October 2 nd, 2009 (1:10 P.M.) THE FUTURE OF OIL AND GAS LAW* by Professor John S. Lowe** In the first phase of this symposium fifteen years ago, I addressed a pure legal problem.
More informationThe Doha Oil Producers Meeting and Implications
April 20, 2016 Economics The Doha Oil Producers Meeting and Implications Introduction Major oil producing countries, including OPEC and non-opec members, assembled at Doha on 17 th April, 2016 to discuss
More informationPeak Oil update. Introducing ESOP
Peak Oil update. Introducing ESOP The EIA s view of world liquid fuel supply Peak Oil matters because The flows matter Consumers need delivery flows Reserves are only useful as flows Peak oil is when flows
More informationEnergy where are we heading?
Energy where are we heading? Morningstar Investment Conference Nordic Oslo, Oct. 9, 2013 Øystein Noreng Professor Emeritus BI Norwegian Business School The Setting the World Economy Imbalances slow growth
More informationEnergy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group Founded in 2001 Current Membership is 530 We have members in 38 states and eight countries ~ 60% of our members live in Texas Mission is to help our members make money Luncheons
More informationTHE RISE OF REGIONAL OIL MARKETS UNITED STATES SHALE COULD HERALD REGIONAL OIL REVOLUTION. Bernhard Hartmann Saji Sam Bruno Sousa
THE RISE OF REGIONAL OIL MARKETS UNITED STATES SHALE COULD HERALD REGIONAL OIL REVOLUTION Bernhard Hartmann Saji Sam Bruno Sousa The United States is transforming itself into the world s largest oil producer,
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION APRIL 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA APRIL 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECAST ON
More informationInternational Index of Energy Security Risk
International Index of Energy Security Risk Assessing Risk in a Global Energy Market 2013 Edition Highlights Institute for 21st Century Energy U.S. Chamber of Commerce www.energyxxi.org Highlights This
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2010
World Energy Outlook 2010 Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director International Energy Agency Cancun, 7 December 2010, IEA day The context: A time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic
More informationOil Security Index Quarterly Update. April 2014
Oil Security Index Quarterly Update April 2014 2 Oil Security Index Quarterly Update April 2014 Oil Security Index Rankings The Oil Security Index is designed to enable policymakers and the general public
More informationWorld Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 24 November 2010
World Energy Outlook 2010 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 24 November 2010 The context: a time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over but is the recovery
More informationSpare capacity is the volume of production that can be brought on within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days.
1 2 Spare capacity is the volume of production that can be brought on within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. Major oil-supplying countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have been keeping 1.5-2 million
More informationAmerican Strategy and US Energy Independence
Cordesman: Strategy and Energy Independence 10/21/13 1 American Strategy and US Energy Independence By Anthony H. Cordesman October 21, 2013 Changes in energy technology, and in the way oil and gas reserves
More informationWeak Oil Prices and the Global Economy
Journal of Economics and Public Finance ISSN 2377-1038 (Print) ISSN 2377-1046 (Online) Vol. 2, No. 2, 2016 www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/jepf Weak Oil Prices and the Global Economy Mehdi S. Monadjemi
More informationImpact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution
National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute 18 May 215 Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow Revenge of the Oil Price Cycle American Innovation:
More informationWHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL? Benedikt Unger, February 2015
WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL? Benedikt Unger, February 2015 WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL 2 PART 1 OIL FUNDAMENTALS WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL 3 WHAT ABOUT PEAK OIL? The discussion about oil running
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-First Meeting April 18, 2015 IMFC Statement by H.E. Abdalla Salem El-Badri Secretary-General The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
More informationThe Market in The International Oil Market. The Market in The Market today. A paradigm shift
The Market in 2004 The International Oil Market A paradigm shift Presentation by Anthony D Owen Reserve Bank of Australia, 10 May 2006 Surplus production capacity dropped sharply as a result of a sharp
More informationU.S. Winning Oil War Against Saudi
1 of 7 http://onforb.es/1mjw99u James Conca Contributor I write about nuclear, energy and the environment Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. ENERGY 7/22/2015 @ 6:50AM 149,503 views
More informationWhat really causes falling productivity growth an energy-based explanation
Our Finite World Exploring how oil limits affect the economy What really causes falling productivity growth an energy-based explanation Posted on September 20, 2016 by Gail Tverberg What really causes
