2016 Fall Reliability Conference MRO

Transcription

1 2016 Fall Reliability Conference MRO CAISO s Coordination, Tracking, and Monitoring Distributed Energy Resources Amber Motley; Manager, Short Term Forecasting November 2 nd, 2016

2 California ISO Overview Nonprofit public benefit corporation Part of Western Electricity Coordinating Council: 14 states, British Columbia, Alberta and parts of Mexico 71,000 MW of power plant capacity 50,270 MW record peak demand (July 24, 2006) 26,014 circuit-miles of transmission lines ISO is governed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which has jurisdiction over transmission lines that cross state borders. Copyright 2016 California ISO

3 ISO Vision: What we can do to ensure grid reliability and efficiency while leading the transition to a low carbon grid Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 3

4 Power industry transformation Wind Unpredictable Output 4768 MW Peak April 12, MW Installed Capacity Solar Thermal / Photo Voltaic Semi Predictable Output 8,545 MW Peak September 14, 2016* 8,843 MW Installed Capacity *April 24, 2016 simultaneous wind and solar exceeded 10,000MW Roof Top Solar Semi Predictable Output Behind the meter Residential 4,600 MW Estimated Capacity Main Drivers: California RPS GHG reduction Once-through-Cooled plants retirement Goals: Higher expectation of reliability Higher expectation of security Smart Grid Situational awareness through Visualization Copyright 2016 California ISO

5 5,000 MW of additional transmission-connected renewables by 2020 (predominately Solar PV) (IOU data through 2017 and RPS Calculator data ) Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 5

6 MW Behind the meter solar PV build-out through ,000 Estimated Behind the Meter Solar PV Build-out through ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, BTM Solar PV 3,695 4,903 5,976 7,054 8,146 9,309 10,385 Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 6

7 Oversupply and ramping: A new challenge as more renewables are integrated into the grid Typical Spring Day ISO has already seen the need to curtail generation Oversupply may lead to curtailment because of dispatch limitations on some resources, such as o geothermal o nuclear o small hydro o combined heat and power Operational requirements include o o o minimum gas necessary to provide ramping necessary ancillary services load following Net Load 11,663 MW on May 15, 2016 Actual 3-hour ramp 10,892 MW on February 1, 2016 Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 7

8 COORDINATION Page 8

9 What can we do with that all excess supply? Target energy efficiency Increase storage and demand response Decarbonize transportation fuels Enable economic dispatch of renewables Retrofit existing power plants Align time-of-use rates with system conditions Page 9

10 High-DER requires rethinking distribution system operation and T-D interface coordination Diverse end-use devices & resources with diverse owners/operators will dramatically affect just about everything: o Net end-use load shapes, peak demands, total energy o Direction of energy flows, voltage variability, phase balance o Variability & predictability of net loads & grid conditions o Retail kwh volumes & traditional revenue streams High DER penetration has impacts in two directions: From distribution to transmission: DER autonomous behavior & service provision to the DSO affects the transmission grid => need for accurate RT forecasting and local management of DER variability From transmission to distribution: ISO market sees DER at T-D substations, has no visibility to distribution grid conditions or impacts Result => need new coordination framework between ISO, DSO and DER aggregators and operators Page 10

11 We must understand components (boxes) & structures (arrows) to anticipate system qualities. Relationships of red boxes are crucial for T-D coordination with High DER. Today the ISO and Utility DO do not exchange information or coordinate activities for real-time operation. Page 11

12 Each entity s objectives & responsibilities drive needed tools, information & procedures ISO s primary DER concern is at the T-D interface or p-node Predictability/confidence of DER responses to ISO dispatch instructions Short-term forecasts of net interchange at each T-D interface Long-term forecasts of DER.T-D impacts for transmission planning May not need to know details below T-D interface with a total DSO DSO s concern starts with reliable distribution system operation Visibility/predictability to current behavior of DER Ability to modify behavior of DER via instructions or controls as needed to maintain reliable operation Long-term forecasts of DER system impacts for distribution planning May take on much greater responsibilities as a total DSO DER provider/aggregator is concerned with business viability Ability to participate, in a non-discriminatory manner, in all markets for which it has the required performance capabilities Ability to optimize its choice of market opportunities and manage its risks of being curtailed for reasons beyond its control Page 12

