Strategic Grid Network Study

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1 Strategic Grid Network Study To adapt to the uncertainty of future load and generation To identify the critical power corridors and constraints on the transmission network Unlock and create a flexible and robust grid to be able to respond to the changing future needs of the country The 2040 Transmission Network Study was undertaken to determine the development requirements of the future transmission grid to accommodate the expected load demand needs and the potential impact of future generation scenarios using the 2010 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a baseline.

2 The Three Generation Scenarios The IRP 2010 base Scenario (BASE IRP) 2010 IRP extended to 2040 Coal fixed at 2030 level Balance in similar ratio to 2030 mix Increased Renewables Scenario (GREEN) Replaced nuclear component with RE base generation equivalent CSP (with storage)/ Wind with CCV of 30% / Natural Gas Increased Imports Scenario (IMPORT) Doubled imported power by 2030 Reduced coal & nuclear New draft IRP Update was reviewed and found that above scenarios still appropriate and 2040 Study results and findings are applicable

3 Organisations already engaged Within ESKOM: Generation Primary Energy department Gas & Liquid Fuel department Group Capital Project Development department Distribution Nuclear Department Strategy & Risk Management Transmission Outside ESKOM: SAWEA SASTELA SAPVIA CEF Solar Park Project Stellenbosch University Govt. Departments DPE DOE DEA DWAF DAFF DPW Southern African Energy

4 2040 Network Study Generation Resource Map Energy resources for electricity Gx GAS CSP Solar F Gas K Solar D Gas F Solar B Solar A Gas A Gas I Solar C Gas H Gas G Solar E Gas B Gas C Gas D Gas E Wind Nuclear Wind G Wind A Coal Wind H Wind F Wind E Wind B Wind D Wind C Nuclear A Nuclear C Nuclear B Dominate future Gx resources

5 Allocation of Load Demand 77% Load 77% Load 23% Load 23% Load Maps show the expected relative Load Demand for each area for 2020 and 2040 No significant changes in load centres just rapid growth in certain existing centres

6 Mapping the Demand and Generation - + Spatial Location of Load Spatial location Generation Load Gx Excess / Deficit

7 Comparing Demand Balances for each Generation Scenario Marginal scenario difference for the TDP period

8 SGP Tx 2040 Study Corridor Overview 7000 SKA

9 csp 6 city pv 10 PV 13 wind 2 36

10 23% Load 77% Load Existing +/- 37 GW 1.8 Nuc 0.6 Hy 3.4 OCGT 0.6 PS 1 PV 0.6 Wind

11 23% Load 77% Load +/- 37 GW 6 city pv 9 csp 10 PV 13 wind 1.8 Nuc 0.6 Hy 0.6 PS 3.4 OCGT 4.6 OCGT 4 CCGT 1 PV 0.6 Wind

12

13 Processes Renewable Access Key Process Overview Grid Development RFI (A) Bid (B) Preferred Bidder (C) Bankable (D) Construction (E) 1 st Grid (F) Full power (G) Technical Studies(A) Governance (Tech & Fin) (B) EIA (C) Land & Right (D) Construction (E) Commissioning(F) Full power (G) Back bone integration Local integration IPP Programme RFI (A) Bid (B) Preferred Bidder (C) Bankable (D) Construction (E) 1 st Grid (F) Full power (G) Grid Studies Trigger Ministerial determination Trigger BQ acceptance / Compliance EIA + L&R Time +/- EIA + L&R Back bone Time +/- A B C D E F G 1yr Local AB C D E F G 1yr 2yr 1yr 3yr Grid A B C D E F G 2yr 1yr 1yr 1yr 3yr

14 Strategic Unlocking of Renewable Access Strategic Unlocking Implementation Time 14

15 Strategic Investment in Grid Access & Power transfer Local Grid Access Market information Corridor Grid Access On time expansions 15

16 Transmission Expansion impact on tariff MYPD3 Transmission expansion Transmission impact on tariff 16

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