More informationU.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook
U.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook NCSL 2011 Energy Policy Summit: Fueling Tomorrow s Transportation John Staub, Team Lead August 8, 2011 San Antonio, Texas U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent
More informationFabio Indeo. Middle Eastern oil and gas suppliers: vulnerability factors and future challenges
Fabio Indeo Middle Eastern oil and gas suppliers: vulnerability factors and future challenges Given their huge oil reserves, Middle Eastern countries traditionally play the role of global energy suppliers,
More informationThomas A. Petrie, CFA Petrie Partners, Chairman
Dallas, TX March 1, 2017 Scoping 21 st Century Energy Geopolitics Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Petrie Partners, Chairman Topics Today s Realities Global Perspective on New Production Sources Opportunities vs
More informationFinancial Planning for an Uncertain Energy Future
Financial Planning for an Uncertain Energy Future December 16, 2014 by Richard E. Vodra Advisors hearing optimistic forecasts of plentiful new supplies of oil that may last for decades may be encouraged
More informationChallenges of Fracking for the MENA Region Martin Bachmann, Member of the Board
Challenges of Fracking for the MENA Region Martin Bachmann, Member of the Board NUMOV German MENA Conference Berlin, 26 January 2017 Simplified Model of Hydrocarbon Deposits Conventional versus Unconventional
More informationOne Year Later. An update presented to the National Petroleum Council. September 17, 2008 NPC. Global Oil and Gas Study
One Year Later An update presented to the National Petroleum Council September 17, 2008 1 The 2007 Study Questions What does the future hold for global oil and natural gas supply? Can incremental oil and
More information387th IEEJ Research Report Meeting Summary June 15, 2004
387th IEEJ Research Report Meeting Summary June 15, 2004 Recent International Political/Economic Situation and Oil Price Trends - Keynote Speech: Background Factors of the Recent Steep Rise in Oil Price
More informationOutlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry
Outlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry VMA Market Outlook Workshop San Diego, CA Spears& Associates Tulsa, OK August 2016 Oil market fundamentals remain strong World oil demand is
More informationA monthly publication from South Indian Bank. To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community...
To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community... Open YAccess www.sib.co.in ho2099@sib.co.in A monthly publication from South Indian Bank Experience Next Generation Banking
More informationLong-term Crude Oil Outlook
Volume 13 Long-term Crude Oil Outlook The Global Oil Balance - 2016-2040 ESAI Energy presents two global oil balances, one covering the period from 2015 to 2021 by year and one covering the period 2015-2040
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-5 Statement by Mr. Barkindo OPEC Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General
More information5. Empirical Results. 5.1 Event study analysis
5. Empirical Results 5.1 Event study analysis Our main empirical results of event study are presented in the following sections. Rather than report full details of the event study results, we only provide
More informationAre High Oil Prices Here to Stay? Athens, November 23 rd, 2011
Are High Oil Prices Here to Stay? Athens, November 23 rd, 2011 A presentation by Costis Stambolis, AA. Dipl. Grad. Deputy Chairman & Executive Director Institute of Energy for S.E. Europe, Athens at the
More informationfirst oil from deep offshore and remote regions, then to tar-sands, shale, and synthetic liquids from coal.
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS National security consequences of U.S. oil dependence John Deutch March 22, 2007 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA, 02139 Mr.
More informationUnconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets
Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets Guy Caruso Senior Advisor JOGMEC Seminar 7 February 2013 Landscape is Changing Even as We Sit Here Today - US Projected to reach 90% Energy Self-Sufficiency
More informationInternational Conference Global Security in the 21st Century Perspectives from China and Europe
International Conference Perspectives from China and Europe Jointly organized by KAS and Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), Beijing September 18-19, 27, Beijing Energy Supply Security: Demands
More informationOECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal
World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention
More informationU.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices James K. Jackson Specialist in International Trade and Finance 16, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS22204 Summary Imported
More informationOPEC s Dilemma The oil world cycles of
OPEC s Dilemma The oil world cycles of 2003-2023 Ray Leonard: Hyperdynamics Art Berman: Labyrinth Consulting University of Arizona Tucson, March 29, 2016 Prediction is very hard, especially about the future
More informationY376 IPE: Oil Politics. October 13, 2009
Y376 IPE: Oil Politics October 13, 2009 Oil-- Synonymous with Advanced Industrialization and Globalization Essential to industry as: Transport fuel Industrial fuel Raw material input Modern militaries
More informationAfrica in the New Oil World: The Game has Changed, But How?
