Solar process heat: the IEA scenarios Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

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1 Solar process heat: the IEA scenarios Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency SHIP 2015 Montpellier 15 September 2015 OECD/IEA 2015

2 TWh Strong momentum for renewable electricity Global renewable electricity production, historical and projected Historical data and estimates Forecast 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Natural gas Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind Nuclear 2013 Offshore wind Solar PV 2013 Geothermal STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis) Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

3 EJ %renewable heat Renewable heat use grows slowly World final renewable energy use for heat (including commercial heat) World renewable energy use for heat rose ~1.5% per year between 2007 and 2013 ~2.5% per year for modern technologies. Global renewable energy use for heat is projected to grow from ~46 EJ in 2013 to ~49 EJ in 2020 (~1% per year). Use of modern renewable energy technologies for heat continues to grow from ~14 EJ in 2013 to ~18 EJ in 2020 (~3% per year), providing 9% of world final energy use for heat in Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report Geothermal Solar thermal Bioenergy (modern) Bioenergy (traditional) RE-H%of total heat (right axis) Modern RE-H%of total heat (right axis) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Policy support still limited Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of

4 Policy support still limited Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Broader adoption of support policies for renewable heat could reduce energy consumption and enhance energy security Low oil prices likely more detrimental to renewable heat Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

5 But stakes are high Direct energy-related CO 2 emissions from industry second to power (2014) OECD/IEA

6 Fossil fuels dominate industrial energy use Final industrial energy supply by sources Final energy demand by sub-sectors OECD/IEA

7 Solar heat for industry is not a new concept 1907, Egypt (Shuman) 2014, Morocco (Italcementi)

8 Solar heat for industry is not a new concept 1949, France (F. Trombe)

OECD/IEA, 2011 Markets: industry PJ Estimated industrial heat demand by temperature range in Europe, 2003 Source: Werner, 2005-2006 OECD/IEA 2010 Large heat needs at

9 OECD/IEA, 2011 Markets: industry PJ Estimated industrial heat demand by temperature range in Europe, 2003 Source: Werner, OECD/IEA 2010 Large heat needs at various temperature levels in industry and services; Low-temp. solar heat available everywhere, demand all year round High-temp. solar heat under hot and dry climates IEA/OECD 2010

10 Solar water heaters in a service area (Austria) Cooking with Scheffler dishes (India) Source: AEE INTEC. Experimental mid-size industrial solar oven (France) Source: Deepak Gadhia Solar air drying of coffee beans (Columbia) OECD/IEA 2010 Source: Four Solaire Développement. Source: SolarWall. IEA/OECD 2010

11 Solar ovens for artworks Potteries from Safi (Morocco) cooked in the solar oven at Mont-Louis (French Pyrenees) OECD/IEA 2015

Roadmap vision of solar heating and cooling 8.9 EJ/a 7.2 EJ/a 1.5 EJ/a 0.4 EJ/a Solar heating and cooling capacity could produce annually by 2050: - 16.

12 Roadmap vision of solar heating and cooling 8.9 EJ/a 7.2 EJ/a 1.5 EJ/a 0.4 EJ/a Solar heating and cooling capacity could produce annually by 2050: EJ solar heat (16% of TFE low temp. heat) - Of which, >7 EJ of low-temp. solar industrial process heat EJ solar cooling (17% of TFE cooling) Source: IEA Technology Roadmap Solar Heating & Cooling OECD/IEA 2015

13 EJ EJ Mt CO2 Global industrial direct CO 2 emissions and final energy use DS NOTE: Direct energy related and process CO 2 emissions from the industrial sector are included 4DS 2DS DS: DS: DS: 2050 World OECD Developing Asia DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Non-OECD America Economies in Transition NOTES: Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock. Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart Africa Middle East Bio&Waste Heat Electricity Gas Oil Coal

14 Global industrial final energy use mix 6DS: 2050 Heat 4% Electricity 24% Bio&Waste 7% Coal 36% % 80% 60% 40% Biomass Gas Oil Heat 4% Bio&Waste 9% Electricity 29% Gas 19% Coal 28% Oil 11% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Pchem feedstock Biomass Gas Oil Coal Gas 18% Oil 11% 20% NOTES: In this presentation, Industrial final energy excludes energy embedded in petrochemical feedstock. Bio & Waste also includes other renewable sources apart from biomass. 0% Pchem feedstock Coal Heat 4% Bio&Was te 17% Electricit y 33% Coal 22% Gas 15% 2DS: 2050 Oil 9% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Pchem feedstock Biomass Gas Oil Coal