13 ISO-DSO coordination leads to other considerations across the electric system Bookend A: Current Path DSO maintains current distribution utility role, with enhancements only as needed to ensure reliability with high DER volumes. Large numbers of DER and DER aggregations participate in ISO market DER engage in multiple-use applications providing services to end-use customers, DSO and wholesale market. Bookend B: Total DSO DSO expands its role to include Operation of distribution-level markets DER aggregation for wholesale market participation Optimizing local DER to provide transmission grid services Balancing supply-demand locally Manage DER variability to minimize impacts at T-D interface DSO provides a single aggregated bid to ISO at each T-D interface Multiple-use applications are simplified because DSO manages DER response to ISO dispatch Page 13

14 The choice of DSO model implicates several key power system design elements. Design Element Current Path Total DSO Market structure Distribution-level energy prices Resource/capacity adequacy Central market optimization by ISO with large numbers of participating DER Locational energy prices based on LMP plus distribution component (e.g., LMP+D) As today, based on system coincident peak plus load pocket & flexibility needs; opt-out allowed for micro-grids DSO optimizes local markets at each T-D substation; ISO market sees a single virtual resource at each T-D interface Based on value of DER services in local market, including LMP for imports/exports Layered RA framework: DSO responsible for each T-D interface area; ISO responsible to meet net interchange at each interface Grid reliability paradigm Similar to today Layered responsibilities; e.g., DSO takes load-based share of primary frequency response Multiple-use applications of DER (MUA) Regulatory framework Comparable to existing model DER subject to both ISO and DSO instructions Rules must resolve dispatch priority, multiple payment, telemetry/metering issues Federal-state jurisdictional roles similar to today Current distribution utility roles & responsibilities, enhanced for high DER DER subject only to DSO instructions, as DSO manages DER response to ISO dispatches & ancillary services provision Explore framework to enable states to regulate distribution-level markets Total DSO is similar to a balancing authority Page 14

15 TRACKING Page 15

16 Behind the Meter Solar; Where and How Much? In California Publicly Owned Utilities are required, under Senate Bill 1, to report on the progress of their solar incentive program to the California Energy Commission on a yearly basis. California Solar Statistics publishes all Investor Owned Utilities solar PV net energy metering interconnection data per CPUC decision (D.) , and all IOU data from the California Solar Initiative program per California Senate Bill 1 (SB-1). Websites:

17 Current Statistics and Charts: Solar PV Data Current Through Page 17

18 Example: Net Energy Meter Information Report Page 18

19 CAISO has several market participation models for DER. Demand Response ( Proxy Demand Resource or PDR) May incorporate behind-the-meter (BTM) devices such as energy storage, but can only reduce load, cannot inject energy to the grid Relies on baselines to measure performance Allows sub-metering of BTM storage device for DR measurement Visible to CAISO only when it bids in and is dispatched Future: CAISO ESDER2 initiative developing rules for bi-directional dispatch and provision of regulation service Non-Generator Resource (NGR) Designed for a resource like storage that will consume or inject energy at different times; can provide regulation service Visible to CAISO and settled 24x7 (comparable to a generator) Does not use baselines Distributed Energy Resource Provider (DERP) Allows aggregator to create a virtual resource of mixed DER types Resource will utilize NGR model Page 19

