London summit Breaking Clean. Michael Liebreich. September 19, 2017
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1 London summit 217 Breaking Clean Michael Liebreich September 19, 217
2 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations $62bn $88bn 1 September 19, 217 $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 12. $3 billion
3 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations 5. 16GW GW $62bn $88bn 2 September 19, 217 $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 12. $3 billion
4 Plenty of good news 1 Source: ABC Australia, Independent, Bloomberg, Oilprice.com 3 September 19, 217
5 Plenty of good news 2 Source: Businessgreen, FT, Bloomberg, BBC 4 September 19, 217
6 Plenty of good news 3 Source: The Telegraph, Bloomberg, The Economist 5 September 19, 217
7 President Trump Source: White House 6 September 19, 217
8 Trump on climate December 29 If we fail to act now, it is scientifically irrefutable that there will be catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet. Donald J. Trump Donald J. Trump Jr Eric F. Trump Ivanka M. Trump Image: New York Times 7 September 19, 217
9 Trump on climate 6 November 212 The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive. Donald Trump US Presidential Candidate Image: IBTimesUK 8 September 19, 217
10 Trump on climate February/March 217 Source: White House, EPA 9 September 19, 217
11 Trump on climate 1 June 217 The United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. Donald Trump US President Image: Bloomberg 1 September 19, 217
12 Trump on climate 16 September 217 The U.S. has stated that they will not renegotiate the Paris accord, but they will try to review the terms on which they could be engaged under this agreement. Miguel Arias Cañete European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Wall Street Journal Image: European Union 11 September 19, 217
13 Trump on climate 17 September 217 The President said he's open to finding those conditions where we can remain engaged with others on what we all agree is still a challenging issue. Rex Tillerson US Secretary of State Image: US Department of Energy 12 September 19, 217
14 Trump on climate 16 September 217 There has been no change in the United States' position on the Paris agreement. Sarah Huckabee Sanders White House Press Secretary Image: Washington Examiner 13 September 19, 217
15 The world s response to Trump on climate \_( ツ )_/ Source: Emojipedia 14 September 19, 217
16 The world in 24 Source: NASA 15 September 19, 217
17 EIA global energy mix and fuel consumption forecast Global energy consumption mix IEO 24 world coal and gas consumption 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil Quadrillion Btu Natural Gas Coal Source: EIA Source: EIA 16 September 19, 217
18 Oil price history and 24 forecast Axis $/bbl title real (units) EIA 24 oil price forecast IEA WEO 24 oil price forecast Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 17 September 19, 217
19 Gas prices and U.S. imports Global gas price benchmarks, $/MMBtu 14 Net U.S. LNG imports Trillion cubic feet Japan cif Germany average border price NBP Henry Hub EIA forecast Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA 18 September 19, 217
20 Nuclear was about to undergo a renaissance Reactors in operation in 21 Reactors expected to be in operation by 225 New nuclear powers 19 September 19, 217 Source: International Atomic Energy Agency; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
21 IEA Outlook for renewables in 24 cumulative capacity Wind Solar GW installed WEO 24 forecast GW installed WEO 24 forecast Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 2 September 19, 217
22 IEA outlook for renewables in 24 annual additions Wind Solar Capacity additions per year (GW) Capacity additions per year (GW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 21 September 19, 217
23 Wind and solar costs Wind eur/mwh 1, wind LCOE 15/MWh Solar $/W c-si module price $4.1/W , 1, 1, Cumulative capacity (MW) Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 22 September 19, 217
24 H2FC vehicle targets for 22 in 24 (m vehicles) Fuel cell vehicles will probably overtake gasolinepowered cars in the next 2 to 3 years 2.5m 5m 5m Takeo Fukui, Managing Director, Research and Development, Honda Motor Co., Bloomberg News, June 5, 1999 Fuel cells will power cars with little or no waste at all. We happen to believe that fuel cell cars are the wave of the future; that fuel cells offer incredible opportunity. US President George W. Bush, February 25, 22 Source: DOE, European Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Technology Platform, Juhani Laurikko (Premia-EU) 23 September 19, 217
25 Renewable electricity generation by region, TWh per year Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latam Africa Middle East Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 24 September 19, 217
26 EU leadership from 24 Source: BBC 25 September 19, 217
27 Not everyone agreed with the orthodoxy 26 September 19, 217
28 The world in 24 Problems Climate Change Second Gulf War Aging power infrastructure (developed world) Brownouts (industrialising countries) Energy poverty (poorest countries) Rise of China Opportunities Breakthroughs in material sciences Experience curves Low-cost communications Energy deregulation Innovation/entrepreneurship Availability of capital Source: New Energy Finance New Energy Finance
29 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m 2m 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 28 September 19, 217
30 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m 2m 4 MW 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29 September 19, 217
31 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m 2m 7 MW 4 MW 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3 September 19, 217
32 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m 2m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 31 September 19, 217
33 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m MW 2m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32 September 19, 217
