6 th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook
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1 Session 7: APERC Research Activities 6 th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Cecilia Tam Deputy Vice President, APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
2 Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario 2
3 Mtoe APEC Total Final Energy Demand 8 7 Non-energy 6 5 Agricultural and non-specified Commercial 4 Residential 3 2 Transport Industry Energy demand rises 5% by 24, led by higher demand in transport 3
4 Mtoe Growth in Final Energy Demand compared to South East Asia Oceania Other Americas Other NE Asia Russia US China China and South East Asia account for nearly 9% of all additional demand Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) 4
5 Energy Demand - Mtoe Share in Total Industrial Energy Demand Changes in Industrial Energy Consumption APEC Industrial Energy Demand by Sector (Mtoe) 25 58% 2 56% % 52% 5% 48% increments from All other sectors All other sectors increments from 3 most energy-intensive sectors 3 most energy-intensive sectors Share of less energyintensive sectors % -5 Energy consumption in Cement and Steel decline as China s production peaks 44% 5
6 Mtoe Road Transport Energy Demand South East Asia Oceania Other Americas Other NE Asia Russia US China Road transport energy demand will peak in 23 thanks to slowing economic growth and tighter fuel efficiency 6
7 Final Energy Demand in Residential, Commercial and Agriculture Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Renewable Electricity Heat Coal Oil Gas NRE Electricity Heat AAGR(212~24) -1.56% -.16%.9% -.1% 1.99% 1.27% Electricity dominates energy use in residential, commercial and agriculture 7
8 Mtoe Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate % Fossil fuel 82% Fossil fuel Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Gas Oil Coal 2 Fuel Shares Coal 27.9% 37.5% 31.4% Oil 35.7% 28.3% 25.5% Gas 2.2% 2.2% 24.9% Hydro 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% Other Renewables 8.6% 7.2% 1.2% Nuclear 5.8% 4.6% 5.2% Natural gas demand will increase by 64% in 24 from 212 level while hydro and other renewables will increase by 82% within the same period. 8
9 APEC Energy Supply Gap Net Exporter Net Importer China Russia Other NEA US Other America Oceania SEA Mtoe Supply gap is define as demand minus production. 9
10 Mtoe Oil Demand China US South East Asia Other APEC
11 Mtoe Net Oil Imports Oceania South East Asia China US Other NEA
12 Natural Gas Demand Mtoe 11% 2% 1% 1% 2% 8% 8% 21% China Russia US 7% 1% 24% 15% Northeast Asia Other America Oceania Mtoe 38% Southeast Asia 34% 12
13 Mtoe Demand for Power to Fuel Coal Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
14 Electricity Generation By Region 14 Generation, 212 and 24 [TWh] [TWh] Russia 1 5 China Other Americas Other NE Asia SE Asia Oceania Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map. China and South East Asia drive future electricity demand in APEC United States
15 Alternative Scenarios 15
16 Energy intensity index (25 base year) APEC s Energy Intensity BAU vs Alternative % reduction target BAU Energy Intensity Index Alternative Energy Intensity Index APEC s intensity target reached ahead of schedule in 232 under the Improved Efficiency Scenario and in 236 under BAU 16
17 Mtoe Energy Savings Compared to BAU RCA saving Transport Saving Industry Saving
18 Renewables in APEC 212, 23 and 24 1 Russia 3 Other North East Asia United States China BAU-212 HR-23 HR BAU-212 HR-23 HR-24 South East Asia 25 BAU-212 HR-23 HR BAU-212 HR-23 HR-24 Hydro Wind BAU HR-23 HR-24 Oceania Other Americas 212 BAU: 761 GW 23 High Renewables (HR): GW 24 High Renewables (HR): GW Solar Other Renewables Geothermal 5 BAU-212 HR-23 HR-24 Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map. BAU-212 HR-23 HR-24 18
19 Mtoe Renewables in Transport 12 Biofuels Demand and Supply Potential - High Biofuels Bioethanol Demand Bioethanol Suppy Max Biodiesel Demand Biodiesel Suppy Max Just considering the gov t blend targets, the share of biofuels will more than double from 2.2% in the total transport demand in 21 to 6.% in 23 Mtoe Hi-Bioethanol Demand Hi-Biodiesel Demand Hi-Supply, Bioethanol Hi-Supply, Biodiesel However as only 1 st generation biofuels are assumed in the model, supply potential for bioethanol for both BAU and high supply does not meet the demand by 22 onwards. 19
20 Alternative Power Mix Scenario The scenario strives to maximize the use of clean coal, natural gas and nuclear in the electricity generation of APEC member economies To illustrate the hypothetical effects and policy implications from drastic changes in the power mix 2
21 TWh 25 Alternative Power Mix APEC s electricity generation, 212 and 24: Other RE Hydro Oil Nuclear Gas Coal Actual BAU Cleaner Coal High Nuclear High Gas (5%) High Gas (1%) Data excludes imports 21
22 Gt CO2 CO 2 Emissions in Power Sector 11 1 BAU High nuclear Cleaner coal with CCS 9 Cleaner coal no CCS High gas (5%) High gas (1%)
23 Next Steps Draft chapters finalised Sept-October Volume II (Economy Outlook) to be circulated for review end of October/early November, comments requested by end November. Volume I to be circulated for review end November, comments requested by the end of the year. Release Spring
24 We look forward to your feedback on APERC s Outlook!
25 Table of Contents of 6 th edition Vol I Part 1 APEC Demand and Supply under BAU Case Introduction Final Energy Demand Primary Energy Supply Outlook for Power Part 2 APEC Demand and Supply under Alternative Scenarios APEC Energy Intensity Goal Improved Efficiency Scenario APEC Doubling Renewable Energy Goal High Renewables Alternative Power Mix Scenario Energy Investments Implications for Energy Security and Climate Change 25
26 Table of Contents of 6 th edition Vol II Key Messages Economy Overview Business as Usual Alternative Scenarios APEC Energy intensity goal APEC Doubling renewables goal Alternative power mix Scenario Implications Energy investments Sustainable energy future Opportunities for policy action 26
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