Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution in Denmark and Europe using the EVA Model System
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1 Aarhus University Department of Environmental Science Assessment of Health-Cost Externalities of Air Pollution in Denmark and Europe using the EVA Model System J. Brandt 1, J. D. Silver 1, J. H. Christensen 1, M. S. Andersen 1, J. H. Bønløkke 2, T. Sigsgaard 2, C. Geels 1, A. Gross 1, A. B. Hansen 1, K. M. Hansen 1, G. B. Hedegaard 1, Eigil Kaas 3 and L. M. Frohn 1 1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University 2 Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Aarhus University 3 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen
2 Overall questions How big is the problem really with air pollution? What are the most important sources to air pollution and the related health impacts? How much does it cost society (external costs)? omkostninger) Centre for Energy, Environment and Health
3 Specific questions in this study: What are the relative contributions from the 10 major emission sectors in Denmark to impacts on human health and related external costs? (what are the major Danish sources to the health impacts?) What are the total impacts due to all the emissions in Denmark? What are the impacts in Europe and Denmark from international ship traffic (all or NoS/BaS)? What are the total impacts in Europe and Denmark from all emissions in the northern hemisphere? All results covering the four questions are given as impacts/cost for the whole of Europe and for Denmark the latter being part of the first.
4 The integrated model system EVA Economic Valuation of Air pollution
5 The EVA system Economic Valuation of Air pollution Based on the impact pathway chain Main output: Estimates of health impacts External cost kg prices
6 The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, DEHM Long-range transport of air pollution in the Northern Hemisphere and/or Europe Species: photo-chemistry and particles (67 species), POPs, (PCBs, HCHs, PAHs and dioxins - 15 species), mercury (7 species), pollen, CO 2, etc. Two-way nesting capability over Europe 150 / 50 / 16,67 / 5,56 km grid resolutions 29 vertical levels up to ~16 km Model run and validation for a period of 21 years (1989 to 2009) Emission tagging capability Can be run on climate data DA OI or EKF
7 The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, DEHM
8 The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, DEHM
9 The problem of tagging emissions
10 The tagging method finding the contribution from specific sources The delta function
11 AARHUS UNIVERSITY 6. October 2011, Annual mean concentrations for the year 2000 SO2 SO4 CO PM2,5 NO3 O3
12 AARHUS UNIVERSITY 6. October 2011, Contribution from Danish emissions to air pollution levels in Europe so-called delta functions (calculated using tagging ) SO2 SO4 CO PM2,5 NO3 O3
13 AARHUS UNIVERSITY 6. October 2011, Human exposure for the year 2000 SO2 SO4 CO PM2,5 NO3 PD
14 Exposure - Response functions R c P Exposure R = Response in e.g. cases, days or episodes α = The constant for the function, typically obtained from published results of cohort studies Δc = Delta concentration, i.e. the difference between concentration fields calculated with and without the source P = The affected share of the population
15 Health effects (species) Exposure-response coefficient Valuation, Euros AARHUS Morbidity Chronic Bronchitis (PM) 8.2E-5 cases/μgm -3 (adults) 52,962 per case Restricted activity days (PM) 8.4E-4 days/ μgm -3 (adults) 131 per day Congestive heart failure (PM) 3.09E-5 cases/ μgm -3 16,409 per case Congestive heart failure (CO) 5.64E-7 cases/ μgm -3 Lung cancer (PM) 1.26E-5 cases/ μgm -3 21,152 per case Hospital admissions Respiratory (PM) 3.46E-6 cases/ μgm -3 7,931 per case Respiratory (SO 2 ) 2.04E-6 cases/ μgm -3 Cerebrovascular (PM) 8.42E-6 cases/ μgm -3 10,047 per case Asthma children (7.6 % < 16 