34 Solar cost information 24-style Source: A. J. Nozik, NREL 33 September 19, 217
35 New Energy Finance: the Thesis Fundamental reengineering of the world s energy industry around low carbon solutions and architecture Will require trillions of dollars Will take decades Will be funded mainly by world s capital markets Source: New Energy Finance 28 New Energy Finance
36 The world today Image: NASA 35 September 19, 217
37 Oil price Axis $/bbl title real (units) EIA 24 oil price forecast IEA WEO 24 oil price forecast Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA 36 September 19, 217
38 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37 September 19, 217
39 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 38 September 19, 217
40 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 39 September 19, 217
41 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4 September 19, 217
42 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 41 September 19, 217
43 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 42 September 19, 217
44 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43 September 19, 217
45 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 44 September 19, 217
46 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 45 September 19, 217
47 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 46 September 19, 217
48 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 47 September 19, 217
49 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 48 September 19, 217
50 Exporter Importer US -2 Projected net imports of LNG -4-6 Trillion cubic feet Actual Actual Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 49 September 19, 217
51 Gas prices $/MMBtu Japan cif Germany average border price NBP Henry Hub Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review 5 September 19, 217
52 Coal has peaked Coal production Mt/yr 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Coal consumption Mt/yr 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia S & Cent. America North America Note: Adjusted to standard coal equivalent Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review 51 September 19, 217
53 Wind and solar experience curves Wind Solar eur/mwh $/W 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 52 September 19, Learning Learning rate =19% = 19% Learning rate = 24-28% R² = , 1, 1, 1,, Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (estimate) Cumulative capacity (MW)
54 Unsubsidised clean energy world records 217 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Solar US$ 2.42 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power US$ 3. c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Merchant Price: Germany DONG/EnBW US$ 4.9 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar 53 September 19, 217
55 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 54 September 19, 217
56 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 55 September 19, 217
57 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 56 September 19, 217
58 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 57 September 19, 217
59 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 58 September 19, 217
60 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 59 September 19, 217
61 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual wind additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 6 September 19, 217
62 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 61 September 19, 217
63 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 62 September 19, 217
64 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 63 September 19, 217
65 IEA wind capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative wind installations GW installed Annual wind additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 64 September 19, 217
66 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 65 September 19, 217
67 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual solar additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 66 September 19, 217
68 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 67 September 19, 217
69 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual solar additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 68 September 19, 217
70 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 69 September 19, 217
71 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual solar additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 7 September 19, 217
72 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 71 September 19, 217
73 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual solar additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 72 September 19, 217
74 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Annual solar additions GW per year Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 73 September 19, 217
75 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 74 September 19, 217
76 IEA solar capacity forecast evolution GW installed 1, 1,2 1,4 1, Global cumulative solar installations GW installed Annual solar additions GW per year 1,6 8 1,4 7 1,2 6 1, Historical Note: Reference, New Policies Scenario Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 75 September 19, 217
77 Renewable energy proportion of power generation, Canada UK 25% China 5% 6% 2% Germany 29% 6% 1% 9% Japan US 3% 9% Spain 3% Italy 7% 12% 13% 25% Lowest 12% India Mid Highest No data 6% Brazil 18% South Africa 4% 6% Australia 12% 3% Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1% 3% 76 September 19, 217
78 FCV vs. BEV sales Electric vehicles (thousand units) 25 Fuel cell vehicles (thousand units) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 77 September 19, 217
79 Black Swans Fracking Fukushima Elon Musk Photos: Wikimedia Commons; DigitalGlobe; Pete Marovich/Bloomberg; KAL/Economist 78 September 19, 217
80 The price of failure PV grade silicon price index, $/kg $1.5 billion Source: Various, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Spot Survey 79 September 19, 217
