The role of Underground Storage in Spain s Gas System

Transcription

1 The role of Underground Storage in Spain s Gas System 6 th Meeting of the UNECE Gas Centre Task Force Group on Supply, Infrastructure and Markets Paris, 26 April

2 Contents 1. Demand evolution in Spain 2. Supply evolution in Spain 3. Infrastructures in Spain 4. Underground storage commercial management 2

3 Demand evolution in Spain Turnover Gas natural demand Penetration renewables Spain s GDP Evolution Conventional Demand 2010: +10% Conventional Demand 2011: -0,8% Coal share in electricity production Power Demand 2010: -16% Power Demand 2011: -19% Source: Enagas Turnover, wind power and domestic coal policies main drivers for decrease of natural gas demand in Spain 3

4 Demand evolution in Spain Power generation mix Electricity demand growth has been covered by renewable energies and CCGT: CCGTs: higher efficiency and more environmentally than any other fossil fuel Renewables: attractive regulatory framework GWh GWh 300, ,000 Renewables 200, , ,000 Conventional 50, Hydro Nuclear Coal Fuel/gas CCGTs Wind power Other Renewables Thermal generation room is decreasing continuously 4

5 Source CNE CCTG gas consumption (TWh) Demand evolution in Spain Power generation mix. Domestic coal Security of supply regulation supporting domestic coal With new coal regulation Without new coal regulation x3 Hydro range Source: CNE Coal Real Decree, has had a significant impact in gas power generation 5

6 Source: REE Source: Enagas Source: REE Demand evolution in Spain Power generation mix. Wind Differences of MW in 5 days: (equivalent to 25 CCGT) High intermittency of wind power generation th march th march 2009 Over MW disappears in hours (equivalent to 11 CCGT)... has a clear impact in gas power demand Decrease of MW in a few hours Increase x6 in a few hours 16 th dec 2010 Wind power generation Conventional + CCGT Conventional 16 th dec 2010 CCGTs are acting as a back up power source, increasing the requirement for flexibility and reliability Gas power demand 6

7 01/11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/2012 Demand evolution in Spain Conventional demand. Domestic demand Demand deviation over the previous month forecast is significant GWh/d Forecast Pattern Actual Values GWh/d 600 Forecast Pattern Actual Values Winter Winter deviation GWh/w Monthly deviation GWh/m Daily deviation 300 GWh/d Winter Winter deviation Monthly deviation Daily deviation GWh/w GWh/m 200 GWh/d 500 Conventional demand also requires short term flexibility to face the differences between reality and forecasts 7

8 Demand evolution in Spain Conventional demand. Domestic demand GWh/mes GWh/mes ene feb marmonthly abr may junvariability jul ago sep oct nov dic demanda promedio Domestic demand has a significant variability through time and a high volatility during the year Annual profile x 2,5 + 62% x % ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic GWh/día Flexibility is key 0 GWh/día ene feb mar abr Daily may jun volatility jul ago sep oct nov dic Demanda Máxima Demanda Promedio Demanda Mínima Daily variability + 44% + 267% GWh/d (4-5 mar 08) +80 GWh/d (4-5 dic 08) ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic 8

9 Supply evolution in Spain Diversified supply portfolio Spain has a diversified supply portfolio due to access to LNG producers Pipeline/GNL Origins LNG GWh Total Pipe LNG share has decreased until around 60% The highest share by origin is less than 35%, Key role of LNG in the Spanish market 9

10 Supply evolution in Spain Impact of the LNG market Expected global LNG prices influence in Spanish market LNG demand 2011/2010 (variation y/y in Mtpa) Pipe Gas Hub LNG Hub LNG as key supply in Spain and Portugal LNG as new supply in North Europe Decrease on LNG in Spain due to diversion to other markets and influence of Medgaz 10

11 Infrastructures in Spain Strategic Obliged Planning Planta Musel Source: Enagas 6 LNG Terminals, pipeline connection with Morocco, Algeria, Portugal and France and underground storages 11

12 Infrastructures in Spain LNG Terminals and International Connections LNG Terminals International Connections 100% 30% 100% Average PRODUCTION Mar-11 to Feb-12 Source: Enagas Low load factors in LNG terminals. Idle capacity in 2011 around 50% higher than the previous years Although surplus capacity exists, international connections and underground is needed 12

13 Infrastructures in Spain Underground storages CASTOR MARISMAS Source: Enagas Unified Management and Operation of underground storages by the TSO 13

14 Infrastructures in Spain Underground storages Gas stocks Operational Gas Gas extractable by mechanical means (1/3 cushion gas) Non extractable cushion gas Capacity TWh Disponibilidad Available Capacity de hueco: Serrablo /Gaviota Gaviota: 28,1 28,1 Marismas: 0,6 Yela: 1,2 Castor: 7,0 TOTAL: 28,1 36,8 The usage on UGS has varied in different years. Present filling level: 65% March 2010 filling level: 44% Asignación Initial Assignment inicial: Estratégico Strategic (20 (20 días): days) 10,5 19,3 Operativo Operational (10 (10 días): days) 8,8 9,7 Operativo Operational T3 (T3: 30d): (30 d) 3,7 3,3 TOTAL: 22,9 32,3 Subasta Auction (operativo)* (operational) * 5,2 4,5 * Supposed En caso de assigned no renuncia capacity de capacidad in 2012 is booked para 2012 Nowadays, UGS could have lost part of his value as an element of balance between winter and summer periods 14

15 Letonia Eslovaquia Austria Hungría Francia República Checa Alemania Italia Dinamarca Holanda Polonia España Bélgica Reino Unido bcm Infrastructures in Spain Underground storages. Benchmarking Underground storage vs demand Benchmarking 60 UGS Capacidad capacity AASS / / demanda (%) With the commissioning of the new capacity, is expected the ratio rises but still will be low Spain is one of the countries with less relative capacity which gives little flexibility to the system 15

16 Underground storage commercial management Regulatory context TPA Access Strategic Operational Modulation Auction Capacity assignment process Depend on the previous year demand Related with the security stocks required Assignment (*) Required security stocks (*) 20d firm demand 10d total demand 30d T4 demand Strategic Operational Auction Capacity auction process 20d firm demand Auctioned Capacity Minimum Price Rules Master Agreement (*) At present times; there has been changes through the years. 16

17 Underground storage commercial management Evolution of capacity assignment process GWh Strategic Operational Auction 17

18 Underground storage commercial management Auctions. Historic I Auction II Auction III Auction IV Auction V Auction Auction Date 10 april march march march march 2011 Auctioned Amount Final Price GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh /GWh /GWh /GWh /GWh 0 /GWh # rounds Allocated Amount GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh In last auction, there has been idle capacity 18

19 Underground storage commercial management Auctions. Arguments References prices GWh UGS coste cost AA.SS ( /GWh) Previsión spread precios ( /MWh) ATR capacitytpa prima premium total summer winter ,59 23,28 29, % % % 7,81 13,20 21, (*) % % % 3,43 11,45 14,88 Comparación diferencial invierno verano vs coste AASS % % % 3,05 24,39 27, ,9 2,6 7.8 ATR 7,0 1, , /GWh -4,1 1,2 spread TPA premium (*) Auction was closed at first round, so it is possible that part of the booked capacity is not related with commercial criteria 19

20 The role of Underground Storage in Spain s Gas System 6 th Meeting of the UNECE Gas Centre Task Force Group on Supply, Infrastructure and Markets Paris, 26 April