years) Bronchodilator use (PM) 1.29E-1 cases/ μgm per case Cough (PM) 4.46E-1 days/ μgm per day Lower respiratory symptoms (PM) 1.72E-1 days/ μgm per day Asthma adults (5.9 % > 15 years) Bronchodilator use (PM) 2.72E-1 cases/ μgm per case Cough (PM) 2.8E-1 days/ μgm per day Lower respiratory symptoms (PM) 1.01E-1 days/ μgm per day Mortality Acute mortality (SO 2 ) 7.85E-6 cases/ μgm -3 2,111,888 per case Acute mortality (O 3 ) 3.27E-6*SOMO35 cases/ μgm -3 Chronic mortality (PM) 1.138E-3 YOLL/ μgm -3 (>30 years) 77,199 per YOLL Infant mortality (PM) 6.68E-6 cases/ μgm -3 (> 9 months) 3,167,832 per case
16 Assessment of health-cost externalities for the whole of Europe and Denmark from the total air pollution levels and from the international ship traffic
17 Scenarios (the tags) Sector Emission year Scenario Tag DK SNAP Combustion in energy and transformation industries, Denmark DK SNAP Non-industrial combustion plants, Denmark DK SNAP Combustion in manufacturing industry, Denmark DK SNAP Production processes, Denmark DK SNAP Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy, Denmark DK SNAP Solvents and other product use, Denmark DK SNAP Road transport, Denmark DK SNAP Other mobile sources and machinery, Denmark DK SNAP Waste treatment and disposal, Denmark DK SNAP Agriculture, Denmark DK-all (all SNAPs) 2000 All anthropogenic emissions from Denmark (SNAP 1- SNAP 10) SNAP Int. ship traffic for the year 2000, (S=2,7%)*, whole model domain (EMEP=2000) SNAP Int. ship traffic for the year 2007, NS/BS: S=1.5%*, whole domain (EMEP=2006) SNAP Int. ship traffic for the year 2011, NS/BS: S=1.0%*, whole domain (EMEP=2006) SNAP Int. ship traffic for the year 2020, NS/BS: S=0.1%*, whole model domain, (NEC-2) All 2000 All emissions (anthropogenic; GEIA/EDGAR; EMEP natural) All 2007 All emissions (anthropogenic; GEIA/EDGAR; EMEP natural) All 2011 All emissions (anthropogenic: GEIA/EDGAR, EMEP natural) All 2020 All emissions (anthropogenic: GEIA/EDGAR; NEC-2 + natural) *The North Sea (NS) and Baltic Sea (BS) is part of the Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA)
18 Total number of cases of premature deaths in Europe (scenario: All/all) Calculated using EVA for the year 2000 for the total air pollution levels A total of cases decreasing to in the year 2020 IIASA estimates cases of premature deaths in year 2000 (EU25).
19 EVA premature deaths in Denmark For Denmark we calculate chronic YOLL for the year If we divide with the factor in the CAFÉ report (10,6) we get ~4000 premature deaths per year in Denmark, which is very similar with other Danish estimates ( ). For the years 2007 and 2020, the corresponding figures are ~3400 and ~2200 for Denmark.
20 SO 2 and SO 4 2- from the international ship traffic Year 2000 Year 2020
21 Total cost (all emission species) Region/SNAP All/15 International ship traffic Northern Hemisphere BaS-NoS/15 International ship traffic Baltic Sea and North Sea All/all Total air pollution levels from all sources both natural and anthropogenic Emission year Sum Europe bn Euros Sum DK bn Euros CAFE: 2000: 790 Mia Euro i EU25.
22 International ship traffic impacts in Europe Emissions from international ship traffic are responsible for impacts on human health corresponding to 7% of the health costs in Europe in 2000 increasing to 12% in Number of premature deaths in Europe due to international ship traffic is ~ (external cost of ~50-60 bn Euros) US-EPA estimates are for US: premature deaths with related external cost of $47-$110 bn in the year 2020.
23 International ship traffic impacts in Denmark The contribution from international ship traffic to Denmark are 18% of the external cost in the year 2000 and 19% in the year 2020, even though the total external cost is decreasing from ~800 Mio Euros/year to 480 Mio Euros/year. The contribution to external cost of health effects in Denmark from International ship traffic in the BaS and NoS is 14% in both years 2000 and 2020.