81 The price of failure $48 billion 8 September 19, 217
82 Coal bankruptcies, STOWE Global Coal Index, , Investment Pte 7, 6, 5, -75% in six years 4, 3, 2, 1, September 19, 217 Image: various company sources
83 US oil and gas company bankruptcy filings, 215-present Cumulative outstanding debt of U.S. E&P companies under Chapter 11 protection ($ million) 9, $79bn of debt in Chapter 11 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Unsecured debt Secured debt 2, 1, Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Haynes and Boone LLP 82 September 19, 217
84 German utility balance sheet write-downs Cumulative ( billions) 7 $66bn of write-downs EnBW Vattenfall RWE/Innogy 2 1 E.ON/Uniper Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 83 September 19, 217
85 Saudi Arabia s forex reserves Saudi Arabia reserve foreign exchange holdings ($bn) 8 Oil Minister Al Naimi declares market share war on US shale oil $24bn decline in fx reserves Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, The Economist 84 September 19, 217
86 Some people are still calling it wrong The social cost of renewable energy should include the cost of stranding thermal power and coal assets. Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Advisor Indian Government Image: Financial Express 85 September 19, 217
87 Some people are not wrong but misleading Solar and wind is taking over the world. We hear it all the time. Only it is wrong - now.6%, %. Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center Image: Lomborg.com 86 September 19, 217
88 Sankey for the U.S. in % of primary energy is wasted almost all of it from coal, oil, gas and nuclear Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab 87 September 19, 217
89 Contribution of wind and solar 1% 9% 8% Nuclear 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% O il 2% Coal 1% % Other RE Nuclear Oil Gas Coal IEA NPS 214 Primary Energy Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 88 September 19, 217.6% 2.9% 6.% 4% 16% 34% Other RE Nuclear Oil Gas Coal IEA NPS 24 Primary Energy Other RE Nuclear Oil Gas Coal IEA NPS 24 Final Energy Wind Other RE Nuclear Oil Gas Coal IEA NPS 214 Electricity Solar Wind Other RE Nuclear Oil Gas Coal IEA NPS 24 Electricity Solar Wind Other RE Nuclear Gas Coal BNEF NEO 24 Electricity
90 The world in 24 Image: NASA 89 September 19, 217
91 Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Global cumulative installed capacity: 216 Small-scale Utility-scale PV PV 2% 3% Onshore wind 7% Hydro 17% Nuclear 5% Oil 6% 9 September 19, 217 6,719GW Gas 24% Coal 3% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 217 Global cumulative installed capacity: 24 Flexible capacity Small-scale PV 1% Utility-scale PV 22% Onshore wind 14% Coal 13% 13,919GW Gas 14% Nuclear 3% Hydro 12%
92 Solar and wind attract 6% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, Investment, by technology, ($ trillion real) Fossil fuels 14% Wind Solar $2.8 $3.3 $1.2 trillion Zerocarbon 86% Nuclear Hydro Gas $.8 $1.1 $1.4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance Finance, NEO 217 Coal $.7 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 91 September 19, 217
93 Tipping point 1: new vs new China $/MWh (real 216) CCGT U.S. $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance, NEO 217 Coal 2 Onshore wind Utility-scale PV Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance CCGT Coal 2 Onshore wind September 19, 217
94 Tipping point 1: new vs new Japan India $/MWh (real 216) Onshore wind CCGT Coal 5 Utility-scale PV Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance, NEO 217 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 93 September 19, 217
95 Tipping point 2: new vs existing Germany $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal CCGT Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance, NEO 217 China $/MWh (real 216) Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance CCGT September 19, 217
96 Poor outlook for coal in U.S., Europe and China Coal generation TWh 6, Coal generation TWh 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, U.S. 1, Europe , 4, 3, 2, 1, China India +132% SE Asia +5% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 95 September 19, 217
97 Gas plays an important role, but its not bulk energy Incremental change in gas consumption Bcm/yr 12 1,2 Incremental change in generation Δ generation (TWh) China India Rest of APAC Americas Europe ME & Africa ROW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance , Coal Gas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 96 September 19, 217
98 Demand response and batteries meet peak and balance the grid GW 1,2 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Top 5 markets in 24 China 343GW U.S. 2GW India 127GW Japan 62GW Germany 3GW 97 September 19, 217
99 We need to talk about Europe Image: NASA 98 September 19, 217
100 BNEF New Energy Outlook: Europe Cumulative Cumulative installed installed capacity capacity (GW) (GW) 1,6 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,2 1,2 1, 1, Penetration of variable renewables % 1% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % BNEF predicts 5% renewables penetration in Europe by 24 Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Other Solar thermal Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Variable renewables share Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 99 September 19, 217
101 European policy environment Stability of incentive programmes, planning processes & regulations is a big barrier to investment 8 December 25 Source: New Energy Finance 1 September 19, 217
102 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 24 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11 September 19, 217
103 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 24 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12 September 19, 217
104 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 24 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13 September 19, 217
