IEEJ:September 2018 IEEJ2018 Long-term macro and market outlook Eirik Wæ rness, SVP a nd Chie f Economist Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo, 27 Sep
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1 218 IEEJ218 Long-term macro and market outlook Eirik Wæ rness, SVP a nd Chie f Economist Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo, 27 September 218
2 218 IEEJ218 In which direction is the energy world moving? Recent signposts show diverging paths, in terms of: Growth Efficie ncy Cooperation Technology Ge opolitics Hig her carbon price s Booming EV sa le s Re co r d solar and wind capacity Ene rgy demand up o ve r 2% in 2 17 LNG ma rke t g rowing Renewable costs dropping Iran nuclear d e a l a t risk? CO 2 emissions up US-China trade tensions Coa l dema nd up Conflicts in ME 2 Energy Perspectives 218
3 218 IEEJ218 Sce na rios In which direction is the energy world moving? Recent signposts show diverging pa ths, in terms of: Growth Efficie ncy Cooperation Technology Ge opolitics Hig her carbon price s Booming EV sa le s Policy Re co drive r d n Globa l cooperation Fa st capacity tra nsition 2 target Ene rgy demand up o ve r 2% in 2 17 Renewal solar and wind LNG ma rke t g rowing Re form Renewable costs dropping Current trends a nd policy dire ction Market and Te chnology drive n Iran nuclear NDCs d e a l a t risk? Riva lry CO 2 emissions US-China trade tensions Ge opolitica l vola tility Boom upand bust cycles Destructive ma rke t rule La ck of cooperation Coa l dema nd up Conflicts in ME 3 Energy Perspectives 218
4 218 IEEJ218 What are common b e lie fs about the future? Global demand for energy dependent goods, services, and a ctivitie s is growing The world is undergoing an energy transition Large investments needed in the energy system 4 Energy Perspectives 218
5 218 IEEJ218 How will economic growth and energy demand develop? Energy efficiency drives a wedge between economic development and energy demand World GDP and energy demand Inde x, 199 =1 Energy intensity Inde x, 199 =1 5 4 GDP Energy demand Reform Renewal Rivalry Re fo r m Renewal Riva lr y 5 Energy Perspectives 218
6 218 IEEJ218 Growth in position of new renewa bles a nd electricity a cross a ll scena rios Sufficient speed and scope only in Renewal fossil fuels keep their share in Rivalry World energy demand per fuel shares Total final consumption per fuel shares % 1% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % % Coal O il Gas Nucle a r Bio ma ss Hyd r o New Renewables Coal O il Gas Bio ma ss New Renewables He a t Ele c t r ic it y 6 Energy Perspectives 218
7 218 IEEJ218 Sig nifica nt fuel mix cha ng e s in a ll Ind ustria l AP sce na rios Industrial AP energy demand per fuel Billion toe Total final consumption per fuel Billion toe % -4% %.6-5% -35% -3% Coal O il Gas Nucle a r Bio ma ss Hyd r o New Renewables Coal O il Gas Bio ma ss New Renewables He a t Ele c t r ic it y 7 Energy Perspectives 218
8 218 IEEJ218 Will the energy tra nsition a ffect CO 2 emissions? Yes, but only Renewal shows a sustainable development and there is an urgent need for action World energy -related CO 2 emissions Billion tons Energy-related CO 2 emissions per region Billion tons Reform Renewal Rivalry North Ame rica Other Americas European Union Indust r ia l Asia Pa c ific China Ind ia Rest of World 8 Energy Perspectives 218
9 218 IEEJ218 Strong e le ctricity d e ma nd g rowth in a ll sce na rios Generation mix develops very differently; solar and wind growing strongly Electricity demand by sector Thousand TWh Electricity generation change Thousand TWh Electricity generation mix shares % 4 Ref 8% 3 2 Ren 6% 4% 1 Riv 2% % Industrial Residential Commercial Transport Other Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal 9 Energy Perspectives 218
