Let's get non-technical: An economist's take on the past, the present, and the future of the industry

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1 Let's get non-technical: An economist's take on the past, the present, and the future of the industry Erkal Ersoy

2 Agenda» The market > The petroleum industry > Supply and demand > Prices and price elasticity of demand > Energy consumption and economic growth» Market control and participants > OPEC > National Oil Companies > Fiscal regimes» Producers and consumers > Distribution of production and consumption > Outlook to 2040

3 Million tonnes of oil equivalent The size of the market Global Energy Consumption by Fuel Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

4 Share of total energy consumption (%) Oil and gas market share Oil & Gas Oil

5 Share of total energy consumption (%) Oil and gas market share Oil & Gas Fluid vs. solid Transport technology Discovery/supply Economies of scale Price Oil

6 Share of total energy consumption Oil and gas market share 80% 70% Oil Gas Oil & Gas 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

7 Share of total oil consumption Oil consumption in the US Electric Power Transportation Industrial Residential and Commercial Year

8 Share of total oil consumption Oil consumption in the UK 90% 80% Industry Transport Domestic Services 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: DUKES (Digest of UK Energy Statistics)

9 Crude oil Imports & exports (thousand tonnes) UK oil production & consumption 120, ,000 Imports-Exports Imports Exports 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Source: DUKES (Digest of UK Energy Statistics)

10 Share of total gas consumption Gas consumption in the UK 70% Industry Transport Domestic Services 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: DUKES (Digest of UK Energy Statistics)

11 Million tonnes of oil equivalent Oil production by region Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia South & Central America North America Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

12 Size of the industry Value of petroleum production and trade in 2012 Crude oil production million barrels per day Price of oil $ per barrel Global production value per day 9.62 billion $ Global production value per year 3.51 trillion $ Natural gas production bcf per day Price of natural gas 10 $/tcf Global production value per day 3.25 billion $ Global production value per year 1.18 trillion $ Crude oil trade million barrels per day Price of oil $ per barrel Total value traded per day 6.18 billion $ Total value traded per year 2.25 trillion $ LNG trade Price of natural gas Total value traded per year bcm 10 $/tcf $ bn

13 Size of the industry $3.51 trillion?» 3,510,000,000,000 =

14 Size of the industry $3.51 trillion?» 3,510,000,000,000 = » Time: If we count backwards,

15 Size of the industry $3.51 trillion?» 3,510,000,000,000 = » Time: If we count backwards, > 3.51 million seconds = 41 days ago

16 Size of the industry $3.51 trillion?» 3,510,000,000,000 = » Time: If we count backwards, > 3.51 million seconds = 41 days ago > 3.51 billion seconds = 111 years ago

17 Size of the industry $3.51 trillion?» 3,510,000,000,000 = » Time: If we count backwards, > 3.51 million seconds = 41 days ago > 3.51 billion seconds = 111 years ago > 3.51 trillion seconds = 110,000 B.C.

18 Trillions of $ Size of the industry history Oil production Value of Petroleum Industry Natural gas production

19 $/bbl Oil prices Price ($/bbl - mod) Price ($/bbl $) Crude Oil Prices

20 Price dynamics supply and demand» The parrot problem» Supply the amount that a producer would make available to the market at different prices» Demand the amount that a consumer would require from the market at different prices» Both are functions of price» Shift along the curve vs. shift of the curve

21 Energy and economic development Country Population (in millions) Energy Consumption (toe per capita) United States Saudi Arabia Norway Russian Federation Netherlands France Germany Japan United Kingdom Italy Venezuela, RB Portugal China Mexico Nigeria India Bangladesh Eritrea

22 Energy and economic development Country Population (in millions) Energy Consumption (toe per capita) Real GDP per capita ($2005) United States Saudi Arabia Norway Russian Federation Netherlands France Germany Japan United Kingdom Italy Venezuela, RB Portugal China Mexico Nigeria India Bangladesh Eritrea

23 Energy and economic development

24 Energy and economic development

25 Market control» Standard Oil» Red Line Agreement» Achnacarry» OPEC

26 Standard Oil

27 OPEC» Objectives: > Restore price > Consultation on pricing issues > Mechanism for production control > Solidarity» Founding members: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela

28 OPEC oil embargo of 1973/74» In 1973, price of oil per barrel was about $17 (in 2012$).» By 1974, a barrel was $52» Indirect implications for domestic and global economies