105 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 25 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 September 19, 217
106 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 25 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15 September 19, 217
107 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 25 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 16 September 19, 217
108 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 25 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 17 September 19, 217
109 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 26 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 18 September 19, 217
110 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 26 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19 September 19, 217
111 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 26 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11 September 19, 217
112 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 26 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 111 September 19, 217
113 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 27 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 112 September 19, 217
114 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 27 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 113 September 19, 217
115 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 27 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 114 September 19, 217
116 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 27 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 115 September 19, 217
117 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 28 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 116 September 19, 217
118 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 28 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 117 September 19, 217
119 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 28 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 118 September 19, 217
120 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 28 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 119 September 19, 217
121 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 29 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12 September 19, 217
122 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 29 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 121 September 19, 217
123 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 29 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 122 September 19, 217
124 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 29 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 123 September 19, 217
125 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 21 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 124 September 19, 217
126 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 21 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 125 September 19, 217
127 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 21 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 126 September 19, 217
128 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 21 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 127 September 19, 217
129 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 211 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 128 September 19, 217
130 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 211 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 129 September 19, 217
131 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 211 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13 September 19, 217
132 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 211 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 131 September 19, 217
133 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 212 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 132 September 19, 217
134 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 212 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 133 September 19, 217
135 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 212 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 134 September 19, 217
136 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 212 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 135 September 19, 217
137 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 213 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 136 September 19, 217
138 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 213 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 137 September 19, 217
139 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 213 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 138 September 19, 217
140 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 213 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 139 September 19, 217
141 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 214 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 September 19, 217
142 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 214 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 141 September 19, 217
143 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 214 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 142 September 19, 217
144 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 214 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 143 September 19, 217
145 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 215 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 144 September 19, 217
146 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 215 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 145 September 19, 217
147 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 215 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 146 September 19, 217
148 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 215 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 147 September 19, 217
149 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 216 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 148 September 19, 217
