Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities
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1 Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Prepared by: Jens Peter Molly, DEWI GmbH on behalf of UNIDO Global Renewable Energy Forum Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil MAY 2008 SITE ASSESSMENT. WIND TURBINE ASSESSMENT. GRID INTEGRATION. DUE DILIGENCE. KNOWLEDGE. CONSULTANCY
2 Page 1 Content: General wind energy potential Overview of the current situation Potential trends Wind systems for remote areas Future challenges of wind energy Conclusions
3 Page 2 General Wind Energy Potential
4 Page 3 General Wind Energy Potential Solar Radiation: Wh/a Wind Streams: Wh/a (2.5%) Wind Power: W Influences on the Wind: Wind Power Inst.: W = % Temperature Roughness World wide Electric Power Inst.: W Wind Power Share: 2.9% Land winds Sea winds Obstacles Orography Up-winds Fall-winds Wind Power Potential is 1,300 times larger than today s world wide electric power installation
5 Page 4 Overview of the Current Situation
6 Page 5 Wind Power in the International Electricity Generation Market
7 Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Cumulative Page 6
8 Page 7 Development of crude oil prices: Copyright TECSON
9 Page 8 Crude oil - World market price in US-$ and in Euro
10 Page 9 Costs of Electricity Generation
11 Page 10 Competitiveness of Wind Power Generation Source: D. Milborrow, Windpower Monthly, January 2008
12 Page 11 Main Wind Energy Markets
13 Page 12 Annual Installed Capacity by Region ( ) Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06
14 Page 13 Status of Global Wind Power Developmentattheend of 2007 Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06
15 Page 14 Annual Installed Wind Capacity by Countries Annual installed wind capacity in MW Rest of world Canada UK Portugal Italy France Germany India China Spain USA * Source: Press release of GWEC from 2008/02/06 BTM Consult: World Market Update 2007
16 Page 15 Offshore Application of Wind Energy
17 Page 16 Offshore Application 1,000 MW installed today, mainly in North and Baltic Sea (up to 15 km distance to the coast and not more than 20 m water depth (Denmark, United Kingdom) Largest wind farms of today have 150 MW, wind turbine size of 2 to 3 MW 3,000 MW planned in Germany until 2012 (up to 150 km distance to the coast, water depths of more than 30 m, wind turbine size of 5 to 6 MW) German wind farm size: Pilot projects limited to 80 wind turbines Bottle necks are: construction and erection ships, sea cables, wind turbines Problems expected with life time of wind turbines and access for maintenance Future development to wind turbine sizes of more than 10 MW
18 Page 17 Accumulated Installed Capacity, MW Scenario for the Accumulated Installed Capacity in Germany Offshore Scenario Onshore Scenario Year Source: WindEnergy Study 2006
19 Page 18 North Sea: Planned Offshore Wind Farms Sylt Horns Rev DK 2002 Sandbank 24 Nördlicher Grund DanTysk Butendiek Open North Sea (Borkum II) Amrumbank GlobalTech I West Nordsee Hochsee WP Ost Nordsee Bard He Dreiht Meerwind Südost/Ost Offshore 1 Alpha Ventus Delta Nordsee Helgoland Approved offshorewind farm Approved sea cable route Borkum Borkum Riffgrund West Gode Borkum Wind Riffgrund Nordergründe Riffgat Source: BSH / DEWI - Status:
20 Page 19 Example: E.ON Electrical Grid Germany Power 400 MW Total 1,280 MW, HVDC Light Cable 128 km 75 km
21 Page 20 Foundations for Off shore Wind Turbines Mass Foundation Monopile Jacket Tripod Up to 10 m Up to 20 m >20 m >20 m
22 Page 21 Jacket (REpower 5M) Tripod (Multibrid M 5000) Offshore Test Foundations
23 Page 22 3 Pile Foundation Bard VM (Bard Engineering)
24 Page 23 State of the Art of Wind Turbine Development
25 Page 24 State of the Art of Wind Turbine Development Commercial size: up to 3 MW and 90 m rotor diameter Largest rotor diameter: 127 m, in development 150 m Design: 3 bladed, pitch controlled and variable rotor speed Drive drain: with and without gearbox Generator: double fed asynchronous, synchronous with inverter system, Rotor blade materials: GFRP, CFRP and mixture of both Tower: mainly tubular but also lattice towers with up to 160 m hub height
26 Page 25 Size of Wind Turbines Source: Thomas Krogh, RISØ
27 Page 26 Size of Wind Turbines 10,0 MW 6,0 7,5 MW 140 Rotor Diameter, m Former Prototypes 600 kw 500 kw 1,5 MW 2,5 MW kw 300 kw Year
