4/14/2011. THE NEW NORTH Four Forces Shaping Our Northern Future NOTICE

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Smith University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) Department of Geography Department of Earth & Space Sciences CUAHSI live webinar, April 14, 2011 CUAHSI live webinar, April 14, 2011 The Four Forces:

1 NOTICE The graphics, illustrations, and photographs in this presentation are copyright-protected and may not be reproduced in any form. THE NEW NORTH Four Forces Shaping Our Northern Future Laurence C. Smith University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) Department of Geography Department of Earth & Space Sciences CUAHSI live webinar, April 14, 2011 CUAHSI live webinar, April 14, 2011 The Four Forces: 1. Demographics (urbanization, migration, fertility, aging) 2. Natural Resources (projected demand, known and likely reserves, geography, accessibility) 3. Globalization (trade deregulation, multi-national corporations, NAFTA, global data-sharing) 4. Climate Change (greenhouse gas loading; projected temperature increases, expected impacts) The Assumptions: No Silver Bullets No World War III No Hidden Genies* The Models Are Good Enough* *relaxed in Ch. 9 World Population (Billions) Low variant 3 Medium variant 2 High variant Time (Source: United Nations Population Division) 1

World electricity generation: today Coal 40% Natural gas 20% Oil 7% Hydro 16% Nuclear 15% Wind 1% Solar 0% World electricity generation: today 2050 Coal 40% Natural gas 20% Oil 7% Hydro 16% ~9-14%

2 World electricity generation: today Coal 40% Natural gas 20% Oil 7% Hydro 16% Nuclear 15% Wind 1% Solar 0% World electricity generation: today 2050 Coal 40% Natural gas 20% Oil 7% Hydro 16% ~9-14% Nuclear 15% ~8-38% Wind 1% ~2-17% Solar 0% ~0-13% World electricity generation: today 2050 Coal 40% ~52% (3X) Natural gas 20% ~21% (2X) Oil 7% Hydro 16% ~9-14% Nuclear 15% ~8-38% Wind 1% ~2-17% Solar 0% ~0-13% projected water demand projected water demand (WATERGAP simulations data courtesy J. Alcamo and M. Flörke, University of Kassel) (WATERGAP simulations data courtesy J. Alcamo and M. Flörke, University of Kassel) 2

3 (Nature, 2010) Figure SPM.5 (IPCC AR4, 2007) April, 2006 (courtesy J. Rasmussen) (courtesy J. Martell) 3

4 Science, 2005 Nature, 2003 Science, 2005 Nature, th century (IPCC AR4, 2007 ) Relative runoff changes in the 20th century ( ) Milly et al., Nature,

21st century Relative runoff changes in the 21st century (2041-2060) Milly

, Nature, 2005 Science, 2002 JGR, 2007 Rising low-flows in Siberian rivers

20 th century: 6 Now confirmed in North America as well: 6 4 4 trend (mm/32

(Smith , JGR, 2007) trend (mm/32 -4-6 no. gauging stations -4-6 no.

5 21st century Relative runoff changes in the 21st century ( ) Milly et al., Nature, 2005 Science, 2002 JGR, 2007 Rising low-flows in Siberian rivers also suggest an increased mobilization of groundwater sources in the late 20 th century: 6 Now confirmed in North America as well: trend (mm/32 yr) rising low -flow s falling low -flow s (Smith et al., JGR, 2007) trend (mm/32 yr) rising low -flow s falling low -flow s -4-6 no. gauging stations -4-6 no. gauging stations (Rennermalm et al., Climate Dynamics, 2010) (Port of Churchill) 5

6 (Adapted from AMSA, 2009) (Adapted from AMSA, 2009) (Hay River, N.W.T) (courtesy V. Romanovsky) 6