24 Assessment of health-cost externalities from individual Danish emission sectors
25 Total external cost from individual emissions sectors Region/SNAP Emission year Sum Europe Mio Euros Sum DK Mio Euros DK/1 (Power plants) DK/2 (Domestic heating - wood stows) DK/3 (Industrial combustion) DK/4 (Production processes) DK/5 (Fossil fuels extraction/distr.) DK/6 (Solvents and other products use) DK/7 (Road traffic) DK/8 (Other mobile sources) DK/9 (Waste treatment) DK/10 (Agriculture) DK/sum DK/all
26 Contributions in % from DK emission sectors to the total cost related to health impacts in Europe and Denmark Region/SNAP Emission year Europe Denmark DK/1 (Power plants) DK/2 (Domestic heating - wood stows) DK/3 (Industrial combustion) DK/4 (Production processes) DK/5 (Fossil fuels extraction/distr.) DK/6 (Solvents and other products use) DK/7 (Road traffic) DK/8 (Other mobile sources) DK/9 (Waste treatment) DK/10 (Agriculture) DK/sum
27 Why does NH 3 contribute so much? The Danish NH 3 emissions constitute 48% of the total emissions from all sectors in ktonnes I the year NH 3 (gas) chemically transforms to NH 4 (particle) via (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4, NH 4 SO 4 and NH 4 NO 3. The weight of NH 4 is included in the doseresponse functions for SO 4 and NO 3 HNO 3 is already present in the atmosphere from other sources including Europe. When NH 3 is emitted it reacts with HNO 3 to form NH 4 NO 3. HNO 3 deposits relatively fast (zero surface resistance) compared to NH 4 NO 3. This increases the atmospheric concentration of NO 3 in particle form. SO 4 is not increased in it self, but the particle mass from NH 4 is included in the mass for the SO 4 doses-response function.
28 Contribution from all Danish sectors Emissions in Denmark courses health effects corresponding to a cost of 4.9 bn Euros/year. Out of this, the effects in Denmark from Danish sources correspond to 0.8 bn Euros/year. The total impacts in Denmark from all air pollution sources correspond to 4.5 bn Euros/year.
29 Main contributions from Danish emission sectors (year 2000) In Denmark the impacts from the international ship traffic (18%) are in the same order of magnitude as the impacts from Danish road traffic (19%) and the domestic heating - wood stows (16%) (in percent of external costs)
30 Changes in the Danish emissions since 2000 For many sectors we see a decrease in the emissions since year E.g. the ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector is reduced by 17% from year 2000 to The emissions from the major power plants are reduced significantly since year 2000 (sulphur-dioxide with 60 %, nitrogen-dioxides with 50 %, primary particles with 27 %). The emissions from road traffic are also reduced significantly since year 2000 (sulphur-dioxide with 78 %, nitrogen-dioxides with 41 % and primary particles with 37 %), The emissions from wood stows have increased significantly. A more updated assessment for e.g. the year 2010 will give another distribution between the emission sectors, where the relative contribution from wood stows will be much larger.
31 Wood consumption in Denmark since 1990 Source: WOODUSE-rapporten, Olesen et al., 2010
32 Discussion The major uncertainties are related to the uncertainty of the emission inventories (up to +/- 30%, depending of sector), And the uncertainties related to the health impacts. There is a very clear relationship between the concentration of particles (total PM2.5) and the health impacts. This has been found in many and big international investigations. However, the studies does not give us the possibility to distinguish between the impacts from the different chemical species in the particles. The hypothesis is that particles are carriers of other toxic species into the respiratory system and that it is not the particles themselves that gives the greatest health impacts.
33 Discussion These species are metals (e.g. from car breaks), PAHs (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons) and POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutants). These species shares the same sources as the particles involved in this study and the health impacts are probably included due to their correlation with the included species. In our study, we also made a sensitivity study putting greater weight to the primary particles (e.g. BC and OC). than to the secondary formed particles. The results, however, did not change our overall results. In the EVA system, we therefore assume the same health impacts from all types of particles.
34 Overall conclusions Air pollution (still) constitutes a serious problem to human health and that the related external costs are considerable. The main objective of this work was to show that the EVA system can be used to find the anthropogenic activities and emission sources in and around Denmark that give the largest contribution to human health impacts. The related external costs found in this work can be used to directly compare the contributions from the different emission sectors, potentially as a basis for decision making on regulation and emission reduction. The major immediate and visible emission sources (e.g. power plants and road traffic) do not always constitute the most significant problems related to human health. Other less obvious sources can cause significant impacts on nature and human health. Therefore it is important to make an overall screening of all emission sectors or emission sources in order to create a scientific basis for sound political decisions.
35 Thanks for your attention Contact: Jørgen Brandt Further information, see CEEH report No. 3 ( The present study is a part of the research of the Center for Energy, Environment and Health, financed by The Danish Strategic Research Program on Sustainable Energy under contract no
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