29 Security of supply» Oil crisis of 1973/74 led to uncertainty about supply» IEA formed by members of OECD in 1974 > Members required to maintain stocks as protection against disruptions» US SPR 664 million barrels as of 6 May 2018 > million barrels of sweet and million barrels of sour > An investment of approximately $46.5 billion

30 OPEC's share of production Oil price Security of supply 60% 50% OPEC's share of production Price % 80 30% 60 20% 40 10% 20 0%

31 Economic incentives and behaviour» Price elasticity of demand > Sensitivity/responsiveness of demand to a change in price ε = %ΔQ %ΔP > ε > 1 elastic demand > ε < 1 inelastic demand > ε = 1 unit elastic demand

32 Price elasticity of demand and revenue» If demand is price inelastic, an increase in price leads to an increase in revenue» If demand is price elastic, a fall in price leads to an increase in revenue

33 National interest» Formation of National Oil Companies (NOCs)» World Bank: In 2010, NOCs accounted for 75% of global oil production and 90% of proven reserves Year Country Company 1914 United Kingdom BP 1922 Argentina YPF 1924 France CFP 1926 Italy Agip 1938 Mexico Pemex 1951 Iran NIOC 1953 Brazil Petrobras 1956 India ONGC 1960 Kuwait KNPC 1962 Saudi Arabia Petromin 1965 Algeria Sonatrach 1967 Iraq INOC 1970 Libya LNOC 1971 Indonesia Pertamina 1971 Nigeria NNOC 1972 Norway Statoil 1974 Qatar QGPC 1974 Malaysia Petronas 1975 Venezuela, RB PDVSA 1975 Vietnam Petrovietnam 1975 Canada Petro-Canada 1975 United Kingdom BNOC 1976 Angola Sonangol 2002 Equatorial Guinea GEPetrol 2006 Chad SHT

34 Fiscal regimes» Who owns the reserves? > Royalty/tax systems > Contractual systems PSA/PSC Service agreements

35 Production sharing agreements Profit Oil Royalty Cost Oil Royalty Cost Oil Profit Oil

36 Production sharing agreements Profit Oil Cost Oil Opex Capex Royalty Royalty Opex Capex Profit Oil

37 Production sharing agreements Cost Oil Profit Tax Profit Oil Government Oil Company Oil Royalty Royalty Cost Oil Government Oil Profit Tax Company Oil

38 Fiscal regimes» No equity participation, no reserves on books» Services include: > Seismic > Exploration and appraisal drilling > Wellhead services > Rig construction > Field development» Fee based on activity» Also risk service agreements

39 Share of global oil production Distribution of production & consumption in % 90% Cumulative share of production 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Countries Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

40 Share of global oil production Distribution of production & consumption in % 90% 80% 70% Cumulative share of production Top 10 producers accounted for 70% of global production 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Countries Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

41 Share of global oil production Distribution of production & consumption in % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Cumulative share of production Top 10 producers accounted for 70% of global production Top 50 producers accounted for all global production 0% Countries Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

42 Share of global oil production and consumption Distribution of production & consumption in % 90% Cumulative share of production Cumulative share of consumption 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Countries Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

43 Share of global oil production and consumption Distribution of production & consumption in % 90% Cumulative share of production Cumulative share of consumption 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% US India China Japan Top 50 consumers accounted for 97% of global consumption 0% Countries Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

44 Outlook to 2040: the role of transport Billion toe 5 Contribution to transport energy consumption growth Population growth Contribution to transport energy consumption growth Billion toe Efficiency gains 3 2 Income per head 2 Non-road* Trucks Cars** 0 Source: BP Energy Outlook

45 Outlook to 2040: the role of transport Transport energy consumption by fuel type Billion toe Other* Electricity Gas Oil Source: BP Energy Outlook 2018

46 Outlook to 2040: power generation Growth of power generation, Thousand TWh Shares of power generation, 2016 and % 80% 60% 40% Nonfossil Gas Coal & oil OECD China India & Other Asia Source: BP Energy Outlook 2018 Renewables Nuclear Gas Hydro Coal Oil Other 20% 0% OECD China India Other Asia

47 Outlook to 2040: consumption by fuel Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 20 Renewables Hydro 50% 100% Coal 15 Nuclear Coal 40% 80% 10 5 Gas Oil 30% 20% 10% Hydro Renewables 60% 40% 20% Gas Oil 0 0% Nuclear 0% Non-fossils Source: BP Energy Outlook 2018

48 Outlook to 2040: supply of liquid fuels 45% 40% Share of world liquids supply OPEC 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Saudi Arabia US crude US Russia 0% Source: BP Energy Outlook 2018

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