ACCESSIBILITY Accessibility Change GAINS (2000-2014) &

higher vessels Land: 2000 kg or higher gross vehicle weight

2000-2014 (CCSM3 A1B) November 2000-2014 average Travel

2045-2059 average (Scott Stephenson, UCLA) (Scott

(2008, 2009) Estimate that 13% of the world s undiscovered

There is simply Arctic, no comparable mostly offshore

space water w ith such ambiguous ow nership, such a

7 ACCESSIBILITY Accessibility Change GAINS ( ) & LOSSES (2045- BY MID-CENTURY 2059) Ocean: Type A rating or higher vessels Land: 2000 kg or higher gross vehicle weight (Scott Stephenson, UCLA) Travel Time to Nearest Settlement (CCSM3 A1B) November average Travel Time to Nearest Settlement (CCSM3 A1B) November average (Scott Stephenson, UCLA) (Scott Stephenson, UCLA) U.S. Geological Survey CARA Assessments (2008, 2009) Estimate that 13% of the world s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas may be in the There is simply Arctic, no comparable mostly offshore historical in under 500 example of a meters saltw ater of space water w ith such ambiguous ow nership, such a dramatically mutating seascape, and such extraordinary economic promise. Without U.S. leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. (courtesy L. Brigham) (Gautier et al., 2008, 2009) 7

8 Without U.S. leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. -S. Borgerson, Foreign Affairs (2008) There is simply no comparable historical Military competition example of is a saltw likely ater to space increase while w ith such there appears little opportunity ambiguous for diplomatic ow nership, such resolution a dramatically of the disputes. mutating seascape, and such extraordinary economic promise. Without -Jane s Intelligence U.S. Review (2008) leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. A Mad Scramble for the Shrinking Arctic -The New York Times(2008) (courtesy TASS-ITAR News Agency, Moscow) Without U.S. leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. -S. Borgerson, Foreign Affairs (2008) Without U.S. leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. -S. Borgerson, Foreign Affairs (2008) There is simply no comparable historical Military competition example of is a saltw likely ater to space increase while w ith such there appears little opportunity ambiguous for diplomatic ow nership, such resolution a dramatically of the disputes. mutating seascape, and such extraordinary economic promise. Without -Jane s Intelligence U.S. Review (2008) leadership the region could erupt in an armed mad dash for its resources. A Mad Scramble for the Shrinking Arctic -The New York Times(2008) There is simply no comparable historical Military competition example of is a saltw likely ater to space increase while w ith such there appears little ambiguous ow nership, such a dramatically UNCLOS opportunity for diplomatic mutating seascape, Article resolution and such 76 of the disputes. extraordinary economic promise. Without -Jane s Intelligence U.S. Review (2008) -leadership the Ilulissat Declaration region could erupt (2008) in an armed mad dash for its resources. - Moscow convention (2010) A Mad Scramble for the Shrinking Arctic - Norway/Russia -The dispute New York settled Times(2008) (2010) 8

9 9

10 Potential tar sands oil endowment: 264 billion (Saudi Arabia) 175 billion barrels? (Canada) 115 billion (Iraq) 102 billion: (Kuwait) 99 billion (Venezuela) 79 billion (Russia) 7.5 billion (Norway) (courtesy D. Dodge) (courtesy D. Dodge) Potential tar sands oil endowment: 264 billion (Saudi Arabia) 175 billion barrels?(canada) 115 billion (Iraq) 102 billion (Kuwait) 99 billion (Venezuela) 79 billion (Russia) 7.5 billion (Norway) Potential tar sands oil endowment: 264 billion (Saudi Arabia) 175 billion barrels?(canada) 115 billion (Iraq) 102 billion (Kuwait) 99 billion (Venezuela) 79 billion (Russia) 7.5 billion (Norway) Anticipated production: today 1.3 m bbl/day m bbl/day m bbl/day (~10X North Slope) (courtesy D. Dodge) (courtesy D. Dodge) SOME MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION, PEACEFULNESS, AND CIVIL LIBERTIES, RELATIVE TO THE WORLD SOME MEASURES OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION, PEACEFULNESS, AND CIVIL LIBERTIES, RELATIVE TO THE WORLD economically globalizing? Peaceful? --polit. freedom?-- WSJ/Heritage EFW KOF Globalization GPI EIUDI Freedom House AVG (1-5) Denmark free 96 Canada free 95 Finland free 93 Iceland free 92 Norway free 91 Sweden free 91 USA free 81 Russia not free 34 Germany free 89 U.K free 88 Japan free 84 France free 78 Brazil free 50 India free 42 China not free economically globalizing? Peaceful? --polit. freedom?-- WSJ/Heritage EFW KOF Globalization GPI EIUDI Freedom House AVG (1-5) Denmark free 96 Canada free 95 Finland free 93 Iceland free 92 Norway free 91 Sweden free 91 USA free 81 Russia not free 34 Germany free 89 U.K free 88 Japan free 84 France free 78 Brazil free 50 India free 42 China not free 37 10

