Mobilizing Investments for Cross Border Green Energy Infrastructure in GMS

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1 Seminar on Financing Quality Infrastructure for Long-Term Investment and Mobilizing Private Sector Capital, December 2016, Hanoi, Viet Nam Mobilizing Investments for Cross Border Green Energy Infrastructure in GMS Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia

2 Outline ASEAN- GMS Energy security and the prospects of cross-border connectivity Costs and benefits of cross-border energy connectivity in GMS Realigning financial systems for green infrastructure

3 ASEAN Today: Economic and Energy Landscape Source: ERIA (2014); ADB (2013); IEA (2013)

4 4 ASEAN in 2035: Economy and Energy Landscape Source: ERIA (2014); ADB (2013); IEA (2013)

5 Meeting the Energy Demands through Regional Connectivity ASEAN Power Grid (APG) Source: ACE, 2013

6 Current Status of ASEAN Power Interconnectivity Source: HAPUA, 2016

7 Source: FY st EIPI Presentation Material by EVN

8 Methodology for Estimating the Cost of Energy Connectivity Selection of specified routes Cost estimation for each routes including land acquisition Cost by case (Million US$) Cost by case per trade flow (US /kwh) Comparison of cost and benefit of interconnection lines Net benefit and cost by case (Million US$) Net benefit and cost by case per trade flow (US /kwh) Return on investment Line Possible cumulative net cost benefit range [mil.usd] Estimated cost of trasmission line [mil USD] A: THA-KHM 4, , ,009 second priority B: THA-LAO 19, , ,957 first priority C: THA-MYA (4,607) -- (2,766) 2, ,956 need careful assess. D: MYA-THA-MYS-SGP (1,118) -- 3,064 2, ,272 need careful assess. E: VNM-LAO-THA 21, , ,885 first priority F: MYS-IDN 3, ,087 1, ,901 second priority G: LAO-THA-MYS-SGP 23, , ,273 first priority Source: ERIA, 2015

9 Estimating the Benefits of Regional Connectivity Source: IEA-ERIA, 2015

10 Estimated Energy-related CO 2 emissions in the ASEAN region Energy related CO2 emissions will increase by over 60% by 2025

11 Benefits of Integrating Renewables into the Energy Grid Energy Security & Employment Economics & Environment TWh % Solar PV 185,000 (million US$) Status quo Case (no capacity addition after 2012) Base Case (AIMSⅡachieved) Wind Cost reduction % Geothermal 180,000 Bioenergy 175, % 10% Hydro Share of total generation (right axis) 170, ,000 5% million new jobs- direct and indirect 160, , , ,586 CO 2 regulation 900, ,000 (kt-co2) lax stric use of coal power plant increase decrease Source: IEA-ERIA, 2013 Source: ERIA, 2014

12 Costs and savings of Low Carbon Options in 2025 Reduced externalities resulting from higher deployment of renewables can amount to between % of GDP at a minimum at least 10 times higher than costs Source: ACE, 2015

13 Barriers to Hydro-Power Integration Barrier Description Regulatory and Permitting Procedures: Developing new hydro-projects can be particularly challenging from a permitting perspective because they involve navigable waters and require permission from national and provisional governments Proximity to Existing Infrastructure. The economics of hydro developments are greatly dependent on the distance of resource to transmission infrastructure Environmental Impact. Very large hydro projects in particular tend to be controversial and if they result in upstream flooding, they can have enormous impact on ecosystems Barrier Removable Measures Burdun some permitting and approval process can be overcome by pilot permitting and training programs A through resource inventory should be conducted for the sites closer to existing infrastructure should take priority over more distance ones Limiting the size and ensuring full impacts are considered vital. Employing run-of-the river technologies is one approach that limit environmental impacts. Measures to reduce impacts on fish (eg passages/ladders) shall be key.

14 Planning and Decision Making Hierarchy/Constraints General Public PM The ultimate decision maker. Guide direction of the Minister in overarching policies and legal framework Private sector Energy Minister Can change the legal framework of Renewable energy market and wields considerable power over which RET are adopted by the grids Banks/Fi nanciers Power Department Utilities Commission & Environment Ministry Make grid specific RE decisions, has authority to deny permits, if grids do not meet standards. Also decide the tariff structure Decides whether or not grid is needed, reviews environmental impacts of proposed RE projects Citizen Groups Grid Infrastructure Investors Decides what transmission and distribution projects to invest in Consum ers Power Generation Infrastructure Investors Consumers Decides what electricity generation plant to invest in and choose RE source/tech Under optimal conditions decide from whom to buy electricity or invest in own RE generation capacity Influencers Hierarchy of Decision Makers Eg of decisions that affect RE Choice

15 Private Sector Investments and Cross-Border Energy Projects Cumulative Private investment in Energy Sector from Energy Cross-border Energy Investment Investment Share Country USD Billion USD Billion % Cambodia China India Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Total Source: Bloomberg Energy Finance Source: World Bank data base

16 Challenges to Private Financing of Cross Border Green Energy Projects Internalizing environmental externalities Information asymmetry between investors and recipients Inadequate analytical capacity of issuers and investors Lack of clarity on generally accepted definition of green infra Short term horizon of investors vs long term benefits of green infrastructure projects Specific challenges to different actors - Banks: priority lending requirements, below market rate finance - Institutional investors: insufficient no of bankable projects, negligence by rating agencies - International financial institutions: inability to build coalition of green financiers, absence of shadow prices for pollutants

17 Maximizing benefits through Debt Financing Instruments Financial Characteristics General Risk Level Appropriate Debt Instrument Construction Cross border project does not generate positive cash flows. It is fundamental to structure the debt holder banks, payback period far beyond this stage High risk phase. Unexpected events are likely due to complexity in cross-border transactions, infrastructure designs, construction delays Loan financing such as bank syndicated Operation The asset deliver positive cash flow The risk of default lessens Bond financing such as green bonds, asset backed securities, project bonds

18 Million USD Inconvenient Truth of Climate Financing 40,000 35,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 10,000 5,000 2,300 0 Pledged Deposited Committed Disbursed Source:

19 Green Financing through Energy Tax Oil- Taxing Business ( $/lit ) UK Italy Germany France Japan Canada USA Crude Oil Price Industry Margin Tax Tax revenue Vs Export revenues (billion $) Tax revenues Vs. Export revenues (per barrel of oil) 1, OECD OIL TAX REVENUE ( ) OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUE OECD OIL TAX REVENUE ( ) OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUE Source: OPEC annual statistical bulletin, 2014

20 What Needs to be Done? Conduct an Overall Assessment, Optimization and Adjustment of Regional Power Connectivity Plans, to provide detailed information for public-and private decision makers about the quantity, quality and location APG and GMS master plan projects, technical standards and institutional capacities. Develop a Comprehensive Low Carbon Investment Road Map, as a strategy to show bold leadership in removing the barriers to RE integration and to make RE investments more cost effective at grid level through regulations, incentives and capacity building for taking credit risks. Earmark Financial Resources for Green Energy Connectivity, by expanding energy tax and ASEAN infrastructure fund to drive private investments with clear policy signals as well as by backing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. Establish Voluntary Principles and Monitoring Guidelines for all green finance asset classes: bank credits, bonds and secured assets.

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