10 218 IEEJ218 Ele ctricity d e ma nd re ma ins fla t or g rows mod e ra te ly in Ind ustria l AP Generation mix develops very differently; solar and wind growing strongly Electricity demand by sector Thousand TWh Electricity generation change Thousand TWh Electricity generation mix shares % 2. Ref 8% Ren 6% 4%.5 Riv 2% % Industrial Residential Commercial Transport Other Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal 1 Energy Perspectives 218
11 218 IEEJ218 Massive changes in road transport e fficie ncy a nd fuel mix But less certain what is the alternative to oil in shipping and aviation Fleet mix for LDVs Million Fleet mix for trucks Million Fuel mix for non-road Million toe Diesel Gasoline Hybrid PHEV EV Other Diesel Gasoline Hybrid EV Other Oil Gas Biomass Electricity 11 Energy Perspectives 218
12 218 IEEJ218 Massive changes in road transport e fficie ncy a nd fuel mix Ind ustria l AP But less certain what is the alternative to oil in shipping and aviation Fleet mix for LDVs Million Fleet mix for trucks Million Fuel mix for non-road Million toe Diesel Gasoline Hybrid PHEV EV Other Diesel Gasoline Hybrid EV Other Oil Gas Biomass Electricity 12 Energy Perspectives 218
13 218 IEEJ218 Tra nsition moving slowe r in other se ctors No silver bullet, efficiency and electrification the primary measures Industrial demand TFC Million toe Residential and commercial demand TFC Million toe Non-energy demand TFC Million toe Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Oil Gas 13 Energy Perspectives 218
14 218 IEEJ218 Growth or decline in oil and gas demand growth determined by scenario Transport key sector for oil, and power for gas; non-energy demand important for both growth irrespective of scenario Change in oil demand by sector mbd Change in gas demand by sector bcm Ref Ref Ren Ren Riv Riv Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Road Aviation & shipping Non- Energy Other Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Road Aviation & shipping Non- Energy Other 14 Energy Perspectives 218
15 218 IEEJ218 Benchmarking: How do Energy Perspectives scenarios compare? TPED, oil and gas Global total primary energy demand Billion toe Global oil demand mbd Global gas demand bcm Reform Renewal Rivalry NPS SDS CPS Exxon BP DNV GL Source: World Energy Outlook 2 17, DNV GL ETO 2 18, Exxon Outlook 2 18, BP Outlook Energy Perspectives 218
16 218 IEEJ218 Benchmarking: How do Energy Perspectives scenarios compare? Electricity generation and solar/wind Global electricity generation and solar/wind share Thousand TWh and % share of mix % 7 6 6% 5 4 4% 3 2 2% EP 18 Reform EP 18 Renewal WEO 17 NPS WEO 17 SDS Statkraft 218 Low Emissions Scenario EP 18 Reform EP 18 Renewal BNEF NEO 18 DNV GL ETO 18 Shell Sky % Share solar and wind (rhs) 16 Energy Perspectives 218
17 218 IEEJ218 What is the need for new oil investments? Large investments in all scenarios, although significantly less in Renewal Oil demand and supply from existing fields Million ba rre ls pe r da y Cumulative oil supply gap 215-5, compared Billion ba rre ls Cumula tive oil supplygap Cumula tive supply Demand range De cline ra ng e Legacy supply 25 USA Opec Re form Renewal Riva lry Rivalry add- on Reform add- on Renewal add- on Potential legacy supply Source: IEA and BP (history), Equinor (p roje ctions) 17 Energy Perspectives 218
18 218 IEEJ218 And what about new gas supply? Large investments in all scenarios, although significantly less in Renewal Gas demand and supply from existing fields Billion cubic me te rs Cumulative gas supply gap 215-5, compared Trillion cubic me te rs 5 4 Demand range 1 8 Cumula tive gas supplygap Cumula tive supply De cline ra ng e Legacy supply 25 USA Russia Middle East Re form Renewal Riva lry Reform add- on Rivalry add- on Renewal add- on Potential legacy supply Source: IEA and BP (history), Equinor (p roje ctions) 18 Energy Perspectives 218
19 218 IEEJ218 Enormous investments needed in solar, wind and batteries Large investments to grow and maintain solar/wind capacity; battery market to expand by 1 to 35 times by 23 Solar and wind annual capacity additions GW Annual battery demand GWh Capacity replacement New wind New solar LDV Other transportation Electricity storage Buses and trucks Electronics and machinery So urce : Va rious sources (history), Equinor (p roje ctions) 19 Energy Perspectives 218
