Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics)
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1 Photovoltaic Solar: Market and Technology Trends (Industrial Application of Organic Photonics) June 24, 2008 Fachri Atamny
2 Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues - Market growth drivers - Market size, segments, and growth Photovoltaic Solar Technologies - Trends, Changes and Disruptions Industrial Applications of organic Photonics - SC vs. Displays vs. Solar Page Fachri Atamny
3 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Primary Driver: Energy demand: : 13 terawatts : 18 terawatts : 26 terawatts Secondary Drivers (most are result of the primary driver: energy demand) Environmental issues (global worming / climate changes, CO 2 reduction/penalties) Oil Price (30 $ > 100$) Natural Gas Price Coal Price National Security (energy security concerns) Politics: Subsidy, feed in tariff (artificial market) Grid Parity (real market) Page Fachri Atamny
4 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Energy Demand: World energy consumption '200 History Projection 1' terawatts (2007) Quadrillion Btu 1' terawatts (2030) 26 terawatts (2050) Projection: assumption that 1.9% growth in energy consumption p.a. 1 terawatts 1000 Nuclear Reactors Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page Fachri Atamny
5 Market size, growth, and segments Energy Demand by Segmentation Electrical Power 54% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% Transportation 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Thermal 19% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Quadrillion Btus 58% Electricity % Transportation Electr ical Power Tr anspor tation Ther mal 15% Thermal Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page Fachri Atamny
6 Market size, growth, and segments Energy Total Market Size: Electricity [%] Coal 40.3 gas 19.7 Oil 6.6 Hydro 16 Nuclear 15.2 New renewable 2.2 Total [%] % 31% Hydro 16% Nuclear 15% New renewable 2% Coal 40% 2004 only ~0.06% of electricity generated worldwide was from PV solar. Oil 7% gas 20% Source: Credite Suisse, November Total Electricity Production Mix 2005; CLSA, Solar Maximum, May EIA, EPA, International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page Fachri Atamny
7 Market size, growth, and segments Electricity World Market Size ca 150 GW per year GW World Electricity Market OECD Non-OECD Electricity market: TW TW TW TW TW Source: Credite Suisse, November 2007; International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page Fachri Atamny
8 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Electricity Generation from Nuclear Power Reactor Number Year [GW] Delta China India Russia South Korea Japan years old years old years old U.S.A Canada 13 Ca 10 Years are needed for planning and building a nuclear power plant 6 Source: International Energy outlook 2007, 5/2007, International Atomic Enregy, World Nuclear Association; Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. Page Fachri Atamny
9 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Environmental Issue: CO 2 Reduction CO2 level: (if NO CO 2 reduction takes place) 2007: 380 ppmv 2050: 550 ppmv 2100: 750 ppm CO 2 [ppmv] Global Temp. Rise [ C] Consequences /Remarks +2 Coral reefs die. Upper limit. Serious for humans There is no natural destruction mechanism for carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Unlike the ozone depletion, it will not heal by itself through chemical processes. The time needed for 500 to 600 ppmv of CO2 to decay back o 300 ppmv is between 500 and 5000 years. The clean, carbon-free energy needed to stabilize CO2 level at 550 ppmv in 2050 is terawatts Source: Engineering & Science 2/2007, World Energy Assessment Overview 2004, UNDP. Page Fachri Atamny
10 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Oil Price Development US$/bbl st Gulf war Asia Crisis Reference case World Oil Prices in Three Cases Demand Recovery High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price History Projections Oil Price $ * US$/bbl OPEC crisis Iran/Iraq war 1 st Gulf war Asia crisis Iraq war begins Afghanistan war begins Demand recovery already $100 (!) * $95 per barrel on a nominal basis. Source: Page International Energy Fachri outlook Atamny 2007, 5/2007, Energy Information Administration, U.S. department of Energy. The Council of the European Union. bbl=barrel