Africa in the New Oil World: The Game has Changed, But How? Ray Leonard President and CEO Hyperdynamics Corporation Council for Foreign Relations February 214 Forward Looking and Other Cautionary Statements
More informationRevisiting the Role of Fossil Fuels in the APEC Region from Japan s Viewpoint
Revisiting the Role of Fossil Fuels in the APEC Region from Japan s Viewpoint Session 4: Fossil Fuels and Energy Security APERC Annual Conference 2017 May 17 th, 2017 Ken Koyama, PhD Chief Economist, Managing
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA. Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010
World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010 The context: a time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears
More information1 Are the recent oil price increases set to last? Prepared by Irma Alonso Álvarez and Frauke Skudelny
Boxes 1 Are the recent oil price increases set to last? Prepared by Irma Alonso Álvarez and Frauke Skudelny Oil prices increased from around USD 45 per barrel at end-june 217 to about USD 65 per barrel
More informationEvolving Structures of the Global Oil and Gas Industry
Strategic Advisors in Global Energy Evolving Structures of the Global Oil and Gas Industry Prepared for New America Fareed Mohamedi, Partner and Head of Markets and Country Strategies March 2011 The Oil
More informationChevron: A Focused Leader in Heavy Oil
Chevron: A Focused Leader in Heavy Oil Gary Luquette President, North America Exploration and Production May 5, 2008 JPMorgan Annual Energy Symposium: Heavy Oil Cautionary Statement CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
More information2017 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document
2017 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document March 2017 Since 2007, Roland Berger has published a yearly overview of available oil price forecasts Roland Berger study of oil price forecasts,
More informationThe price of oil. The disruption caused by the American shale oil industry. Martin Hvidt
News Analysis January 2018 The price of oil. The disruption caused by the American shale oil industry Martin Hvidt News Following the OPEC meeting decision 30 November 2017 to continue the restriction
More informationBeginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending
Our Finite World Exploring how oil limits affect the economy Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending Posted on February 25, 2014 Steve Kopits recently gave a presentation explaining our
More informationENERGY OPEC ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 1395 CHAPTER
ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 395 CHAPTER 3 C rude oil prices followed a fluctuating trend in the international market in 206, bringing the total average price of each barrel to less than 205 levels.
More informationTransportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future
Transportation Energy: Supply, Demand and the Future Edward Beimborn Center for Urban Transportation Studies University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Presentation to the District IV Conference Institute of Transportation
More informationThe Outlook for the Global LPG Market
The Outlook for the Global LPG Market International LP Gas Seminar 213 Ken Otto February 28, 212 Dai-Ichi Hotel Tokyo, Japan 212, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or
More informationTABLE OF CONTENTS OECD/IEA, 2018 OIL MARKET REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 11 1. Demand... 15 Highlights... 15 Global Overview... 16 Macroeconomic environment and prices... 18 Coming changes in bunker fuel specifications... 19 Booming demand
More informationWorld primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: an unsustainable path
OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2008-2008 The context Soaring energy prices to mid-2008, followed by a drop what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect energy demand & investment?
More informationProduction: Industry view. World Oil Reserves and. World Oil Reserves and. Kuwait Energy Company. Ray Leonard. ASPO 2007 Cork Ireland
World Oil Reserves and World Oil Reserves and Production: Industry view ASPO 2007 Cork Ireland Ray Leonard Kuwait Energy Company November 2006 Hedberg Conference November 2006 Hedberg Conference Gathering
More informationEight Pieces of Our Oil Price Predicament
Our Finite World Exploring how oil limits affect the economy Eight Pieces of Our Oil Price Predicament Posted on October 22, 2014 A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would
More informationMilken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions
Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Promotes policy and market mechanisms to build a more stable and sustainable energy future Identifies
More informationY669 IPE: Oil Politics. October 5, 2010
Y669 IPE: Oil Politics October 5, 2010 World Energy Consumption, 1965-2005, in Terawatts (TW) Top Consuming Countries, 1960-2005, in Million Barrels per Day Figure 9-5. World Consumption of Petroleum,
More informationEnergy markets the short and the long term
Energy markets the short and the long term Christof Rühl, Chief Economist, BP BP 2012 Outline The economy A year of disruptions Long term implications Conclusion Global growth: slow and on life support
More informationIndependenceVoice THE. From: MARK SPRAGUE, ITC State Director of Information Capital
THE IndependenceVoice From: MARK SPRAGUE, ITC State Director of Information Capital For the last few weeks there has been great interest in the decline in oil prices. I wanted to address the many questions
More informationLipow Oil Associates, LLC. January 3, Energy Independence: Can We Really Do It?