15 Iron & Steel sector: Renewable main options Charcoal based Blast Furnaces Electric Arc Furnaces based on renewable electricity Iron ore reduction supported with hydrogen from renewable sources Renewable based captive utilities 2,5 2,0 Direct CO 2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS Energy efficiency GtCO 2 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Natural gas - DRI Recycling (increased scrap use) Innovative processes Biomass&Waste Heat Electricity Gas Oil 0% DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Coal World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies in Transition Africa Middle East

16 Cement sector: Renewable main options Fuel switching Renewable based captive utilities GtCO 2 Direct CO 2 emission savings 2DS vs 6DS 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0, Energy efficiency Fuel switching Clinker substitutes Innovative processes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Biomass&Waste Heat Electricity Gas Oil Coal World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies in Transition Africa Middle East

17 Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector: Renewable main options Biomass based routes for olefins production (e.g. bioethanol route, MTO route) Biomass based routes for ammonia and methanol production Ammonia and methanol productions supported by renewable based hydrogen Renewable based captive utilities Final energy use mix in Chemicals/Petrochemicals sector (excl. feedstocks) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Biomass&Waste Heat Electricity Gas Oil Coal World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies in Transition Africa Middle East Petrochemicals feedstocks mix 100% 80% 60% Biomass Gas 40% Oil 20% 0% DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Coal World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies in Transition Africa Middle East

18 Pulp & Paper sector: Renewable main options Bio-refinery developments: biomass based routes for chemicals and fuels production Renewable based captive utilities 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: DS: 2050 Biomass&Waste Heat Electricity Gas Oil Coal World OECD Developing Asia Non-OECD America Economies in Transition Africa Middle East

g CO2/kWh Non-energy intensive industrial sector: Renewable main options Industrial operations based on renewable electricity Renewable based captive utilities (e.g.

19 g CO2/kWh Non-energy intensive industrial sector: Renewable main options Industrial operations based on renewable electricity Renewable based captive utilities (e.g. opportunities for solar thermal for lower temperature heat demand applications and possible upgrade through heat pumps) DS DS DS

20 Renewable energies for manufacturing industries REMI Workshop, May 2015, IEA, Paris OECD/IEA 2015

21 A new in-depth technology study Manufacting industries use ~ 30% of global energy 40% including feedstock, blast furnace and coke oven Fossil fuels energy sources, feedstock, processing agents Some CO 2 emissions linked to processes (e.g. steel, cement) Demand would grow until 2050 by 83% in the 6DS scenario (ETP 2014) By 40% in the 2DS scenario Some substitution would occur Biomass would grow from 6% to day to 13% in 2050 (2DS) Electricity would grow from 24% today to 32% in 2050 (2DS) OECD/IEA

For energy, feedstock, process agents Using biomass, solar heat, geothermal

22 How to increase the use of RE in industry? How to increase the use of RE as in 2DS or beyond? For energy, feedstock, process agents Using biomass, solar heat, geothermal Hydrogen from renewables (mostly) Renewable power, self-generated or from the grid Electrification of industry help integrate more variable RE OECD/IEA

To conclude where are the largest solar thermal systems Princess Nora Bint Abdul Rahman University in Riyadh 2011-12: University buildings, Riyadh, KSA, 25 MW th, 36 000 m 2 2013: Copper recovery,

23 To conclude where are the largest solar thermal systems Princess Nora Bint Abdul Rahman University in Riyadh : University buildings, Riyadh, KSA, 25 MW th, m : Copper recovery, Pampa Elvira, Chile, 27 MW th, m : District heating, Vojens, Denmark, 37 MW th, m : Industry, Mirrah, Oman, 1021 MW th, 3 million m 2 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

24 Mirrah, Oman, forthcoming Parabolic troughs protected from soiling Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 in a greenhouse (Glasspoint technology)

25 Mirrah, Oman, forthcoming 6000 t steam per day for enhanced oil recovery saving 1600 GWh th gas, and tco 2 a year Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

26 For more information The IEA Technology roadmap for solar heating and cooling: The IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Initiative: Task 49 of the Solar Heating and Cooling Initiative (common with the SolarPACES Initiative): The Solar Heat for Industrial Processes database: Renewable Energies for Manufacturing Industries: Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

CST after COP-21 A global perspective. Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

CST after COP-21 A global perspective Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency ASTRI Workshop, Melbourne, 2 May 2016 COP21 a historic milestone Universal agreement on: GHG