28 Page 27 Planetary compact gear with separate rotor support bearings Source: Bosch Rexroth
29 Page 28 Wind Turbine with Direct Drive Source: Manufacturer
30 Page 29 Remaining Wind Energy Potential
31 Page 30 Remaining Wind Energy Potential With only 45,000 MW wind power installation assumed in Germany in 2030, 1.4% of the German land area will be used Half of this land occupation means that 0.7% of the world s land area could be used for wind farms resulting in 10 TW power installation This would be 110 times more than today, but only 0.2% of the wind resource Today s world wide electric power plant installation is 3.2 TW (+ 2 TW until 2020)
32 Page 31 Future Scenario of Wind Energy Development
33 Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Source: BTM Consult: World Market Update 2007 Page 32
34 Page 33 Different Wind Installation Capacity Growth Predictions Install. Capacity World, MW BTM Consult 2008 BTM Consult 2006 WindEnergy 2006 Windforce 12, 2004 EWEA 2004 Year
35 Wind Energy: Overall Potential and Opportunities Page 34
36 Page 35 Market Structure and Regulations
37 Page 36 Proposal for National Targets for the use of Renewable Energies in the European Union Share of energy from renewable sources in final consumption of energy (2005) Share Renewables in the final energy demand by 2020 Share of energy from renewable sources in final consumption of energy (2005) Share Renewables in the final energy demand by 2020 Austria 23.3% 34% Latvia 34.9% 42% Belgium 2.2% 13% Lithuania 15.0% 23% Bulgaria 9.4% 16% Luxembourg 0.9% 11% Cyprus 2.9% 13% Malta 0.0% 10% Czech Republic 6.1% 13% Netherlands 2.4% 14% Denmark 17.0% 30% Poland 7.2% 15% Estonia 18.0% 25% Portugal 20.5% 31% Finland 28.5% 38% Romania 17.8% 24% France 10.3% 23% Slovak Republic 6.7% 14% Germany 5.8% 18% Slovenia 16.0% 25% Greece 6.9% 18% Spain 8.7% 20% Hungary 4.3% 13% Sweden 39.8% 49% Ireland 3.1% 16% United Kingdom 1.3% 15% Italy 5.2% 17% Source: Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, 23 March 2008
38 Page 37 Reimbursement in Cent/kWh ,36 Reimbursement for Newly Installed Wind Turbines (Status 2006) 8,36 7,94 3,30 6,47 1,65 4,64 4,82 18,22 10,89 12,98 5,76 7,33 7,22 9,70 6,50 3,20 7,30 7,05 7,30 7,05 Feed-in Tariff Price of Certificate Premium Market Price 8,20 8,20 7,30 7,30 0 Germany Spain Denmark Italy Great Britain Netherlands Portugal Austria France Greece
39 Page 38 Reimbursement for Newly Installed Wind Turbines Reimbursment for Electricity in Cent/kWh ,34 18, ,22 12,11 12,04 10,07 9,90 inflationsbereinigte Werte von : jährliche Vergütung; bis 1995 inkl. Landesförderungen ab 04/2000: Durchschnittsvergütung für 100%-Standort gemäß EEG nach 2006: 2% Inflation p.a. gemäß EZB-Ziel 9,53 9,30 9,01 9,34 9,23 8,95 8,73 8,53 8,37 8,08 7,76 7, until 03/2000 from 04/ until 07/2004 from 08/ ,16 6,87 6,59 6,32 6,05 5,80 Electricity Feed Law of 1991 EEG of 04/2000 Modified EEG of 08/
40 Page 39 Wind Diesel Systems for Remote Areas Wind Diesel Systems are of small financial volume little interest of manufacturers to deliver small and few wind turbines No capital available in remote areas local people don t have money to invest in the capital intensive wind turbines No wind turbines available small wind turbines are nearly not available on the market Development possibility governmental energy development programme and operation by large utility. After local energy development connection to the grid is an option Wind systems in remote areas are not a large market today, they only represent a large potential!
41 Page 40 Future Challenges of Wind Energy Technical design of wind turbines reduction of loads, Increase of life time, new materials & production methods Long term wind energy yield predictions reduction of economic risks Short term wind power prediction integration of wind power in the transportation and distribution grid Offshore application reliability, maintenance, foundation structure optimisation
42 Page 41 Conclusions Installation 2007 : 94,000 MW Annual Market Growth: 20% Installation 2017: 691,000 MW Wind Energy 2017: 6% of Electricity Industry: > 1,000,000 Employees Use of 0.7% of Land Area for Wind Energy: 10 TW (0.2% of resource) Wind Turbine Size: > 10 MW
43 Page 42 Thank you for your Attention
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