THE MEDIUM TERM SURGE IN US OIL SUPPLY: A GAME CHANGER

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1 THE MEDIUM TERM SURGE IN OIL SUPPLY: A GAME CHANGER 9 THE WORLD IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE AN OIL SUPPLY GLUT UNTIL, with the largest suppliers being and the In its short term outlook, the Energy Information Administration forecasts that the current supply glut will continue through with s market share unchanged and a slight increase for the. On the demand side, the largest consuming group of countries will be the and the largest single consumer will be, making a market mover for oil Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply and Demand (In Million Barrels per Day, -) (%) (%) (%) (9%) (%) (%) (9%) (%) (%) (9%) (%) (%) Supply Demand Source: Short Term Energy Outlook, EIA, Jan. Looking Ahead

2 THE HAS OVERTAKEN SAUDI ARABIA AS THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCER, with the s increased production since offsetting supply disruptions in other countries The s steady increases in shale oil production since have made up for production losses in Iran, Libya, Syria and Yemen, countries where production has been hampered by political turmoil and security concerns. Originally, the Energy Information Administration had expected the would overtake Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producer in. The EIA now says that already happened, in. Saudi Arabia is expected to recover its position as the top oil producer by around Top Seven Current and ed Oil Producers (In Million Barrels per Day and In Rank,,, and ) Estimated to have overtaken in () Key Supply Changes in Oil Production (In Million Barrels per Day Change from Q, Q - Q ) Countries Production Change - - Net Change Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q -. Net Change Iran Libya Syria Yemen Saudi Arabia Note: () Data from the EIA International Energy Statistics shows that the has already overtaken Saudi Arabia in Source- Upper Chart: World Energy Outlook, IEA, Source- Lower Chart: EIA Statistics Looking Ahead

3 POLITICAL TURMOIL IN COUNTRIES RESTRICTS THEIR CRUDE PRODUCTION making the a more dominant supplier Iraq is the member with the most capacity to grow, but its expansion is at risk because of geopolitics, the International Energy Agency has said. With Iran and Libya, two other important members, likewise boxed in by politics, the has moved to a position of greater prominence. At least in the short to medium term, the will remain a large player and is likely to replace Saudi Arabia as the quasi swing producer Iraq, Iran and Libya Crude Production Capacity Projections () (In Million Barrels per Day, -9) IRAQ Saudi Arabia 9 IRAN UAE 9 LIBYA 9 Qatar Estimates Estimates Comparative (next in line) Countries Crude Production Capacity based on Estimates Note: () Projections are based on much higher oil prices than early market values. However, given s decision in November to preserve market share and not resort to production cuts, these estimates might still be valid Source: Oil Medium-Term Market Report, IEA, Looking Ahead

4 IN THE LONG TERM, PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE with shale production outside the less likely to materialize and oil production decreasing The will continue to dominate oil production for the time being, even with lower prices, because it could be as much as a year before production adjusts. However, Middle Eastern producers shares will increase again by, according to BPs outlook report. Seconding this prediction, the Energy Information Administration projects a decrease in production starting as early as, particularly if prices look like they will stay below the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $ per barrel in (the so-called low price scenario). The future of shale and tight oil outside the remains uncertain and unlikely to yield the same growth as that seen within the Regional Tight Oil Resources and Production (In Billion Tonne of Oil Equivalent, and -) Remaining Technically Recoverable Resources Cumulative Production Pacific North America South and Central America Africa Europe and Eurasia Middle East Petroleum and other Liquids Production by Scenario () over Time ( Production In Million Barrels per Day and Share of World Production In %, -) Production 9 Share of World Production 8 Production (Low Oil Price) Share of World Production (Low Oil Price) Production (Reference) Share of World Production (Reference) Note: () Low oil price scenario assumes a Brent crude price of $ per Barrel in compared to $ per Barrel in the reference case both in dollars Source- Upper Charts: Energy Outlook, BP, (based on IEA data) Source- Lower Chart: International Energy Outlook, EIA, Looking Ahead

5 CHINA WILL OVERTAKE THE AS THE LARGEST OIL CONSUMER BY and by itself will exceed the combined demand of the Middle East and Eastern Europe/Eurasia regions Growing demand for oil will come from emerging markets, particularly and India. will see its demand overtake the s in, before plateauing between and. India will have the largest oil demand growth through, making it into the thirdlargest oil consuming nation by far. The s demand for oil will decline starting in, though its total demand will still exceed that of Latin America and Africa combined in. Demand from countries will decrease, with European demand falling the most Oil Demand over Time in Large Consuming Countries () (In Million Barrels per Day, 99, and -) CAGR (In %, -) India. Brazil Russia Japan Regional Equivalence of the Large Consuming Countries () (In Share of Global Consumption and In Equivalence, ) Americas Europe Oceania Middle East E. Europe/ Eurasia Latin America Africa Note: () Based on the IEA new policies scenario which assumes a continuation of existing policies while measuring a cautious implementation of policy proposals Source- Upper and Lower Charts: World Energy Outlook, IEA, Looking Ahead

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