What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost Kansas?

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1 $ What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost Kansas? $32 Billion Gross State Product Loss from 2017 to ,512 Lost Jobs or Job Equivalents 1 per Year $17 Billion in Total Compliance Costs $1,760 Drop in Average Household Consumption per Year $1 Billion More for Residents to Own/Operate Their Vehicles Statewide (2017 to 2040) 1 Total job equivalents equal total labor income change divided by the average annual income per job. Updated 8/15. Expensive New Ozone Regulation Will Put the Squeeze on Kansas The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA) new ozone regulation could be the most expensive ever issued on the American public, costing the nation $140 billion annually, 2 according to a new analysis (updated in August 2015) by NERA Economic Consulting. This regulation will make it harder to get the necessary permits to manufacture goods and build critical infrastructure like roads and highways in Kansas, while increasing the cost of energy for every business and household in the state. The picture gets even worse for the counties in the red and orange in the maps in figure 1. In these areas, manufacturers won t be able to expand without a reduction of emissions or shutdown of operations from other plants in the area. Plans for new plants and expansion at existing plants will be shelved. Federal highway funds could freeze and economic growth could grind to a halt. Figure 1: Projected Nonattainment with a 65 Parts Per Billion (ppb) Ozone Standard Areas with monitors Unmonitored but likely to exceed 65 ppb CA OR Projected Nonattainment in Kansas (65 ppb) WA NV ID Projected 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR WI IL MI IN MI TN KY OH WV SC NC VA NY PA NJ MD DE DC VT NH MA RI CT ME MS AL GA 2 This estimate only accounts for the costs and related economic impacts of bringing the country into attainment with a 65 pbb ozone standard. It does not account for any additional costs incurred by businesses complying with maintenance requirements for attainment areas. This estimate also does not account for any potential curtailment of energy production in nonattainment areas. In NERA s July 2014 report measuring a 60 ppb ozone standard, they found that a significant curtailment of natural gas production in nonattainment areas could further reduce GDP by $90 billion per year and cost an additional 1.4 million job-equivalents per year. TX LA FL Monitored CBSAs and rural counties that would be violating a 65 ppb standard Unmonitored areas that are anticipated to violate a 65 ppb standard based on spatial interpolation Projected Nonattainment in the United States (65 ppb) Based on a 3-year period, Source: URS, July 7, 2014 Source: URS

2 Johnson 78 Leavenworth 78 Linn 78 Miami 78 Wyandotte 78 Butler 77 Harvey 77 Kingman 77 Sedgwick 77 Sumner 77 Barber * 76 Chautauqua * 76 Cherokee * 76 Cowley * 76 Elk * 76 Harper * 76 Labette * 76 McPherson * 76 Marion * 76 Montgomery * 76 Pratt * 76 Reno * 76 Rice * 76 Stafford * 76 Crawford * 75 Ellsworth * 75 Greenwood * 75 Chase * 74 Cheyenne * 74 Clark * 74 Comanche * 74

3 Kiowa * 74 Doniphan 73 Jackson 73 Jefferson 73 Meade * 73 Neosho * 73 Osage 73 Seward * 73 Shawnee 73 Wabaunsee 73 Atchison * 72 Brown * 72 Douglas * 72 Franklin * 72 Lyon * 72 Morton * 72 Stevens * 72 Trego 72 Wilson * 72 Allen * 71 Anderson * 71 Barton * 71 Bourbon * 71 Coffey * 71 Decatur * 71 Edwards * 71 Ellis * 71 Finney * 71 Ford * 71 Gove * 71 Graham * 71

4 Grant * 71 Gray * 71 Greeley * 71 Hamilton * 71 Haskell * 71 Hodgeman * 71 Kearny * 71 Lane * 71 Logan * 71 Nemaha * 71 Ness * 71 Norton * 71 Osborne * 71 Pawnee * 71 Phillips * 71 Rawlins * 71 Rooks * 71 Rush * 71 Russell * 71 Scott * 71 Sheridan * 71 Sherman * 71 Smith * 71 Stanton * 71 Thomas * 71 Wallace * 71 Wichita * 71 Woodson * 71 Clay * 70 Cloud * 70 Dickinson * 70

5 Geary * 70 Jewell * 70 Lincoln * 70 Marshall * 70 Mitchell * 70 Morris * 70 Ottawa * 70 Pottawatomie 70 Republic * 70 Riley 70 Saline * 70 Washington * 70

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