11 SOME POPULATION TRAJECTORIES, 2010 TO 2050 country density (people/km2) change (%) India 369 1,214,464,000 1,613,800, Canada 3 33,890,000 44,414, USA ,641, ,932, Iceland 3 329, , Norway There is simply 13 no comparable 4,855,000 historical 5,947, United Kingdom example of 255 a saltw ater 61,899,000 space w ith 72,365,000 such Mexico ambiguous 57 ow nership, 110,645,000 such a dramatically 128,964,000 Sweden mutating seascape, 21 and 9,293,000 such extraordinary 10,571, Spain 90 45,317,000 51,260, economic promise. Without U.S. Brazil ,423, ,512, China leadership the 141 region 1,354,146,000 could erupt 1,417,045,000 in an Netherlands armed mad 401 dash for its 16,653,000 resources. 17,399, Finland 16 5,346,000 5,445,000 2 Denmark 127 5,481,000 5,551,000 1 Italy ,098,000 57,066,000-5 South Korea ,501,000 44,077,000-9 Germany ,057,000 70,504, Russia 8 140,367, ,097, Japan ,995, ,659, SOME POPULATION TRAJECTORIES, 2010 TO 2050 country density (people/km2) change (%) India 369 1,214,464,000 1,613,800, Canada 3 33,890,000 44,414, USA ,641, ,932, Iceland 3 329, , Norway There is simply 13 no comparable 4,855,000 historical 5,947,000 United Kingdom example of 255 a saltw ater 61,899,000 space w ith 72,365,000 such Mexico ambiguous 57 ow nership, 110,645,000 such a dramatically 128,964,000 Sweden 21 9,293,000 10,571,000 mutating seascape, and such extraordinary Spain 90 45,317,000 51,260, Brazil economic promise. 23 Without 195,423,000 U.S. 218,512, China leadership the 141 region 1,354,146,000 could erupt 1,417,045,000 in an Netherlands armed mad 401 dash for its 16,653,000 resources. 17,399, Finland 16 5,346,000 5,445,000 2 Denmark 127 5,481,000 5,551,000 1 Italy ,098,000 57,066,000-5 South Korea ,501,000 44,077,000-9 Germany ,057,000 70,504, Russia 8 140,367, ,097, Japan ,995, ,659, (U.N. Population Division, med. variant) (U.N. Population Division, med. variant) (courtesy The Toronto Star) (courtesy The Toronto Star) (Sanikiluaq, Nunavut) 11

12 THE PUSH global pressures from: rising urban population and prosperity rising natural resource, hydrocarbon demand globalized business model and workforce water stress rising temperatures, coastal hazards, droughts, floods species extinctions and biodiversity loss THE PUSH global pressures from: rising urban population and prosperity rising natural resource, hydrocarbon demand globalized business model and workforce water stress rising temperatures, coastal hazards, droughts, floods species extinctions and biodiversity loss THE PULL northern attractors from milder winters rising biomass and biodiversity water abundance rising maritime access (but not land) resource and hydrocarbon development highly globalized economies secure, peaceful borders some favorable demographics (esp. Canada) resurgent indigenous populations (esp. Canada) perceptions THE PULL northern attractors from milder winters rising biomass and biodiversity water abundance rising maritime access (but not land) resource and hydrocarbon development highly globalized economies secure, peaceful borders some favorable demographics (esp. Canada) resurgent indigenous populations (esp. Canada) THE PUSH global pressures from: rising urban population and prosperity rising natural resource, hydrocarbon demand globalized business model and workforce water stress rising temperatures, coastal hazards, droughts, floods species extinctions and biodiversity loss THE NEW NORTH Thanks for listening THE PULL northern attractors from milder winters rising biomass and biodiversity water abundance rising maritime access (but not land) resource and hydrocarbon development highly globalized economies secure, peaceful borders some favorable demographics (esp. Canada) resurgent indigenous populations (esp. Canada) 12

13 The Assumptions: No Silver Bullets No World War III No Hidden Genies The Models Are Good Enough The Four Forces: 1. Demographics (urbanization, migration, fertility, aging) 2. Natural Resources (water, energy, metals, geography, accessibility) 3. Globalization (trade deregulation, multi-national corporations, NAFTA, global data-sharing) 4. Climate Change (greenhouse gas emissions; projected impacts, abrupt climate change*) 13

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