January 3, 2008 Energy Independence: Can We Really Do It? On December 19, 2007, President Bush signed into law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The act legislated changes in three major
More informationBritish Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences 45 OPEC countries succeeded in stabilizing oil prices between $2.50 and $3 per barrel un
British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences 44 Is This the End of Efficient Oil Markets? New Evidence Naser I. Abumustafa Director of Programs & Professor of Finance Qatar Finance and
More informationENERGY SECURITY ENERGY AND U.S. PUBLIC POLICY INSTRUCTOR: JOEL HICKS
ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY AND U.S. PUBLIC POLICY INSTRUCTOR: JOEL HICKS GLOBAL OIL MOVEMENTS GLOBAL NATURAL GAS MOVEMENTS KAYA IDENTITY Energy Intensity GDP per capita Carbon Intensity IEA World Energy Outlook
More informationThe World Commodities Market 2010
The World Commodities Market 2010 A Super Cycle: Why Today and Where Tomorrow? F. Gerard Adams University of Pennsylvania (3.11.2010) Do really believe we have enough data to make a decision? Commodity
More informationThe Unconventional Oil and Gas Market Outlook
The Unconventional Oil and Gas Market Outlook The future of oil sands, shale gas, oil shale and coalbed methane Report Price: $2875 Publication Date: July 2010 E N E R G Y The Unconventional Oil and Gas
More informationClingendael Spectator (vol.72) Item 5 of 7 ARTICLE
ARTICLE Changing crude oil trade flows and oil diplomacy Coby van der Linde EU external energy policy-making is predominantly focused on natural gas, while internal energy policy-making is focused on decarbonisation
More informationOrientation for a fast-changing energy world. Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 21 April 2014
Orientation for a fast-changing energy world Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 21 April 2014 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries
More informationENERGY OPEC ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 1391 CHAPTER
ECONOMIC REPORT AND BALANCE SHEET 39 CHAPTER 3 I n 202 and the first quarter of 203, international crude oil prices followed a fluctuating trend. A host of factors were responsible for the fluctuations
More informationLecture 1: An Introduction to the Global Energy Economy
Lecture 1: An Introduction to the Global Energy Economy James Henderson April 2017 The Economics of Energy Corporations Introduction to the Course 1. Global energy situation and current trends 2. Value
More informationENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY BULLETIN
ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY BULLETIN Vol. 3 No. 2 June 2011 Editor: Jock A. Finlayson THE NATURAL GAS STORY Both globally and in North America, natural gas is poised to play a bigger role in meeting the energy
More informationOPEC Statement to the Spring Meetings of the IMF/World Bank, April Copyright 2019 OPEC
Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty Four (G-24) Meeting of Ministers and Governors
More informationStatement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group
Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty Four (G-24) Meeting of Ministers and Governors
More informationJanuary Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist
January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23:
More informationNavigating a Path to Improved Energy Security
Navigating a Path to Improved Energy Security Louisiana Energy Conference New Orleans, LA June 12, 2014 THOMAS A. PETRIE, CFA PETRIE PARTNERS, CHAIRMAN Topics How did we get to where we are today The oil
More informationWorld Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties
World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties Nicola Pochettino Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Agency World Primary Energy Demand 7 000 6 000 Oil Mtoe 5 000 4 000 3 000 Natural gas Coal 2
More informationEnergy and Regional Economics
Energy and Regional Economics Michael Carliner International instability and possible war affect the overall US economy, and economic conditions in different regions, in a variety of ways. Changes in energy
More informationtable of contents Introducing the Oil Security Index 2 Understanding Oil Security 4 Metrics and Findings 8 Country Rankings 16