20 218 IEEJ218 Eirik Wæ rness Senior vice president and Chief economist Equinor ASA This presentation, including the contents and arrangement of the contents of each individual page or the collection of the pages, is owned by Equinor. Cop yrig ht to a ll ma te ria l includ ing, b ut not limite d to, writte n ma te ria l, p hotog ra p hs, d ra wing s, ima g e s, ta b le s a nd d a ta rema ins the property of Equinor. All rights reserved. Any other use, reproduction, translation, adaption, arrangement, alteration, distribution or storage of this presentation, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Equinor is p rohib ite d. The informa tion conta ine d in this presentation may not be accurate, up to date or applicable to the circumstances of any particular case, despite our efforts. Equinor ca nnot a cce p t a ny lia b ility for a ny ina ccura cie s or omissions.
21 218 IEEJ218 Tra nsition moving slowe r in other se ctors Ind ustria l AP No silver bullet, efficiency and electrification the primary measures Industrial demand TFC Million toe Residential and commercial demand TFC Million toe Non-energy demand TFC Million toe Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Oil Gas 21 Energy Perspectives 218
22 218 IEEJ218 Declining oil and gas demand in Industria l AP Transport key sector for oil and power for gas; non-energy demand important for both growth irrespective of scenario Change in oil demand by sector mbd Change in gas demand by sector bcm Ref Ref Ren Ren Riv Riv Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Road Aviation & shipping Non- Energy Other Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Transport Non- Energy Other 22 Energy Perspectives 218
23 218 IEEJ218 Sig nifica nt fuel mix cha ng e s in a ll Asia sce na rios Asia energy demand per fuel Billion toe Total final consumption per fuel Billion toe % 56% % % 55% % Coal O il Gas Nucle a r Bio ma ss Hyd r o New Renewables Coal O il Gas Bio ma ss New Renewables He a t Ele c t r ic it y 23 Energy Perspectives 218
24 218 IEEJ218 Strong e le ctricity d e ma nd g rowth in Asia Generation mix develops very differently; solar and wind growing strongly Electricity demand by sector Thousand TWh Electricity generation change Thousand TWh Electricity generation mix shares % 2 Ref 8% 15 1 Ren 6% 4% 5 Riv 2% % Industrial Residential Commercial Transport Other Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal 24 Energy Perspectives 218
25 218 IEEJ218 Massive changes in road transport e fficie ncy a nd fuel mix Asia But less certain what is the alternative to oil in shipping and aviation Fleet mix for LDVs Million Fleet mix for trucks Million Fuel mix for non-road Million toe Diesel Gasoline Hybrid PHEV EV Other Diesel Gasoline Hybrid EV Other Oil Gas Biomass Electricity 25 Energy Perspectives 218
26 218 IEEJ218 Tra nsition moving slowe r in other se ctors Asia No silver bullet, efficiency and electrification the primary measures Industrial demand TFC Million toe Residential and commercial demand TFC Million toe Non-energy demand TFC Million toe Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Gas New Renewables Electricity Oil Biomass Heat Coal Oil Gas 26 Energy Perspectives 218
27 218 IEEJ218 Strong prospects for oil and gas demand in Asia Transport key sector for oil and power for gas; non-energy demand important for both growth irrespective of scenario Change in oil demand by sector mbd Change in gas demand by sector bcm Ref Ref Ren Ren Riv Riv Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Road Aviation & shipping Non- Energy Other Industrial Buildings Power & Heat Transport Non- Energy Other 27 Energy Perspectives 218 Contact :report@tky.i
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