11 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Coal Price Development US$/metric ton $ % of the Electricity is generated using coal The price per metric ton for coal out of Newcastle, Australia, is a key benchmark for the Asian market. 20 Increase of coal price leads to increase of Electricity price Source: Page 11 Photon Consulting, Fachri 3/2008; Atamny Wall Street Journal;
12 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers: Energy Demand Natural Gas Price Development 10 LNG-Japan NG-EU NG US 20% US$/million Btu of the Electricity is generated using gas. Increase of gas price leads to increase of US$/million Btu = cost + insurance + freight Electricity price Page Fachri Atamny Source: natural gas week
13 Solar Cell Market Growth Drivers Conclusions: Market Drivers Market is there: 13 TW (2007); 18 TW (2030); 26 TW (2050) To Dos - Create real market by achieving grid-parity to be competitive with conventional energy sources. Page Fachri Atamny Typical electricity generation costs Solar (photovoltaic) Solar thermal Hydro Wind - offshore Geothermal Nuclear Wind - onshore Coal Natural gas
14 Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues - Market growth drivers - Market size, segments, and growth Photovoltaic Solar Technologies - Trends, Changes and Disruptions Industrial Applications of organic Photonics - SC vs. Displays vs. Solar Page Fachri Atamny
15 PV Solar Market Size and Growth : Summary Focus on: 7'729; 18% 546; 1% 139; 0% Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa - EU: 61% - DE, SP, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal 80; 19% 26'449; 62% - Asia: 18% - Japan, China, S-Korea, India - N-America: 19% -US - Middle East 1% - Dubai, Oman, Abu Dhabi Page Fachri Atamny
16 Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues - Market growth drivers - Market size, segments, and growth Photovoltaic Solar Technologies - Trends, Changes and Disruptions Industrial Applications of organic Photonics - SC vs. Displays vs. Solar Page Fachri Atamny
17 Photovoltaic Solar Technologies Technology Trends, Changes & Disruptions Inorganic PV Bulk Thin Film Silicon (Si) Ga / As Si CdTe CIS Single Crystal Wafer Multi-Crystal Wafer Ribbon Silicon Wafer Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Amorphous (a-si) Tandem (a-si/uc-si) CdTe CIS CIGS Highest Efficiency Highest Material Costs Rigid Lowest Invest Costs Medium Efficiency Medium Material Costs Rigid & Flexible Medium Invest Costs Organic PV Thin Film Dye Sensitized Full Organic Hybrid Liquid electrolyte Gel electrolyte Solid-state electrolyte Organic Organic* Organic Fullerene** Organic - Inorganic Lowest Efficiency Lowest Material Costs Rigid & Flexible Lowest Invest Costs * Organic includes organic molecules as well as polymers. Organic Organic means that both the donor and the acceptor are organic based materials. ** The polymer or the organic molecule acts as donor and fullerene derivates molecules acts as acceptors. Source: Oerlikon Page Fachri Atamny
18 Photovoltaic Solar Environment and Issues: Outline Solar Cell Market Environment and Issues - Market growth drivers - Market size, segments, and growth Photovoltaic Solar Technologies - Trends, Changes and Disruptions Industrial Applications of organic Photonics - SC vs. Displays vs. Solar Page Fachri Atamny
19 Semi, Displays, Solar: Complexity vs. Device Size Complexity TFT SC Display Solar OTFT SC DS Display Solar Device Size Page Fachri Atamny
20 Information & Data Displaying Technology Principle - Stone - Leather - paper/ Plastic - Film, Slide etc - CRT -LCD -PDP -OLED Mechanical Chemical Electronic inorganic Organic Electronic Up-time Up Yield Up Throughput Up Automation Up Manuf. Steps Down MP Complexity Down Equipment $ Down Consumable Down Footprint Down Utilization Up Engineering Task Engineering Page Fachri Atamny
21 Dye Sensitized Cells: Production Volumes & Planned Capacities Company Country Semiconductor G24 Innovation Production End 2006 Capacity End 2006 Capacity End 2007 Capacity End 2008 Capacity End 2009 Capacity End 2010 UK TiO 2 /dye <200 (200) (200) Orionsolar PV Is TiO 2 /dye (5) (10) (25) Solar Technol Greece TiO 2 /dye Peccell Technol Japan TiO 2 /dye Comparison: Page Fachri Atamny Source: Sun & Wind Energy 1/2007; Capacity=MWp
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