Oil Security Index october 20 Oil Secu Index 2 Oil Security Index Copyright 20 Securing America s Future Energy (SAFE). The statements and data expressed in this report reflect the views of SAFE. Although
More informationInternational Oil Prices
International Oil Prices Drivers and Outlook Presentation by Anthony D Owen Inaugural CEEM Annual Conference, 18 November 2005 Crying wolf (again!) or has the wolf arrived at the door? Oil is far too cheap
More informationeee eee ee e eeyy EsEE s Es E 6ee s ss s s s s s s s e eee ee eeeee
s k s k s k s e eee eee ee e eeyy EsEE s Es E s ss s s s s s 6ee 666666666 s s s s s e eee ee eeeee 4 4444 s s s s ss s s s s s s s e eee ee eeeee s k s k s k s 4444 e eey y6 6 e e e e ee e y e ee6 ee
More informationBBC Learning English Talk about English Insight Plus Part 6 Oil
BBC Learning English Insight Plus Part 6 Oil Jackie: Oil makes our world go round they call it black gold. It fuels our cars, runs our industries, it makes our countries work. So when oil prices go up,
More informationBlack Gold: America and Oil 9/23/08 NOTES 9/18/08 POSTED & ASSIGNMENT #4 INTER/EXTRAPOLATION & EXP. GROWTH?
Black Gold: America and Oil 9/23/08 NOTES 9/18/08 POSTED & ASSIGNMENT #4 INTER/EXTRAPOLATION & EXP. GROWTH? Questions Is America / world running out of oil? Can the US be energy-independent? U.S. Energy
More informationWhat s Up With Gasoline Prices?
America s Oil and Natural Gas Industry What s Up With Gasoline Prices? February 2013 For the latest report, please visit www.api.org/gasolineprices Table of Contents Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Oil Prices
More informationA HISTORIC SHIFT TO GOOD TIMES?
RICE GLOBAL E&C FORUM A HISTORIC SHIFT TO GOOD TIMES? Oil Pricing Outlook Alessandro Lanza, PhD Chief Economist, Eni 1 Houston, October 11, 2005 Summary Key factors in oil price dynamics Supply Refining
More informationWorld and U.S. Fossil Fuel Supplies
World and U.S. Fossil Fuel Supplies Daniel O Brien and Mike Woolverton, Extension Agricultural Economists K State Research and Extension Supplies of fossil fuel resources used for energy production vary
More informationNatural Gas. Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 4:00 PM 5:15 PM
Natural Gas Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 4:00 PM 5:15 PM Moderator: Joel Kurtzman, Senior Fellow and Executive Director of the Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions, Milken Institute Speakers: Ralph Eads,
More informationNOMADS Peak Oil Presentation Houston, Texas April 10, 2008
NOMADS Peak Oil Presentation Houston, Texas April 10, 2008 Presented by Steve Crower Energy Investment Banker Denver, Colorado 832.771.3888 Starlight Investments, LLC Agenda What is Peak Oil? My Conclusions
More information3-1. Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Market
APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow, Russia, 18 October, 2016 3-1. Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Market James Kendell Vice President, APERC Background and outline of the study Background
More informationOverview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth
Key Energy Issues to 225 The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 25 (AEO25), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could
More information2018 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document
2018 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document Amsterdam, March 2018 Since 2007, Roland Berger has published an annual review of available oil price forecasts Roland Berger study of oil
More informationEffect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy
2016/EWG52/WKSP1/003 Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Submitted by: APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Workshop Moscow, Russia 18 October 2016 APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow,
More informationOutlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry
Outlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry VMA Market Outlook Workshop Chicago, IL Spears & Associates Tulsa, OK August 2015 Million bbls/day 3.5 World Oil Demand Growth/US Oil Supply
More informationMadrid WPC Breakfast Conference 7 May Keisuke SADAMORI Director of Energy Markets and Security IEA
Madrid WPC Breakfast Conference 7 May 2015 Keisuke SADAMORI Director of Energy Markets and Security IEA OECD/IEA 2014 Oil prices ease in March, but recover in early April $/bbl 120 110 100 90 80 70 60
More information