150 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 216 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 149 September 19, 217
151 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q3 216 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15 September 19, 217
152 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q4 216 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 151 September 19, 217
153 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q1 217 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 152 September 19, 217
154 New investment in clean energy ($bn) Europe, Middle East & Africa $5bn Q2 217 Asia-Pacific Americas Note: Bubble size represents total global investment per quarter Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 153 September 19, 217
155 EU member state coal consumption 2-16 Mt coal per year Germany Poland UK Czech Rep Spain Italy Romania Netherlands Greece Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review 154 September 19, 217 Bulgaria
156 Germany CO2 emissions MtCO2e German emissions have been flat since 21 Total emissions Power sector Other Waste Agriculture Households Industry Fugitive Transport Manufacturing and construction Heat and power Source: UBA; BNEF 155 September 19, 217
157 Europe generation mix and emissions Coal (TWh) 1% zero carbon Gas (TWh) Germany Poland UK Italy Spain Czech Rep Greece Netherlands Bulgaria Romania Portugal % coal 23 range 215 1GtCO2e 1% gas Italy UK Spain Netherlands Germany France Belgium Ireland Greece Romania Portugal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions; Coal and gas generation data is for September 19, 217
158 EU ETS price projection EUR per metric ton, nominal 35 3 Historical Forecast No EU ETS Brexit EU ETS Brexit H Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 157 September 19, 217
159 Electric vehicle outlook to 24 Annual global light duty vehicle sales million vehicles % 8 43% 6 24% 4 2 8% 3% ICE sales EV sales Global light duty vehicle fleet million cars on road 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 33% 6 19% 4 7% 2 1% 2% ICE fleet EV fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO September 19, 217
160 Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast $/kwh 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 217; Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 216 U.S. dollars. 159 September 19, 217 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index average lithium-ion battery price: $19/kWh 23 average lithiumion battery price: $73/kWh BNEF observed values 19% learning rate
161 BEV model availability, 28-2 SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Fiat 5e Mitsubishi i-miev Venturi Fetish Honda Clarity BAIC EU26 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV2 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS BYD e6 Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado Smith Edison M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q5 Renault Kangoo Tesla Roadster Tesla Model S M-B SLS edrive Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO EP9 RapidE Exagon Furtive Geely Emgrand VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e ChangAn EM8 Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Mullen 7e NIO ES8* Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model X Chehejia SUV* VW I.D. LeEco LeSEE Audi R8 E-tron VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 4.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is estimate 16 September 19, miles range per charge
162 Battery availability and prices Global EV Li-ion manufacturing capacity Global EV charging points installed GWh Announced Under construction Commissioned Thousand units installed +248% +4% +1% +49% +61% Other Germany France Norway UK Netherlands Japan US China expected Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO September 19, 217
163 The big challenge Image: NASA 162 September 19, 217
164 High renewable penetrations 13 February 217 SPP 52% wind 25 December 216 Scotland 153% wind 9 July 215 Denmark 14% wind 23 March 217 CAISO 46% wind & solar November 217 ERCOT 45% wind 9 April 217 UK 56% wind & solar November 215 Spain 7% wind May 216 Germany 67% wind & solar 26 December 214 South Australia 61% wind & solar Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various 163 September 19, 217
165 Future power supply Total generation Low carbon generation Flexible generation Winter Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Summer Monday Tuesday Wednesday GW Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday = = Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 164 September 9. 19,
166 Future power supply Total generation Low carbon generation Flexible generation Winter Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Summer Monday Tuesday Wednesday GW Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday = = Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 165 September 9. 19,
167 Two visions of the future Option A: Capacity markets Central planning lite Option B: Demand-Led Telecoms deregulation lite Capacity market Storage/DR Peaking fossil Exports/Curtailment Interconnections Curtailment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday -5 Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 166 September 19, 217
168 New orthodoxy By 24 1/3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of cars and light trucks will be electric The global economy will be 1/3 more energy efficient too hard Shipping/air/freight Land-use/deforestation Petrochemicals Industry Energy access Heat Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica 167 September 19, 217
169 New orthodoxy Rebased to 1 in BNEF NEO emissions IEA NPS power sector emissions IEA NPS total emissions Prove it wrong! Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA 168 September 19, 217
170 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 169 September 19, 217
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