20 MONITORING

21 Why Does Cloud Cover Play a Bigger Role in Load Forecasting now? Before: Cloud cover was fully inter-related to temperatures. Clouds come over = Temperatures Reduce Now: Clouds Come Over = Temperatures Reduce = Load Increases Note: We are finding in this summer s operations with approximately 5,000 MWs of BTM Solar that there is a temperature that occurs where the effect of the clouds coming over does not raise the forecast but still lowers it like it did prior to BTM Solar. Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 21

22 Estimated Percentage of Behind the Meter Solar compared to Total Load Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 CAISO Total April % 7% 19% 11% May % 8% 22% 11% June % 5% 15% 8% July % 5% 15% 8% August % 6% 16% 9% Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 22

23 CAISO seasonal load pattern 38,000 CAISO Seasonal Load Pattern ,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18, Fall Spring Summer Winter Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 23

24 Area 1 Season Shape Differences Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 24

25 Area 2 Season Shape Differences Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 25

26 Area 3 Season Shape Differences Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 26

27 Weekend Effect: Sunny Vs. Cloudy 12% drop in load Area Date Day of Week Temp Sunny or Cloudy? 7-May Saturday 55/65 Cloudy 9-Apr Saturday 58/64 Cloudy 30-Apr Saturday 55/79 Sunny 16-Apr Saturday 49/80 Sunny C 7-May C 9-Apr S 30-Apr S 16-Apr Weekday Effect: Sunny vs Cloudy 8% drop in load Date Day of Week Temp Sunny or Cloudy? 28-Apr Thursday 50/73 Sunny 5-May Thursday 57/68 Cloudy S 4/28/2016 C 5/5/2016 Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 27

28 Friday Effect: Sunny vs. Cloudy Area % drop in load Date Day of Week Temp Sunny or Cloudy? 1-Apr Friday 50/77 Sunny 8-Apr Friday 58/62 Cloudy /1/2016 4/8/2016 Weekday (M-Th) Effect: Sunny vs. Cloudy 11% drop in load Date Day of Week Temp Sunny or Cloudy? 23-Mar Wednesday 52/75 Sunny 7-Apr Thursday 63/70 Cloudy S 3/23/2016 C 4/7/2016 Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 28

29 Area Weekday Effect: Sunny vs. Cloudy Date Day of Week Temp Sunny or Cloudy? 23-Mar Wednesday 40/73 Sunny 15% drop in load 24-Mar Thursday 42/77 Sunny 7-Apr Thursday 58/64 Cloudy (but not in AM) S 3/24/2016 C 4/7/2016 S 23-Mar Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 4

30 September 19 th, 2016 Real Time Satellite Page 30

31 September 19 th, 2016 Temperature Burbank, CA LA, CA (CQT) Page 31

32 Load Shape Effect Copyright 2016 California ISO Page 32

33 CAISO Needs Going Forward Load Forecast Supply Resource DER (SRDER) (Distribution resources, including DR bid into the market) Load Modifying DER (LMDER) (Distribution resources, including DR, that are outside of our market. This includes behind the meter resources) Need for gross and net load forecast with components broken out: Actual Load = Gross Load SRDER - LMDER. Visibility (Load Forecast) Within 3 days of trade date, provide aggregated 5 minute load impact (Ex Post) for each day. (SC Metered entities provide metered data at T+48B) On a monthly basis provide the installed capacity broken by technology. On a daily basis provide next day hourly (Ex Ante) forecasted output for each PNode broken by technology type (i.e. solar, DR, Storage). Within 3 days of trade date, provide actual 5minute load impact (Ex Post) in aggregate for each day. If estimated numbers are provided, true up due XX days. For weekends, use WECC trading schedule (i.e. provide data on Friday for Saturday, Sunday and Monday). Copyright 2016 California ISO

34 Online Resources Regional Integration Resources on the ISO Website Regional Energy Market webpage Stakeholder Processes webpage ISO Public Calendar Other ways to stay informed: Download ISO Today App Follow us on Twitter and Facebook Subscribe to ISO Market Notices Page 34

35 THANK YOU Page 35